© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update1
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update2
La maquina del tiempo
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update3
El mundo se hace mas pequeñoAparecen nuevas tecnologías de comunicacióndramáticamente mas rápidasLas economías de escala dominan el mundo de los negociosViejas companías se estancan y muerenNuevos empresarios construyen imperiosLeyes para la defensa de la competencia vs. monopolios de facto
Titulares de un diario, que año ?
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update4
El año : …1869
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update5
La tecnología cambia.
Las leyes económicasNO.
Lección
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update6
Leyes a las que la industria esta sujeta:
Ley de Moore: la capacidad de procesamiento se duplica cada 18 meses (Intel)Capacidad de almacenamiento (ley de Kryder ?): desde 1956 la capacidad de almacenamiento se multiplico por 50 millones ! (de 2000 bits p / pulgada cuadrada a 100 billones de bits p / pulgada cuadrada) la siguiente meta : 1 Terabit por pulgada cuadrada. (Seagate)
Una visión al futuro de las Telecomunicaciones
MVD Telcom 2006
Eduardo Oscar GriffaDirector Regional de Soluciones & MarketingMU Latino América sur; Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay, Perú & Uruguay
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update8
A milestone quarter for GSM15 years and 2 billion users
GSM a major success with Ericsson leadership 2 billion GSM subscriptions - 1,000 new users per minute*
– 12 years to reach first billion – 30 months for second billion– 80% of second billion in high-growth markets
GSM paving the way for 3G and future technologies– 690 networks across more than 200 countries*
Source: GSM Association
GSM/ WCDMA the winning track – now 100 WCDMA networks
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update9
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
750 000
1 500 000
2 250 000
3 000 000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mobility changes the worldTraffic accelerates with new services
Global cellular reported subscriptions Traffic in mobile networks
High growth markets
Mature markets Voice traffic
Mobile data traffic
Mobile InternetMobile OfficeTV streaming/ video telephonyMusic and other downloads
Tera
byte
Subs
crip
tions
(mill
ion)
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update10
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
750 000
1 500 000
2 250 000
3 000 000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mobility changes the worldTraffic accelerates with new services
Global cellular reported subscriptions Traffic in mobile networks
Mobile Voice
2010
Mobile data to pass voice 2010 - fixed data passed voice 2000
Mobile data
High growth markets
Mature marketsTe
raby
te
Subs
crip
tions
(mill
ion)
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update11
0
75 000 000
150 000 000
225 000 000
300 000 000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Wireline network trafficIPTV/Internet the main traffic drivers
IPTV Assumption:50 Mn IPTV subscribers in 20114 hours/day – 5 Mbps (from 2007)
Tera
byte
Subscriber traffic in fixed access networks
Internet
IPTV
Voice
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update12
Time
BUSD
1000
2000
E- mail
GamingMusic
News & Sport
PositioningMobile - TV
Videoconference
Surfing
From Voice services toChoice of services
3G, HSPA,3G LTE
Broadband
Cameras
Migrationto All-IP, IMSO
pera
tor s
ervi
ce re
venu
es
Innov
ation
Existing forecast
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update13
Volume/year:150 Million
PC
Mobile Operator
Fixed line Operator
Operator domain
TV
Volume/year:170 Million
MobilePhones
The new communications landscape “Triple Play” and new services drive the operators
Cable TVOperators
Volume/year:900 Million
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update14
Consumershave manychoices
IMSTSS MSS
Access
IP
The new way of communicating
Voice TextImageVid
eoDrawingMusicGamesFiles
Trends
ConvergenceMobile BroadbandNetworked Media
– Mobile TV– Mobile Music– The Connected Home
Enterprise MarketService MarketMobile Handset
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update15
ConvergenceUser ServicesA unified serviceexperience regardlessof access.
DevicesMulti-access deviceswith intelligence toselect accesses.
NetworkMigration towardsan all IP networkbased on IMS.
Reliability & SecurityAlways Best ConnectedConvenience & Ease of Use
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update16
Mobile Broadband is changing the industryJust like mobile telephony once did
Add new revenue streams on existing network
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update17
Networked mediaOne common market for media and telecom industries
Fixed broadband and voice networks
Mobilebroadband and voice networks Digital content
Telecom Media
Networked media
TVGames
MusicRadio
Personalization
Video
“Everything’s networked. You want to talk to somebody or talk to another machine, you want to seemusic and video games and content and data and services”
Howard Stinger, CEO Sony
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update18
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Music download serviceVideo telephony
Multimedia/picture messagingBrowsing the internet
Positioning service (like gps)Photo editing
Share a picture while talkingE-mail
Music videos/movie trailersWalkie talkie anywhere
TV in your mobile phoneGame download service
Share a video clip while talkingPersonal homepageInformation updatesInstant product info
Young Early AdoptersTotal
Source: Consumer Lab Global 10 Survey 2005 (>13.000 respondents in ten countries)
High interest for new media servicesMusic is the most wanted service by young early adopters
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update19
USA
Austria
3MobileTV
Sweden
Italy
Source: Public Sources, October 2005
Mobile TV is happening today
France
AMERICASCanada,
Dominican Rep.Mexico
Puerto RicoUSA
EUROPEAustria, France,Germany, Italy,
Latvia, Luxembourg,Norway, Sweden,Switzerland, UK
ASIA-PACIFICAustralia,
Hong Kong,Japan, Malaysia,
New Zealand,Singapore
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update20
Ringtones, realtones, ringback tones:16% of global youth spending on music
Traditional music sales decline globally
Mobile music on the growth track
Source: mobileYouth 2005 by Wireless World Forum
2001 2003 2005
BUSD
0
15
20
Mobile
Non-Mobile
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update21
Fixed entertainment
Mobile entertainment
Wide area mobiles
Production
Automation
Work
Future step?
The Connected Homeset the scene
DLNA
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update22
Common challenges for enterprises– Cost control– Improved productivity– Enhanced customer satisfaction– Security
Trends in the market– Convergence in all aspects– Increased role of mobility– Mobile application integration– Outsourcing and hosting– Demands driven by individuals
The enterprise market
Mobilizing the enterprise
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update23
Core vs.non-core
Competence need
Operators’business ischanging
Financial pressures
Operationalinefficiencies
Business & technology complexity
Telecom services growth
Growth, Efficiency and Network evolution
Sound business opportunities for services vendors
Market situation– Increased competition– Importance of differentiation– Customer focus
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update24
”Always with you”
Personal Communications & Content center: Voice, SMS, MMS, e-mail, etc
Communication, Entertainment,Transaction & Navigation center
The mobile handsetEmbracing and embedding feature after feature
Fixed phonePager
Fax
Portable radio
MP3 player/Walkman
Mobile TV
Digital camera
Video camera
Memory stick
Game console
PDA
Credit cards
GPS
Color Screens
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update25
Current user trends
Individualization of communication
Communities and global tribalism
Connectivity for granted
Convenience and trust
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update26
Current user trend I
Use of communication and media much more personalFragmentation - from few to many servicesThe mobile phone has become a part of the individual’s “personality kit” and a way to make a statementDemand for more customization & tailored offerings
Individualization of communication
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update27
Current user trend II
People look for communityConsumers self-organize into new communitiesWe don’t know our neighbor but have friends in other time zonesThanks to technology, the time-space limitations have diminishedA move from geographically-defined communities to communities of interest
Communities and global tribalism
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update28
Current user trend III
When technology becomes ”good enough”, it looses its glamour and the user experience dominatesPeople want ”no hassle”Convenience, trust and ease of use become the dominant motivating factors among usersNeed to be customized to individual preferences with many coices available, high quality at the right price
Convenience and trust
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update29
Current user trend IV
Technology & connection taken for grantedAlways reachableAlone means ’not connected’Social connectivity totally personalizedAbility to communicate is the identity maker
Connectivity for granted
“I’m always connected – therefore I am”
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update30
Drivers for fixed broadband
Curiosity“Meet new people”“Check out exciting sites”
Escape from daily life“Think about something completely different”
Company“Computer always on”“A ‘living’ thing”
Enjoyment“For fun”“Entertainment”
Keep updated“Trends/fashion – cool sites”“Not be left behind”“First with the latest, not the last one to know”
Keeping in contact“To keep contacts alive”“Belong and not be excluded””Share feelings””I exist”
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update31
The mobile phone has become“part of your body”
Companion“Part of my body”“A friend”“My right hand”
Always with youTurned on 24/7Like your wallet or keys
Identification“The phone number is me”“Reflects who I am”PersonalizationDecoration, e.g. gadgets and coloring
Something to doA tool for killing timeEscape from feeling alone
A security deviceEmergencySafety
A multi tool“A Swiss army knife”Useful as e.g. alarm, calendar and bus card
A linkAccess to othersBe availableNot miss anything
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update32
Barriers for uptake to address
CostsToo expensive (service & terminal)
No needTried, but was not as expectedNot interesting in my life/not for meDoes not make sense
Limited contentNot enough attractive information/contentLimited version compared to the fixed Internet
Handset restrictionsSmall display & key padLimited memoryMulti tasks not possibleLow battery capacity
Service performancePerceived long waiting timeStress factor due to costsPoor coverage
Usability and usefulnessComplicated handling, e.g. clicking and scrollingAnnoying when cannot find what you are looking for
Moderator: If you try a feature and it doesn't work, what happens?Respondent: “You don't use it.”Moderator: Do you give it a second chance?Respondent: “No. First time or no good.”
Lack of critical mass No one to communicate with Don't know the capabilities of my friends’phones
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update33
But strong drivers in placeThere are benefits that make sense to the users:
ConvenienceMobilityAnytime & anywhereInstant
CuriosityInterest in trying new thingsUsing the latest technology
Time to killBoredNothing else to doLess boring than doing nothing
Best option at the momentNo access to the fixed InternetOn the move
MarketingCampaigns, discounts etc.
”I browse the mobile Internet for example when I am bored. It can be when I wait for someone, when I go to the toilet or when I have a smoke. You know, sometimes it is not that exciting to look at a faraway mountain while smoking.”
Male Professional, 30 years
Because friends/others use itNot being left behindNot first, but definitely not the last
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update34
Beyond voice – fragmented market
TV
Music
Finance
PC Games
Media
Communication
NETWORK EVOLUTION
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update36
DVB-S/T/C
Access evolution
10 kbit/s
100 kbit/s
1 Mbit/s
10 Mbit/s
100 Mbit/s
1 Gbit/s
End-userbit rate
BroadcastMobileFixed
GSM
WCDMA
LTE
HSDPAADSL
ADSL2+
Fiber
DVB-H
VDSL 2
WiMaxDVB-H
MBMS
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update37
Core evolution towards all-IP
Service Control
Fixed Access
Applications & ContentCommon support functions
IP Core
AccessLayer
ServiceLayer
Access Edge
Control &ConnectivityLayer
IMS
Soft-switch
Soft-switch
Metro Transport
MGW GGSN
SGSNBRAS
CableAccess
Fixed Wireless
Mobile Access
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update38
Service delivery evolution
Yesterday
Not enough consumer servicesComplex and slow service launchNon-standardized interfacesVertical stovepipes
Richer communication Service convergence3GPP IMS – standardized common enabler layerMass application developmentIntelligence into clientsTelecom SOA
TomorrowToday
Open environment for developersCost-efficiency Common support functionsSeveral standards
Content & ApplicationsCommon support functionService enablers
Untrusted domainWalled garden
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update39
IP, SIP e IMS
Control IMS = Las Reglas
Señalización SIP = El Mapa
Conectividad IP = Los Caminos
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update40
Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedEstado Actual
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update41
Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedPrimer Paso
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update42
Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedPrimer Paso: Softswitch e IMS
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update43
Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedSegundo Paso: Red Backbone Multiservicio común
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update44
Evolución de la Arquitectura de RedEstadío Final: Red Multiservicio Convergente
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update45
IAD
AA--SBG SBG H.248
Fixed Broadband Fixed Broadband IMS accessIMS access
Rq
802.1xRANRAN
E.g. BRAS
DSL
DSL
DSL
DSL
DSL
DSL
BroadbandBroadband accessaccess
SGCSGCSGCSGC
(P(P--CSCFCSCFSPDF)SPDF)
MPMPMPMP(A(A--BGF)BGF)
RNCRNC
BSCBSC
IuIu--psps/IP/IPGn
SGSNSGSN
Mobile access Mobile access
PP--CSCFCSCFPDFPDFGq
Gx
Mobile IMS accessMobile IMS access
SIP
Gb/ IP
WSN
AA--RACFRACF
MSAN
DSL
DSL
POTS accessPOTS access
TDM
PBX
TDM MGW MGW
TPFGGSN
H.248 (AGW)
GSMRAN
WCDMA RAN
CCS CCS H.248
ISUP
legacy interworkinglegacy interworking(with IN(with IN triggeringtriggering))
MGW MGW
SIP/H.323SIP/H.323VoIPVoIP
NN--SBG SBG
ISP/GRXISP/GRX network interworkingnetwork interworking
SGCSGC(I(I--BCF)BCF)
MPMP(I(I--BGF)BGF)
H.248
IMSIMScorecore
Mr (SIP)
H.248
RTPIPIP
HSSHSS
Cx (Diameter)
RTP
CSCFCSCF(P)(P) ((I ) I ) (S)(S)
BGCFBGCF
Mp
MRFCMRFC
BSC
MGW RNC
BSCBSC
TeSTESTES(MGCF)(MGCF)
RTP
RTP
SIPSIP ApplicationApplication ServersServers Fixed Fixed Legacy Legacy
ININ
ININ--SCPSCP
EITEITWe We
ShareShare SDSSDS EASEASMessagingMessaging
MM--MGW/MGW/SGW SGW
MSCMSC--SS
H.248
MRFPMRFPMediaMediaServersServers
BICC-CS2
RTP
MP
CCS CCS CCS CCS
TeSTESTES
IMS 2005 – 2007 (details)
IP CentrexIP Centrex
VoIPVoIP
MobileMobileLegacy Legacy
ININ
INSINS--NRGNRG
PSTN/PLMNPSTN/PLMN
PSTN/PLMNPSTN/PLMN
AGCFAGCF(P(P--CSCF)CSCF)
Presence and Group ManagementPresence and Group Management
legacy interworking legacy interworking (with IN(with IN triggeringtriggering))
OSA GWOSA GW
ConferencingConferencing
SLFSLF
MM--MGW/MGW/SGW SGW
MSCMSC--SS(MGCF)(MGCF)
H.248
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update46
© Ericsson AB 2006 Market Update47
La Industria de las Comunicaciones
Alcances y Economias de escala
El Negocio
Facilitadores
Convergencia e integraciónConsolidacionesMarcas GlobalesExcelencia Operacional
Mercados EmergentesTriple PlayDiferenciación y nuevas cadenas de valorRegulación
Arquitectura de capas, SS, IMS, IPBanda Ancha, cableada e inalámbricaPerformance E2EServicios y dispositivos multimedia