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Ece DINCASLAN European Union Energy
Security Introduction Securing Supplies - Danger of
Dependence EU Dependence On Russia Problems And Possible Solutions -
South Stream And Nabucco PPL Conclusion
The Challenges of EU energy policy
How can we ensure energy supply in the long term?
Environmental ProtectionCompetitveness Security of Supply
Innovation + Diversification + Competition
Prices Availability Emissions
Challenges of Energy Policy
Challenges
Energy Policy
CompetitivenessSecurity of Supply
Climate Protection
Europe’s energy concern was first revealed in the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Europe’s dependency on energy imports is rising gradually.
Unless Europe can make domestic energy more competitive, in the next 20 to 30 years, the Union’s energy requirements, will be met by imported products.
Reserves are concentrated in a few countries. Today, roughly half of the EU’s gas consumption comes from only three countries ‘Russia, Norway, Algeria’.
EU’s primary energy demand will probably grow 0.7% per year over the next 20 years.
Oil and gas will continue to be the dominant fuel sources with gas as the largest growth market of any fuel.
EU’s import dependency is expected to grow through 2030, from 80 to 93 per cent in the case of oil, and from 57 to 84 per cent in the case of gas.
Russia currently provides 25% of that imported gas. Its share will rise to over 30% by 2015 and drop to about 27% by 2030.
Source: Director-General for Research, Sustainable Energy Systems. “Energy corridors: European Union and Neighboring countries.” EUR 22581, 2007.
EU countries currently buy around 40 percent of their natural gas ‘primarily for electricity’ from Russia, that is the state-controlled gas monopoly Gazprom.
States in central and eastern Europe are particularly dependent on Russian-supplied gas.
Varying degrees of gas import dependency on Russia, which ranges from %100 in the case of Bulgaria, Finland, Estonia, and Romania to %0 in the case of the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.
Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport. “Energy for a Changing World.” 2007. http://ec.europa.eu/energy/demand/index_en.htm
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Oil
Solid fuels
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Source: Commission Staff Working Document. Annex to the Green Paper. A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy. What is at stake - Background document. 2006.
Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport. “EU Energy in Figures.” http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/pocketbook/doc/2007/2007_energy_en.xls
Russian energy sector contribution to GDP: approx 25%.
Russian gas exports to the EU-25: 65% of gas exported.
By 2010 about 70% of Russia’s gas supply came from Gazprom. But, increasingly Gazprom will be selling increasingly expensive gas and oil from Central Asia.
Russia44%
Norway24%
Nigeria4%
Libya2%
Egypt2% Oman
1%Other Origin
0%
Qatar2%
Algeria21%
Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy and Transport. “EU Energy in Figures.” http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/energy_transport/figures/pocketbook/doc/2007/2007_energy_en.xls.
The EU is attention alarmed by the several disruptions of supplies to Europe, in the pricing rows between Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus.
More upsetting have been successful moves by Gazprom to renege on or block foreign partners in new gas fields and emerging oil exploration.
EU is failed to develop countervailing policy strategy exactly on imports, pipelines, distribution, or diversification.
EU Conservation Plan
Diversification
Special Deals
EU Common Policy and Capabilities
The European Commission in 2006 approved a plan to cut EU energy use by 20% by 2020, a day before European leaders raised their concerns about oil and gas supplies with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
The energy saving plan will be introduced over six years. The cost of EU energy consumption may be reduced by more than 100 billion euros a year ($150 billion) by 2020 and CO2 emissions cut by 780 millions tonnes annually.
New sources in Africa (oil and gas). But, competition with Chinese and Indians.
Reconsideration of nuclear energy. But, popular opposition, especially from Germany.
Return to coal. But, environmental risks and increasing costs.
Bilateral Agreements; Large nations have a financial advantage. For example, German, Italian, and French deals with the Russians.
Disadvantaged Small states CEE states – “legacy” Poor states
EU Energy Charter - provides a multilateral framework for energy trade, transit and investments
US interest and help on TransCaspian Pipeline
Some initiatives Nabucco pipeline
No agreement on Pooling - Partnership Equitable distribution Future price caps Reserves/storage
It would run under the Caspian Sea from Türkmenbaşy to the Sangachal Terminal
where it would connect with the existing the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) from Baku to Erzurum in Turkey
which in turn would be connected to the Nabucco pipeline to Austria
thus taking natural gas from Turkmenistan to Central Europe
Nabucco and trans-Caspian – are interlinked
The projected capacity of the pipeline is 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural
gas a year
The route would bypass both Russia and Iran
Trans-Caspian Pipeline
•The Russian antagonism toward Nabucco.•the EU and United States redoubled efforts to secure energy
deals with Turkmenistan•under-sea pipeline from Turkmenistan could link up with the
Europe’s ‘great pipe hope’ Nabucco, to aid its own diversification from Russian energy dependency.
•According to the Russian Natural Resources Ministry, any gas or oil pipelines across the floor of the Caspian Sea would be
environmentally unacceptable•Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin: ‘depressed regional
demand, over-supply, as well as asserting the EU-backed Nabucco simply has no future’
•Same market with South Stream
Not one solution, but some features are clear
We need: Energy Efficiency … available at which cost?
Natural Gas, Coal … with CO2 capture & storage? Biofuels, Renewables … with lower costs, higher
availability? Nuclear Energy … safe waste management?
Fuel Cells … lower cost and technical advances? Fusion … maybe, in the very long term?
Need to pursue a “Portfolio” approach for policy,technology deployment and R&D
Concluding Remarks On EU Energy Security