FEDERAL AFFAIRS ALERT POLITICAL UPDATE: 2012 ELECTIONS AND THE 113TH CONGRESS
This analysis was prepared by DLA Piper’s Government Affairs practice
Tom Boyd |Jim Blanchard | Steve Phillips |John Merrigan
Ignacio Sanchez | Mac Bernstein |Michael Castle | Sarah Donovan
Specific Topics Covered:
Tax Evan Migdail
Defense Steve Phillips / Mac Bernstein / Nat Bell
Cyber Security Sydney White / Jim Halpert
Financial Services Andrew Eskin / Tom Boyd
Health Care Mary Langowski / Steve Phillips
Campaign Finance William Minor
Energy Gary Klein
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress 1 November 12, 2012
Overall Conclusions: Presidential
Influential factors in the 2012 election
The economy, jobs and taxes
Wedge issues, e.g. the middle class vs. wealthy (the “1%”)
Independents and targeted demographics
Women, young voters, minorities (Hispanics)
Targeted messages, e.g. women’s issues, auto rescue, and
immigration
Microtargeting and turnout, turnout, turnout
Super PACs and record campaign spending to achieve status quo
Wars and foreign policy less important
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress 2 November 12, 2012
Overall Conclusions: Presidential
An Election Anomaly
In exit polls, 52% of voters said the country is on the “wrong track” (Source: CBS News Exit Poll)
President Obama's job approval rating averaged 50% or less during
2012 (Source: Gallup)
No president has ever won reelection with unemployment over 7.2%
(Reagan in 1984); current unemployment is 7.9%
Despite these challenges, President Obama won with a significant
electoral college margin
Electoral College Vote Count:
Obama 332 (50.79%* of the popular vote)
Romney 206 (47.65%* of the popular vote)
3 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
* Estimate by The Examiner, Nov. 12, 2012
Overall Conclusions: Presidential
(continued)
Obama won by:
Following precise playbook (based on audit of 2008 campaign)
Extremely effective micro targeting of electorate beginning in 2009
Focused on Blue counties/precincts
Spending $300 million to define Romney early
Heartless corporate raider, wealthy and unconnected to issues of middle class
“Severely conservative,” captive to right wing of party (Paul Ryan as VP pick), socially
conservative (“War on Women”)
Attacked “consistency” of Romney positions and auto bailout in Ohio
Romney lacked resources to respond
Maintaining a disciplined, laser-like focus on message
Focused on key Democratic constituencies: women, Hispanics, young voters and college-
educated suburbanites
Tailored message to attract white, working-class voters in swing states, e.g. auto bailout
Cut into Republicans’ swing state white voter base
Executing the best election ground game of modern era
Obama turnout machine delivered in key districts in key states
Benefiting from demographics favoring Democrats – huge shift from 1980s/1990s
4 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Election Turning Points
Obama defined Romney before he had a chance to
rehabilitate from the primaries (as Bush did with Kerry in 2004)
Refocused on key targeted messages
e.g. insurance coverage for contraception and Dream Act
regulation
Attracted independents going into election day
Debates: Obama recovered from first debate: Romney went to
“prevent defense”
Ohio: Running Chrysler ad in Toledo
“October Surprise”: Hurricane Sandy
5 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Obama - Registered Voters) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Romney - Registered Voters)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Obama - Likely Voters) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Romney - Likely Voters)
Presidential Turning Points
(continued)
6
Source: Gallup
Sept. 17: “47%”
tape released
Sept. 6: DNC
convention ends
Oct.1: Denver
debate
Oct. 5: Jobs
report with
UE <8%
Oct. 29:
Sandy hits
Oct.-Nov. 6: Early
voting/turnout
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Obama registered voters
Obama likely voters
Romney registered voters
Romney likely voters
November 12, 2012
$300M in ads
pre-convention
2012 Electoral College Votes
Source: National Journal
National Electoral College Results
270 votes
needed to win
332
Obama
206
Romney
November 12, 2012
Obama
Romne
y
Obama
Romney Barack Obama (D)
Mitt Romney (R)
Unknown
12
7
55
6 6
4
10 5
9
3
3
3
3
3
5
7
6
HI 4
38 8
6
10
6
10 10
20 11
16
18
8
9
NH 4 MA 11
CT 7 RI 4
NJ 14
DE 3 MD 10
DC 3
VT 3
29
16
4
6
15
29
20
9
11
13 5
Highlights from Presidential Election
Going into election day, Obama had 201 likely electoral votes and Romney
had 191, with 11 states and 146 Electoral College votes remaining “tossups” (Source: Real Clear Politics)
State Won in 2012
% of
Pop. Vote EC Votes Won in 2008
Colorado Obama 51 9 Obama
Florida Obama 50 29 Obama
Iowa Obama 52 6 Obama
Michigan Obama 53 16 Obama
Nevada Obama 52 6 Obama
New Hampshire Obama 52 4 Obama
North Carolina Romney 51 15 Obama
Ohio Obama 50 18 Obama
Pennsylvania Obama 52 20 Obama
Virginia Obama 51 13 Obama
Wisconsin Obama 52 10 Obama
8 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
19 9 2
19 9 6
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 8
2 0 12
9
Voter Turnout is Key
Notes: Percentages are of total ballots counted of eligible voting population
2012 turnout number is preliminary.
Source: United States Elections Project, George Mason University
58%
52%
55%
61%
62%
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
60%
November 12, 2012
Voter Turnout is Key: 2012 Presidential
Election Votes by Demographic
10 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Voted for Obama Voted for Romney
Gender Women 55% 44%
Men 45% 52%
Race
White (non-Hispanic) 39% 59%
Black 93% 6%
Hispanic 71% 27%
Education Non-College Graduate 51% 47%
College Graduate 50% 48%
Age
18 to 29 years 60% 37%
30 to 44 years 52% 45%
45 to 64 years 47% 51%
64+ years 44% 56%
Income
Less than $50,000 60% 38%
$50,000 to $100,000 46% 52%
$100,000 or more 44% 54%
Source: National Journal
November 12, 2012
11
Voter Turnout is Key (continued)
Turnout is key in Presidential year elections
Turnout has risen steadily since 2000
Based on early projections, turnout was flat between 2008
and 2012
Year Turnout
(in millions) Republican Turnout Democratic Turnout
2000 107.4 (55.3%)
2004 123.5 (60.7%) 39% 37%
2008 132.6 (62.2%) 29% 39%
2012 132 (60%)1 36% 35%
Source: United States Elections Project, George Mason University and Gallup 1 Projection
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Issue of Greatest Concern to Voters:
The Economy
Early exit polls show the top issues on voters’ minds were:
Economy 60%;
Health care 17%;
The deficit 17%; and
Foreign policy 4%
Voters described their own financial situations as:
Better off today than four years ago 24%;
Worse off 34%; and
The same 41%
More voters in swing states of Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio
and Virginia blame George W. Bush than Barack Obama for
the state of the US economy
November 12, 2012 12
Source: CNN
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Independent Expenditures in 2012
Spending by Super PACs and other independent groups will
exceed $1 billion in the 2012 election, more than three times
what outside groups spent in 2008
13
Source: Center for Responsive Politics
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Impact of Citizens United
Explosion in spending by outside groups was facilitated by the
Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision in 2010
Citizens United overturned laws prohibiting corporate expenditures
in connection with federal elections
Corporations continue to be prohibited from donating to federal
candidates and political parties (except through their PACs), but
outside groups may accept unlimited corporate donations
Such groups may not coordinate their expenditures with
candidates, but many active in 2012 were closely aligned with
particular candidates and were funded by and run by close
supporters and even family members of the candidates
Notwithstanding the new ability of corporations to give to these
groups, the largest Super PAC donors in the 2012 cycle were
individuals, including one family that gave more than $53 million
14
Source: Center for Public Integrity
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Overall Conclusions: Congressional
House: Republicans likely to lose at least 7 seats
Senate: Democrats gained 2 seats
Democrats retain control of Senate
With narrow Senate control, Democrats lack ability to overcome GOP filibusters
Republicans could gain majority in 2014
Impact of Republican retention of House majority
House rules allow Speaker to press GOP agenda (if Republican coalitions can agree on priorities)
Status quo in House enhances competing agenda with White House
Republicans will try to temper Obama’s regulatory agenda
Large initiatives (e.g. Bush tax cuts and deficit reduction) will be hotly contested
Grand Bargain possible?
President and House both pledge to hold firm on principles
Difficult negotiations ahead
15 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
16
Balance of Power in Congress
Senate
112th
Congress
113th
Congress
Democrats 531 552
Republicans 47 45
House of Representatives
112th
Congress
113th
Congress
Democrats 193 194
Republicans 242 234
TBD 7
1 Two Independents caucused with Democrats
2 Independent Angus King (ME) expected to caucus with Democrats
Note: Data as of 1pm Nov. 12, 2012
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Highlights from 2012 House Elections
Big changes before general election voting: 21 Democrats and 18
Republicans retired or ran for higher office; 6 Republican and 7
Democratic incumbents voted out in primaries (Source: Bloomberg BNA)
Republicans shrunk conservative House Democrats numbers further;
defeated at least 4 incumbents and picked up several “Blue Dog”
open seats
Democrats defeated conservatives like Joe Walsh (IL), along with
more establishment members like Charlie Bass (NH) and Judy
Biggert (IL)
Democrats won 20 of 29 “toss up” races (Source: Cook Report Rankings)
Redistricting: Texas and Florida’s final maps will be drawn in 2013
and each could result in additional Democratic seats
17 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
18
Political Equilibrium in House
Elections
1990: Democratic margin of control 50 seats
1994: Elections produce 13 seat margin of Republican control
2006/2008: Pelosi/Emanuel gain 55+ seats in Blue Dog districts
2010: GOP regains majority
2012: Status quo election
268
259
205 207 212 213
206 203
233
257
193 194
167
176
230 228 223 222
229 232
202
178
242
234
150
200
250
300
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Democrats Republicans
Note: Party divisions based on election day results; Independents counted with party caucused with. Data as of 1pm Nov. 12, 2012
Source: Office of the Clerk, House of Representatives
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Note: Some 2012
House races
have yet to be
called
Highlights from 2012 Senate Elections
Not since 1980 has one party defended so many Senate seats (23
Democratic vs. 10 Republican)
A year ago, Hotline’s Senate rankings saw a potential Republican
wave developing
Despite this, Democrats expanded Senate majority
Strong Democratic candidate recruitment
Unforced errors by Republican candidates in Missouri and Indiana
Surprise 11th hour retirement by Olympia Snowe (ME)
Scott Brown (MA) (who won in off -year election) couldn’t overcome
Democratic advantage
Democrats ran better campaigns in several key states
Continued Democratic majority gives party a power base in Congress
November 12, 2012 19 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Highlights from 2012 Senate Elections
(continued)
Democratic pickups in Indiana, Maine (Angus King likely to caucus with Democrats) and Massachusetts
Republican pickup in Nebraska
Senate scoreboard:
AZ: Flake (R) 50.4%, Carmona (D) 45.2%
FL: Nelson (D) 55.1% Mack (R) 42.4%
NE: Fischer (R) 58.2%, Kerrey (D) 41.8%
MA: Warren (D) 53.9%, Brown 46.1%
VA: Kaine (D) 52.4%, Allen (R) 47.6%
ME: King (I) 53.3%, Summers (R) 30.2%, Dill (D) 13.2%
MO: McCaskill (D) 54.7%, Akin (R) 39.2%
MT: Tester (D) 48.8%, Rehberg (R) 44.7%
ND: Heitkamp (D) 50.5%, Berg (R) 49.5%
NM: Heinrich (D) 51%, Wilson (R) 45.4%
OH: Brown (D) 50.3%, Mandel (R) 45.1%
20
Incumbents are italicized; winners in bold.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
21
Political Equilibrium in Senate
Elections
2006 election: Democrats regain control; one-vote margin
2008: Obama “change” election
2010: Anti-Obama/incumbent election; restores near parity
2012: Status quo election
57
48
45 45
50 51
49
45
51
59
53
55
43
52
55 55
50 49
51
55
49
41
47
45
40
50
60
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Democrats Republicans
Note: Independents counted with party caucused with.
Source: United States Senate
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
22
20 Democratic seats
9 in Red or “Purple” states
Alaska (Mark Begich)
Arkansas (Mark Pryor)
Colorado (Mark Udall)
Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)
Montana (Max Baucus)
New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen)
North Carolina (Kay Hagan)
South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
Virginia (Mark Warner)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
13 Republican seats
Just one in Blue or “Purple” state
Maine (Susan Collins)
Other Races to Watch
Competitive in 2008
Minnesota (Al Franken)
New Mexico (Tom Udall)
Oregon (Jeff Merkley)
Potential Retirements?
New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)
South Dakota (Tim Johnson)
Already drew top-tier opponent
Virginia (Mark Warner)
Preview: 2014 Senate Elections
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Lame Duck Session/Unfinished
Business
Possible Lame Duck agenda (top priorities):
Fiscal cliff
2013 defense authorization bill
Expiring tax cuts and extenders
Sequester/cuts
“Doc fix” and AMT patch
Other unfinished business
Cybersecurity?
Farm bill?
Russian trade agreement?
23 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Tax Overview and Outlook
Lame Duck Session – the “Fiscal Cliff”
Pending: $607 billion in tax increases and spending cuts including: (1) extension of Bush tax
cuts; (2) AMT “patch” for 2012; (3) business tax extenders; (4) “doc fix”; (5) return to pre-2001
estate tax rates; (6) expiration of payroll tax cuts; and (7) new Affordable Care Act (ACA) taxes
go into effect
Option: Republicans likely to strike deal with Obama and extend most items
Obama will resist extending Bush tax rates for wealthy: possible compromise above $250k/200k level?
Option: If left and right wings are entrenched, could (temporarily) go off cliff
Debt ceiling increase: Republicans not likely to agree without firm agreement to address long-
term debt/entitlement issues by certain date in 2013 (outline of Grand Bargain?)
Lame Duck session likely to be long and contentious
Long-term Agenda
Obama and Congress likely to meet “early and often” in 2013 on budget and tax reform
Disagreements between Obama and Republicans in Congress will make this a long and
complex negotiation
White House likely to design its proposals around Simpson-Bowles
All tax expenditures will be scrutinized to determine whether they are economically efficient,
create jobs, and grow the economy
Corporate tax rate could be reduced, possibly close to 25%
24 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Defense Overview and Outlook
Sequester: Would cut defense spending by $500 billion over 10 years
Department of Defense (DOD) would have some discretion
Program accounts would see an average funding reduction of 9.4%; some accounts could see
more (Source: OMB)
Option 1: Short-term delay of full impact, with new mix of cuts and smaller package ($100 billion
over 10 years – Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Senator Carl Levin)
Option 2: Punt to beginning of 2013
Strategic realignment: New defense strategy calls for increased focus on Asia-Pacific
Increased resources and movement of troops to region
Secretary Leon Panetta: 60% of naval assets will be based in Pacific by 2020
Afghanistan wind down: Bipartisan agreement that US forces should exit Afghanistan by 2014
Will lead to increased scrutiny on contractors
Doing more with less: Large, expensive weapons programs ripe for budget cuts
Increased defense contractor competition and pressure to achieve program objectives faster
and cheaper
More drones and special operations; troop levels cut by 100,000; revised BRAC proposal?
DOD plans new instructions for acquisition system (Better Buying Power 2.0)
25 25 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Cybersecurity Overview
Congress failed to enact cybersecurity legislation prior to adjourning for the election
Executive Order: Obama expected to issue Executive Order on critical infrastructure
cybersecurity to fill what the Administration perceives as significant gaps in current
federal policy
Order to focus on establishing baseline security standards to be implemented by federal
agencies with existing authority to regulate particular critical infrastructure sectors
Order to also include provisions to facilitate sharing of cyber-threat information between federal
government and private sector
Congress not expected to pass cybersecurity legislation during the Lame Duck
session due to the significant policy differences
Democrats favor pending Senate bill; Republican are proponents of less regulatory alternative
measure
Slim chance that a bipartisan group is able to reach agreement on bill addressing information
sharing only
Liability protections: Legislation still needed to provide liability protections for sharing
information, even if an Executive Order is issued
26 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Health Care Overview and Outlook
Short-term health care agenda
Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) physician payment formula “patch”
Expires December 31, 2012; 27% cut scheduled to take effect
$11 billion cost for one-year fix; $270 billion minimum cost for permanent fix
Fiscal Cliff: In pay-go environment, menu of existing health care offsets should Congress pursue short
or long-term fix
Potential for significant cuts in federal health program spending
Affordable Care Act (ACA) regulatory action: Several ACA-related rules expected post-election
(Essential Health Benefits, Sunshine Act, etc.)
Long-term health care agenda
Health reform: ACA has withstood legal and electoral challenges, implementation will proceed; House
GOP to continue use of oversight authority to complicate Administration’s efforts and to examine
process used to pass ACA
Medicare: Efforts at the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) and elsewhere aimed at
improved care coordination and efficiency expected to move forward; Obama has shown willingness to
negotiate on key Medicare changes such as provider payments and rural health
Medicaid: Will be part of 2012-2013 entitlement reform discussion, but fundamental changes are not
expected; Obama has proposed incremental changes, such as Medicaid/CHIP “blended rate,” rebates,
and care coordination of “dual eligible” beneficiaries
27 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Banking and Financial Services
Overview and Outlook
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act enacted in July 2010 provided for:
New Financial Stability Oversight Council, governmental resolution authority for failing institutions,
agency reorganization, new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and a Federal Insurance
Office
Tougher capital, leverage and liquidity requirements
Created new requirements for derivatives, hedge funds, private equity funds, credit rating agencies,
debit card interchange fees and corporate governance, among others
Dodd-Frank provides broad authority for regulators to define the details as part of hundreds of
rulemakings critical to implementation
Rulemakings now are in various stages: adopted, delayed, overdue and in process
House Republicans have been unable to repeal Dodd-Frank (stated goal) but have held critical
oversight hearings and sought to curtail funding
With the elections resulting in “status quo,” expect current trends to continue
Various rulemakings will continue to move along
House Republicans will continue vigilant oversight
With Elizabeth Warren (recognized intellectual founder of CFPB) in the Senate, the CFPB is likely to
be more aggressive
Unfinished business: reformation of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae
28 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Energy Overview and Outlook
Lame Duck session:
Wind energy tax credits (PTC/ITC) expire on December 31; likely extended as part of fiscal cliff
deal
Long-term agenda
Regulation of oil and gas:
Fracking: EPA considering several new regulations
Keystone pipeline: will likely be approved after completion of environmental review
Export of LNG: Several applications for export are pending; likely some will be approved
Coal regulation: EPA will likely pursue new regulations to further diminish domestic use of coal
Legislation in 2013 in several specific areas is possible
New incentives for natural gas vehicles (“T. Boone Pickens” bill)
Offshore oil and gas development reform: increase acreage available, share revenues with states
Biofuels incentives: possible modification of Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) by EPA regulation;
challenging to do through legislation.
Funding and financing assistance for renewables and electric vehicles likely to be curtailed by
House; demand will be sustained by increasing DOD purchases of wind, biofuels and other
renewables
Administration efforts to enact cap and trade mechanism; carbon regulation by EPA is more likely
29 November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
Reference Information
Historic Campaign Spending
$6 billion: Total spending for all 2012 federal elections, an increase of
13% from 2008
Slower growth than last two presidential elections: in both 2004 and 2008,
spending jumped 25% from previous cycle
Despite the increase, candidates and political parties raised about
the same or less than in past elections
For example, it was predicted that Obama’s campaign would be the first to
raise $1 billion, but he will have raised less than in 2008 (about $650
million in 2012 compared to $750 million in 2008)
Why was the total higher in 2012? Spending by so-called Super
PACs and other independent groups, funded by wealthy individuals
and corporations freed to give by the Supreme Court, made the
difference
31
Sources: Center for Responsive Politics; Bloomberg BNA.
November 12, 2012 Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress
32
Balance of Power in the States
Governors
Current Future
Democrats 20 19
Republicans 29 30
Independents 1 1
State Houses
Current Future
Democrats 15 19
Republicans 27 26
Split 7 4
Nonpartisan
(Nebraska) 1 1
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
33
2012 Governors Races
State Incumbent/
Open/Party Republican Democrat
Result
(Repub./ Dem.)
Delaware Incumbent/D Jeff Cragg Jack Markell Democrat
Indiana Open/R Mike Pence John Gregg Republican
Missouri Incumbent/D David Spence Jay Nixon Democrat
Montana Open/D Rick Hill Steve Bullock Republican
New Hampshire Open/D Ovide Lamontagne Maggie Hassan Democrat
North Carolina Open/D Patrick McCrory Walter Dalton Republican
North Dakota Incumbent/R Jack Dalrymple Ryan Taylor Republican
Utah Incumbent/R Gary Herbert Peter Cooke Republican
Vermont Incumbent/D Randy Brock Peter Shumlin Democrat
Washington Open/D Rob McKenna Jay Inslee Republican
West Virginia Incumbent/D Bill Maloney Earl Ray Tomblin Democrat
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
34
U.S. House of Representatives
Equilibrium
80
218
Reagan
Revolution ‘80
Great
Society ‘64
Watergate ‘74
Contract With
America ‘94
Republican
Margin of
Control cut
to 5 seats
in 2000
Note: Party divisions based on election day results; Independents counted with party caucused with.
Source: Office of the Clerk, House of Representatives
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
Possible GOP Leadership in House
Other leaders:
National Republican Congressional
Committee Chair: Greg Walden (OR)
Chief Deputy Whip: Pete Roskham (IL)
Republican Conference Vice Chair:
Lynn Jenkins (KS) or Martha Roby
(AL)
Republican Conference Secretary:
Gregg Harper (MS), Virginia Foxx (NC)
or Jeff Denham (CA)
Leadership Chair: may not exist unless
Pete Sessions (TX) takes
Republican Study Committee Chair:
Tom Graves (GA) or Steve Scalise
(LA)
35
House Speaker
John Boehner (OH)
House Majority Leader
Eric Cantor (VA)
House Majority Whip
Kevin McCarthy (CA)
Republican Policy Committee Chair
James Lankford (OK)
Republican Conference Chair
Tom Price (GA) or Cathy McMorris
Rodgers (WA)
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
36
US Senate Equilibrium
15
60
Reagan
Revolution ‘80 Great
Society ‘64
Watergate ‘74
Contract With
America ‘94
2000 Senate
50/50 –
Republicans
Control with
VP vote
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
37
Senate Leadership in 113th
Congress
Possible Senate Democratic Leadership
Position Democrat
Leader Harry Reid (NV)
Whip Dick Durbin (IL)
Policy Committee Chair and Conference Vice Chair Chuck Schumer (NY)
Conference Secretary Patty Murray (WA)
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kristen Gillibrand (NY)
Possible Senate Republican Leadership
Position Republican
Leader Mitch McConnell (KY)
Whip John Cornyn (TX)
Conference Chair John Barrasso (WY)
Policy Committee Chair John Thune (SD)
Conference Vice Chair Roy Blunt (MO)
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair TBD
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
38
Senators Up For Re-Election in 2014
State Incumbent Party 2008 Election Results
Alabama Jeff Sessions Republican Jeff Sessions (R) 63%, Vivian Davis Figures (D) 37%
Alaska Mark Begich Democratic Mark Begich (D) 48%, Ted Stevens (R) 47%, Other 5%
Arkansas Mark Pryor Democratic Mark Pryor (D) 80%, Rebekah Kennedy (Green) 21%
Colorado Mark Udall Democratic Mark Udall (D) 53%, Bob Schaffer (R) 43%, Other 4%
Delaware Chris Coons Democratic Joe Biden (D) 65%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 35%
Georgia Saxby Chambliss Republican Saxby Chambliss (R) 57%, Jim Martin (D) 43%
Idaho Jim Risch Republican Jim Risch (R) 58%, Larry LaRocco (D) 34%, Other 8%
Illinois Richard Durbin Democratic Richard Durbin (D) 68%, Steve Sauerberg (R) 29%, Other 3%
Iowa Tom Harkin Democratic Tom Harkin (D) 63%, Christopher Reed (R) 37%
Kansas Pat Roberts Republican Pat Roberts (R) 60%, Jim Slattery (D) 36%, Other 4%
Kentucky Mitch McConnell Republican Mitch McConnell (R) 53%, Bruce Lunsford (D) 47%
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Democratic Mary Landrieu (D) 52%, John Kennedy (R) 46%, Other 2%
Maine Susan Collins Republican Susan Collins (R) 61%, Tom Allen (D) 39%
Massachusetts John Kerry Democratic John Kerry (D) 66%, Jeff Beatty (R) 31%, Other 3%
Michigan Carl Levin Democratic Carl Levin (D) 63%, Jack Hoogendyk (R) 34%, Other 3%
Minnesota Al Franken Democratic Al Franken (D) 42%, Norm Coleman (R) 42%, Dean Barkley (MIP 15%)
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012
39
Senators Up For Re-Election in 2014
(continued)
State Incumbent Party 2008 Election Results
Mississippi Thad Cochran Republican Thad Cochran (R) 61%, Erik R. Fleming (D) 39%
Montana Max Baucus Democratic Max Baucus (D) 73%, Bob Kelleher (R) 27%
Nebraska Mike Johanns Republican Mike Johanns (R) 58%, Scott Kleeb (D) 40%, Other 2%
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%, John E. Sununu (R) 45%, Other 3%
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg Democratic Frank Lautenberg (D) 56%, Dick Zimmer (R) 42%, Other 2%
New Mexico Tom Udall Democratic Tom Udall (D) 61%, Steve Pearce (R) 39%
North Carolina Kay Hagan Democratic Kay Hagan (D) 53%, Elizabeth Dole (R) 44%, Other 3%
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe Republican Jim Inhofe (R) 57%, Andrew Rice (D) 39%, Other 4%
Oregon Jeff Merkley Democratic Jeff Merkley (D) 49%, Gordon Smith (R) 46%, Other 5%
Rhode Island Jack Reed Democratic Jack Reed (D) 73%, Robert Tingle (R) 27%
South Carolina Lindsey Graham Republican Lindsey Graham (R) 58%, Bob Conley (D) 42%
South Dakota Tim Johnson Democratic Tim Johnson (D) 63%, Joel Dykstra (R) 37%
Tennessee Lamar Alexander Republican Lamar Alexander (R) 65%, Bob Tuke (D) 32%, Other 3%
Texas John Cornyn Republican John Cornyn (R) 55%, Rick Noriega (D) 43%, Other 2%
Virginia Mark Warner Democratic Mark Warner (D) 65%, Jim Gilmore (R) 34%, Other 1%
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Democratic Jay Rockefeller (D) 64%, Jay Wolfe (R) 36%
Wyoming Mike Enzi Republican Mike Enzi (R) 76%, Chris Rothfuss (D) 24%
Political Update: 2012 Elections and the 113th Congress November 12, 2012