INTERNATIONAL FOOD
POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty
Food, Nutrition, Agriculture and the Millennium Development Goals
Joachim Von Braun
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
IICA, May 28th 2004
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Overview of Presentation
1. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) origin, concept and pitfalls
2. The role of Agriculture on MDGs
3. Challenges and disruptions on path to achieving MDGs
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Origin and concept of MDGs
Millennium Declaration Goals
Strong international commitment
Eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and one or more targets for each.
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Millennium Development Goals
1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
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Towards achieving MDGs: Trend of undernourished people
920
817780 798
616 624 635663
500
550600
650700
750800
850900
950
1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001
Mil
lio
ns
Un
de
rno
uri
sh
ed
Developing World
Developing world without China
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Problems facing MDG achievement
Theoretical problem: for efficient achievement of goals you need at least as many instruments as goals (Tinbergen)
A goal by goal approach may lead to inefficient instrument portfolios (e.g. agriculture, infrastructure neglected)
Roadmap to reach MDGs is missing
Lack of country and regional strategy
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Agriculture and MDGs
Agriculture is important in stimulating sustainable economic growth and rural employment, and it can be the cornerstone for food security and poverty reduction
Agriculture serves many of the MDGs
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MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty
Agriculture plays a crucial role in poverty and hunger eradication
Agriculture employment and undernourishment,
1996 - 2000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
> 35
20 -34
5 - 19
2.5 - 4
< 2.5
% o
f p
opu
lati
on
un
der
nou
rish
ed
Agr iculture employment as a % of total employment (%)
Source: FAO, 2003
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MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty
DIRECT EFFECTS
1. Agricultural productivity growth increases food availability and raises farm income improving consumption levels
2. Improves asset levels to enhance production and diminishes effects of shocks in the future
3. Increased production will decrease prices, improving purchasing power of the poor
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MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty
INDIRECT EFFECTS
1. Households depending on rural non-farmeconomy and agro-industrial sector will: Increase income
Lead to more diversified and resilient economies
Increase demand for agricultural products (virtuous cycle)
2. Agriculture as engine of growth across all other national economies
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MDG 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
1. Use of labor saving agricultural technology, reduces opportunity cost of farmer’s children attending school.
2. Broad economic growth will demand increasingly skilled labor, increasing returns of investing in children’s education
3. Agriculture-led economic growth should free more public resources to invest in education
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MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
Improving agricultural productivity and empowering women works both ways:
1. Women’ s principal productive activities are in agriculture in developing world. Improving agriculture institutions in which women participate will promote economic opportunities for women.
2. Gender equality is a precondition for agriculture and rural development
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MDG 4: Reduce child mortality
1. Agriculture assures food and nutrition security, decreasing child mortality
2. Women as caregivers: agricultural labor and time saving innovations will free time to care for their children
3. Dynamic agricultural sector will free resources for health spending
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MDG 5: Improve maternal health
1. Agriculture can improve the quality of diets of women, improving maternal health
2. Increasing micronutrient content in food crops, declines prevalence of micronutrient deficiency among women, making maternal mortality rates drop.
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MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
1. Good nutrition achieved though a dynamic agriculture will help mitigate impacts of HIV/AIDS
2. Improved agricultural productivity reduces risky behaviors, e.g. labor migration exposes population to new diseases.
3. Agricultural technology can create labor saving techniques for HIV affected households facing loss of labor power.
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MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
1. Agriculture is the biggest user of water. Need for an efficient and sustainable agricultural sector and the public revenues that accrue from it that will enable greater levels of public provision of safe drinking water and improved sanitation.
2. A productive and sustainable agricultural system requires less land, leaving marginal agricultural lands to other uses (forests and other critical habitats)
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MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability (Cont’d)
3. Population pressures in urban slums can be alleviated with profitable agriculture systems
4. Proper agricultural policies have the potential of allowing full costs of agricultural technologies to be considered:
• reducing the scope for excessive nutrient run-off from agriculture
• providing incentives for efficient energy use in the sector
• ecologically sustainable use of a range of technologies
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MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development
1. International agriculture institutions are ahead in terms of global partnership. MDGs could learn from this experience (e.g. CGIAR, GFAR)
2. Need for a harmonized and rationalized global agricultural trade that will benefit poor agricultural producers
3. PRSPs should target agriculture as its the economic foundation for most poor people
4. Effective agricultural development will help decrease youth unemployment.
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Challenges to MDGs?Decreasing World Cereal Stocks
World Cereal Stocks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
mil
lio
n t
on
s
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Challenges to MDGs?Increasing World Cereal Prices
Maize and Wheat International Prices
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
U$
S/T
on
Maize
Wheat
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Projections to 2015
Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and
Rural Development
Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in
Protectionism Worldwide
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Scenario:
Adverse Technology/Natural Resource
Interactions
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World Cereal Production
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1997 2015 2030 2050
mil
lio
n m
tProgressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
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Number of Malnourished Children in the World
0
40
80
120
160
200
1997 2015 2030 2050
Mil
lio
n c
hil
dre
n
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
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Contribution of Agriculture to MDGs
Direct and Indirect contribution of agriculture to MDG achievement
: strong : medium : low
1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality and empower
women4. Reduce child mortality5. Improve maternal health6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other
diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Develop a global partnership for
development