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IntroductionThis paper discusses foresight in New Zealand, first providing an overview of activity since 1968, then summarising five current government initiatives. It also describes in some detail a recent non-government initiative, StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future, which was hosted by the Sustainable Future Institute in March 2011.1
Foresight Initiatives from 1968 to TodayFuture studies initiatives reflect the time period and part of the world from which they emerge. Figure 1, which shows a timeline of future studies initiatives both in New Zealand and internationally, illustrates the events that fuelled future-thinking in the 20th century and early years of the 21st. This timeline is largely drawn from the Institute’s Report 11: A History of Future-thinking Initiatives in New Zealand, 1936–2010: Learning from the past to build a better future.
Current Government Foresight Initiatives Although New Zealand has no central framework to direct or undertake foresight work, the following are examples of current government initiatives that focus on long-term thinking.
Initiative 1: Treasury’s Statement of Long-term Fiscal PositionThe Treasury is required under the Public Finance Act 1989 (as amended in 2004) to publish at least every four years a statement on the country’s long-term fiscal position (LTFP), looking forward at least 40 years.2 These reports form the most comprehensive instruments to date for assessing New Zealand’s long-term future. The first statement was produced in 2006, with a second following in 2009. This latest statement looks at what drives government’s spending and revenue, and the major issues that will need to be addressed if the country wants to maintain or improve its living standards and public services. In 2012 the Treasury aims to canvas a broader range of society, and develop more innovative ways of exploring and communicating strategic drivers in order to publish a more useful statement in 2013.3
Wendy McGuinness is the founder and chief executive of the Sustainable Future Institute. She holds a BCom from the University of Auckland and an MBA from the University of Otago, and has also studied environmental science at Massey University. As a Fellow Chartered Accountant (FCA) specialising in risk management, Wendy has worked in both the public and private sectors. In 2004 she established the Sustainable Future Institute as a way of contributing to New Zealand’s long-term future. The Institute is a privately-funded, not-for-profit, non-partisan think tank working for the public good, contributing strategic foresight through evidence-based research and policy analysis. The main office is situated in Wellington, New Zealand.
1 See www.sustainablefuture.info
2 See http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/longterm/fiscalposition
3 Paul Rodway, Treasury, personal communication 1 December 2011.
Foresight in New ZealandPrepared for the International Conference on Strategic Foresight in National Government, held in Seoul on December 6–8, 2011.An event hosted jointly by the Korean Women's Development Institute and the Korea Institute of Public Administration, and sponsored by the Korean Presidential Council for Future and Vision.
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International New Zealand
1936 Institute of Public Administration New Zealand
RAND Corporation, considered to be the first think tank concentrating on future issues,
established to study inter-continental warfare (USA)
1948
The National Science Foundation established (USA) 1950
International Centre for Foresight established (France) 1957
NASA established (USA) 1958
‘Committee of 1985’ established to take a broader view of France’s future and its economic
goals and social problems (France)
US Airforce produced report that tried to blueprint technological characteristics of forces that would
most effectively support the Department of Defense in the 1970s (USA)
1963
Commission of the Year 2000 established (USA) 1965
Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation) published Prospectus for an Institute for the Future
providing a prototype for futures institutes
World Future Society established. It published its first edition of The Futurist in February the
following year
1966
Futuribles Group established to ‘generate a habit, the habit of forward-looking’ (France) 1967
Institute for the Future established (USA)
Urban Institute established (USA) 1968First National Development Conference held (the second was held the following year in 1969)
Future Shock published by Alvin Toffler 1970
Futures Group, an offshoot of the Institute for the Future established by Theodore Gordon 1971
1974New Zealand Energy and Research Development Committee establishedFuturist Alvin Toffler travels to New Zealand
Centre for Independent Studies established (Australia) 1976 Economic and Social Planning Taskforce
established
1977The Commission for the Future and the New Zealand Planning Council are established by the New Zealand Planning Act
The Third Wave published by Alvin Toffler 1980
Figure 1. Foresight Timeline
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International New Zealand
1936 Institute of Public Administration New Zealand
RAND Corporation, considered to be the first think tank concentrating on future issues,
established to study inter-continental warfare (USA)
1948
The National Science Foundation established (USA) 1950
International Centre for Foresight established (France) 1957
NASA established (USA) 1958
‘Committee of 1985’ established to take a broader view of France’s future and its economic
goals and social problems (France)
US Airforce produced report that tried to blueprint technological characteristics of forces that would
most effectively support the Department of Defense in the 1970s (USA)
1963
Commission of the Year 2000 established (USA) 1965
Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation) published Prospectus for an Institute for the Future
providing a prototype for futures institutes
World Future Society established. It published its first edition of The Futurist in February the
following year
1966
Futuribles Group established to ‘generate a habit, the habit of forward-looking’ (France) 1967
Institute for the Future established (USA)
Urban Institute established (USA) 1968First National Development Conference held (the second was held the following year in 1969)
Future Shock published by Alvin Toffler 1970
Futures Group, an offshoot of the Institute for the Future established by Theodore Gordon 1971
1974New Zealand Energy and Research Development Committee establishedFuturist Alvin Toffler travels to New Zealand
Centre for Independent Studies established (Australia) 1976 Economic and Social Planning Taskforce
established
1977The Commission for the Future and the New Zealand Planning Council are established by the New Zealand Planning Act
The Third Wave published by Alvin Toffler 1980
1982 New Zealand Futures Trust established
1984 Options for the Future published by James Duncan (see over)
1990 Upgrading New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage Project
1992 20/20 Group formed to project 20 years into the future
Government of Finland establishes a temporary Committee for the Future (a body which went on
to become a permanent Committee in 2000)1993
Millennium Project established (USA) 1996
1998
The Foresight ProjectBright Future: 5 Steps Ahead Initiative(e)-vision Centre for Communication, Art & Technology established
Civic Exchange think tank founded in Hong Kong 2000
2001Catching the Knowledge Wave ProjectHousehold Vision Survey
2002 Local Government: Long term plans
2003 Knowledge Wave Leadership Forum
2004Sustainable Future Institute established The New Zealand Institute established
United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (UNDESD) launched 2005
First Buckminster Fuller Challenge held to support the development and implementation of a strategy that has significant potential to solve
humanity’s most pressing problems2006
Statement of Long Term Fiscal Position (first) published by the TreasuryDigital Earth Summit on Sustainability held in Auckland For Måori Future Makers Project
2007
The SANZ/UNESCO Project launched as part of New Zealand’s contribution to the United Nations Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (UNDESD) What Matters Most to New Zealanders launched
2008FutureMakers ProjectA Measurable Goal for New Zealand
Foresight Network established as an online social networking site for futurists
2009
2025 Taskforce established, disestablished June 2011New Zealand Job Summit held New Zealand Entrepreneurial Summit held Futures Forum Established Statement of Long Term Fiscal Position (second) published by the Treasury
2010 Welfare Working Group (established by Cabinet)
2011New Zealand Productivity CommissionStrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
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Initiative 2: New Zealand Productivity Commission One instrument that may prove valuable in progressing future-thinking in New Zealand is the New Zealand Productivity Commission, an independent Crown Entity that has been operational since April 2011.4 The principal purpose of the Commission is to provide advice to the government on improving productivity in a way that is directed to supporting the overall well-being of New Zealanders. It has a mandate to conduct and publish its own research into productivity-related issues, and endeavours to look forward several decades for relevant trends in areas such as demographics and technology.5 The Commission is modelled on the Australian Productivity Commission, meaning it has a very broad area of inquiry, from industry regulation to disability services to urban water systems. Two current projects are housing affordability and international freight transport expenses. The Commission is headed by four part-time commissioners, and reports to the Minister of Finance.
Initiative 3: Welfare Working Group The Welfare Working Group was established in 2010 to undertake an expansive and fundamental review of New Zealand’s welfare system.6 The Group’s primary task is to identify ways to reduce long-term welfare dependency. In a recent publication the Group stated: ‘We consider that Employment and Support New Zealand [the Crown Entity responsible for welfare payments] should deliver work services based on a long-term investment view. It should have clear accountability based on long-term performance and outcomes (as measured by the forward liability) and it should have access to the full range of instruments to improve long-term performance’.7 This approach is described by prominent New Zealand political journalist Colin James as an ‘actuarial-investment approach’.8 The Welfare Working Group has recently recommended a wide-ranging overhaul of New Zealand’s welfare system that will be implemented over the coming years.
Initiative 4: Futures Forum The Futures Forum, which was established in 2009, is an informal open community that aims to bring greater coordination and coherency to futures work across the public sector and NGOs.9 The Forum has an on-line presence where participants are able to discuss issues of interest, and regularly hosts events with a range of expert speakers. The specific outcomes the Forum seeks to achieve are enhanced coordination of futures work and improved strategic policy capability across the public sector.10
Initiative 5: Government-funded ResearchThere are a number of long-term future-thinking projects that have been funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST), now the Ministry of Science and Innovation (MSI). Under one such project Landcare Research, a Crown Research Institute, has undertaken applied research and facilitation in futures studies for a range of clients as well as producing reports exploring New Zealand’s long-term future. FRST has also funded Creating Futures, a multi-agency interdisciplinary programme which aimed to develop innovative methods and tools for long-term policy planning. Sustainable Pathways 2 is a FRST-funded six-year programme to enable cities and regions to better plan for sustainable development. The programme also seeks to illuminate and link the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development.
Initiative 6: Local Government and Long-term PlansLocal government bodies are required to adopt a ‘sustainable development approach’ and take into account the ‘reasonably foreseeable needs of future generations’. This, combined with a requirement to produce plans that ‘provide a long-term focus’, has meant they are looking for ways to develop foresight.11 This remains a challenge, but it is one that local government is working hard to deliver on.
Developing government foresight initiatives in New Zealand is a gradual process. The Institute strongly believes that developing the capability and capacity of both central and local government institutions to address the long-term future should be a priority, and that the advent of the Statement of the Long-term Fiscal Position is a major step toward meeting this objective. The Institute is aware of a number of
4 See http://www.productivity.govt.nz
5 Murray Sherwin, New Zealand Productivity Commission, personal communication 1 December2011.
6 See http://ips.ac.nz/WelfareWorkingGroup/Index.html
7 Reducing Long-Term Benefit Dependency (2011: 18) See http://ips.ac.nz/WelfareWorkingGroup/Downloads/Final%20Report/WWG-Executive-Summary-Final-Recommendations-22-February-2011.pdf
8 Colin James, personal communication 1 December 2011.
9 http://futureforumnz.ning.com
10 Marc Rands, Futures Forum, personal communication 1 December 2011.
11 See Local Government Act 2002, s14 and s93 http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/searchquick.aspx
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countries that have engaged in strategic foresight at a national level – in particular, The Republic of Korea, Britain, China, Finland, Brazil and Singapore – and continues to look to these countries as models for embedded institutional foresight.
StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future – an Independent Public-good InitiativeThe Sustainable Future Institute’s two-day workshop StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future was the Institute’s attempt to create a space and framework within which New Zealanders could have a conversation about the kind of future they wanted for their country. The workshop was based around the Harvard Business School’s strategy mapping model, first described by Professor Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton. This model has been successfully applied in a range of contexts, including the development of national strategies, such as strengthening economic development in Brazil.12
Stage 1: Exploring the LandscapeWhile StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future took place over two days in March 2011, behind it were several years of research by the Institute and decades of work by our peers in the future-thinking community. One of the Institute’s major projects has been to locate itself within the rich body of work and knowledge that exists in New Zealand, and in February it published its eleventh report, entitled A History of Future Thinking Initiatives in New Zealand 1936-2010: Learning from the past to build a better future. Eighteen initiatives were reviewed in an effort to learn lessons from the past and to develop a useful model for future initiatives, to provide greater access to existing knowledge, and to provide a repository for the knowledge that had been accumulated. Figure 2 lists the 18 initiatives, and identifies those that are on-going.13
Figure 2. Review of 18 Future Thinking Initiatives in New Zealand
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
2 The Commission for the Future, 1977–1982
3 Upgrading New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage, 1990–1991
4 20/20 Group, 1992–1994
5 The Foresight Project, 1998–1999
6 Bright Future: 5 Steps Ahead, 1998–1999
7 (e)-vision Centre for Communication, Art & Technology, 1998–2004
8 Catching the Knowledge Wave Project, 2001
9 Household Vision Survey, 2001–2002
10 Knowledge Wave Leadership Forum, 2003
12 For Māori Future Makers, 2006–2007
13 The SANZ/UNESCO Project, 2007–ongoing
14 What Matters Most to New Zealanders, 2007–ongoing
15 FutureMakers Project, 2008–ongoing
16 A Measurable Goal for New Zealand, 2008–ongoing
17 Job Summit, 2009–ongoing
18 New Zealand Entrepreneurial Summit, 2009
11 The New Zealand Institute, 2004–ongoing
Fully Private
Government Funded and Initiated
Received Government Funding
1 Institute of Public Administration New Zealand, 1936–ongoing
12 See The Execution Premium, by Professor Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton (2008: 80)
13 A number of criteria had to be met for initiatives to be included in the study: they had to be New Zealand-wide; integrated across a broad range of themes and groups in society; show evidence of two-way communication with participants and the incorporation of ideas into outcomes; demonstrate a long-term perspective, and be non-partisan.
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Funding for individual projects was derived from both public and private sources, and they were initiated both within and outside government. However, it is significant that the only government-wide, government-funded initiative was the Commission for the Future, which existed from 1976 to 1982. (The Institute’s own work was not included in the analysis owing to the difficulty of ensuring objectivity.)
The Institute’s review of the 18 initiatives evaluated: the inputs, which related to a clear definition of each initiative’s purpose and goals; the process, the means by which the purpose was achieved; the outputs, the products that resulted from the process; and the outcomes, the ultimate effects of the work. To present this information succinctly a ‘four-step model for planning future-thinking initiatives’ was developed (see Figure 3). The model also shows the conclusions drawn from the study, which take the form of lessons learnt.
Figure 3. Four-step Model for Planning Future-thinking Initiatives
INPUT
What is the purpose?
OUTPUT
What are the products?
Lesson 1: set clear goals
Lesson 2: establish context
and inter-
Lesson 3: gain funding security
Lesson 4: engagement and support Lesson 5:
commit to being transparent
Lesson 6: develop linkages
Lesson 7: invite government involvement
Lesson 8: report and measure progress
Lesson 10: engage with a broad
of society
Lesson 9: encourage quality of outputs
Lesson 11: build on, learn from and preserve past
Lesson 12: deliver on the purpose
LessonsLearnt
PRO
CESS
How is th
e pu
rpos
e ac
hiev
ed?
OU
TCOM
E W
hat is the ulm
ate eect?
Two of the most important lessons from the study were the need for robust process design that reflects well-designed goals that are articulated at the outset of the work, and the need for transparent objectives, which also need to be articulated, so that performance can be measured against them. These lessons and the others identified in the study were used in planning the Institute’s own future-thinking workshop, StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future, applying the four-step model to its design.
As noted above, New Zealand has only once attempted to create centralised, government-integrated long-term thinking and planning, with the establishment in the 1970s of the Commission for the Future. The Commission was tasked with studying, informing, promoting and reporting on long-term economic and social opportunities for New Zealand. However, it was disbanded in 1982 when its recommendations relating to nuclear preparedness and national security were found to be unacceptable by the government of the day. New Zealand’s future-thinking landscape has since been defined by ad hoc initiatives that have attempted to fill the void created by the lack of long-term planning within the government framework. The Institute values the work of the Commission for the Future, and in particular its chairman Professor James Duncan, so highly that it has named its library the James Duncan Reference Library.
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Stage 2: Pre-workshop PreparationThe aim of StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future was to explore how New Zealanders might develop a strategy map for the long-term future of the country. In order to achieve this, a diverse range of participants were encouraged to attend the workshop so that people of different ages, professions and backgrounds would be working together. Our aim was to gather a broad range of perspectives by ‘putting New Zealand in the room’.
Prior to the workshop the Institute also ran a ‘Three Questions’ survey inspired by Harvard Business School Professor Robert Simons’ book Seven Strategy Questions. Those registering for the workshop as well as a range of other New Zealanders were invited to complete the survey prior to StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future. The survey asked ‘What strategic uncertainties keep you awake at night?’ in regard to the respondent’s business, Christchurch,14 and New Zealand. The response to the survey was large, and the answers varied. The latter were published in a working paper that was provided to workshop participants to help them prepare their strategies. Figure 4 shows the responses to the third question, relating to New Zealand.
Even before the two-day workshop began, a number of inputs were put in place. Dr Peter Bishop, director of the graduate programme in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, ran a two-day introductory course in future studies. Almost half the participants of the workshop attended this course, during which they were introduced to the basic concepts, context and application of future studies.
The workshop itself included a range of other inputs, such as official statistics papers, Sustainable Future Institute reports and think pieces, a workbook designed specifically for the workshop (which included the timeline shown in Figure 1) and a draft of the Institute’s book Nation Dates. The workshop programme was structured into six parts.
Stage 3: Workshop
Part 1: Setting the global contextThe workshop was opened by Sir Paul Callaghan, Kiwibank’s 2011 New Zealander of the Year. He was followed by NASA Chief Scientist Dennis M. Bushnell, Dr Peter Bishop, and Aaron Maniam, the first head of the Singapore government’s Centre for Strategic Futures. All these speakers contributed significant insights into the wider global context for future thinking.
Part 2: Where New Zealand is todayIn Part 2 of the workshop, eight prominent New Zealanders put forward their observations, perceived obstacles and opportunities for the country’s future. These speakers came from a range of backgrounds, and included academics, scientists, economists, entrepreneurs, and lawyers. They challenged the participants to think critically about a whole range of subjects concerning New Zealand.
Part 3: Preparing a vision, strategic intent and a strategy mapPart 3, preparing the strategy maps, was hard work. The participants were divided into ten groups, or ‘teams’, each of which was represented by a colour, with members receiving T-shirts in their team colour. The teams worked together throughout the afternoon, and many of the participants stayed through the night to complete the task.
It was clear from early on in the organisation of the workshop that one of the best ways to communicate the desired thinking space would be visually, with innovative design. The Institute was very fortunate to have the assistance of Dr Mick Abbott, director of the Masters in Design programme at the University of Otago, who put together a talented group of designers to assist the teams. Each team thus included a designer, who not only participated in the discussion but also helped to communicate the resulting strategies. A talented pool of consultants with different areas of expertise were on hand to assist participants in the development of their strategy maps.
14 New Zealand’s second-largest city, Christchurch, has been hit by a series of earthquakes since September 2010 , the worst of which struck the city around midday on 22 February 2011; 182 people lost their lives and thousands were made homeless (Nation Dates, 2011: 122).
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Figure 4. What Strategic uncertainties keep you awake at night with regard to the future of New Zealand
Q3
What strategic uncertainties keep you
awake at night with regard to the future
of New Zealand?
1.Government strategy and forward planning
27%
2.
Talk but no action
4%
3.Implementing
sustainable practices
14%
4.New Zealand’s global identity
14%
5.
Brain-drain4%
6.
Economic uncertainties
23%
7.Our population, our society, our
people 26%
8.
Peak oil 12%
9.Infrastructure
5%
10.Climate change
6%
11.Our environment
and the responsible management of our
resources 27%
12. Outliers
9%
13. No uncertainties
5%
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The groups were asked to create three outputs, and they had ten minutes in which to present these to the judges on the following morning. While the presentation format was left open, all three outputs had to be integrated into a compelling story which would resonate with the audience.
The first output, a cover for the current affairs magazine New Zealand Listener in 2058, was inspired by a Harvard Business School workshop held by Professor Robert G. Eccles to represent vision (see three of the ten covers in Figure 5). The second output was derived from a competition held in 1908 in which New Zealanders were asked to design a new Coat of Arms to represent strategic intent (see the ten Coat of Arms in Figure 6). The most important output was the strategy map, where participants applied the Harvard Business School strategy mapping process (see two of the ten strategy maps in Figures 7 and 8). To understand how these elements are linked, see the strategy pyramid in Figure 9.
Figure 5. Exploring the cover of New Zealand Listener in the year 2058
MARCH 30 - APRIL 5 2058
WORLD EXPOCOMES TO AOTEAROA!10 BILLION VIRTUAL TOURISTS OVER 7 DAYS
Fences come down at Zealandia Wildlife Sanctuary
Aotearoa Enterprise engaged as chief advisor to Queensland Community Services
March 30-April 5 2058
AOTEAROA
AOTEAROA RANKED NUMBER 1 IN RECENT TALENT SURVEY
NZ Education Competes at a Global Level
March 30-April 5, 2058
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL WELLBEING DRIVE ECONOMY
Virtual Immersion Technology in Decline
Figure 6. Exploring New Zealand’s Coat of Arms in 2058
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Figure 7. Example of a Strategy Map – Group 1Ka
hae
re n
ga m
okop
una
ki te
hi t
una!
By 2
058
New
Zea
land
will
be
reco
gnis
ed a
s th
e ha
ppie
st n
atio
n on
ear
th!
Papa
tuan
uku
and
Rang
inui
Rest
ored
Env
ironm
ent
• Rec
ogni
se a
nd a
ckno
wle
dge
the
soci
al, p
rodu
ctiv
e, s
pitir
ual a
nd
• Res
tore
eco
logi
cal i
nfra
stru
ctur
e
• Priv
ate
/ Pub
lic c
olla
bora
tive
man
agem
ent o
f eco
syst
em s
ervi
ces
• Inc
entiv
ised
indu
stry
to e
xcee
d ba
selin
e re
gula
tion
• Ind
ustr
y an
d co
mm
unity
co
llabo
ratio
n
• Edu
catio
n ab
out a
ccou
ntin
g fo
r ex
tern
alis
ed c
osts
• Rig
ht m
ix o
f reg
ulat
ion
and
ince
ntiv
e fr
amew
orks
• Sho
rten
farm
er to
con
sum
er c
hain
• Hea
lthy
eco-
syst
ems
• Cle
an w
ater
• Opt
imis
ed u
se o
f the
land
’s n
atur
al
capi
tal
Man
aaki
tang
aPr
ospe
rous
and
dev
elop
ing
econ
omy
Kota
hita
nga
Dyn
amic
and
cap
able
com
mun
ities
Wha
kaw
hanu
anga
tang
aG
loba
l con
nect
edne
ss
• Com
mer
cial
isin
g sm
art
busi
ness
idea
s
• Reb
uild
Chr
istc
hurc
h as
a le
adin
g ec
o-ci
ty
• Inc
reas
ed a
cces
s to
cap
ital
• Ope
n R&
D li
nks
betw
een
scie
nce
and
busi
ness
valu
e ch
ains
• Acc
ess
to h
igh
spee
d da
ta
• Fle
xibl
e, v
ersa
tile,
resi
lient
co
mm
uniti
es re
spon
sive
to
oppo
rtun
ity
• Int
ellig
ent c
omm
unity
eng
aged
in
gove
rnm
ent
• Res
pect
and
har
mon
y in
div
ersi
ty
• Edu
cate
New
Zea
land
ers
Gov
ernm
ent p
roce
sses
(civ
ics)
• Aot
earo
a ci
tizen
cha
rter
• Im
prov
ed li
ving
sta
ndar
ds fo
r all
• Str
ong
trad
e an
d pe
acek
eepi
ng
rela
tions
hips
• Inc
entiv
ise
and
regu
late
for
tran
spar
ent g
over
nmen
t
• Und
erst
and
and
prac
tice
othe
r’s
wor
ldvi
ews
• Abi
lity
to re
late
cro
ss-c
ultu
rally
• Hum
anita
rian
com
mitm
ent
• Adv
ocat
e in
inte
rnat
iona
l for
ums
• Bui
ld s
trat
egic
rela
tions
hips
• Ski
llful
dip
lom
acy
• Ope
ness
and
tran
spar
ency
How
will
we
do it
?
Wha
t will
it ta
ke?
Wel
l-bei
ng G
oals
Wha
t mus
t the
St
rate
gy A
chie
ve?
20
58 A
otea
roa
Stra
tegy
Map
Kaiti
akita
nga
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WORKING PAPER 2011/20
Figure 8. Example of a Strategy Map – Group 4
By 2
058,
N
ew Z
eala
nd
will
be
the
mos
t de
sira
ble
coun
try
to
live
in.
Embe
d lo
ng-t
erm
fu
ture
thin
king
at
all l
evel
s of
go
vern
men
t and
co
mm
unity
.
Tran
spar
ent a
nd
acco
unta
ble
gove
rnan
ce.
Hea
lthy
peop
le a
nd
com
mun
ities
.
A n
atio
n th
at
valu
es a
nd
leve
rage
s di
vers
ity.
Fost
er
inno
vatio
n an
d cr
eativ
ity th
at
leav
es a
pos
itive
an
d su
stai
nabl
e so
ciet
y.
Job
crea
tion.
A d
esira
ble
loca
tion
for
busi
ness
sta
rt-u
ps.
Incr
ease
d sa
tisfa
ctio
n fo
r w
ork
and
lifes
tyle
.
A s
afe
envi
ronm
ent.
Ever
yone
kno
ws
wha
t fut
ure
thin
king
is a
nd
how
to d
o it.
Equa
l opp
ortu
nitie
s fo
r all.
Resi
lient
, ada
ptiv
e,
and
resp
onsi
ve to
ch
ange
.
Redu
ced
con�
ict
re�e
cted
in c
rime
rate
s.
Incr
ease
and
pro
vide
su
ppor
t for
new
im
mig
ratio
n.
Peop
le li
ve lo
nger
an
d w
ell i
n th
eir
own
hom
es a
nd
com
mun
ities
.
Hom
es a
re s
afe,
w
arm
, and
dry
.
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mun
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and
ho
usin
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re
new
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re
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vel o
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en
gage
men
t in
dem
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proc
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Incr
ease
d in
volv
emen
t and
un
ders
tand
ing
of
deci
sion
s.
100%
vot
ing
rate
.
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cal,
regi
onal
, an
d na
tiona
l net
wor
ks.
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ge in
min
dset
.
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ntiv
es,
rew
ards
, and
fu
ndin
g fo
cuse
d on
long
-ter
m
outc
omes
, as
oppo
sed
to
shor
t-te
rm g
ains
.
Lead
ers
who
are
pr
epar
ed to
take
ris
ks a
nd tr
ust
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rs to
do
thin
gs
di�e
rent
ly.
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atio
n fo
r inc
reas
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nce.
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posu
re to
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ity in
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mm
uniti
es.
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ifyin
g ou
r val
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and
skill
gap
s.
Legi
slat
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that
ens
ures
su
stai
nabl
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uses
are
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r NZ
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s, sp
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and
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k to
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ch w
ork
to p
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skill
s an
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tere
st fo
r as
long
as
they
are
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ing
to w
ork.
Util
ise
tech
nolo
gies
to
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a s
ocia
l co
mm
unity
and
nat
ion.
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igra
tion
by a
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ctin
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re n
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ide
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igra
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ster
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icly
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gnis
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mes
.
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tailo
red
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thca
re
syst
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t car
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ght
plac
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ght t
ime.
)
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ign
and
impl
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inte
grat
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stem
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roun
d th
e pe
rson
.
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e tr
ain
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orkf
orce
for t
he
new
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re.
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ical
term
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ve
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re
publ
icly
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ial a
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ia to
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cilit
ate
dem
ocra
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esse
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atio
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the
dem
ocra
tic p
roce
ss.
Iden
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re s
cena
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licy
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Legi
slat
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0, a
nd
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that
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chan
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gem
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go
vern
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bora
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rtic
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echa
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oach
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rts.
VI
SIO
N
TH
EMES
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AT T
HE
STRA
TEG
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VES
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W T
HE
STRA
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ILL
BE R
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SED
WH
AT T
HE
STRA
TEG
Y W
ILL
REQ
UIR
E
FORESIGHT IN NEW ZEALAND | 12
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Figure 9. Strategy Pyramid
MissionWhy do we exist?
ValuesWhat is important to us?
VisionWhat do we want to be?
Strategic IntentHow will we get there?
DriversWhat will we focus on?
Enablers
Strategy MapHow will we translate the strategy?
What will we need to do?
Performance IndicatorsHow will we know we are successful?
Purpose
Strategy
While the groups were under a lot of time pressure, and had to work hard to complete their three outputs, all ten groups succeeded. The process encouraged conversations about New Zealand’s future among the team members, some of whom were as young as 16, while others were well past retirement age.
Part 4: Presenting and judging strategy mapsPart 4 began on the second day at 10am, when all ten teams presented their outputs to the four judges. While the level of detail contained within a strategy map does not lend itself to being easily communicated in a ten-minute presentation, the groups did an outstanding job of delivering their strategy maps, Coats of Arms and magazine covers. Groups described the results their vision would deliver, identified how these outcomes would be achieved, and detailed what resources would be necessary to enable the vision. Four maps were selected by the judges to be presented at the Legislative Council Chamber of Parliament that evening. After the judging, the winning teams dispersed to boardrooms around Wellington to polish their strategy maps and presentations.
Part 5: Three workstreamsParticipants not selected for the presentations at the Legislative Council Chamber had a choice of two working lunches. The first of these was a panel chaired by Dr Peter Bishop, which discussed international futurists and how New Zealand could collaborate more effectively with international futures organisations. The second panel was chaired by Jane Diplock of the Securities Commission, who led a discussion on integrated reporting and measures of progress in this area.
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Part 6: Presentations to Members of Parliament at the Legislative Council ChamberPart 6 was the presentation of the four selected strategy maps at the Legislative Council Chamber in Wellington on the evening of March 31. Two Members of Parliament who had actively supported StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future, Charles Chauvel and Chris Auchinvole, agreed to co-host the presentation. The four maps were presented to a 240-strong audience who, in addition to those who had taken part in the workshop, included current and former mayors, ambassadors, MPs, councillors and other friends of the Institute. Political journalist Colin James also presented a paper titled ‘History is full of unpredicted futures’, and final remarks by Charles Chauvel and Chris Auchinvole brought the workshop to a close.
It is important to note that this process was an experiment. The Institute’s aim was to put New Zealand’s long-term future in the room and start exploring this unfamiliar yet crucially important territory. The group outputs speak for themselves, and the objectives of the workshop were well and truly met. The quality of the strategy maps demonstrates the commitment of the workshop’s participants to developing long-term, inclusive and robust strategies to deliver a sustainable future for New Zealand.
Stage 4: Post-workshopJust as the Institute had worked hard before the workshop to put together resources for the participants, it was essential to work equally hard afterwards to put together and publish the outputs and gather the reflections and feedback of the participants. The Institute’s Report 13, StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future Strategy Maps: From Te Papa to the Legislative Council Chamber, documents the inputs, processes and outputs of the two-day workshop. This publication was designed to provide participants and other interested parties with a resource that they could use to revisit and put in place the methods, ideas and strategies generated over the two days. The report also includes a number of contributing papers from the speakers and others involved with the workshop.
Among the lessons learnt from the Institute’s earlier analysis of 18 future-thinking initiatives was the importance of reporting and measuring progress – before, during and after the initiative. It was essential to seek feedback and take lessons from the workshop, and to keep the participants engaged. To this end two post-workshop publications were produced, one that put together reflections from the participants and another that synthesised feedback after the event.
The e-book Reflections from Participants of the Workshop – March 30/31 is a testament to the knowledge and motivation of the participants. The e-book contains 30 reflections written by participants, which are arranged into the categories vision, foresight, strategy, execution and final reflections. To ensure the opportunity to learn lessons from the initiative was not missed, a working paper, StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future Participant Feedback, was also produced. This was largely based on the results of an online survey conducted by the Institute, together with other feedback received after the event.
Another feature of the Institute’s post-workshop work was the publication of its first book, Nation Dates: Significant events that have shaped the nation of New Zealand. This book was initially distributed to participants as a draft containing a timeline of 220 significant events. However, by the time feedback from the workshop participants had been incorporated and the final book was published it had grown to 440 events organised into 65 different historical threads. See Figure 10 for a full list of publications from the StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future event.
Stage 5: New Initiatives Resulting from the EventThere was a strong sense of energy following the workshop and a huge amount of positive feedback, in addition to which many people were asking ‘What next?’ With so many people already engaged it was important to build on the outputs of the workshop and carry this momentum forward. Sir Paul Callaghan delivered a powerful presentation at the start of the workshop in which he stated his belief that another 100 exceptional entrepreneurs could significantly improve New Zealand’s fortunes. This was a key theme that resonated with the participants. A major theme of the final strategies was the importance of attracting talent to New Zealand and retaining it, and the desire to move to a much more entrepreneurial, high-income society.
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In response to this idea, the Institute invited a group of successful and influential entrepreneurs to meet with Sir Paul Callaghan to consider how New Zealand’s education, immigration and employment systems could be recalibrated to ensure the country becomes ‘a place where talent wants to live’. There has been a very positive response from the group, and the Institute looks forward to supporting them in any initiatives they wish to pursue.
Another key theme was New Zealand’s forthcoming constitutional review (now in progress), and in particular concerns over the length of the country’s three-year electoral cycle. There was also a clear appetite from our young people to develop youth forums and find ways in which they can become part of the solution, and a realisation that while we need to act nationally, we must think globally. This means not only being a good global citizen, but also being connected globally so that we obtain the latest information, adopt and applaud best practice, apply the best methods and models, export quality products and services, and keep asking questions about the best way forward.
To this end the Institute has undertaken a new project, EmpowerNZ, which aims to facilitate discussion among New Zealanders around the current constitutional review and our long-term future. EmpowerNZ (www.empowernz.co.nz) is primarily focused on ensuring the voice of our nation is heard at a time when major decisions about our constitutional framework are being made. This project aims to strengthen the ability of young people to become better informed and more connected, and as a result more committed and able to work together to shape the future of New Zealand.
Looking ForwardSociety is clearly better off when individuals, groups, and government work individually or together to achieve common goals. The Sustainable Future Institute has worked to locate itself within the rich body of work and knowledge in future studies that exists in New Zealand. StrategyNZ: Mapping Our Future was the Institute’s attempt to put a committed group of New Zealanders together with the aim of developing and charting their visions for New Zealand’s long-term future. The Institute has endeavoured to learn from past futures work and to use this knowledge to develop methodologies and frameworks for its own initiatives.
The opportunity to learn from other countries that have embedded institutional foresight (such as Korea), is a significant contribution to the on-going discussion on how New Zealand might become a more intelligent nation. However, given we are now in a period where collective problems facing the global community have become increasingly urgent, a networked model of inter-state relationships, where intelligent nations work together to address what is becoming an evolving constellation of complex issues, is likely to be a critical part of the solution.
Developing a shared understanding of the study of foresight and ideally a shared intelligence of the future, must be a prerequisite for solving global and regional problems. Shared foresight will not only provide nations a common view as to the type and nature of the problems we may face, but provide nations with a shared set of skills and networks today so as to engage early with these issues in order to minimise the impacts and optimise the opportunities for current and future generations.
Disclaimer The Sustainable Future Institute has used reasonable care in collecting and presenting the information provided in this publication. However, the Institute makes no representation or endorsement that this resource will be relevant or appropriate for its readers’ purposes and does not guarantee the accuracy of the information at any particular time for any particular purpose. The Institute is not liable for any adverse consequences, whether they be direct or indirect, arising from reliance on the content of this publication. Where this publication contains links to any website or other source, such links are provided solely for information purposes and the Institute is not liable for the content of such website or other source.
Published Copyright © Sustainable Future Institute Limited, December 2011. This work is available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivatives 3.0 New Zealand Licence. ISBN 978-1-877473-92-0 (PDF)
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Figure 10. Outputs from StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
I. Exploring the Landscape
• Report11:HistoryofFutureThinkers
II. Pre-workshop
• NationDates(book)
• Workbook(Report12)
• Two-dayFutureStudiesCourse(DrPeterBishop)
III. Workshop
• Part1:Settingtheglobalcontext
• Part2:WhereNewZealandistoday
• Part3:Preparingstrategymaps
• Part4:Presentingandjudgingstrategymaps
• Part5:Threeworkstreams
• Part6:PresentationstoMembersofParliament
IV. Post-workshop
• StrategyMap(Report13)
• Feedback(Workingpaper)
• Reflectionsbyparticipants(e-book)
• FinalNationDatesBookPublished
V. New Initiatives emerging from StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
• ConstitutionalReviewProjectandEmpowerNZwebsite
• ‘Aplacewheretalentwantstolive’ProjectandSirPaulCallaghanlunch
• Inadditiontheeventreinforcedtheimportanceoftwoongoingprojects:Project2058andProjectOneIntegratedReport