Download ppt - FORM Ideas for the Future B. Chimani, B. Dürr, M. Furger, T. Gutermann, C. Häberli, E. Scharnhorst, G. Seiz, R. Steinacker, S. Tschannett, S. Vogt, R

FORMIdeas for the Future

B. Chimani, B. Dürr, M. Furger, T. Gutermann, C. Häberli, E. Scharnhorst, G. Seiz, R. Steinacker,

S. Tschannett, S. Vogt, R. Werner

FORM Meeting Bad Ragaz November 2005 3.-4.11.2005

The Collection Process

• Collection worked very well – many ideas were found• Some are out of scale, some are really concrete!• What shall we do with all these ideas? • How to decide which ideas should be realised?

Thank you all for your contribution to the brainstorming


Guidelines to this workpackage

• Brainstorming – everything is possible• Ideas occurring during the presentation are

very welcome – open discussion• First classification should be no limit• The ones who had the ideas, please

contribute to the discussion• Let‘s discuss:

(First classification for an Overview)


Forecasting – NWP Models and Applications

• Resolution NWP-model – resolution observing system • Investigate foehn and its small scale effects with ultra high

resolution models – see examples by Zängl• Model independent analyses as input for NWP-Models instead of /

as a supplement to single station data assimilation in NWP models• How to include mountain top stations in high resolution NWP-

models: foehn as an investigation vehicle

• Air mass index – coupled with concentration of Ozone,…?• Transition region to alpine pumping – extract this mesoscale issue

out of NWP-model profiles


Phenomena

• Meandering of Foehn• asymetric penetration of foehn in valleys – also in connection with a

field experiment in parts (ultra high concentration of in-situ and remote sensingequipment) of the Reuss- and Rhine Valley – also for validation of NWP models

• Topography forces synoptic-scale into a corset typical patterns, which can switch back and forth – switch-situation / hysteresis effects / prehistory

• Waves in Meso-β-scale – cold pool effects north of the Alps• Blocking layers vertical, horizontal, tilted – describe its drifting in the

valley• Investigation of meteorological condition leading to critical

dispersion conditions (inversions, strong dynamical or convective wind shear) and propagation of pollutants


Phenomena II

• Foehn and aerosol – long range transport, source areas, impact on air quality, vertical exchange between different layers

• Understanding of aerosol processes in alpine valleys – daily changes and processes in the scale: horizontal 25-150km, vertical 50 – 2500m

• Vorticity banner - foehn north side of the alps: its connection (fluctuating Foehn-velocity) and appearance

• Wave patterns on the surface / 4D• Cold air pool – movement – breakup • Contribution of side valeys


Phenomena III

• Relevance of an inversion over the Alps in connection with foehn (critical velocity, hydraulic theory)

• Not every cold front has a (shallow) foehn phase in advance – why not?

• Condition leading to foehn or cold front domination


Future observation networks

• Station distribution: optimizing with 4D-VAR assimilation / use models to find sensitive places – network design / adaptive observations

• Observing system – representativity error• Stations at sensitive places enough information for NWP – model forecast• Boundary layer (also boundary between foehn and cold air) sampling by

• transect of tethered balloon• Modell aircraft (MAGPIE)• Kites to sample rotors• Moving with the cold air boundary

• Proposal for a new data format: every data to be saved with all its coordinates (x,y,z,t) + quality flags to prevent errors (wrong units, time,…)

• 4D radiosonde network for foehn investigation, Rass 3D – Upstream – Cold Pool Sampling

• Further development in remote sensing techniques (lidar, wind profiler) for foehn research

• Additional and complementary information to be extracted from satellite measurements in connection with foehn


General Issues

• Project to investigate systematically foehn-sensitivity using the latest ultra high resolution models in the alpine valley

• Theoretical models – phenomenons – observing systems• Verification/Deepening of the understanding of the solenoidal theory


Review and Outlook

• What have we learnt of MAP – Synthesis paper• MAP-Data: extend usage and knowledge of the MAP-Database

from 2% to 20%• Technical paper on data collection during MAP and data handling at

the MDC• How has MAP-FORM helped to make progress concerning Foehn

prediction? Any classification numbers available?

• MAP-Demonstrationproject: how can foehn forecasts be optimized? (wind warnings for lakes,...), how can NWP-models be optimzied (aLMo 2.4km)


Review and Outlook II

• MAP-D-Phase:– Foehn-warnings-procedures

• Rhine valley / Lake of constance – Reuss valley• Valais / Hasli-valley-Brienz-Lungern• Kleine Scheidegg• Inn valley / Innsbruck

– Prepare foehn flight pattern – asymetric penetration of foehn valleys

– Realtime verification of NWP-models (already partly available)

– Compilation of common interests for foehn/storm topics

– Organise foehn flights

• Global change possible to be detected in data of a new experiment in comparison to MAP data – foehn statistics

• A new research institution concentrating on foehn• Alpine Mesoscale Experiment – ALMEX