Foundations for a Regional
Drought Early Warning
System in the Missouri River
BasinLaura Edwards, SDSU Extension
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Geography
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MR annual runoff
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http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/pdfs/MRIndependentReviewPanel.pdf
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http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/time/
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http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/time/
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Strong Foundations
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Monthly climate and drought webinars
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Strong Foundations
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Quarterly 2-page summaries
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MRB Kick-off meeting
February 27-28, 2014
Nebraska City, NE
~70 attendees from across the basin
Interactive and engaged group!
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60%
Sectors Represented at the Meeting
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30%
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Impacted in recentdrought
Could reduce impacts Quantify reduction inimpacts
Assign dollar value toreduction in impacts
Yes
Not sure
No
No Opinion
N/A
Figure 2: Percent who were impacted by drought, felt they could reduce impacts, felt they
could quantify reduction in impacts, and felt they could assign a dollar value to the reduction
in impacts
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World Café
Questions asked:
Research Gaps and Needs
Communication and Information Delivery Needs
What’s Working?
Who’s Missing?
Sectors:
Agriculture
Natural Resource Management
Municipal/Communities and Water Supply
Human Health
Energy
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Common Themes
Good quality data, but need more dense network for
improved monitoring and forecasting
Improve knowledge of interactions of climate and
water systems and ecosystems
Decent large scale conditions, make locally relevant
Many needs in human health arena… starting at
Square 1
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Research gaps and needs
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Common Themes
Expand drought planning resources and assistance
How to better communicate risk, esp. to urbanites who are removed from decision-making but are impacted
Existing webinars and newsletters, etc. are great; don’t take them away
Don’t focus just on drought… flood and climate extremes in general
Better utilize traditional and social media
Educate health providers on drought-related illnesses
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Communication and information delivery needs
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Common Themes
Quarterly basin summary
RCC and SCs as climate data and information
providers
US Drought Monitor
Some great examples of municipal/community-level
water supply planning
Day-to-day management decisions are well
understood
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What’s working
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Break-out Session
Resources & Strengths
Gaps
Best Potential Outcomes
Metrics: What does success look like in the MRB?
Next Steps
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Metrics for Success
Reduced vulnerability/impacts
Improved resources/assistance
Increased drought planning
Increased awareness
Improved Policy
Effective Communication
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Next Steps
Listen/Engage
Engage policy-makers
Expand Group
Research
Develop strategic plan
Form working groups
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ID financial resources
Develop MRB place on
NIDIS website
Communicate
Develop services
Support others
Support Policy
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Drought Portal webpage
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http://drought.gov/drought/regional-programs/mrb/missouri-river-basin-home
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Tribal-related Activities
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Recent follow-up meeting with 4 Kansas tribes in
Lincoln
Building capacity, gaining familiarity w/regional
partners
Finding ways to gain outside support in preparing
tribal resilience to climate extremes
Wind River (WY): working with NC CSC, NDMC to
create DEWS and vulnerability assessment
Rosebud (SD): starting drought planning
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Other current tribal engagment
activities
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Drought planning efforts in MO
Basin
South Dakota: in revision stage currently, original
drought plan from the 1980s
Kansas: KS Water Office looking at 50 year+ water
plan, focusing on groundwater to surface water
Montana: National Drought Resiliency Partnership,
NIDIS staff participating in watershed planning
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Drought (and flood) monitoring
WRDA bill required US Army Corps to increase snow
monitoring and soil moisture measurements
Volunteer “co-op” SWE, twice per month
SD Mesonet adding soil sensors, and more
stations
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Facebook: SDSU Climate
Twitter: @SDSUClimate
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Agriculture
Research Gaps and Needs
Soil moisture measuring & monitoring
Understanding and defining decision calendars for ag early warning systems
More support for existing monitoring programs – e.g., NWS coop network, USGS streamflow gauges, etc.
Implications of policy, e.g, Farm Bill, on ag sector practices and behaviors/risks/vulnerabilities
Communication and Information Delivery Needs
Synthesis and Scaling data/information to level of decision or policy maker
Local impacts & U.S. Drought Monitor – two-way information sharing – e.g., UCRB, NC
Creating learning communities/local peer groups and networks for sharing of information
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Agriculture
What’s Working?
UCRB, NC 2-way communication between local <-> USDM
(across sectors, not just ag)
Quarterly basin summary (potential for more/better distribution)
USGS streamflow data
US Drought Monitor Map
High Plains Regional Climate Center products
Who’s Missing?
Ag producers
Private sector businesses – e.g., Monsanto, John Deere
Certified crop advisors, crop insurance agents and other ag-
related organizations/associations, etc.
Extension and Ag Experiment Station
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Natural Resource Management
Research Gaps and Needs
Need for more baseline data/monitoring of snowpack, soil moisture,
streamflow gauges and timely access to the data and accessible
archive
Improved understanding of historical droughts (back to paleoclimate
timescale) to put modern day droughts into context**
Improved models of vegetation responses to future drought and impacts
to ecosystem services/livelihoods/wildlife
Translate regional/national products to local impacts for preparedness
and decision support (e.g., for fire management across scales of
governance/agencies
How to develop risk management strategies with an unknown or
uncertain future condition of an ecosystem/vegetation (e.g. T&E
species)**
Need to quantify & communicate drought in value terms, e.g.,
economic, livelihoods (jobs), non-market value ecosystem services**
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Natural Resource Management
Communication and Information Delivery Needs
Need to better communicate changes in
climate/ecosystem/vegetation regimes and potential
future scenarios to policymakers
Format/localize information for the target audience
Need to better connect with other MRB committees, tie
into existing groups
Using significant historical droughts as context for
communicating/relating to recent/future droughts
Communicate the message to build resiliency to
climate extremes (drought/flood events)
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Municipal/Communities and Rural Water
Supply
Research Gaps and Needs
Industry needs approved forecasting method for extended
droughts, good accuracy
GCDP numbers and other data hard to get, often proprietary
Development of guidance documents for drought management
and planning
Communication and Information Delivery Needs
Delivery of guidance documents for drought management and
planning
Sustained, proactive communication, not just during/after a
drought
Better utilize traditional and social media outlets
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Municipal/Communities and Rural Water
Supply
What’s Working?
Missouri, connecting smaller systems to regional suppliers
Kansas, showed small water systems how to read monitoring wells
Iowa, working through rural & urban water associations for
encourage muni drought planning
Who’s Missing?
Commodity orgs
Reps of municipal water suppliers (public water)
Executive branch/higher level authority from states
Media
Game and parks
Oil and gas
Local water systems/irrigation districts
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Energy
Research Gaps and Needs-Drought is not the only weather/climate related vulnerability. Supply is also impacted during flooding. Increased ice storms impacts distribution and transmission. Climate information could be used for a general assessment of infrastructure. System is designed for averages.-Congressional instruction to promote renewable energy sources. Development of these sources, combined with load growth, makes it difficult to move energy.
i. Power generation is a minute-by-minute decision whereas infrastructure changes, such as revamping systems to use lower quality water, may take years.
ii. The system of dams in the Missouri River Basin builds in a buffer, so any reductions in precipitation are lagged.
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Energy
Communication and Information Delivery Needs
Awareness and education! People need to understand that groundwater buffers that got us through previous extended droughts like the 1930s are gone.
The hydroelectric companies don’t manage water, they manage demand
What’s working?
-Hydro works on demand. So, as long as water is available, this form of energy works. However, they don’t manage water!
-Day to day activities are currently covered. But, vulnerabilities are at hand.
Who’s missing?
-A good question to follow-up on in the future.
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Human Health
Research Gaps and Needs
-Heat index, Mental health data, emergency room
statistics.
- The scientific journal approach is an impediment. It
takes so slow to learn about potential health impacts.
When the outbreaks occur we need to jump out right
away. We need the data! We don’t know where the data
is!
- There needs to be more epidemiologists focusing on this
issue that can identify population health issues right
away.
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Human Health
Communication and Information Delivery Needs:
When a doctor meets you, they should be asking “How are drought conditions affecting you?” The people who become doctors need to know what the rural context is.
There is a lack of awareness on urbanites about drought. Many people don’t really understand what the impacts are of drought in general. They don’t believe it affects them. Education is critical so people are aware of cascading effects of drought. How do you effectively communicate risk?
What is the role of schools and educators in this? Seems like kids should be able to relate water to health better?
-The community buy in is critical. Who knows more than the community?
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Human Health What’s working?
-Who Knows? We need to be finding this out, record it, and disseminate it to the broader public.
-There have been some case studies, “The Anatomy of a Heat Wave”-ask Jim Schwab about this and how Chicago has tackled the heat wave issue!
-UNMC has an excellent Ag Health and Safety Program that addresses heat and drought!
Who do we need to be talking to?
Social workers and primary care doctors, school nurses, educators, K-4 / K-12 programs, health and human services (at federal and state levels). There is a need to educate people on weather and health, people experience climate through health conditions.