Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Future NetworksJohn Visser, CD, P.Eng.
+1 613 276 [email protected]
ITU Regional Workshop on “Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States”
(Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 )
Outline
Changes and DiscontinuitiesWhere Should Intelligence Reside?SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”Some Thoughts on the Future
2Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
Started with TelegraphData (Morse code)
3Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
TelegraphTelephone
Manual to mechanical to software switchingAnalog to TDM to IP
4Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
TelegraphTelephoneData
Circuit-based, non-switchedPacket dataIP
5Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
TelegraphTelephoneDataInternet and the WWW
IP
6Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Internet Protocol(IP)
Any Service&
Every Service
Any Transport&
Every Transport Technology
Everything Over IP andIP Over Everything
7Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Telecommunications Industry: Constant Innovation
Analog to Digital
Wireline to Wireless
Copper to Fiber
Wireless to WiMAX/4G/LTE
VoIP and Converged Communications
VoIP and Converged Communications
Change comes from disruption. And disruption is constant!
8Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Discontinuities
Transition from Fixed to MobileGrowth of fixed services slowing, turning negativeMobile phone growth continues but levelling off due to market saturation
9Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Data Network
Discontinuities
Transition from Analog to DataOn circuit-switched (analog or TDM) voice networks, data is handled by making it look like voice (modems)
On packet switched data networks, voice is handled by making it look like data (VoIP)
Phone Network
10Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Discontinuities and Convergence
Once we just had a telephone on our desks.Then we added a computer mainframe terminal,but replaced that with a personal computer …… which became portable (laptop), …… we added wireless networking including voice, but we shrunk them a little too much …
… so we enlarged them to just about the right size.
11Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Outline
Changes and DiscontinuitiesWhere Should Intelligence Reside?SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”Some Thoughts on the Future
12Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Intelligence was centralized, but is it in the right place?
We began with human operators “inside the network” handling switching and services for “hard-wired” subscribers, …... “progressed” to analog mechanical circuit switching (SxS), ...
... refined it with stored program control (#5 XBar, SP1), ...
13Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
We continued with the assumption that terminals were “dumb” …
We converted from analog to digital transmission and switching.We centralized network intelligence into with replicated islands of intelligence enabled by common channel signalling.
14Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
… but ISDN and Mobilitychanged everything!
Suddenly terminals had to be able to do a great deal more:
A functional ISDN terminal is a de facto 2 line exchange!
Cellular networks added a new dimension to what terminals had to do:
Mobility!
15Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Evolution!
We’ve gone from one extreme to the other:
Start: all intelligence in the network and none at the edges “dumb” terminalsAdvances in technology enabled intelligence to migrate to terminals connected to a “dumb” network
Neither end of the pendulum swing is ideal …
“Bell-heads”
“Net-heads”
16Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Outline
Changes and DiscontinuitiesWhere Should Intelligence Reside?SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”Some Thoughts on the Future
17Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
ITU-T SG 13 - Future Networks including Mobile and NGN
WP 5/13 Future Networks Q.7/13 Impact of IPv6 to an NGN Q.19/13 Distributed services
networking (DSN) Q.20/13 Public data networks Q.21/13 Future networks
Rec. Y.3001 Future Networks: Objectives and Design goalsApproved May 2011
18Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
An overview…4 Objectives and 12 Design Goals
4 Objectives
Service-awareness
Data-awareness
Environment-awareness
Social and economic awareness
RealizationFunctions appropriate to service needsHuge volumes, widely distributedEnergy efficient, recyclable materials; displace energy intensive activitiesReduced barriers to entry, reduced life cycle costs
19Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Relationship between Objectivesand Design Goals
Fig. 1/Rec. Y.3001
20Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Future Networks – More on the 12 Design Goals
Service diversity
Functional flexibility
Virtualization of resourcesData access
Diverse traffic: a few bps to ≥Gbps; delay (in)tolerant; simple sensors to complex terminalsAgility in deploying new servicesEfficiencies, commonalitiesVery high capacity for consumer generated volume
21Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Future Networks – Design Goals
Energy consumption
Service universalizationEconomic incentives
Network management
Full life cycle for equipment; lower energy technologies and conservationAvailable to everyoneCompetition through standards and open interfacesFlexible, enough capacity, simple, self configuring
22Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Future Networks – Design Goals
Mobility
Optimization
Identification
Reliability and Security
Full mobility for large scale and high speed networksOptimize capacity for service requirementsNew schema for many more devicesDesigned-in, including user privacy
23Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Outline
Changes and DiscontinuitiesWhere Should Intelligence Reside?SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”Some Thoughts on the Future
24Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Advances
1889 to 1950AutomobileRefrigerationElectricityTelephone
1950 to 2011Jet planeMan on the moonComputerInternet
What advances will we make between today and 2072?
25Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Some Key Developments
Computing technology advances enable more powerful, faster computersToday’s personal computer is yesterday’s super computerTechnology applied in handsets: as powerful as desktop PCs a few years ago
26Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Irreversible Changes
Trusted
Change is constant: adapt and adopt!
Enterprise-Driven
Hardware-Centric
Wireline
People to Machines
Peripheral Security
Proprietary Interfaces
Consumer-Driven
Software-Centric
Wireless
Machine to Machine
Embedded
Open (incl. Policy)
27Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Megatrends
Mega trends aredefining a new era:
Hyper-connectivityNetwork-awareapplications andapplications-awarenetworksTrue Broadband
Technology is all about enabling users to do what they want to do!
Carrier Enterprise
Wired
Wireless
Applications
Infrastructure
The world is rapidly becoming Hyperconnected!
28Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Hyperconnectivity
Anything that can be usefully connected will be connected
29Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Communications-Enabled Applications
• Reinvention of services and applications to support new levels of network-aware intelligence and an intuitive interaction experience• Achieve through advanced technology
frameworks such as IMS and Services Oriented Architecture (SOA)
30Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
True Broadband
• The communications experience is so seamless that users no longer have to consider which technology is being used to make a connection.
• Users simply communicate, anywhere, anytime from whichever device is most convenient. Most importantly, the broadband experience becomes so economical that the range of uses exceeds any experience of the past.
31Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Three Phases of M2M Services
From T. Norp (TNO/KPN) presentation at ETSI M2M Workshop, 19-20 Oct 2010
32Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Machine Type Communications
“The Internet of Things” (2005)Disproportionate impact of data applications
33Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
From S1-112284: 3GPP TR 22.801 V0.3.0 (2011-08)www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip
When Engineering Meets Medicine
An example of a new data application on a smart phone
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 34
UBC Engineering Faculty publication, “Ingenuity”, Spring/Summer 2011 (not yet posted)hwww.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/ Article is also available from the UBC Faculty of Medicine web site:www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm
Advances
1950 to 2011Jet planeMan on the moonComputerInternet
2011 to 2072Ubiquitous broadbandHyperconnectivityInternet of ThingsRobotics
35Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
In Closing: Some Quotations
“We always over-estimate the change that will occur in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten years.” *“When you get to a fork in the road, take it!” **“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ***
* Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation** Yogi Berra, American baseball player*** Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist
36Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
37Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Thank you for your attention!
John Visser, CD, P.Eng.+1 613 276 6096