Future of Japan’s Energy
Kiyoaki Aburaki March 8, 2012
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Power Output in 2009 Total 956.5 TkWh, (Source) Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC)
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Time: 3/11/11, 14:46Magnitude : 9.0Depth: 30km
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Shut down by the earthquake
Based on a Kyodo graphic
Shut down for inspection after 3.11
As of 3/5/2012
5Appeared in WSJ, July 29
Energy Conservation in Summer 2011
Fuel Consumption by Utilities
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LNG (t) Crude Oil (kl)
Apr-Sep Oct-Dec Apr-Sep Oct-Dec2010(A) 20,461,987 9,803,200 2,570,401 520,428 2011(B) 24,730,436 12,990,743 3,469,457 3,577,299
B/A 1.21 1.33 1.35 6.87
Heavy Oil (kl) Coal (t)Apr-Sep Oct-Dec Apr-Sep Oct-Dec
2010(A) 3,277,360 1,215,916 24,656,679 12,634,827 2011(B) 3,969,986 3,263,084 22,808,595 12,922,578
B/A 1.21 2.68 0.93 1.02 (source) FEPC
Power Output in Dec. 2011
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Nuclear7%
Coal23%
LNG46%
Oil 16%
Hydro6%
Renewable 2%
(Source) METI
Three Challenges in Energy Policies1. To establish imminent-, medium- and longer-tem energy
strategies that reduce uncertainty for the private sector and increase confidence among a public.
2. To formulate a flexible and diverse energy utilization Nuclear power (a role for baseload power) Fossil fuels Renewable energy
3. To use technological strength to contribute to the international community. Climate change Nuclear safety Saving fossil fuels
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Restart of Nuclear Power Plants1. No-Nuclear scenario means; Adverse effects on Japanese economy Relinquishment of Japan’s critical roles in the establishment
of global standards on nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation
2. Actions towards Restart Four Steps
Stress tests by nuclear operators Approvals of Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency(NISA) Consents of Nuclear Safety Commission. Approvals of local governments
Recent statements of PM Noda and Industry Minister Edano
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Japan’s Domestic Annual PV Panel Shipments
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2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
totalresidential
(kW)
(source) Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association
For the Successful Utilization of Renewable Energy1. New Feed-in-Tariff as a booster (scheduled to start this
summer)
Entails utilities’ obligation to purchase all electricity generated by renewable energy sources, with no limitation, at prices to be fixed by the government.
Surge in investments (ex. mega-solar, wind). Companies (Japanese, U.S., Canadian) and governments
(central, local)
2. The success depends on various factors The criteria for approval of specified suppliers The requirements for interconnection (costs and sharing
responsibilities in stable supply) The capacity of the grid etc.
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Energy Sector Resiliency
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1. Current structures of the Japan’s utility sector 10 utilities with a vertically integrated business model The difference in frequency between eastern (50-hertz)
and western Japan (60-hertz)
2. Needs to discuss new structures for greater efficiency and flexibility that would fully accommodate power generation from diversified sources and players
Ownership and participation in generation, transmission, and distribution business
Responsibilities for maintaining stable electricity supply Costs of business developments etc.
Conclusion1. Energy is the “blood” of national livelihood and
corporate activities. Energy policy is one of the most important pillars of national strategy.
2. Three factors to shape future of Japan’s energy Technology Markets Competition
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