Global Aging: Impact on Human Resources for
HealthBarbara J. Hatcher, PhD, MPH, RN
Director, Center for Learning & Global Public Health (APHA)
Interim Secretary General, World Federation of Public Health Associations (WFPHA)
Presentation Overview
• Demographic overview & the age wave
• World/Region/Country specific demographics
• Impact on Human Resources for Health
• Future Trends
This is the reality in the year 2005This is the reality in the year 2005
The world stands on the threshold of a demographic revolution called global aging.
The whole world is aging—and today’s developed countries are leading the way.The whole world is aging—and today’s
developed countries are leading the way.
8% 9%10%
12%13%
14%16%
19%
23%25%
26%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6%8%
10%
13%15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Developed World Developing World
Percent of PopulationAged 65 & Over: History and UN Projection
Source: UN (2005)
Year 2005
Fertility in every developed country has Fertility in every developed country has fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”Fertility in every developed country has Fertility in every developed country has
fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”
3.3
2.9 2.8
3.6
2.0
2.5 2.5
2.01.9
1.71.5
1.3 1.3 1.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
US France UK Canada Japan Germany Italy
Life
time
Birt
hs p
er W
oman
1960-1965 2000-2005
Total Fertility Rate, by Country
Source: UN (2005)
2.1
Life spans in the developed countries have risen dramatically.
68.9 69.267.5
66.5
69.1
66.0
63.9
77.378.3 78.6
79.4 79.7 80.0
81.9
60
65
70
75
80
85
US UK Germany France Canada Italy Japan
Ye
ars
1950-1955 2000-2005
Life Expactancy at Birth, by Country
Source: UN (2005)
Aging Exemplar
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Latin America & the Caribbean
• Total Population (in millions) - 518.8
• Life expectancy at birth (in years) • Men 67.2 •Women 73.6
• Median Age 24.4 years old • Total Fertility Rate 2.5 children
born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
Latin America & the Caribbean
• % Population Aged 60+ •Men 7.2 •Women 8.7
• % 60+ Population in Labor Force •Men 47 •Women 12
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
United States• Total Population (in millions) - 293 • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
• Men 74.3 • Women 80
• Median Age • Men 34.5• Women 37.1
• Total Fertility Rate 2.07 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
United States
• % Population Aged 60+ •Men 15 •Women 18
• % 60+ Population in Labor Force •Men 23 •Women 13
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
Canada
• Total Population (in millions) – 32.5 • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
• Men 76.4 • Women 83.4
• Median Age • Men 36.9• Women 38.8
• Total Fertility Rate 1.16 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
Canada
• % Population Aged 60+ •Men 16 •Women 19
• % 60+ Population in Labor Force •Men 19 •Women 8
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
Mexico
• Total Population (in millions) – 106.2 • Life expectancy at birth (in years)
• Men 72.4 • Women 78.1
• Median Age • Men 24• Women 25.8
• Total Fertility Rate 2.45 children born/woman
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
Mexico
• % Population Aged 60+ • Men 7 • Women 8
• % 60+ Population in Labor Force • Men 65 • Women 15
Sources: CIA World Factbook,(2003); United Nations Population Division, DESA(2003);AARP2005
Percentage Population age 60 and over by world region, 2000
& 2050
Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat
Median Age by World Region 1999 & 2050
Source: World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision, Volume II: Sex and Age. The Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat
The Challenge to Labor
• Shrinking Workforces & labor shortages
• Aging workers Care demands & Needs• Pressure to ↑ immigration• ↑ cross-border outsourcing
The Challenge to Labor
• Shrinking recruitment pool (in some countries)
• mal-distribution: Understaffing in rural areas
• Mal-distribution: Understaffing, both areas rural and inner-city
• Effective skill mix and utilization