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Page 1: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial-

Dynamic Hydro-Economic Modeling Framework

Presented by Aaron Hrozencik

Dr. Dale Manning

Dr. Jordan Suter

Dr. Chris Goemans

Dr. Ryan Bailey

Page 2: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Motivation

Challenges associated with managing spatial and temporal dynamics in common pool resources

β€’ Fisheries

β€’ Ecosystem Biodiversity

β€’ Wildlife

Page 3: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 4: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 5: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 6: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Research Question:What is the value of spatially differentiated

policies to reach common groundwater

conservation goals?

Page 7: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Contribution to literature

β€’ Nested governance, spatially explicit policies

Dietz, Ostrom & Stern, 2003; Sanchirico & Wilen, 2005; Edwards, 2016

β€’ Economic literature assessing gains to groundwater management

Gisser & Sanchez, 1980; Feinerman & Knapp, 1983; Brill & Burness, 1994; Rubio & Casino, 2001

β€’ Economics of spatially explicit groundwater utilizing insights from hydrology

Saak and Peterson, 2007; Brozovic et al., 2010; Pfeiffer and Lin, 2012; Guilfoos et al., 2013, Foster et al., 2014

Page 8: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Groundwater Terminology

Saturated thickness –vertical distance of aquifer permeated by water

Hydraulic conductivity –potential velocity of lateral groundwater

Well capacity (yield) –max flow rate that a well can sustain over a period of time (gallons per minute)

Page 9: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Microeconomic Foundations

Stage 1: Planting Decision

max𝐴𝑖𝑗𝐸 𝑗=1

𝐽𝑝𝑗𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑀𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑑 , πœƒπ‘–π‘‘ , πœ™π‘– , 𝑗=1

𝐽𝐴𝑖𝑗 βˆ’ π΄π‘–π‘—π‘Ÿπ΄π‘— βˆ’ π΄π‘–π‘—π‘€π‘–π‘—π‘Ÿπ‘€

Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision

max𝑀𝑖𝑗 π‘—βˆˆπ‘… 𝑝𝑗 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑀𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑑 , πœƒπ‘–π‘‘ , πœ™π‘– , 𝐴𝑖𝑗 βˆ’ π΄π‘–π‘—π‘€π‘–π‘—π‘Ÿπ‘€

πœƒπ‘–π‘‘ ~ (πœ‡, 𝜎2)

Assumes inter-seasonal myopic behavior (Foster et al. 2014)

Page 10: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Microeconomic Foundations: Policy Options

Stage 1:

max𝐴𝑖𝑗𝐸 𝑗=1

𝐽𝑝𝑗𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑀𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑑 , πœƒπ‘–π‘‘, πœ™π‘– , 𝐴𝑖𝑗 βˆ’ 𝐴𝑖𝑗(π‘Ÿπ΄π‘—+𝜏𝐴) βˆ’ 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑀𝑖𝑗(π‘Ÿπ‘€+ πœπ‘€)

subject to 𝑗=1𝐽𝑀𝑖𝑗 ≀ π‘Š

β€’ Planting Tax

β€’ Pumping Tax

β€’ Quota

Page 11: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Hydro-Economic Model

Agronomic

Model

(Aquacrop)

Economic

Model

Hydrologic

Model

(RRCA

MODFLOW)

Hydrologic Model for RRCA designed by Slattery and Hendrix Engineering, downloaded from www.republicanrivercompact.org

Page 12: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Dynamic Linking

Groundwater levels

Well capacity

Pumping quantity

Page 13: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 14: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 15: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Results: Profit Path for 25% Reduction in Groundwater Pumping

Page 16: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Results: Uniform Policy Costs and Benefits after 50 years

Page 17: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Results: Spatially Differentiated Policy Costs and Benefits after 50 years

Page 18: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

GWMD Results

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Sand Hills Frenchman Plains Arikaree

Po

licy C

ost

s (m

illi

on

s o

f $)

Uniform Policy Spatially Differentiated Policy

Page 19: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Discussion

How do results inform management strategies for spatially dynamic common pool resources?

β€’ Hydraulic conductivity and initial average well capacity define which GWMDs are targeted in spatially differentiated policy

β€’ Incentives and disincentives for cooperation among GWMDs

Page 20: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Future Work

β€’ Distributional impacts of spatially differentiated policies.

β€’ Utilize survey instrument to elicit groundwater user preferences over management policies.

β€’ Efficiency of voting mechanisms in groundwater management policy selection.

Page 21: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Questions?

Page 22: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

β€’ Appendix

Page 23: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 24: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 25: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Pumping by well capacity bins

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 11000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Well Capacity (GPM)

Ac.

ft.

pum

ped

Reported Pumping

Simulated Pumping

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 11000

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Well Capacity (GPM)

Ac.

ft.

pum

ped

Reported Pumping

Simulated Pumping

Sandy Soil in North Region Sandy Soil in South Region

Page 26: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 27: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 28: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Agronomic Model (AquaCrop)

Generates water-crop yield production functions for

heterogeneous groundwater users accounting for variation

in:

β€’ Soil Type

β€’ Climate Zone

β€’ Weather Realization

β€’ Well Capactiy

Page 29: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Well Capacity

β€’ Maximum flow rate (gpm) that can be sustained over a period of time

Source: United States Geological Survey

Return

Page 30: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 31: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 32: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 33: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

The Case for Spatially Differentiated Policies

Homogeneous Aquifer Saturated Thickness

Page 34: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Microeconomic Foundations: Policy Options

Stage 1:

max𝐴𝑖𝑗𝐸 𝑗=1

𝐽𝑝𝑗𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑓𝑗 𝑀𝑖𝑗; 𝑐𝑖𝑑 , πœƒπ‘–π‘‘, πœ™π‘– , 𝐴𝑖𝑗 βˆ’ 𝐴𝑖𝑗(π‘Ÿπ΄π‘—+𝜏𝐴) βˆ’ 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑀𝑖𝑗(π‘Ÿπ‘€+ πœπ‘€)

subject to 𝑗=1𝐽𝑀𝑖𝑗 ≀ π‘Š

β€’ Planting Tax

β€’ Pumping Tax

β€’ Quota

Page 35: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Three management policies to address over-pumping of aquifer

β€’ Qty restrict

β€’ Uniform pumping tax

β€’ Irrigated acreage fee

Page 36: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

Table of policy type and levels

β€’ What do the spatially differentiated policies look like?

β€’ How did we characterize the heterogeneity of the spatial externality of pumping across GWMDs to inform the creation of the spatially differentiated policies

Page 37: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 38: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀
Page 39: Groundwater Management Policy Evaluation with a Spatial ...Β Β· Stage 2: Groundwater Pumping Decision max 𝑀 βˆˆπ‘…π‘ 𝐴 𝑓 𝑀 ;𝑐 𝑑,πœƒ 𝑑,πœ™ ,𝐴 βˆ’π΄ 𝑀

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