Introduction and Context
Shahid Solomon
Programme Executive, GTP
IMAGINING THE FUTURE: CAPE TOWN’S SECOND METROPOLITAN NODE
The Focus Area
1.Feeling the Temperature2.Imagining the Future 3.Exploring the Possibilities 4.Integrating and Aligning 5.International Design
Competition
FIVE PERSPECTIVES
African City
Scenarios
Corridor Structure and Place Making
Knowledge and
Innovation Hub
Network Society
Integrated TransportCorridor Corrido
r Model Mark I Mark IIMark III
FIVE THEMES
A WORLD IN TRANSITION
1771 Industrial Revolution1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways 1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity &
Heavy Engineering1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles &
Mass Production1971 Age of Information &
Telecommunications2013 Midpoint of Age of Information &
Telecommunications
2020 Era of Turbulence
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
MID CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
THE ROAD TO MID CENTURY Four Hard Riders
Five Easy Riders
Two Zebras
Seven Human Generations
Four Hard Riders
• CO2 : Climate change• Ocean acidification • Global nitrogen cycle (N) cycle • Global freshwater use • Land system change & soil loss• Biological diversity loss • Chemical pollution
1. ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY
IPCC Report 27 Sep 2013
Carbon dioxide is at an "unprecedented" level not seen for at least the last 800,000 years.
Sea level is set to continue to rise at a faster rate than over the past 40 years.
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting, glaciers and Arctic sea ice have continued to shrink.
changes seen in climate since the 1950s are "unprecedented over decades to millennia."
2. A WORLD RUN BY POWERFUL, AGEING 20TH CENTURY NATION STATES
3. GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS
More Rounds & Rounds of talking
OR
Executive Global Government ?
4. GLOBAL FINANCE
Global Casino of Financialisation
OR
Recapitalise Re-novation of Global Infrastructure ?
FIVE Easy Riders
1. LIFE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER! FOR MORE PEOPLE FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO
Population Growth Rates Declining
Better Quality of Life
Famine has become rare
People are Living 25% longer than 40 years ago
Greater choice & opportunity than ever before
Huge reductions in Poverty
Better health: lifestyle
diseases now key issue
Higher Standards of Living
GDP per person has doubled since 1970
Cost of Communication has been slashed
Price of metals & commodities reducing
More holidays, media choice, information
• The Green Wave• algal aircraft fuel• super efficient solar • composting toilets
• Internet Everywhere • Network-linked chips in everything : 1 trillion by 2025• Talking video smartphones for all• Augmented Reality• Personal Computing Device
• Biotechnology: • Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science • Redesign of the human being: Genetic Engineering & Transhumanism • Redesign of materials
2. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION: A MATTER OF TIME & MARKET
3. Other Global trends
Dematerialisation
3D Printing
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Bio feedstock & fuels
Membrane Technology
Mass Customisation
Localisation of Production
4. Fast Rail Linked to Air Transport = Aerotropolis
ELECTRIC NETWORKED-VEHICLE (EN-V)
Drives automatically and comes when you call it via iPhone
GPS, distance-sensing technology and vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems would ease congestion and reduce the risk of accidents.
At one-sixth the size of a regular car, the pods are made of lightweight materials like carbon fiber and weigh just 1,000 pounds.
You can fit five of them into one parking spot.
SMART TRANSPORT
Smart car pooling companies.
Door-to- door taxi service
Congestion Pricing
Dynamic ride sharing
Real-time transportation and driving services will be able to adjust automatically according to weather, schedule infractions and congestion
FULLY AUTOMATED VEHICLES Users can “punch in” or “speak” the place they
want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there.
will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for FLYING VEHICLES
More transport options towards 2030
electric automobiles and hybrids dominate
Self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark“Glow Roads”
And by 2050…
Bcause of friction-free technologies and advances in material science, the average passenger vehicle will weigh less than 90 kg
because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for a vehicle will be less than one hour
the cost of the average vehicle will be under R 50 000
because of the use of automated navigation systems, traffic courts will be a distant memory.
AFRICA IN TRANSITION
SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION
EASY RIDERS
Solid Financial System
Macro Economi
c Stability
White Middle Class
Black Middle Class
Tax Base
Corporate Competiti
veness
SOLID CORPORATE CORE
EMERGING MARKET LEADER : Faster GDP growth than Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey
A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY
• Population Stable & Ageing
• Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY
Country Population (millions)*
2012 2030 MID CENTURY
GAIN 2012 -MID CENTURY
SOUTH AFRICA
50 54 56 +6
TANZANIA
47 81 138 +91
NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223* UN Projections 2012
PROSPEROUS • Huge Potential of Africa• SA High Economic Competitiveness• Most sophisticated economy in Africa• Relatively declining importance of mineral
wealth
DYNAMIC Economic Nucleus of 250m in Southern Africa
HARD RIDERS : A TURBULENT MEDIUM TERM FUTURE
Motor Car
based Cities
Apartheid Cities
Low Productivi
ty
Huge Carbon
Footprint
FRACTURED CITIES
Gauteng Megalopolis
Townships
Poverty
Apartheid legacy
Poor Educatio
n & Health
Social Fragment
ation
THE TOWNSHIP THAT STAYEDFOR DINNER
High Unemploy
ment
Poor Labour
Relations
Grant Relieved Poverty
Low Skills
Growth Ceiling
FRACTURED WORKFORCE
Cheap Coal
Electricity
Cheap Labour
Minerals Export
Resource curse
Huge Carbon
Footprint
VULNERABLE MINERALS ENERGY COMPLEX
Big Government
Big Business
Big Trade Unions
Stifled Small
Business
STIFLING MONOPOLIES
YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION
1771 Industrial Revolution 1829 Start of Age of Steam
& Rail
1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering
1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production
1905 Mining Economy + Union of South Africa
1930 Resource Based Manufacturing
1960 Republic of South Africa1971 Age of Information &
Telecommunications1971 Resource Based Services
Economy 2013 Midpoint of Age of
Information & Telecomms
1994 Democratic Elections
2020 Era of Turbulence 2020
A Perfect Storm ?
2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
2030 An African Knowledge & Finance Capital ?
MID CENTURY
Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?
2050
A Wealthy African Region ?
A CORRIDOR IN TRANSITION
Corridor Transition
Period
World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response
1.Birth
1680 – 1840
Regional Wagon Route
Outspan at Hardekraaltjie
2. Urbanisation
1860 -1940
Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering
Hard Road & Railway Line
Country Villages & High Streets
3. City Integration
1940 – 1980
Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production
Commuter Rail / Bus Corridor Industrialisation
Satellite Towns & Corridor Emergence
4. Metro Sprawl
1980 – 2020
Age of Information & Telecommunications
N1 Regional Motor Corridor, Mini Bus Taxi
Corridor Decline
5. Metro Compaction
2020 – 2030
Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit, New Trains, Smart Transport Systems
Corridor Regeneration
6. Africanisation
2030 - 2040
Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
Fast Rail, Smart Vehicles
Off Grid Satellite Towns
7. Regionalism
2040 +
Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy?
Walking & Cycling
Urban Villages
CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE
BELLVILLE AT CORE OF 21ST CENTURY REGIONAL COMPLEX
Bio Silicon Valley of Africa
Regional Tourism & Services
Fast Rail connecting Airport, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Gauteng
Aerotropolis link to airport
BI – NODAL STRUCTURE OF CAPE TOWN’S URBAN CORE
Second Node
Balancing
Historic City Centre
CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE
Worst Case Scenario: Doubling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2040 will place massive carbon tax burden on growth
Urban Core is energy efficient, carbon efficient, adaptable, inclusive & sustainable alternative
INTEGRATING THE CAPE FLATS
Corridor anchors North South grid integration of Cape Flats
Second Node is connecting Hub for Symphony Way Corridor that links Khayelitsha to the Urban Core
CAPE TOWN SECOND CITY STRUCTURE PERSPECTIVE
Integrated Rapid Transit (2016) Modern Rail Fleet (2025)
CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE INNOVATION
PERSPECTIVE
CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE URBAN DESIGN
PERSPECTIVE
Bellville’s Star Shape Stretches Growth
Cape Town has Adaptable Grid to enable Cohesive Growth
STRADDLING RAILWAY LINE IS CRITICAL
COMPACT COHESIVE CITY CORE
WELL NETWORKED AND CONNECTED URBAN CAMPUS
CORRIDOR OPTIONS AND TYPOLOGIES
OPTION: HIGH VOLUME NEW WORLD
CITY CORRIDOR
OPTION: INFILL CORRIDOR
OPTION: GREEN SATELLITE CITIES
A step path into the future
CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040
URBAN ORGANISER
CID Operations
Integrated Transport Operations
Security Agency Capacity Building
CCTV
Safe Transport & Parking
Constructive Parks & Public Spaces
Problem Buildings
Clean & Safe CIDs
Great Events
Ubuntu Market
FROM AMBITION TO ACTION: TURNING POTENTIAL INTO PROSPERITY
CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040
URBAN ACUPUNTURE : 2013 - 2016
Urban Acupunture
Strategic Locations Key Intersections
Well Located Public land
Stations & Transport Interchanges
Catalytic Effect on Systems & Perceptions
Do-able within 18 months – 2 years
CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040
CATALYTIC PPP REVELOPMENT & UPGRADING: 2013 - 2016
LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING 2014 -2025
Nodal Precincts
Nodal Precinct Ha
Avail. Units
People Value
Wingfield + Transnet 321 200 40 000
160 000
R 12 Billion
Belcon 340 233 46 600186 400
R 14 Billion
Stikland Hospital 140 140 28 000
112 000
R 8.4 Billion
Tygerberg Hospital 75 75 15 000 60 000
R 4.5 Billion
876 648129 600518 400
R 38.8 Billion
CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040
URBAN ACUPUNTUTE : 2013 - 2016
LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING: 2013 – 2020
CORRIDOR INTEGRATION 2016 -2040
NEW METRO NODE 2016 -2040
THANK YOU