Guidance TAFs served by an NNEW Web Feature Service
Matt PeroutkaMeteorological Development LabNOAA/National Weather Service
Acknowledgements
• Mark Oberfield• Steve Olson
• Dan Gilmore• John Schattel
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF)
• Operational forecasts of aviation weather conditions at an aerodrome
• National Weather Service (NWS) issues TAFs at least 4 times daily for ~700 locations
• Text code form• Evolving WXXM
form
Model Output Statistics (MOS)• Successful,
operational forecast technique
• Accurate, reliable guidance
• Ceiling, visibility, and many other weather elements
• Four times daily
Model Grids
Least Squares
Regression
Sensible Weather Elements
Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)
• Update to MOS
• Focus on aviation weather elements
• Issued hourly
MOS
Least Squares
Regression
Sensible Weather Elements
Advection
Observations
Delivering LAMP
• Today– Text bulletins– Guidance TAFs in text– BUFR, GRIB
• NextGen– Grids via Web Coverage Service (WCS)– Guidance TAFs in WXXM– Probabilistic TAFs in WXXM
LAMP Experimental Guidance TAFsKBWI 212320Z 2200/2306 13003KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040
FM220200 00000KT 5SM BR SCT025 BKN040 FM220600 00000KT 3SM BR FEW002 SCT007 BKN060 FM221100 00000KT P6SM BKN120 FM221400 30007G16KT P6SM SCT050 FM222000 28008G15KT P6SM BKN250=
• Innovative technology that combines LAMP probabilities with human-issued forecasts to emphasize the strengths of both.
LAMP Experimental Guidance TAFs in WXXM
FM241300 13017KT 2SM BR OVC010CB<avwx:windSpeed uom="kt">17</avwx:windSpeed><avwx:windDirection uom="deg">130</avwx:windDirection>
<avwx:prevailingVisibility uom="SM">2</avwx:prevailingVisibility>
<wx:CloudCondition gml:id="KMEM_46"> <wx:base uom="ft">1000</wx:base> <wx:amount>OVERCAST</wx:amount> <wx:types>CUMULONIMBUS</wx:types></wx:CloudCondition>
<wx:WxCondition gml:id="KMEM_47"> <wx:weatherModifier>MODERATE</wx:weatherModifier> <wx:weatherPhenomenon>MIST</wx:weatherPhenomenon> <wx:wxCode>BR</wx:wxCode></wx:WxCondition>
LAMP TAFs in WXXM
LAMP Ceiling Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
<002 002-004 005-009 010-019 020-030 031-065 066-120
Tops of gray bars indicate Pr(cig<MVFR)
Tops of teal bars indicate Pr(cig<IFR)
LAMP TAFs in WXXM• Forecast probability
distribution of ceiling• Valuable information
for aviation decision making
LAMP Ceiling Forecast
01020304050607080
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
<002 002-004 005-009 010-019020-030 031-065 066-120
“Probabilistic TAFs” in WXXMwx:probability>4</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">0.5</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range></wx:interval>
<wx:probability>21</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">1.0</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval>
<wx:probability>65</wx:probability> <wx:interval> <wx:Range> <wx:end uom="SM">2.0</wx:end> <wx:rangeModifier>lessThan</wx:rangeModifier> </wx:Range> </wx:interval>
“Probabilistic TAFs” in WXXM
• Not just ceiling• Conditional ceiling (conditioned on
precipitation occurring)• Visibility• Conditional visibility (conditioned on
precipitation occurring)• Chance of freezing/frozen precipitation
Notional NextGen Architecture
13
Zoom in...
14
We are here. NDFD/NDGD
Collaborating to Deliver Web Services
• NOAA will have many data sources• No need for Cube Edge Input Servers (CEIS) at
every data source• MDL will implement a set of Source Service
Adapters (SSA) and transfer WXXM documents to CEIS at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)
Boulder, Colorado
Silver Spring, Maryland
Collaborating to Deliver Web Services
NDFD/ NDGD
LAMP Experimental Guidance Forecasts
NOAANet
WXXM Documents
Cube Input Edge
ServerTo the 4-D Cube
Source Service Adapter