Economics of Robots
• Staple of fiction – ancient legends to TV now• If have more of X, do you want Y more (complement)
or less (substitute)?• Machine as Substitute to human labor
– Ricardo 1821, most science fiction– Wages fall to machine cost
• Automation as Complement to human labor– Wicksell 1923, modern economics consensus– Wages have risen as automation cost have fallen
• So are robots a substitute or complement?
Robots Substitute On Task, But Tasks Are Complements
Hum
an A
dvan
tage
Useful Mental Tasks
SubstituteFor Task
HumansDo These
MachinesDo These
Tasks AreComplements
Labor Supply & Demand
Quantity
Price
wage1
Supply of Human WorkersDemand for Labor
wage3
wage2
New Demand for Labor
Supply of RobotsSupply of Robots
Guestimating Growth
1. AK growth models easily x10-1000+ faster– Now double ~15 yr., 100x => 1.8 mo.
2. Factories now double mass in 1-3 mo.1.3D printers in week?– Self-replicate plans double in 6-12 mo.?
3. History of forager, farmer, industry modes– Doubled 225Myr, 900yr, 15yr => 1-4 weeks
• Guess: ~1 month doubling time
Ways To Make Smart Robots
1. Keep writing better software– AI experts say: in 20yrs gone 5-10% to human– That says: will take 2-4 centuries to full AI– Hardware slowing, if half rate, 4-8 centuries
2. Discover a grand theory of intelligence– Or grand theory of how to learn (= “foom”)– But likely doesn’t exist, as w/ bacteria, cities
3. Port software from where it already exists
Needed To Emulate Brains
1
Computers
(many, parallel)
2
Scan – fix, slice,
2D scan
3
Model each brain cell type
Book Draft Topics
Motivation, Method, Biases, Precedents, Factors, Dreamtime, Limits, Emulations, Opacity, Hardware, Security, Time, Space, Reversing, Climate, Cooling, Buildings, Virtuality, Overlays, Fakery, Copying, Darkness, Fragility, Retirement, Death, Wages, Selection, Enough, Competition, Eliteness, Spurs, Power, Institutions, Growth, Finance, Manufacturing,
Careers, Age, Prepare, Train, Cities, Speeds, Transport, Software, Inequality, War, Clans, Nepotism, Firms, Teams, Governance, Law, Innovation, Mating, Signaling, Identity, Ritual, Conversation, Synchronization, Coalitions, Profanity, Divisions, Culture, Stories, Humans, Unhumans, Intelligence, Psychology, Alternatives, Transition, Critics, Evaluation, Policy, Charity, Success