Improving NWS Communication:Winter Hazards Simplification Demonstration
Eli Jacks, Andy Horvitz, Andrew J. Ansorge, Kim J. Runk,John Keyes, Somer A. Erickson, Gregory M. Schoor, John M. Margraf,Melody Magnus, Craig C. Schmidt, Dr. Vankita Brown, John T. Ferree
Motivation: Confusion
• Misunderstanding among “Watch”, “Warning” and “Advisory” (WWA) terms– Watch and Warning both begin with “W-A”– Too many individual “products”
• Surveys and NWS Service Assessments– A Warning is a “heads-up”, as when a policeman lets
me off with a warning – Watch is severe and urgent, as in “Hey! Watch out!
Duck!”
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What Did We Do Last Winter?A Non-Operational Demonstration!
• Developed a set of alternative terms in plain English
• Generated alternative WWA messages automatically and posted them to a demonstration web page
• Collected feedback from the public and partners
• Analyzed results & distilled high level feedback
Results were interesting and suggested next steps!3
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR A DANGEROUS SNOW STORM.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES CAUTION FOR SNOW.
Official Alternative
Proposed Alternative Approach
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Demonstration Infrastructure
• Displayed the official WWAs and the alternative messages in real-time at 26 WFOs– Requested comments from December 11, 2012
through March 31, 2013
• Benefits of dedicated web site for demonstration:– Ensured no operational impact (e.g. VTEC)– Contained materials explaining the demonstration– Enabled public/partner comments via survey form
and email address
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please [email protected]
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Knows WWA;Change OK, 253, 6.1%
Response to the Haz Simp Demo
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• Received 5201 survey responses and 965 emails
Recurring CommentsNumber of recurring comments ≠ Number of respondents
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Results/Next Steps
• Majority of respondents supported change of some sort
• Top three comments:– Use a color and/or numbering scale– Shorten the message– Keep WWA but use alternative terms to clarify
• Develop prototypes with social science support based on these key comments
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International Hazard MethodsUK Met Office
MeteoalarmVigilance météorologique
Curaçao
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE1NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST THIS EVENING...
* LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG.
* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.
* MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING.
* TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Text: How We Do It Today URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE2NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST THIS EVENING.
* LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG.
* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.
* MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING.
* TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Text PrototypeURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE3NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST. THIS MEANS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
* LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG.
* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.
* MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING.
* TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE5NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST: IMPACT SCALE IS 2, WHICH MEANS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.
* MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING.
* LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG.
* TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE4NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST. THIS MEANS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.
* MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING.
* LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG.
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG.
* TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
1 2 3 4
2 = Moderate Impact
Graphics: How We Do It Today
Graphics Prototype #1: Hazards “Pop Up” on National Map
WARNING for damaging winds and dangerous wind chills. When: [Time Period]
CAUTION advised for strong winds and low wind chills. When: [Time Period]
Graphics Prototype #2:Hazards Appear on Mouse Over
Pictogram:Conveys specific information about the weather hazard(s)
2-4”
Product Identifier/Signal Word
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: CAUTION ADVISED FOR 2-4” OF SNOW
Supplier Information
LOCATIONS: CITIES IN MARYLAND INCLUDE, WESTMINSTER, BALTIMORE
Location:Google Map; city names preferred; otherwise mountain ranges/counties/zone names
Timing:Hazard/impact timing
TIMING: NOON TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
Impacts bullets:Travel impacted, power outages, shelters, etc.
IMPACTS: UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLICK
Other weather info
WINDS: NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
Precautionary Statement:Useful actions <20 words/hazard
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT:RECOMMEND AVOID UNNECESSARY TRAVEL
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Graphics Prototype #3: Pictogram Combined with Text
Summary
• Results of the 2012-13 “Haz Simp” Demonstration indicated a majority of respondents were receptive to change
• Accordingly, we have secured NOAA social science support and will prototype a new set of ideas this coming winter for additional comment
• Your input on prototypes (or on how to best proceed with this concept) is welcomed!
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