Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling
Paul Deane
Gas - Electricity Interactions Workshop
June 2014
*
Title
Integrated Gas and electricity Modelling
What Impact will variable renewables have on the gas system?
Long term modelling to 2050
Overview of Presentation
Overview of Integrated Elec/Gas Model
Builds on existing PLEXOS Power System model
The Simplified Integrated Gas Model provides the capability to model the costs and constraints of gas delivery from its source fields via a network of pipelines, through storages and on to meet demands including those in the Electric Model.
This integrated Gas/Electric Model is not intended to perform the function of a gas pipeline flow model. Rather, it uses a simple transportation algorithm to model gas flows
Details of pipeline pressures and pressure drop functions not modelled. Storage volumes, pipeline flows and gas demands can be expressed in potential energy terms
• 2030 Model is a sub set of larger EU model.
• 15 minute resolution• Gas model is currently only
in AI• Day Ahead and Real Time
Modes (Stochastic or Independent samples)
Model Coverage
2030 Gas Model Inputs
2030 EU PRIMES Final
Demand Units Notes
Industrial Demand 656 (685) ktoe Normalised DM Data
Residential Demand 764 (600) ktoe Smart Meter Data
Services Demand 336 (400) ktoe Flat profile (needs to be improved)
Elec Gen - ktoe Optimised in Model
Moffat Daily Limits on Flow*
Kinsale Storage 8613 TJ
Kinsale Max Withdrawal (day) 97 TJ
Kinsale Max Injection (day) 63 TJ
Corrib 0 Not Currently in 2030 model
Biomethane Injection Currently in model
Addition of Gas objects will impact on objective function to be minimized
This can impact solution even if gas constraints are not binding Generally small Test and determine if significant Use MIP or smaller gap
Integrated Gas and Electricity Modelling
With GasWithout Gas
ROI Gas and Wind Generation
‘Flow’- Quantity of Gas Extracted from Pipeline (TJ)
Capacity Factors for CCGT
Annual Gas Storage (Simplified Gas Price)
Long term modelling
Only those countries with at least one MARKAL/TIMES modelling team active during the period are “painted.”
>200 MARKAL / TIMES Users
Irish TIMES Integrated Energy Systems Model• Linear programming bottom-up energy model • Integrated model of the entire energy system • Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50
years)– Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units
• Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market) • Optimal technology selection • Minimize the total system cost • Environmental constraints• Energy and emission permits trading• Price-elastic demands
Ireland Energy System 2012
Imports13,407 ktoe155 TWh
Indigenous1,304 ktoe15,165 GWh
Elec - TFC2,078 ktoe24,167 GWh
1,821 ktoe22,178 GWh
4,304 ktoe50,055 GWh
2,715 ktoe31,575 GWh
2,226 ktoe25,888 GWh
1,349 ktoe15,688 GWh
250 ktoe2,907 GWh
Oil - TPER8,307 ktoe96,610 GWh
Gas – TPER4,029 ktoe46,857 GWh
Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-80
Energy Scenarios to 2050: C02-95
Implications for the Economy (€/t CO2)
Conclusions
• Strong technical and financial challenges ahead for gas fired plant
• Long term role of gas is dependant on emission reduction ambitions and targets
• CCS, Bioenergy availability are key technology risks
• Policy: 2030 Climate and Energy targets
Thank you
www.ucc.ie/energypolicy and