Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:
Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Effie Amanatidou1, Ken Guy2
1University of Manchester/OPTIMA, PhD researcher – ATLANTIS, Director STP Unit2 Wise Guys Ltd., Director
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Presentation Contents
Interpretation of Foresight impacts•Conceptual Framework of emerging societies•Contribution of Foresight
Developing an Impact Assessment Framework•Objectives Hierarchy•Approach for developing an IAF - Foresight system•Approach for developing an IAF - Wider Environment•The Logic Model
Conclusions
Research Problem and Purpose Statement
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Research Problem & Purpose Statement
Lack of common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises irrespective of case - specific aims, objectives, levels and focus of implementation
• Need for a ‘higher level’ of reference•‘Lisbon’ agenda and more participatory governance
Need for a common impact assessment framework for good practices, coordination and benchmarking
Purpose Statement•develop an impact assessment framework as a tool with which to examine the impact of foresight exercises in developing a more participatory ‘knowledge society’, thus enabling the assessment of foresight according to criteria common across different countries or regions.
Socialmove.
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Activeparticipation
Socialtrust
Actorsallign
Dealing withuncertainty
Socialchange
Tech.change
Net-working
Socialcapital
Skills-compet.
Serviices
KbasedIndus.
Intangibles
Dominant role of
knowledge
Ways Kmediated
ICTs
Innovation-basedgrowth
Informed publics
Coping with risk society
Knowledgecreation,
absorptionlearning
Conditionfactor
K-basedinput
economy
Fact-driver
Conceptual Framework for the Emerging Societies
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Contribution of Foresight
Activeparticipation
Socialtrust
Actorsallign
Dealing withUncertainty
Socialchange
Tech.change
Net-working
Socialcapital
Skills-compet
Serviices
KbasedIndus
Intangibles
Dominant role of
knowledge
Ways Kmediated
ICT
Innovation-basedgrowth
Informed publics
Socialmove.
Coping with risk society
Knowledgecreation,
absorptionlearning
Fact-driver
Conditionfactor
K-basedinput
economy
Higher Level Goals
Higher Level Goals:CR: Coping with the ‘risk society’KS: Enhancing the ‘knowledge society’
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Objectives Hierarchy for Foresight exercises
Related Preconditions
Specific Skills Competences
Technological and Social change
(Social) Trust
Lower Level Goals
Lower Level Goals:AA: Aligning actorsN: Facilitating networkingSC: Increasing levels of social capital
Intermediate Goals
Intermediate Goals:IP: Creating informed publicsDU: Dealing with uncertaintyAP: Promoting active participationINNO: Supporting innovation-based growthCDA: Increasing knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption
IP DU INNO CDA
KS
AA N SC
AP
CR
NAA
IP
CDA
DU
AP
SC
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Approach for developing the Impact Assessment Framework – Foresight System
Actors
Pro
cesses
Inputs
Ob
jectives
Principles/ criteria
Principles / criteria
Principle/ criteria
Principles/ criteria
Principles / criteria related to actors:Non-fragmented institutionsMutual interests – common goalsInterdependence
Principles / criteria related to processes:managing of expectationsopennesstransparencyinclusiveness - early public engagementmedia coverage, promotion
Principles / criteria related to objectives:Clear, non-divergent objectivesWell grounded logic of interventionClear focus
Principles / criteria related to inputs / outputs: quality relevance timing
(based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta)
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Approach for developing the Impact Assessment Framework – Wider Environment
Actors
Pro
cesses
Inputs
Ob
jectives
Institutional settingsActors’ configuration
- communication
Governance Policy-making culture
Socio-cultural context
Structure of innovation process – advance-
ment of KS
Changing political circumstancesInterested customers with absorptive capacities Engage those who make policy, have ability to take action
Fragmentation in policy system Degree of development of planning processes and consultationDegree of party political divideTiming and level of commitment
Society in favour of change / innovationPerception of other actors’ roles, and interests Degree of divisiveness and individuality in the societyGeneration gap
Degree of inter-institutional communication and collaborationDegree of inter-disciplinary collaboration Degree of public-private sector divide
(based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta)
NAA
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Impact Assessment Framework - Foresight System
Actors
Pro
cesses
Inputs
Ob
jectives
Principles/ criteria
Principles / criteria
Principle/ criteria
Principles/ criteria
Principles / criteria related to actors:•Inter-institutional communication and collaboration•Mutual interests •Low dependence
Principles / criteria related to processes:•inclusiveness •flexibility•Sustainability of networks created
Principles / criteria related to objectives:•Goals alignment
Principles / criteria related to inputs / outputs:compatibility / complementary areas of expertise
(specifically for impacts related to networking and actors’ alignment)
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Impact Assessment Framework – Wider Environment
Actors
Pro
cesses
Inputs
Ob
jectives
Institutional settingsActors’ configuration
- communication
Governance Policy-making culture
Socio-cultural context
Structure of innovation process – advance-
ment of KS
•Degree of inter-institutional communication and collaboration•Low dependencies •Goals alignment
•The degree the government and regulatory contexts promotes networking
•Trust•Perceptions alignment•Peoples individual characteristics •Social context
Alignment of •solution with funder gover/nce•solutions and current trends •players with other players•compet. and collab. techn.
(specifically for impacts related to networking and actors’ alignment)
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
The Logic Model (incorporating Objectives Hierarchy-Foresight System-Wider Environment)
IP DU INNO CDA
KS
AA N SC
AP
CRUpper System Upper System GoalsGoals
Strategic Strategic Goals/ImpactsGoals/Impacts
Lower level Lower level Goals/ImpactsGoals/Impacts
Outcomes immediate impacts
Foresight activities
Inputs
New combinations stakeholders
Visions for the future
Changes of mindsets
Multi-disciplinary research
……
Scoping Appointment of experts
Commission studies, workshops
Communication of findings
Funding, Personnel, Past results, Data, Experts, etc.
Foresight System internal criteria related to:
Actors
Processes
Objectives
Inputs/ Outputs
Wider environment external factors related to:
Institutional settings, Actors’ configuration – communication
Governance / Policy-making culture
Socio-cultural context
Structure of innovation process – advancement of KS
Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps Steps ttowards owards tthe Development he Development oof f a Framework a Framework cconceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’onceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’
Conclusions•It is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory ‘knowledge societies’.•In doing this it is important to understand how foresight influences specific impact areas.•This in turn presupposes understanding of the dynamics of foresight systems and their interaction with the wider environment.•It is possible to build models that help identify internal criteria and external factors to understand how a foresight system works and how it should work.•Each impact area should also be studied separately in order not to miss additional area-specific internal criteria and external factors that have to be considered.•The impact assessment framework can then be built according to the Logic Model approach.