IS THE ASEAN SINGLE AVIATION MARKET TRULY GOING TO BE SINGLE?
Dr. Alan Khee-Jin Tan
Professor of Aviation LawFaculty of Law, National University of Singapore
Market Opportunities after Open Skies• Intra-ASEAN International Markets up to 2000 nm [Source: Embraer, 2014]
b 31-50
c 51-80
d 81-100
e 101-130
f 131-150
g 151-170
h 171-200
i >200
45
17
5
24
27
12
13
6
3
4
58
NoYes
Number of Markets
Pass
enge
r Dai
ly E
ach
Way
Market Served?
Kota-Kinabalu
Kuala Namu
Singapore
JakartaSurabaya
Denpesar
Kuching
Ho Chi Minh
Bangkok
Yangon
Phuket
Indonesia – Liberalization BenefitsSource: CARI Lifting the Barriers Report, 2013
Additional GDP 7 trillion Rupiah (US$679 million)[6% increase from 2010 levels]
Additional jobs created 32,000[7% increase from 2010 levels]
Decrease in real air fares 2.5% per annum
Additional international passenger traffic attributable to ASEAN Open Skies
16.3 million per year by 2025[24.5% of total additional international
traffic over 2010 levels]
Additional international air freight traffic attributable to ASEAN Open Skies
290,000 tonnes per year by 2025[21.6% of total additional international air
freight traffic over 2010 levels]
3rd/4th Freedom: Any Home Point to Another Point, including non-capitals; Indonesia and Laos still not parties
What’s Missing (for post-2015):
7th freedom?
Cabotage/Domestic/8th/9th? – sensitive!
Community Carrier without restrictions
Technical harmonization? Start with harmonized (need not be identical) standards and mutual recognition. E.g. pilot and crew certification, safety checks and enforcement
ASEAN-China 5th Freedoms. Meaningless with secondary cities only
LPQ
CNXDAD
XMN
LOP
SIN
BWN
BKI
CBU
MDL
KOS
URC
FOCKMG
HHAKWL
NNG
CKG
CTU
XIY CGO