The Future of Marine Weather Forecasting
Joe Sienkiewicz
Chief, Ocean Applications Branch
www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov1
1/30/2012 TSA 2012, Newport, RI
• Ocean Prediction Center• Graphical Product Suite• Transition to Gridded Production• Increasing Arctic Focus
• Satellite Readiness• Ocean Vector Winds
• Lessons learned• Ongoing opportunities
• Preparing for new capabilities
• Oceanographic Focus• Analyses and forecasts
• Ensemble Forecast Techniques• Probabilistic fields• Extend forecast period ( to10 days)
• Tropical Cyclones• Waves…
• Ocean, near shore2
Outline
Safety of Life At Sea, 1974
• Chapter IV – Radio Communication
• GMDSS
• Chapter V – Safety of Navigation
• Meteorological services
3
IMO Convention Link
OPC mission/responsibility• Protection of life and property, safety at sea, and
enhancement of economic opportunity
• Partially fulfill U.S. responsibilities with the World Meteorological Organization and Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS)
• Forecast support
– Government incident response (USCG,NOAA)
– Government operations (USCG, Navy, NOAA)
• Science based organization
4
NOAA Forecast Responsibility
High Seas Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12
5
6
Grid Domains
5 km resolution –- covers offshore domains- basis for GRIB files
More than Grids• Basis for legacy text products via formatter
– Role of forecaster changes
• Interact with grids not typing and drawing
• Economize forecast production
– Allow focus farther out in time
• Polygons for warning areas
• Electronic Charting displays
– WMO committee working on weather elementsfor S-57 compatibility (will include gridded info)
• GIS compatible formats8
Atmospheric Model Improvements
• Higher resolution – NAM 4 km
– Crosses important boundary ~6-8 km
– Convection driven
• Severe Weather
• Aviation
• (benefits all communities, marine applications)
• Optimize input data sources
• Verification
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 9
4 km NA Mesoscale Model
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 10
4 km NA Mesoscale Model
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 11
4 km NA Mesoscale Model
12
4 km NA Mesoscale Model
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 13
Requirements for Mid and High Latitude Applications
Joe SienkiewiczNOAA / NWS Ocean Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland
Satellite Readiness / Optimization
14
ASCAT on EUMETSAT METOP-A
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/
OSCAT on Indian OceanSat-2
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 16http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/oscat_50_prod/oscat_app.cgi
OSCAT and ASCAT combined
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 17
High resolution Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW) fully integrated into operations
• Twice daily near complete wind field
• Increased situational awareness
• Improved detection and warning capability
• Enhanced understanding of winds over oceans
• Allowed focus on extreme cyclones (Hurricane Force)
18
Pacific Cup Weather Seminar – San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010
QuikSCAT Winds0945 UTC 13 March 2006
Wind Speed in knots
Pacific Cup Weather Seminar – San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010
22c
8c
25c
15c
6c
1c
Geostationary SatelliteSea Surface Temperature
Pacific Cup Weather Seminar – San Rafael, CA 6/26/2010
Wind Speed Difference between QuikSCAT and NCEP GFS Model0900 UTC 13 March
Wind Speed difference (QuikSCAT-GFS Model)Under forecast - Over forecast
11 9
23
14
24 23
15
22
3733
3134
64
51
39
4945
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Cyclones
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Atlantic
Pacific
Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones –Detection and Warning Trend using QuikSCAT
2000-2009
•Hurricane Force Warning Initiated Dec 2000 •Detection increased with:
-Forecaster familiarity-Data availability-Improved resolution -Improved algorithm
QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99
Hurricane Force Wind WarningInitiated Dec 00
25 km QuikSCATAvailable in N-AWIPS
Oct 01
12.5 km QuikSCATavailable May 04
Improved wind algorithm and rain flag Oct 06
TotalsA-289P-269558
WARNINGCATEGORIES
Pre- QSCAT1. GALE 34-47 kt
2. STORM >48
QSCAT ERA1. GALE 34-47 kt
2. STORM 48 -63 kt3. HURCN FORCE
> 64 kt
May 19, 2010 22OVWST, Barcelona Spain
Forecaster estimated Hurricane Force cyclones Sep 09-Apr 2010
• Atl – below previous 5 yr average (43)DJFM A– (32.6) 22
• Pac – at avg. (40.2)DJFMA – (29.8) 28
• *highly subjective post QuikSCAT
May 19, 2010 OVWST, Barcelona Spain 23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Atlantic Pacific
31
40
2009-10
Atlantic
Pacific128 With
QSCAT
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 More
8yr
Freq
uenc
y D
istr
ibut
ion
Max Deepening Rate (hPa/24hr)
Distribution of 24hr Max Deepening Rate8yr Totals
2001-2009 Climatology
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Ave
rage
num
ber
of H
F cy
clon
es (
8yrs
)
Month
8yr Average Monthly Distribution
Feb 23, 2010 24AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR
Peak activityDec, Jan – PacificJan, Feb – Atlantic
AtlanticPacific
Deepening RatesExplosive deepeners “Bombs”
Pacific faster deepeners
Bombs
Hazard toopen Waves
Geographic Distribution of Hurricane Force Extra-tropical Cyclones
North Atlantic4,000/yr container transits
1,000/yr bulkers
North Pacific6,000/yr container transits
1,500/yr bulker
Feb 23, 2010 25AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR
Primary impact - open oceanDo make landfall
Waves impact coasts
Gale Force Wind Frequency
Storm Force Wind Frequency
QuikSCAT composites of cyclones at HF Intensity
Hurricane Force Wind Frequency
Feb 23, 2010 26AGU Ocean Sciences 2010, Portland, OR
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000 2000
3000
30003000
Range rings -1000 km increments
~ 500 wind fields forcomposites
Cyclones~6000 km diameter
asymmetric wind field
HF winds~ 1000 km S of center
• Hurricane Force Winds
– Successfully modeled
– Onset, rapidly deepening phase
– Bent-back front, key ingredient for low level jet
– Meso to small synoptic scale
– Need validation effort for extreme conditions!!
– Using results to tailor ensemble based forecast guidance
Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model Results
WRF - 10m Winds 925 hPa - Frontal zones
WRF Simulation Pacific Feb 2008 cyclone
27
Day 2/4 Cyclone Forecast Verification•Track error comparable to NHC Atlantic TC error (~25 nm/12 hrs)
•Under predict depth and wind speed at day 4
•Forecast challenges remainbasically can predict a major cyclone and where
intensity remains a challenge
Experimenting with ensemble approach•Promising but lacking representation of higher wind speeds
Ensemble wind speed probabilities
34 kt 48 kt 34 kt 48 kt
60 kt 64 kt 60 kt 64 kt
F24 F96
28
Altimeter Wave HeightsJason, Jason2, Envisat, Cryosat
CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 29
http://www.altimetry.info/html/appli/atmosphere/wind_wave_en.html
30
Satellite Altimeter Wave HeightsSignificant Wave Height
Average of 1/3 highest waves (feet)
57-66 ft
290 nm>45ft
600 nm>30ft
North Atlantic Feb 14, 2011
GOES-R Preparation
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 31
Meteosat Second GenerationRGB Airmass Product
GOES-R Preparation
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 32
Meteosat Second GenerationRGB Airmass Product
EUMETSAT RGB Airmass Imagery
• Foci
– Extreme ocean storms
– Visibility and fog
– Offshore convection
– Oceanographic applications
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 33
GOES-R PreparationNASA SpORT GOES-R
Increasing Oceanographic FocusSatellite based analyses
Numerical model predictions(Navy Coastal Ocean Model)
(NOAA Real Time Ocean Forecast System)
34
GOES Satellite Sea Surface Temperature
35
RTOFS-GlobalExample surface currents
from
NOAA Real Time Ocean
Forecast System Global
With NAVY
NAVY Coastal Ocean Model
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/newNCOM/NCOM_currents.shtml
37
SurfaceCurrent(knots)
SurfaceTemp
(deg C)72 hourLoop
3 hourly
Extra-tropical Storm Surge Model
38
subinertial waves
Cold wake
Real time testing
for 2008 hurricane
season (Ike).
Realistic Oceanic
Simulation and
Response to a
Storm!
Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Model - HYCOM
Wind Against Current• Can generate square breaking waves
• Guidance product becoming available via web
– NCOM and NOAA Global Forecast System Winds
• Demo higher resolution NCOM and NOAA NAM
40
Ensemble forecast approach
CMA 2010, Stamford, CT
Low positions – 90 member: 50 ECMWF, 20 GFS, 20 CMC
3/24/2010 41
ENSEMBLE 4 day Storm Track
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 42
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 43
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/windprob.shtml
CMA 2010, Stamford, CT
GALE STORM
60 kts HURRICANE FORCE
44
ENSEMBLE – VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.5 nm
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 45
Tropical Cyclones
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 46
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/47
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 48
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 49
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 50
GOALS
• 20% reduction of track and intensity error over 5 years• 50% reduction of track and intensity error over 10 years with forecast to 7 daysApproach • address observations, physics, air-sea-wave processes
OCEAN WAVES
51
Waves /inundation• Present capability illustrated with test runs for
hurricane Gustav.
– Grid resolution up to 400m, working on 100m grids.
– Dynamic inundation using ADCIRC water levels.
Humboldt Bar – Waves/CurrentNWS Eureka
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 53
Waves• Igor in the multi-grid hurricane
wave model:
– 7.5km coastal resolution.
– Shallow water physics.
– Note shadow zones behind Bahamas and Bermuda (!).
– Wave system based wind sea and swell separation (from USACE)
Wind Fetch – Cape Flattery, WA
http://ftp.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ppt/Tall_Ships_2012/Swell.wmv
To see the swell developRapidly and head towardEurope click the linkOrange is swell of 20 secor more period
ASCAT (NOAA) GFS14– 0013 UTC F72 VT 14-0000
OSCAT ``` ECMWF 11f7214-0155 UTC F72 VT 13-0000
NOAA – Increasing Arctic Focus
• Satellite based ice analyses
NWS Alaska Region and Ocean Prediction Center Arctic Web Page
http://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/
GEFS Ensemble Probability winds 25 kt or higher
Navy NCOM Ocean Surface CurrentNOAA OI SST with Ice Edge
- Marine focused human forecast guidance - Day 1-5- Oceanographic and probabilistic guidance to Day 3
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 61
Ecological PredictionSea Nettles
3/24/2010 CMA 2010, Stamford, CT 62
http://chesapeakebay.noaa.gov/forecasting-sea-nettles
Cross disciplineCross organizationsInputs
SSTSalinity
Summary• Traditional marine weather services
– Transitioning to gridded based production
– Grids open up possibilities of new products
• Expanding into operational oceanography
• Optimizing data usage to improve services
– Satellite sources
– Conventional data sources (ships and buoys)
• Increasing use of Ensemble based information
– Primarily internal guidance (now)
– Basis for products of future
• Improvements to Hurricane and Wave prediction
• Ecological Prediction next evolution63