Just the Facts:Montana’s Adult Learners and Workforce
Needs
Barbara WagnerSenior EconomistMontana Department of Labor and IndustryResearch and Analysis Bureau
Presented at the Governor’s Forum on Adult Credentialing, Kalispell Montana, August 12, 2010
Today’s Topics
1. Drawing the Connection between Education and the Economy
2. Education as an Economic Development Tool
3. Education and Workforce Training – Helping Workers Adjust to a Changing Economy
Per Capita Income by State, 2008
CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI
MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ
NM SC UTWV
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Montana: $34,622
Percent of Population with High School Diploma
CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI
MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ
NM SC UTWV
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009 and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008
Education and Income are Positively Correlated
CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI
MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ
NM SC UTWV
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009 and Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008
Percent of Population with College or Advanced Degrees
CTMA WY VA CA CO WA HI NV ND NE KS SD WI
MEMO OK NC GA MT AZ
NM SC UTWV
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
College Degrees Advanced Degrees
Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009
Wages for MT Jobs by Minimum Training Category
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000
$91,106
$63,797
$46,227
$39,252
$40,563
$25,829 Short or Medium Term On-the-Job Training
Long-Term OJT or Related Work Expe-rience
Associate’s or Vocational Training
Bachelor’s Degree
Bachelor’s with Work Experience or Master’s
Doctorate or Professional Degree
MT Poverty Rate by Educational Attainment
Less
than HS
HS Diploma
Some Colle
ge or A
ssocia
te's Degre
e
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate
or Professi
onal Degre
e0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Source: American Community Survey, 2007-2009. Population over 25 for whom status has been determined.
US Unemployment Rates by Education Level
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
College Graduates
Less than Bachelor’s Degree
Less than a HS Diploma
HS Graduate
Source: Current Population Statistics
Montana Unemployment Rate by Education Level, 2010 1st Half
Unemployment Rate
Less than a HS Diploma 18.1%
HS Graduate or GED 12.0%
Some College, No Degree 8.3%
Associate Degree 8.6%
Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 3.8%
Source: Current Population Statistics
Take-away Points:Why Education Matters to the Economy
• Education is highly correlated with other economic indicators:– Per capita income– Labor force participation– High wages– Lower unemployment
• High-skill workers are more productive and more capable of developing improvements in technology or process.
How is Montana Doing?MT Percent of
Population Over 25
National Average Rank among 50 States
High School Diploma
90.9% 85% 5
College Degree 27.1% 27.7% 22
Advanced Degree
8.4% 10.2% 34
Percent of Population with an Upper Secondary Degree
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2005
MT Educational Attainment is Decreasing in Lower Age Groups
25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 64 years Over 650%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
92.3% 92.9% 93.1%
81.3%
27.9% 29.0% 29.3%20.5%
High School Diploma Bachelor's DegreePercent of Population 25 Years and Older with
MT Jobs by Minimum Training Category
Long-term OJT or Related Work Ex-
perience15%
Doctoral or Pro-fessional Degree
2%
Short to Moderate OJT56%
Bachelor's with Work Experience
or Master's5%
Bachelor's12%
Associate's or Vocational Train-ing
10%
Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, 2009
How to Attract More Knowledge-Based Jobs
• Create seamless and integrated workforce training and education system to develop workers from kindergarten through graduate school to continuing workforce education.
• Create trade organizations to help foster technology diffusion and continued education for professionals.
• Attract science, technology, and professional services jobs by having a well-educated workforce.
• Attract entrepreneurs to start businesses in Montana with our quality of life and access to outdoors, but improve transportation so they can still access customers.
Today’s Topics
1. Drawing the Connection between Education and the Economy
2. Education as an Economic Development Tool
3. Education and Workforce Training – Helping Workers Adjust to a Changing Economy
Significant Loss of Jobs in the 2007-2009 Recession
2007 2008 2009 201090%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
U.S. 5.4% Job Loss
MT 3.5% Job Loss
Source: Current Employment Statistics, 2007 through June 2010 preliminary
Recession Job Losses by Industry
Mining and Logging, -1,000
Construction, -9,600
Manufacturing, -3,000Trade and Transportation; -
3,400
All Other, -2,500
Professional and Business Services; -
3,600
Leisure Activities; -5,100
Health Care and Government: Plus 9,800 Jobs
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 4th quarter 2007 to 4th quarter 2009
Regional Impact of RecessionAnnual Job Growth by Region, 2007 Q4 to 2009 Q4
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Northwest Southwest North Central South Central Eastern State
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
Occupations with the Largest Losses Statewide
Occupation Estimated Recession Losses
Carpenters -2,010Retail Salespersons -1,398Construction Laborers -1,066Cashiers -851Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks -697Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -622Electricians -513Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators -450Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters -445General and Operations Managers -435
Ten Occupations with the Largest Losses in Northwest MT
OccupationNumber of Jobs Lost
Carpenters -640Retail Salespersons -530Cashiers -300Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks -300Construction Laborers -290Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -270Waiters and Waitresses -250Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food -220Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators -200Electricians -190
Some Jobs will Return, but Excess Supply of Workers will Continue
Job Losses
Projected Annual Growth
Years to Full
Employment
Carpenters -640 20 32Retail Salespersons -530 91 6Cashiers -300 21 14Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Audit Clerks -300 52 6Construction Laborers -290 11 27Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer -270 15 18Waiters and Waitresses -250 33 8Food Preparation and Serving Workers -220 34 7
Operating Engineers -200 9 23Electricians -190 7 28
Top Ten Occupations with Job Losses in Northwest Montana with Projected Openings
Ten Growing Occupations with Unmet Demand for Workers
Occupation
Projected Annual Growth
Registered Nurses 98Accountants and Auditors 72Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 72Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing 70Office Clerks, General 66Cooks, Restaurant 63Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 61Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 53Personal and Home Care Aides 52Lawyers 47
Directing Displaced Workers into Appropriate Occupations
• Workforce training and education are needed to retrain into growing occupations that don’t have excess supply.
Excess Workers Occupations
Retail Salespeople
Carpenters or Construction Laborers
Wait Staff
Occupations that Need Workers
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing
Maintenance and Repair Workers
Lawyers?
Thank you.
Please visit www.ourfactsyourfuture.orgto view Dr. Eldridge’s presentation.