KENYAN VISION 2040
CONTRIBUTED BY:
PRESENTATION TO THE “20TH ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2013” AT TOM
MBOYA LABOUR COLLEGE, KISUMU
We are not aloneN = R*. fp. ne. fl. fi fc. L (DR. FRANK DRAKE’S EQUATION)
N = Number of communicative civilisations in the Milky Way at our current level of civilisation;
R* = Rate of formation of “sun like” stars;fp = Fraction of those stars (*R) that have planets;
ne = Number of “earth like” planets per star that has planets;
fℓ = Fraction of earth like planets (ne) where life actually develops;
fi = Fraction of life sites ( fℓ ) where intelligence develops;
fc = Fraction of intelligent civilizations (fi) that develop detectable communication in space;
L = “Lifetime" of communicating civilizations;
What shall we tell the alien?How we elect leaders to lord over us whether in
democracy or communism or many other confused systems – he will not be interested
How we deliver justice arbitrarily – he will not be interested
Our pastimes: football, dancing, weddings and bull fighting – he will not be interested
Our senseless habits bordering on insanity where we overfeed then spend a great deal of time and resources reducing accumulation of fat in our bodies - he will not be interested
If our experience with UFOs and crop circles can guide us then what the alien wants to know is simply our technological advancement of which the Engineer and the scientist are the custodians
238 m diameter crop circle in the form of a double triskelion on an oats field, England, 2001.Origin: unknown
Crop circle or formation
Our salvation lies in Vision 2040
ContentsVision 2040: Targets and requirementsRecent railway development in NairobiApprehension about large infrastructure projectsPurpose built cities and designated transport
corridorsFunding Vision 2040 projectsEngineering opportunitiesVision 2040: Developing infrastructureCase studies for passengers and freight transportTypical minor challenges building a railwayBenefits of building railwaysThank you
Vision 2040: Objectives
A first world economy;Learned, well educated and well informed population;Economic, scientific and technological super power;Adequate military strength;Living in harmony with the Environment;*“Healthy food” secure (a healthy nation from
balanced diet, focused primary health care and general peace of mind);
A peaceable, tranquil and progressive country in harmony with all neighbours and all nations in the Universe.
Requirements: Transport Infrastructure
To achieve Vision 2040 transport infrastructure development will be one the key pillars.
Develop transport infrastructure well connected in the country and into the region for Kenya to be the preferred transport and logistics hub in the region
Assist neighbouring countries to connect their transport infrastructure to the Kenyan network;
Create and define in law “trunk” transport infrastructure corridors.
Requirements: Others
Abandon oil exploration and exploitation within Kenya;
*But, refine any all crude oil from the Region passing through Kenya;
Reduce to a minimum reliance on off-shore tourism and diaspora handouts;
*Nurture and develop local, corporate and individual (US$) billionaires within the shortest possible time;
Develop new purpose built cities;Assist neighbouring countries to achieve
first world economic status;
Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation
Road:Small passenger volumes over short and medium
distancesParcels (smalls) over short distancesUndefined origin and destinations (the last mile)Long distance freight
Airports:Passengers over medium and long distances (≥ 800 km)High valued parcelsLeisureDefence
Water:High volumes passengers over short distances such as
ferriesLeisure (ocean cruises and inland waters leisure boats)FishingIntercontinental high volume freight (containers, fluids and
dry cargo)Inland waters – leisure and bulk freight
Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation (cont.)
Pipeline:Bulk fluids (water, petroleum products, natural gas)Sewer
Power linesElectricity
Fibre optic cablesSpeech and data
RailwayHigh volume passengers over short, medium
and long distancesHigh volume freight overland for short and
long distances (including intercontinental transport)
antiquated
Typical high volume short distance rail passenger service; showing also multipurpose use of a railway corridor
FROM
Syokimau Railway Station Train on platform
TO
TO
Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facility
TO
Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facility
TO
Imara Daima Railway Station under construction (60% complete)
Makadara Railway Station under construction (70% complete)
Developing Large Projects
Mindset about large infrastructure projects particularly for public transport
General bitterness over money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephants
Unnecessary public/media scrutiny benefiting auditors, NGOs, agitators and lawyers; discouraging developers, engineers and users;
Remember: these are teething problems all countries go through on the road to full development status
100%
0%
1960/70s 1980s 1990s 2000 2010
8.5%
Infrastructure Projects “Eating” curve
Residual “eating” level
Cost of recovering the 8.5% is greater than cost of the whole project
Vision 2040: Purpose-built Cities
Lamu: Deep water seaport for Post Panama-X vessels (petroleum oil tankers,
edible oil tankers, container ships and general freight ships)
Isiolo: Oil refinery, petrochemical industries, products marketing and
distribution centre Transport and logistical hub for Northern Kenya, Ethiopia and South
Sudan
Homa Bay: Free Port to serve the Great Lakes Region
Nairobi : Regional financial hub Transport and logistical hub for the Great Lakes Region
Lodwa/Turkana: Bread basket for strategic food reserve – irrigated and natural
commercial farming and livestock production; Agro industries; animal food products industries
Purpose built cities and Trunk transport Corridors (red) for Vision 2040
Transport corridors
Secure and designate transport corridors sufficient for all the anticipated transport elements to speed up development process;
Transport infrastructure development should not be left in the hands of counties;
Undertake robust studies to identify the most appropriate modes of transport to be promoted within a corridor
•Crude and refined petroleum oil pipelines connects the Port to Isiolo.
•All transport infrastructure elements provided between Lamu and Isiolo
LAMU DEEP WATER SEAPORT
Proposed Lamu Port: Location
Isiolo Crude Oil Refinery
Capacity > 200,000 barrels per day;Crude and refined petroleum oil pipeline to Juba and Lamu;Refined petroleum oil pipeline to Addis Ababa and Nairobi;Transport infrastructure elements between Isiolo, Nairobi, Juba and Addis Ababa
Isiolo Petrochemical Industries
Aim at 100% value addition on any crude oil passing through Kenyan Soil
Homa Bay Duty Free Port strategically located to serve the Great Lakes Region
Homa Bay Duty Free Port
Provide easy access from Airport,ample supply of electricity, water and communication
Typical Financial District proposed for Upper Hill Nairobi
Modern mechanised Farming for food security proposed for Turkana County. Note: Turkana County has more arable land and fresh water than Israel!
Modern mechanised large scale livestock production proposed for Turkana County
Funding Vision 2040 projectsDo not under-rate your Government’s capacity to mobilise funds when the need arises. Sources:GoK budgets (60%):
Vision 2040 development levy – 40%Taxation – 10%Capital Markets 10%
GoK borrowing (27%):Concessional loans = 15%Commercial loans =10% (8% locally, 2% offshore)String-less grants = 2%
Private investment = 8% (keep it very low – citizens have no control over private investors leading losses and delays to projects and poor quality of service delivery)Miscellaneous = 5%
Engineering opportunitiesChinese Adage: In a country where engineers
have small minds, their Government will think small; in a country where engineers have big minds, their Government will always find money from “somewhere” for big projects;
Vision 2030 was driven and owned by economists, political scientists, prophets, politicians and other “soft” scientists – result: dismal achievement so far;
Vision 2040 to be owned and driven by those engineers who have BIG MINDS.
China, South Korea, Japan, the US are seeking new homes for their large scale industries suitable for Vision 2030 objectives;
Appropriate transport: Case study – Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail commuter servicesNairobi – Thika super-highway10 lanes220+ metres corridorHypothetical capacity = 1,800 vehicles per hour per
lane (beyond this, congestion would reduces rate of flow of vehicles)
Environmental pollution = highTotal delivery at both ends = 41,400 passengers per
hour (discounting car-pooling and assuming 2.3 passengers per vehicle to take into account buses and mini-buses)
Cost per Km = US$ 7.92 million (excluding land acquisition, demolitions and relocation expenses
Commuter Rail systemExisting dilapidated Nairobi – Ruiru line delivers 20,000
passengers within a span of four hour between Nairobi and Ruiru (operations are limited to morning and evening peak hours)
Corridor width = 30 metres After modernisation: frequency of trains = one (1) train
movement every three minutes in each direction,Capacity per train: 1,800 passengers (each train has 10
coaches of capacity 180 passengers)Hypothetical delivery: 72,000 per hour (20 trains reaching
either destination per hour)Estimated delivery: 50,400 per hour (assuming 70%
operational efficiencyCost of double track railway (Nairobi - Thika) per Km ≈
US$ 2.97 million
Appropriate transport: case study – Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail
commuter services
Item Nairobi – Thika Highway
Nairobi – Thika Railway
Number of lanes 10 Two (2) tracks
Corridor width 120 metres 30 metres
Delivery at both ends
41,400 p/hour 50,400 p/hour
Two (2) lane delivery for comparison
8,280 p/hour 50,400 p/hour
Efficiency of delivery
1 6.1
Environmental pollution
High Low
Cost of installation 7.92 US$ M/km 2.97 US$ M/km
Capital cost comparison
2.67 1
Cost of operation High Low
Summary of Comparisons
A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport corridorRoad transportEstimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country in
2020 ≈ 25 million tonnesNumber of lanes required = 8Corridor width = 150+ metresHypothetical number of trucks required = 2,869 vehicles
per day (assuming each vehicle carrying 35 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 70% operation efficiency) = 120 vehicles per hour
Average delivery speed = 21 Km/hr (i.e. 24 hours from Mombasa to Nairobi including disruptions at weighbridges and checkpoints)
Environmental pollution = highCost per Km = US$ 6.34 million (excluding land acquisition
and relocation expenses
A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport
Railway freight transportEstimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country
in 2020 ≈ 25 million tonnesNumber of lanes required = single trackCorridor width = 30 metres (minimum = 20 metres)Hypothetical number of trains per day = 19
(assuming each train carrying 4,000 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 90% operation efficiency)
Average delivery speed = 65 Km/hr (i.e. 8 hours Kilindini to Embakasi)
Environmental pollution = lowCost of construction per Km = US$ 2.86 million
(excluding land acquisition and relocation expenses
Item Mombasa – Nairobi Road
Mombasa - Nairobi Railway
Freight volume 25 million tonnes 25 million tonnes
Corridor width 100+ metres 30 metres
Number of trucks/trains
*2,869/day 19/day
Number of lanes/tracks
8 1
Average delivery speed
21 Km/hr 65 Km/hr
Environmental pollution
High Low
Cost of construction
6.34 US$ M/km US$ 2.86 M/Km
Capital cost comparison
2.22 1
Cost of operation High Low
Summary of Comparisons
*One (1) track loaded with 35 tonnes of freight leaving the Port every 30 seconds
240 TEUs container train compared to a loaded truck with one (1) 40-foot container
Comparative costs for long distance delivery:•Truck = US$ 0.12 per tonne-km•Rail = US$ 0.065 per tonne-km•Cost of transport reduced on average by 46%
E.g. container MSA - KLA•Road = US$ 3,025•Rail = US$ 1,788•Savings = 41%
Section Challenge Mitigation
Changamwe to Mazeras
Steep climb and raged terrain
Cuttings and viaducts
Tsavo National park
Environmental Fencing, animal underpass
Chyulu water tower
Environmental Viaducts
Nairobi to Kedong Valley to Longonot
Steep descent and raged terrain
Deep cuttings, viaducts and tunnels
MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges
Section Challenge Mitigation
Mbaruk swamp Environmental Mitigation: a cluster of culverts
Nakuru to Timboroa
Steep ascent out of Rift Valley
Two tunnels ≈ 1.5 km each
Timboroa to Kisumu
Steep descent, ragged terrain into the Lake Basin
Viaducts, long bridges
Whole system Land compensation and PAPs relocation
Minimise
MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges
Kisumu Branch Line – steep descent and rough terrain
Kisumu Branch Line – a typical challenge
Kisumu Branch Line – gorge
Building a railway: BenefitsJobs creationDirect jobs creation {at least 60 jobs per kilometre of
track (Mombasa –Nairobi Railway will create 30,000 jobs with a dwell time of 5-years)}
Jobs creation from rapid industrialisation ≈ 10,000 (large quantities of local inputs such as steels, cement, aggregates, electricity transmission poles and cables, roofing materials, glass, plastics, rubber etc. all made locally will be required)
Jobs creation from service industry ≈ 3,000 (providers of foods, accommodation and leisure)
Jobs creation from developed skills ≈ 3,000 (self employment after the project by masons, carpenters, mechanics and electricians)
Development of skills: For future use locally, regionally and globally
Operating a railway: BenefitsJobs creation Mombasa – Nairobi RailwayDirect employment ≈ 4,000Supply chain ≈ 2,000Service providersReduced cost of transportationCompetitive tariffsSafer roadsReduced accidents causing loss of life, injury
and damage to propertyPleasant environmentReduced pollution
Operating a railway: Benefits (cont.)
Savings in foreign exchange: Less fuel requirement for transportation
Appreciation of property value along the corridor
*Decongestion of major cities: Living further from working place
Industrialisation along the railway corridor: Easy access and cheaper means of transportation
Annual GDP growth of at least 1%: Increasing volumes of regional trade
SUMMARYThe Aliens will soon be with us here. We must
prepare to show them robust technology, failing which they will subject us to slavery, abuse and colonialism;
VISION 2040 is our salvation;Engineering, science and technology is the route
to that salvation;Only engineers can deliver that salvation;The aliens will only spare this country the agony
of slavery, abuse and colonialism at the sight of our high speed, high capacity, reliable, cost effective long and short distance railway technology!
DISCLAIMER
Some of the thoughts presented here might be thought-provoking. The author shall not be held responsible for subsequent damage resulting from any thoughts provoked by these thoughts
THANK YOU