LECTURE L24THE FUTURE
“Optimism is a strategy for making a better future. Because unless you believe that the future can be better,
you are unlikely to step up and take responsibility for making it so.” - Noam Chomsky
Predicting the Future
BBC Horizon (1964) with Arthur C. Clarke
THE FUTURE WILL BE FANTASTIC
Image: wikipedia.org
This is how computers worked in 2000
Douglas Adams in 2001
Stuff that works
“The most profound technologies are those that disappear”
— Mark Weiser
WE EMPHASIZETECHNOLOGY
BUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
HOW WILL THIS TECHNOLOGY CHANGE PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOR?
1900
REVOLUTIONINSCIENCE–EINSTEIN,CURIE,FREUD,BOHR,TURING
BROADCASTCULTURE–RADIO,MOVIES,TV,SITCOMS
ANALOG–RECORDS,CASETTES,FILM,BOOKS,CD,DVD
INDUSTRIAL
FACTBASEDEDUCTION
2000 2100
WHATWILLTHE FUTUREBE?
Source: http://insurancethoughtleadership.com/the-five-charts-on-insurance-disruption/
WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF TECHNOLOGY GROWTH
72 YEARS AGO
47 YEARS AGO
39 YEARS AGO
35 YEARS AGO
32 YEARS AGO
Attribution: Chris 73 / Wikimedia Commons
26 YEARS AGO
THE CAR AT 26 YEARS
12 YEARS AGO
9 YEARS AGO
6 YEARS AGO
1900
REVOLUTIONINSCIENCE–EINSTEIN,CURIE,FREUD,BOHR,TURING
BROADCASTCULTURE–RADIO,MOVIES,TV,SITCOMS
ANALOG–RECORDS,CASETTES,FILM,BOOKS,CD,DVD
INDUSTRIAL
FACTBASEDEDUCTION
2000 2100
THETHIRDINDUSTRIALREVOLUTIONENDOFCONTROLEVERYTHINGISDIGITALTHERISEOFSOFTWAREARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEINFINITECOMPUTINGROBOTICS3DPRINTINGSYNTHETICBIOLOGYDIGITALMEDICINENANOMATERIALABUNDANCESUPERMAGNETS
Smartphone
RevolutionsMainframes
1947
Minicomputers
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet
2007
The Smartphone era is ending - what is next?
SOFTWARE AND DATA ARE IN THE CLOUD
INTERNET – 2,5 BILLION PEOPLE + 3 BILLION COMING ONLINE
COMPUTERS,PHONES,DEVICES
ARE JUST GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
Nine Important Technology Trends
The technology part is usually not difficult to understand
The nature of what the technology can do to change people’s behavior is much more difficult for people to understand
3-5 years into the future is no problem - its safe to ignore
The “now” is the challenge
Think About This
Remove the technology and understand the behaviour and what is changing it
SoLoMo1
THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD
4 billion people are buying new smartphones every two years
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
7.5 trillion SMS message sent each year globally
WhatsApp, an app that was built by a team of 30 people and acquired by Facebook for $19 billion, processes 7.2 trillion messages a year
If you want to get customers to use software, you cannot ignore mobile
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD
And we are talking about apps not mobile web - its not a technical questions
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
THE SMARTPHONE JUST ATE THE WORLD
SOCIAL IS CHANGING THE WORLD
Doing business has changed in a fundamental way
Real time has taken over
Now you have to listen 24/7 and act immediately - there is not time to wait for a board meeting
ADAPTIVE TO YOU - LOCAL
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
Analysing you for better service in crucial
The gatekeepers are replaced with algorithms
That can be good or that can be bad
REVOLUTIONS
REVOLUTIONS
Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks2
20TH CENTURY SOCIETY WAS HIERARCHAL
Governments structure
Corporation structure and interaction of companies
Coordination cost is high
21ST CENTURY SOCIETY BECOMES NETWORK
Software connects individuals
Coordination drops towards zero
NETWORK ECONOMY
Twitter takes over real-time news
Youtube takes over videos, lectures, how-tos, entertainments and LOL cats are invented
Anybody can be a producer
21ST CENTURY SOCIETY BECOMES NETWORK
“Sharing economy”
Coordination cost is lowRating systems replace inspections
Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost
Digital Transformation3
USING COMPUTER IN THE INFORMATION AGE
You sit down and use the comptuer
You use the software for your work
The computer is a tool just like any other tool
USING COMPUTER IN THE DIGTIAL AGE
Now the computer tells you what is happening and what you need to do
Real-time Algorithms - from using to being used
The roles have switches - the algorithms are using us
What is happening to most businesses is not only online offering of products and services
It the transformation of old established physical way of doing business into new ways that are optimized around real-time software systems
This is called Digital Transformation
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
Software is becoming the change agent of all business
If the internet has not disrupted a business, it will
Traditional industries like retail, shipping, banking, insurance, law firms, health and the list goes on…
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
https://www.venturescanner.com/
Internet of things4
Internet of Things — $15 trillion by 2025https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/06/what-is-the-internet-of-things-google
Physical components comprise the product’s mechanical and electrical parts
Smart components comprise the sensors, microprocessors, data storage, controls, software, and, typically, an embedded operating system and enhanced user interface
Connectivity components comprise the ports, antennae, and protocols enabling wired or wireless connections with the product
Smart Connected Things
WAREABLE REVOLUTION
Things you carry on you, that measure you with sensors or augments you perception
Smartwatches seems to be the “big thing” of wearables
Wristbands that interpret sign language
T-shirt from DigInfo Two that measures heartbeat
3D Printing5
$2 trillion by 2025
REVOLUTION IN MANUFACTURING
Huge disruption in design, prototyping and manufacturing goods
Mass manufacturing suddeny is not the only way
Cost of production drops dramatically
Anybody can create stuff - personalise stuff
Printing Drugs
Personal drugs
Robotics6
Robot Manufacturing — $10 trillion by 2025
Robotic in the 21st century
Robots that see, hear and sense
Robots that can communicate
Powerful machines with software and internet connectivity
Robots that learn
Drones - robots that fly
The Self-driving Car7
Self-driving Cars an $10 trillion by 2025
There are 3.5 milliontruck drivers in the US
Self driving delivery Robot
The Physical blends with the Digital8
AUGMENTED REALITY
Overlaying digital over the physical
Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping etc will fundamentally change
VIRTUAL REALITY
Completely enter the virtual world
Gaming, learning, travelling, exploring, movies, entertainment, porn, etc will fundamentally change
Virtual Reality for training and better information
Machine Learning9
AI Knowledge Work — $25 trillion by 2025
WILL THE FUTURE BE FANTASTIC?
What about wars, global warming, terrorism, inequality, poverty,..?
Peter Diamandis Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk
NOW ISTHE TIMETO BEOPTIMISTIC ABOUT THEFUTURE
“I like stepping into the future. Therefore, I look for doorknobs.” ― Mark Rosen
New Technology 2016
New Technology 2016