LAND in the Climate Change era
1. What is on the horizon?
2. Why worry?
3. What does CC mean for land?
4. Land Dilemmas
5. Are there opportunities?
6. What to do?
7. What is next?
What is on the horizon–context Rapid urbanization, food insecurity, water stress,
climate change, oil and rising prices of other commodities, etc.
Globalized economies Greater vulnerability of the poor Low productivity Competing markets Technological and communications revolution More demanding political and governance
systems – in need of greater support Land tenure fragility +
Why worry?
Higher risks for the PoorSix Climate ThreatsTop 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island States
All low-lying Island States
Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
MozambiqueMozambiqu
eMoldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Middle IncomeLow Income High Income
Source: World Bank staff.
For some, it will get worseLikely Impact of Sea Level Rise on Low Lying Lands:BANGLADESH
If sea level rises 1.5 m:Total population affected: 17 million (15%)Total land area affected: 22,000 km2 (16%)
Source: UNEP/GRID Geneva; University of Decca; JRO Munich; The World Bank; World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.
TodayTotal population: 112 millionTotal land area: 134,000 km2
LAND in the Climate Change era
Have we done our homework in securing tenure, access to and the best use of land? Pending issues of equity and distribution:
limited access seems to be perpetuated in some regions of the world (are markets functioning up to their potential?)
Pending issues of insecure rights, land grabbing and conflict over resources: weak enforcement and governance structures
Pending issues of low productivity and inefficiencies: agriculture productivity and natural resource allocation
Pending issues of the natural resource base: land degradation (loss of soil fertility, erosion, etc.), deforestation, water-land missing linkages.
In addition……..
Mega-trends Mega-dilemmas Mega-challenges Mega-uncertainties Mega-impacts…and we need MEGA-RESPONSES
What does it mean for Land?
Mega-dilemmas, Mega-
challenges,uncertainties,impacts Mega-opportunities for:
Land Tenure Land as Natural Resource Land as Productive Asset Land Institutions
What does this mean for LAND TENURE
Increased vulnerability and greater exposure to climate risks
Impacts on traditional tenure arrangements
Higher loss of assets (natural, physical, financial)
Higher pressure and insecurity “Global land grab”?
What does this mean for LAND as a Natural Resource
Decreased sustainable use and resource management
Declined adaptive capacity - due to external factors
Physical impacts Scarcity Deforestation? Disrupted systems
What does this mean for LAND INSTITUTIONS
Obsolete systems in need to adapt to new challenges (e.g. the divorce between land rights and forestry rights - who will pay the bill?)
Past gains on land rights limited by non-enforceability and now at higher risk
Recognition yes, but followed by on-the-ground enforcement
The end of the “silo” syndrome: work cross sectoraly
Confronted with some of the mega dilemmas- Greater need to develop new capacities
Greater inclusion- top down approaches are not an option
Partner for development: collective action- the role of civil society.
What does this mean for LAND as a NR and productive asset
1. Demand side2. Supply side
Demand side:
- Productive Demand: new demand for land in developing countries to cultivate raw materials and agrofuel/biofuel
- Demand for Conservation: reserves/ENV services/carbon markets
- Demand for new settlements (public lands): livestock, displacement, population growth, growing demand for food, etc.
- Demand for urbanization: (public or private)
Supply side: Competing needs for energy and food
security Increased competition for cropland,
pastureland and marginal lands - exacerbates the old pressure over land….
Land degradation (soil erosion, etc) Limited conversion and diversification Limited access to water, research and technology
High prices Lack of information
LAND Dilemmas in…..
1. Mitigation2. Adaptation
Land in the CC era: Mitigation
1. Alternative sources of energy and fuel;
Food for cars or food for people? (more land?)
Expansion and displacement - unintended result? (cattle ranching, others?)
Perverse incentives: adoption of biofuels may increase deforestation and demand for new land?
Fragile tenure plus new land disputes
Public lands –their role?
Land in the CC era: Mitigation
2. Greater conservation and better resource allocation
ENV services, re-forestation and afforestation -smallholders
Deforestation avoidance: price increase for agricultural lands (deforestation accounts for 20% of emissions)
More occupation of private and public holdings (old and new frontiers)
Vulnerable tenure arrangements and potential for increased land conflicts.
Land in the CC era: Mitigation3. Indigenous Peoples Livelihoods
Threats to IPs go beyond physical effects (cultural, moral, etc.) Could other mitigation strategies hurt indigenous populations? How to enhance IPs access to resources to cope with changes?
4. Carbon Markets Making it available for the small producer Clear land rights and access to information Support diversification and livelihood strengthening
5. Disaster and Risk Management Risk reduction is key to mitigate and adapt Increased disaster trend Impacts on tenure and on assets
Land and Adaptation
Country-specific It is a short and long term issue - for
now and the future Development is the best adaptation
and resilience strengthener It is required from all (large and
small) in all three worlds (urbanized, ag-based and transitional)
Land in the CC era: Adaptation
Rising food prices (e.g. 181% increase in wheat prices-36 months and 83% overall global)
Rising land prices! Floods and droughts Higher production costs (fertilizer and other
inputs) Slow and inefficient technology adoption How to bear osts of adaptation…..(ODA 4%)
So many threats, so where are the opportunities?
Mitigation-adaptation synergies (low income countries on land, forestry, NRM)
Good adaptation is cost-effective Access to new financing Reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation (REDD) Adapting: a better way to cope with many of the
farming risks The more we mitigate, the less to adapt Second-generation bio-fuels can avoid land use change
and offer greater ENV and social benefits Secure and enforceable land rights Increased productivity Stronger land institutions
What to do about it?
Comprehensive approach
Responsibly and realistically address the trilogy of energy security, climate change and food security. They all have to do with land tenure, land rights and land management.
Land, water and forestry programs. Land tenure programs - beyond titling
and beyond mapping- Research on CC socioeconomic impacts
on land and the natural resource base Set indicators and monitor such impacts
What to do?
Incentives for good land management (such as payments for biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration, community ownership and land tenure security) are necessary, but not sufficient. Should be made accessible to the poor.
Have a new look at community-based forestry.
In less endowed areas….
Invest in R&D for drought tolerance, natural resource management, herding (conditions pertinent for the left behind areas)
Agro-forestry Conservation farming Small scale irrigation and water
harvesting and management Appropriate infrastructure Adapted financial services Risk management instruments
and….bottom line:
Agriculture environmental footprint needs to be substantially reduced
Farming systems to become more CC resilient
Clearer and enforceable land use and property rights (common and individual)
Cleaner and more accessible technologies Greater balance between conservation and
production Forget BAU ~ it is a different era~
But we also need the right policy mix…and the right balance…
Mitigation and Adaptation are crucial and they complement each other’s area of action +mitigation less adaptation needed
Global collective action, global negotiations, and local awareness, local impacts and local actions are needed.
Trade-offs between short-term and long-term decisions/priorities.
What is Next?
Action Make small holders and IPs more resilient and less
vulnerable to CC risks and impacts Adapting land institutions to the size of the
challenge- working across sectors Enhance productivity potential- address food
issues beyond short-term crisis Incentives for investments Land is key for achieving MDG1: making the
linkages and acting on them Global support/local policies/local investments Increase ODA for Agriculture and Forestry