• Why a question mark?• Am I to ask the question?• Will I be asked to answer?• Why in the corner?• Why only one? One question only?• Why black on white?
Its always been an ‘uncertain times’• 9/11• Gulf War• Y2K Bug• Cold war• 1973 Oil shock• Pearl Harbor - WW II• Great depression• WW I
What are ‘uncertain times’?
• Pace of change more rapid.• Its not only economic but even social changes
that have their impact.• Factors impacting outcome – Seemingly unrelated events impact outcomes
more than ever before.– Impact felt faster.
Uncertainty
• Triggers of uncertainty. The black swan syndrome.
• Chaos theory.• Impact of technology.• Globalisation.• Demographic shift.
How to prepare for uncertain times
The traditional approaches are – Anticipate.• Things you can foresee.Adapt.• Things that you cant foresee.In either case, ACT and act fast.
Uncertain times
• The millennials.• Impact of technology.• Information overload.• Globalisation.• Social media.
Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation
Level of uncertainty
Poss
ible
opti
ons/
out
com
es
Level 1
• Relatively simple view of future• One of two obvious options• Leadership – Traditional
SWOTBenchmarkingCompetency-based
Summary of “Industrial” Leadership
• Framed by level 1 uncertainty• These industrial age leadership theories have been:• management-oriented• Focused on the leader• goal-achievement-dominated• male-oriented• utilitarian and materialistic in ethical perspective• Rationalistic
– Philip Rost, Leadership for the 21st Century
Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation
Level of uncertainty
Poss
ible
opti
ons/
out
com
es
Level 1
Level 2
Alternate futures• Mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive• One will occur• Leadership - Qualitative decision
analysis
Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation
Level of uncertainty
Poss
ible
opti
ons/
out
com
es
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Range of futuresNot mutually exclusive• Leadership Strategy -Decision
tree/cost-benefit analysis
Uncertainty–Leadership Correlation
Level of uncertainty
Poss
ible
opti
ons/
out
com
es
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
• True ambiguity- The future is unknown and unknowable
• Leadership strategy – Work backwards
‘White Water’ Conditions
• Conditions are full of surprises• Complex systems tend to produce novel
problems• Conditions feature events that are “messy”
and • Events are often very costly
Working Backwards
• Start with a strategy• Aligning strategy with the organizational
mission and values• Assumptions about the future to support a
defined strategy• ‘Wargame’ likelihood of assumptions
coming out to be true• Hedging bets on the outcome
How to prepare for uncertain times
• Contingency planning. Remember - No plan survives contact.
• Stay connected- communicate.• Informal approach.• Exploit technology.• Manage information.
Nirbhaya rapist releasedDiesel SUVs registration suspended
Paris accord
Green signal to stalled projects
Start ups the way to be
Economy to grow 8 percent
GST bill stalled. Again.
Three more bills need to be passed after GST Bill
Indian growth projections faulty
Public spending at all time low
Social sector ignored
JAM – the focus of NDA government
Sonia Gandhi appears in court
DDCA scandal. Financial irregularities surface
AAP demands Jaitley’s head
Modi tells his cabinet to go after the opposition
Arunacahal Assembly proceedings stalled
Japan to finance Bullet trainIIP figures disappoint
Fed rates cut
Oil prices not likely to fall further
Syria peace process gets UN backing
Executive process the only way out
Indo-Pak talks back on rail
UP elections due in 2017
BJP appoints new Kerala unit head
Nirbhaya rapist releasedDiesel SUVs registration suspended
Paris accord
Green signal to stalled projects
Start ups the way to be
Economy to grow 8 percent
GST bill stalled. Again.
Three more bills need to be passed after GST Bill
Indian growth projections faulty
Public spending at all time low
Social sector ignored
JAM – the focus of NDA government
Sonia Gandhi appears in court
DDCA scandal. Financial irregularities surface
AAP demands Jaitley’s head
Modi tells his cabinet to go after the opposition
Arunacahal Assembly proceedings stalled
Japan to finance Bullet trainIIP figures disappoint
Fed rates cut
Oil prices not likely to fall further
Syria peace process gets UN backing
Executive process the only way out
Indo-Pak talks back on rail
UP elections due in 2017
BJP appoints new Kerala unit head
The simulation exercise
• Ravinder was the only one who made money in the simulation exercise. How ?
• He kept abreast of the news. • Observe how seemingly unrelated events
occur. Join the dots, and you get to know with a reasonable degree of assurance – what to do
What do leaders need to do?• A strong effective and skill sets of others to get more done
inleader in today’s uncertain economy shares the leadership role with others members of the team. Stepping out from the formal leadership role, it is an informal team approach where the lead role shifts by the subject at hand. It allows the organization to tap the excitement a way that drives an even better outcome.
• By building trusted relationships within an organization through accessibility, transparency, communications and actions the shared leadership concept achieves a much higher sense of commitment and meaning to those involved.
Colleen BrownPresident / CEOFisher Communications
What do leaders need to do?There are lots of effective styles. Yet they should
be enabling in order to succeed and generate leverage. Leaders need to demonstrate a steady hand. It’s easy to worry and lose focus in a bad economy.
Steve McConnellManaging PartnerNBBJ
What do leaders need to do?There are lots of effective styles. Yet they should
be enabling in order to succeed and generate leverage. Leaders need to demonstrate a steady hand. It’s easy to worry and lose focus in a bad economy.
Hiring the right people really matters, and really counts. After that, as a leader, you need to stay out of the way. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you, and then just lead through the team. In a sense, the whole organization must lead together.
Steve McConnellManaging PartnerNBBJ
Chris WallacePresident / CEOTexas Chamber of Commerce
Requisites for effective leadership
• Manage information.• Shorten your OODA loop.• Involve the entire team.• Enable the team.• Accessibility.• Communications.• Integrity.
Transformative Leadership
Transformative leadership occurs when one or more people engage with others in such a way that leaders and followers raise one another to higher levels of motivations and morality.
Burns. Transformative Leadership
Leadership in Self-Organizing Systems
• Define the boundaries• Invite diversity• Create transforming
exchanges• Serve the system
• There are no set piece strategies or plans that will win.
• You have to chart your own course. And select what suits you and your organization.