Lithuanian Energy Conference 2010
Energy system in compliance with interestsof national safety and economy.From strategy on paper to actual results
Sture LarssonTechnical Director, deputy CEOSvenska KraftnätThe Swedish Transmission System Operator
Development of energy systems
Principal objectives
>Security of supply
>Sustainability
>Economic viability
Present electricity energy balance inSweden
> Hydro 43 %> Nuclear 49 %> CHP (mainly biomass) 8 %
Total appr. 150 TWh
qHistorically built up in coordinated planningby state, municipal and private interests.
qPresently, expansion is driven by marketprices
- substantial upgrading of the nuclear capacity
State strategy to provideSecurity of Supply
qRegulated infrastructure> System Operator Authority (Svenska Kraftnät)
> Transmission and distribution grids
> Regulatory supervision of national Regulator
> Market mechanisms and rules ( NordPool Spot)
qCompetitive market for generation andsales
Investments to meet the climatic challenges
15.000.000.000.00015.000.000.000.000dollardollar
Investments in Electrical Energy up to 2030
source: World Energy Outlook, 2006(+ exchange rates corrections to 08)
1/3 to 1/2 of the investments needed in transmission
6
Hydro powerSolar power
DC transmissionWind power
Hydro200 GW
Solar 700 GW8000 km sq 90 x 90 km
Wind 300 GW25 000 km sq5000 x 10 km
A 20XX largeA 20XX large--net European visionnet European vision -- based on smart thinkingbased on smart thinking
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
45,192 MW
Cum
ulat
ive N
amep
late
MW
Wind Generation in PJM - Operational and Proposed
www.pjm.com
* In planning queue - August 2009
Installed cap.167 000 MW
qNational planning target setto facilitate:
30 TWh / 12 000 MWqSummary of all identified
projects:> 36 000 MW / 90 TWh
qPresently installed capacity:Hydro 16 000 MWNuclear 9 000 MW
Wind Power Development Scenarios in Sweden
Economic incentivesSwedish system of Green Certificates
> Mandatory requirement on electricity consumption
> Each MWh in consumption must correspond to a specifiedvolume of certificates
> Requirements are defined as annual quotas (% of cons.)
> Certificates are issued for renewable production
> The price of certificates are determined on a market basis
> Present target to reach 25 TWh renewables by year 2020
> Long term stability, the system is scheduled at least until 2035
> Agreement to extend the system to include Norway
Skallhalsen, 65 MW
Domen, 100 MW
Laukvikdalsfjellet 70 MWGartefjell 40 MWHavøygavlen 40 MW
Hammerfest 110 MW
Raufjell 240 MW
725
155
835
25752615
2775
2900
Straumøya 26 MW
3930
Ytre Vikna 250 MW
Oksbåsheia 150 MW
Frøya 200 MW
Hitra 55 MWSmøla 150 MW
3955
4605
4855
6095
6815Harbaksfjellet 90 MW
Bessakerfjellet 50 MW
4905
5655
7285
Bugøynes 90 MW
Båtsfjord 120 MW
Sleneset 225 MW
Seglkollfjellet 350 MW
Rakkocearro 350 MWVannøya 135 MW
Haramsfjellet 66 MW895
Haugshornet 75 MW
7220
Snefjord 160 MW
3580
Andøya 260 MW
Fræna 65 MW
Rieppi 63 MW
1185
Flatneset 35 MW
Kvitfjell 200 MW
Kvenndalsfjellet 120 MW
Laksefjorden 100 MW
Skjøtningberg 400 MW
Gimsøy 50 MW
Digermulen 100 MW3100
Roan 180 MW
Hundhammerfjellet 48 MW
Sørøya 15 MW
Sjonfjellet 428 MW
Nordkyn 750 MW Eliastoppen 40 MW
Nygårdsfj. 40 MW
Fosen offsh.: 600 MW
Div. Vindparker Fosen statkraft 720 MW
Nord-Norge:Finnmark: 2900 MWTroms : 680 MWNordland: 1025 MWMidt-NorgeTrøndelag: 2210 MW Møre &Romsdal: 2215 MW
Total around 9000 MW
Identified projects in northern Norway
State strategy to provideSecurity of Supply
qRegulated infrastructure
qCompetitive market for generationand sales
qMarket for Green Certificates asinstrument to reach sustainabilitytargets
Wind development in a broader perspective
Wind expansion
Extensive wind development scenarios
q Wind capacity may reach levelsthat are highly significant in relation topresently installed generation capacity
q Implies a major transformationof the Nordic Power System andits physical characteristics
To develop the Nordic Power system tosupport the climate and energy policies laidout to reach the EU Commissionsustainability targets
20/20/20 at year 2020
…. and beyond that !
Joint objective of the Nordic TSO:s
Snitt 27000 MW
Snitt 13000 MW
Snitt 44500 MW
Impact on central System Operator objectives
TransmissionBalance regulationLoad-frequency control
Wind power induced balancing needs
Example from Germany Forecasting difficulties
Balancing need 10 000 MW
Balance regulation in hydro
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Tor Fre Lör Sön Mån Tis Ons
MWh/h
+ Import / - ExportVattenkraftVindkraftVärmekraftKärnkraftElavändning
Extensively used todayEfficient, emission-free
Role of the Nordic Hydro Power
> Real time balance regulationof wind variations
> Back up for low wind generation
> Central European requests forthe regulation capacity
Balance Regulation in Hydro Power
> The regulation capacity of the Nordichydro power is extensive but not infinite
> The capacity is expected tobe used to its full ability
> In conflict with local environmentalconcerns and legally binding constraints
21
Balance regulationin generation
……and on the
demand side
Källa: Svensk Energi
Smart Grids - Demand flexibility
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Vision
Based on vision from AC Propulsion
Market developments
> Expanded Balancing market
> Volatile pricing of balancing services
> Development of the Nordic decentralisedbalancing concept interacting with theTSO:s central role
> Spot market operating closer to real time
State strategy to provideSecurity of Supply
qRegulated infrastructure> System Operator Authority (Svenska Kraftnät)
> Transmission and distribution grids
> Regulatory supervision of national Regulator
> Development of Market mechanisms and rules ( NordPool Spot)
> Development of the TSO driven Balancing market
qCompetitive market for generation, salesand balance regulation resources
qMarket for Green Certificates asinstrument to reach sustainability targets
Enhanced transmission capacity needs
> Transport of wind generation
> Transport of back-up generation
> Facilitate use of efficient sources ofbalancing capacity
> Level out generation over largeareas
Extensive developmentof renewable generationcalls for substantialreinforcements intransmissiongrids andinterconnections
Tedious licensing is aserious obstacle
3rd AC interconnector toFinland
North-south inSweden and Norway
South-West LinkHVDC VSC
NordBaltHVDC VSC
Grid capacitymajor reinforcements
Nuclearupgradings
Swedish National Grid Investments
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
MSEK
ENTSO-E 10 Year Network Development Plan, TYNDP
Evolving from a reliable transmission network designed foroptimization of generation resources …
…towards a transmission network implementing EU energy &climate policies and maximising welfare.
October 12, 2010 30
Electricity Directive 96/92/EC (1999)3rd Legislative Package for the Internal
Market in electricity (2009)
October 12, 2010 31
ENTSO-E 10 Year NetworkDevelopment Plan, TYNDP
2010-2014
2015+
Pilot TYNDP delivers
October 12, 2010 32
~14% of existing transmission line km
44%mid term
56%long term
78%
22%
AC > 300 kV29600 km 83%
17%
Total projects42100 km
DC 9600 km
AC < 300 kV2900 km
upgrade
new
Pilot TYNDP delivers
October 12, 2010 33
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
bn€
1
NI
GBNL
DE
FR
DK
NO
BE
RoI
LU
NORTH SEA
NI
GBNL
DE
FR
DK
NO
BE
RoI
LU
NORTH SEA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
bn€ DE
NO
EE
LVLT
PL
DK
SE
FI
DE
NO
EE
LVLT
PL
DK
SE
FI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
bn€
BALTIC SEA
PLDE
AT
CZ
ROHUSK
CONTINENTALCENTRAL EAST
SIHR
PLDE
AT
CZ
ROHUSK
CONTINENTALCENTRAL EAST
SIHR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
bn€
FR
ESPT
CONTINENTALSOUTH WEST
FR
ESPT
CONTINENTALSOUTH WEST
DE
FR
IT
CH AT
CONTINENTALCENTRAL SOUTH
SI
DE
FR
IT
CH AT
CONTINENTALCENTRAL SOUTH
SI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16bn
€ RS
HU
IT
SI ROBAHR
BG
GR
MK
CYCONTINENTALSOUTH EAST
MERS
HU
IT
SI ROBAHR
BG
GR
MK
CYCONTINENTALSOUTH EAST
ME
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
bn€
October 12, 2010 34
RG Baltic Sea> Development of a coordinated extension plan of
interconnections between the Baltic States &Poland and Baltic States & Nordic area
> Long term drivers :ü RES integrationü Continental interconnections and North-
South reinforcements in Nordic countries
Pilot TYNDP delivers an overview of regional initiatives
State strategy to provideSecurity of Supply
qRegulated infrastructure> System Operator Authority (Svenska Kraftnät)
> Transmission and distribution grids
> Regulatory supervision of national Regulator
> Development of Market mechanisms and rules ( NordPool Spot)
> Development of the TSO driven Balancing market
> International coordination of expanded interconnections
qCompetitive market for generation, salesand balance regulation resources
qMarket for Green Certificates asinstrument to reach sustainability targets
InterconnectionsNordBalt
Objectives:EnhancedSecurity ofSupply
Integration ofthe Nordicand Balticelectricitymarkets
Integrated Nordic – Baltic market
> The most efficient way to share the benefit of theinterconnector among the Baltic states
> Open access to the interconnector as aninfrastructure asset
> Power exchange technology from NordPool Spot
An integrated market is a prerequisite for theSwedish commitment to build the interconnector
NordBalt connections to grid in Sweden andLithuania
39
The NordBalt Interconnector
European CommissionFinancial support from the EEPR funds
The Interconnector between Lithuania and Sweden 131 M€
Reinforcements in the Latvian Grid 44 M€
Total 175 M€
Necessary grid reinforcements in Lithuania and Swedenare financed separately on each side
41
ØCapacity 700 MW
ØVoltage 300 kV
ØLength ~450 km
ØTechnology VSC
Optofiber Cable 24pairs
The NordBalt Interconnector
42
J F MA MJ J A S OND2009
J F MA MJ J A S ON D2013
J F MA MJ J A S OND2012
J F MA MJ J A S OND2010
J F MA MJ J A S ON D2011
J F MAMJ J A S OND2014
J F MA MJ J A S ON D2015
J F MA MJ J A S OND2016
Design and manufacturing (sub-sea and land cable)
HVDCsub-sea cable
HVDC converterstation
NybroAC-station
Permits
HVDCland cable Sweden
Design and manufacturing (sub-sea and land cable)
InstallationDesign and manufacturing
Design, manufac. and install.
Installation
Install. Install.
Sweden
Commissioning
Commissioning
Commissioning
Commissioning
Singing of contractfor manufacturing
Singing of contract
Singing of contract
Singing of contract
Lithuania
KlaipėdaAC-station
Manufacturing and installationCommissioningSinging of contract
Singing of contractfor installation
NordBalt Interconnector, Time schedule
End of2015
Cable route in the Baltic sea
43
Potential development of wind power at SödraMidsjöbankarna with connection to NordBalt
44
Up to 2000 MW
Feasible by the chosen VSC technology
State strategy to provide Security of Supply,Sustainability and Economic viability
qRegulated infrastructure> System Operator Authority (Svenska Kraftnät)
> Transmission and distribution grids
> Regulatory supervision of national Regulator
> Development of Market mechanisms and rules ( NordPool Spot)
> Development of the TSO driven Balancing market
> International coordination of expanded interconnections
qCompetitive market for generation, salesand balance regulation resources
qInternational integration of MarketsqMarket for Green Certificates as
instrument to reach sustainability targets
Thanks for your attention !