Market and Consumer Trends
Sharon Orrell8th March 2012
Holiday trip volumes are below 2009 peak, but remain well above pre-recession levels for the third successive year
Apr-0
6
Jun-
06
Aug-0
6
Oct-0
6
Dec-0
6
Feb-0
7
Apr-0
7
Jun-
07
Aug-0
7
Oct-0
7
Dec-0
7
Feb-0
8
Apr-0
8
Jun-
08
Aug-0
8
Oct-0
8
Dec-0
8
Feb-0
9
Apr-0
9
Jun-
09
Aug-0
9
Oct-0
9
Dec-0
9
Feb-1
0
Apr-1
0
Jun-
10
Aug-1
0
Oct-1
0
Dec-1
0
Feb-1
1
Apr-1
1
Jun-
11
Aug-1
1
Oct-1
1
Dec-1
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
Domestic Overnight Trips in England – Rolling 12 Month Trend
Trips(m) 2011
change
+6%Holiday
VFR
Business
+10%
+15%
Source: GB Tourism Survey
Trends vary by region….
London
Yorkshire
South West
South East
Average
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
East of England
North East
-5
-4
1
2
5
5
9
13
19
26
English Holiday Trips – Year on Year % Change Jan – Nov 2011 vs 2010
Source: GB Tourism Survey
Trends also vary by demographics and trip characteristics…
B&B accommodation
DE
Young Famillies
Hotels / GH
Older Families
AB
AVERAGE
Empty Nester
C2
Young Independents
C1
Older Independents
Self-catering
Static Caravans
-9
2
2
3
4
5
5
5
6
7
7
8
17
20
English Holiday Trips – Year on Year % Change Jan – Sept 2011 vs 2010
Source: GB Tourism Survey
…and online booking continues to become ever more important
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10.4 12.2 12.6 16.7 17.1
14.4 13.4 12.113.8 11.5
15.9 16 15.3
16.915.4
Domestic Holiday Trips (m)
Booked Online Booked Offline No Booking / Don't Know
Jan – Nov 2011Holiday trips booked online
+ 19%
Source: GB Tourism Survey
Source: GB Tourism Survey
Attractions performance was positive through most of 2011
Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11 Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
-6
4
14
24
34
44
-5
15
5 4
-3-1
0
-1
19
12
-2
10
1 13
0
47
9
28
% Year on Year Change in Attractions Visitor Numbers
2009 20102011
Source: England Attractions Monitor
Quarter 1+7%
Quarter 2+4%
Quarter 3+2%
Source: VE Quarterly Attractions Monitor
Quarter 4+12%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
24.2 24.7
27.830
32.7 32.8 31.929.9 29.8 30.6
7.7 89.3 9.7 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.4 11.7 11.9
UK Inbound Visits (Millions)
All Visits Holiday Visits
Some recovery in inbound trip volumes in 2011, with holiday travel at an all-time high
Source: International Passenger Survey
In the accommodation sector, confidence levels vary by type of business
Guesthouse / B&B
Self-catering
Hotel
Caravan & Camping
All Accommodation
14
18
19
21
18
59
58
66
69
63
Optimism about Spring and Easter
Very confident Quite confident
Source: VisitEngland Business Confidence Monitor – January 2012
Among attractions, larger operators are more optimistic than others
20,000 or less
20,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 200,000
Over 200,000
All Attractions
20
31
29
34
42
28
18
30
12
14
15
19
Optimism about Jan – March 2012 – by size of attraction
More optimistc Less optimistic
Source: VisitEngland Attractions Monitor
The Consumer
Widespread concern about the economic environment, though levels seem to have peaked
Oct/Nov 08
Feb/Mar 09
Jun-09 Oct/Nov 09
Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12
70
75
63
58
61 64
74 72
70
53
5960
65 66
65
5254
4749
54
57
6061
59
% strongly / slightly agree
Very concerned about it
Concerned about job security
Worried about mak-ing ends meet
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
Three quarters have changed spending patterns as a result of the downturn – and 1 in 4 are “seriously affected.”
Oct/Nov 08
Feb/Mar 09
Jun-09 Oct/Nov 09
Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Feb-12
15 17 18 17 19 20 24 24 25
4752 50 52 53 51
54 52 51
2822 19 14
16 2016 17 15
10 9 13 17 12 9 6 6 9
Impact of Economic Downturn
Hasn't affected, not worrying
Hasn't affected but concerned
Affected a little
Seriously affected
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research
What do we know about “staycationers”?
15% “Switchers”
• Replaced a foreign holiday with one at home
• High proportion of families• More worried about job
security and credit crunch• Main motivations were
financial situation and exchange rate
• In total, 22% of the population
9% “Extras”
• Took more domestic breaks – but not as substitute for others – also more foreign hols
• Younger profile• Less affected by credit crunch
than switchers (but have become more cost conscious over time)
• Main motivations were exploring / going somewhere new
“I went on so many holidays last year... here as well as abroad..it was great”
“I had to go on holiday in this country because money was well short”
And what was their experience?
“Switchers”
• In the main, positive….
“Extras”
It was far better than expected...we went to Cornwall where I used to go when I was a
kid ..but it’s better than I remember and little ones wanted to be shown what we used to
do...they really loved it
We enjoyed it as a family much more than we thought we would..we did things together...went on trips to light railways, country houses, the grounds
It was OK…But to be honest if I had more money I would go abroad this year...I don’t so it will have to be England...I don’t know it’s not quite like going away
I really enjoyed the trip last year in England...really opened eyes to possibilities you don’t really think of...great country really and seen
so little of it
We had a wedding in Cumbria...so we decided to extend it to 3 days in the Lakes...wow!
This year has got me thinking….
Expectation of more domestic trips – even in longer term
Extras
Switchers
All
76
66
50
24
34
50
Whether will take more UK holidays in longer term, beyond 2012
Yes No
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research Sept 2011
Finances play a role in this , but NOT the only reason
Exchange rate
To support UK tourism
Easier to holiday in UK /hassle
To return to a place I'd liked
Easy at last minute
To explore the UK
To go somewhere new in UK
Cost/economy
18
18
29
31
31
39
40
47
Reasons for wanting to take more trips at home in future
Source: VisitEngland Staycation Research 2011
Market and Consumer Trends
Sharon Orrell8th March 2012