MARKET PULSEMay 2015
1
Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.
2
LASTTRANSACTION
3
MedianSale Price Down 3.3% MTM, Down 0.9%YTY
Q: What was the sale price of your last closed transaction?
$439,000$450,000
$435,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
2014
2015
YTD
Median
4
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Over Below At
5
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Decreased
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
6.5%
10%
8.0% 8.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
2014
YTD
2015
Average
6
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Discount on Asking Price Declines
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
20142015YTD
Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0 -8.0 -10%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
7
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
8
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Number of Offers Received Declines
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.7
3.6
2.8
Average
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?
9
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Listing Price Reductions Down
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
20%
25% 26%28%
33%
29%31% 31% 31%
23%
28%25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
% of Previous Renters Declining
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
11
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
12
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%Ja
n-14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
% First-time Buyers Long Run Average
13
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences
Q: What was the intended use of the property?
82%73% 79%
10%19% 13%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other
14
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
International Buyers Fluctuate
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
% International Buyers Long Run Average
15
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
MARKET CONDITIONS
16
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Increased
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Last MonthDown Flat Up
17
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsIncrease
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Last Month
Down Flat Up
18
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Open HouseTraffic Up from LastYear
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Last Month Down Flat Up
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
LastYear
19
Auctions Steady
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
Last Month Down Flat Up
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
LastYear
20
All Cash Purchases Down
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
Last Month Down Flat Up
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
LastYear
21
Majority of REALTORS Expect Similar/BetterMarketConditionsOver the NextYear
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr
-15
May
-15
Worsen Same Improve
22
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions toWorsen
There are no employment opportunities in this area, there are not many investorseither.
There are many REALTORS without a real estate license and their brokers allowit.
Low inventory of houses.
Prices are too high and many are being priced out.
Fewer sellers entering the market; higher prices will limit opportunities for buyers.
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
23
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
What are REALTORS Saying?Inventory is still limited and buyers are hesitant to pay asking price.
Millennials dont seem to be moving to buy.
Appraisal issues continue to hurt transactions. Issues with solar panel appraisals.
Prices seem to be rising too quickly. I hope we are not in another bubble.
The market is becoming overheated in the under $600k price range.
Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?
24
Top 10 Counties
Q: In which county do you live?
April 2015 May 2015
1 Los Angeles Los Angeles
2 San Diego San Diego
3 Riverside Alameda
4 Orange Riverside
5 San Bernardino Santa Clara
6 Sacramento Sacramento
7 San Mateo Orange
8 Santa Clara Fresno
9 Alameda Contra Costa
10 San Francisco San Mateo
25
SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS