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Chapter 3
Business
Cycle
Measurement
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Chapter 3 Topics
• Regularities in GP !lu"tuations.
• Co#ove#ent
• $ehavior o! %ey &a"roe"ono#i" 'aria(les
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Regularities in GDP
Fluctuations
• $usiness Cy"les are fluctuations about trend in
real GDP.
• )he turning points in the deviations o! real GP!ro# trend are peaks and troughs.
• Persistent positive deviations !ro# trend are
booms and persistent negative deviations !ro#trend are recessions.
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Figure 3.1 Idealized Business
Cyles
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Deviations From Trend in
Real GDP are rregular
• )he !lu"tuations in GP a(out trend are ,uite
"hoppy.
• )here is no regularity in the a#plitude o!!lu"tuations in real GP a(out trend.
• )here is no regularity in the !re,uen"y o!
!lu"tuations in real GP a(out trend.
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Figure 3.! Perentage !eviations "ro#
$rend in %eal &!P "ro# '()*+200,
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Figure 3.3 $i#e eries Plots
o" x and y
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Figure 3." Correlations
Beteen /ariales y and x
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Correlation #ith Real GDP
• ! the deviations !ro# trend in a #a"roe"ono#i"
varia(le are positively 1negatively "orrelated
ith the deviations !ro# trend in real GP4 thenthat varia(le is procyclical 1countercyclical .
• ! a #a"roe"ono#i" varia(le is neither
pro"y"li"al nor "ounter"y"li"al4 it is acyclical.
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Figure 3.$ I#ports and &!P
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Figure 3.% atter Plot o"
I#ports and &!P
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Figure 3.& 1eading and
1agging /ariales
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Figure 3.' Perentage !eviations "ro# $rend in
%eal &!P olored line and the Inde4 o" 1eading
5ono#i Indiators la6 line "or '(7(+200,
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Behavior o( )ey
Macroeconomic *aria+les
• Co#ponents o! GP6 "onsu#ption and
invest#ent.
• 7o#inal varia(les6 pri"e level and #oneysupply.
• a(or #ar9et varia(les6 e#ploy#ent4 real age4
average la(or produ"tivity.
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Figure 3., Perentage !eviations "ro#
$rend in %eal Consu#ption la6 line and
%eal &!P olored line '()*+200,
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Figure 3.1- Perentage !eviations "ro#
$rend in %eal Invest#ent la6 line and
%eal &!P olored line
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Figure 3.11 atter Plot "or the Perentage
!eviations "ro# $rend in the Prie 1evel the
I#pliit &!P Prie !e"lator and %eal &!P
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Figure 3.1! Prie 1evel and
&!P
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Figure 3.13 Perentage !eviations "ro# $rend
in the oney upply la6 line and %eal &!P
olored line "or the Period '(7(+200,.
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Figure 3.1" Perentage !eviations "ro#
$rend in 5#ploy#ent la6 line and
%eal &!P olored line
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Figure 3.1$ Perentage !eviations "ro# $rend
in Average 1aor Produtivity la6 line and
%eal &!P olored line "or '()8+200,
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Figure 3.1% easonally Ad9usted la6
and :nad9usted olored oney upply
"or the ;ears 200'+200,
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Ta+le 3.1 Correlation Coe""iients and
/ariaility o" Perentage !eviations "ro#
$rend
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Ta+le 3.! u##ary o"
Business Cyle <ats
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Figure 3.1& Perentage !eviations "ro#
$rend in %eal &!P and &overn#ent
54penditures
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Figure 3.1' atter Plot o" &overn#ent
54penditures Against %eal &!P
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Figure 3.1, Perentage !eviations
"ro# $rend in %eal &!P and 54ports
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Figure 3.!- atter Plot o"
54ports vs. &!P