Meptec Thermal Symposium - February 2005The Heat is On: Thermal Packagingand Opportunities
Jim WalkerVP Research
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Gartner Dataquest
1
Presentation Outline
Semiconductor ForecastSemiconductor Market ApplicationsApplication Drivers for Thermal Packaging Thermal Packaging MarketMarket OpportunitiesFuture Trends and Directions
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Forecast TrendsRevenue Growth (%) 2004 2005
-6Mos -3Mos NOW -6Mos -3Mos NOW
World Real GDP 4.3 4.1 +4.2 3.5 3.4 +3.3U.S. Real GDP 4.9 4.2 +4.4 3.8 3.4 +3.2E Equipment* 9.0 10.7 +10.8 8.0 7.3 +7.4
Semiconductor 24.8 27.4 +25.6 13.8 9.3 +5.2
Capital Spending 50.9 53.9 +55.6 13.4 0.4 -12.8Equip. Spending 63.5 66.4 +61.3 15.0 0.6 -15.3WFE Equipment 63.4 72.2 +65.8 13.8 0.9 -17.3P&A Equipment 63.2 48.8 +46.6 2.4 -14.0 -22.3AT Equipment 62.4 51.7 +51.7 34.2 3.3 +3.3
*Production revenue
s
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INDICATOR: Utilization Index 20
04
2005
INDICATOR JUDGEMENT
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
Utilization Leading EdgeWFE PAE
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
Utilization
Foundry
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
Utilization Leading Edge
Leading Edge
SATS
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
Utilization Leading Edge
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Semiconductors Market Size:A Pause in 2005 and 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%RevenueAGR
Semiconductor Market Revenue ($B) and Growth Forecast
Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates (November 2004)
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Top Semiconductor Applications:Ranked by 2004 Total Available Market
2004 2008 CAGR ‘04 Share ‘08 ShareDesktop PC 30.5 34.7 3.3% 13.7% 11.7%Digital Cellular, 2.5G 17.3 22.0 6.3% 7.8% 7.4%Mobile PC 12.4 20.0 12.7% 5.6% 6.7%Digital Cellular, 3G 12.2 22.9 17.1% 5.5% 7.7%Video Game Devices 5.4 7.3 8.0% 2.4% 2.5%Server, Entry-Level 5.3 6.0 3.1% 2.4% 2.0%Manufacturing Systems 4.9 5.8 4.4% 2.2% 1.9%Flash Cards 4.4 7.3 13.7% 2.0% 2.5%Military/Civil Aerospace 4.4 5.2 4.3% 2.0% 1.7%Optical Disk Drive 4.3 5.6 6.5% 2.0% 1.9%
Others 121.9 160.6 7.1% 54.7% 54.0%
Total 222.9 297.4 7.5% 100.0% 100.0%
Note: All revenue data are in Billions of Dollar
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Top Semiconductor Applications:Ranked by 2004 to 2008 CAGR
2004 2008 CAGR ‘04 Share ‘08 ShareTV, Digital CRT 1.0 4.3 46.2% 0.4% 1.5%TV, LCD 0.7 2.9 41.9% 0.3% 1.0%TV, Plasma 0.3 0.9 35.3% 0.1% 0.3%TV, Rear Projection 1.1 3.3 31.2% 0.5% 1.1%USB Flash Drives 1.2 2.7 21.1% 0.6% 0.9%Storage Network Infrastructure 0.6 1.2 21.0% 0.3% 0.4%Monitor, Flat Panel 2.7 5.3 18.5% 1.2% 1.8%LAN Wireless 1.5 3.0 17.9% 0.7% 1.0%Public Infrastructure - Access 1.3 2.5 17.3% 0.6% 0.8%Digital Cellular, 3G 12.2 22.9 17.1% 5.5% 7.7%
Others 200.3 248.5 5.5% 89.9% 83.5%
Total 222.9 297.4 7.5% 100.0% 100.0%
Note: All revenue data are in Billions of Dollar
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The Industry Will Be Shaped by Five Drivers
Increasing Device Integration
Scale of Manufacturing
High R&D CostsMargin Pressures
Semiconductor Industry Future
Industry Consolidation
Consumer Markets
MPUDRAMASICs with SOCOther MemoryFoundryASICs without SOCDigital Mixed SignalMCUAnalog Mixed SignalSmart PowerAnalog/LinearDiscrete/Power
Device Feature Size Reduction
Production Sweet Spot:
0.180.250.350.500.71.01.52.0 0.13
Feature Size (Micron)
19971990 2004
0.09
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System on Chip
Increasing Device Integration
Improvements in speed, power, functionality and costBut design costs rise:– Increasing system content – Need for ESL design tools– Drives IP market
And mask costs rise:Therefore …– Need more flexibility; amortize costs– Fewer designs/fewer chip types– Fewer vendors
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Packaging Goals
Minimal Use of Space Efficient Electrical Integration of ComponentsMaximize ThermalDissipation
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Need for Speed: Increased Visibility of Thermal Management Issues
Heat in a circuit is inversely proportional to efficiency of circuitInput power not used is lost via heatReliability of circuit is affected by its operating temperature
– Control circuit operating temperature by effective removal of heat.
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Thermal Management
Thermal management is a significant current and future problem due to…– Increasing CPU Power– Increase in “Hot Spot” densities– Shrinking System sizes– Increased Internal and Overall System integration
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Thermal vs. Circuit Technology Trends
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Bipolar vs. CMOS Technology Trends
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Microprocessor Cooling Cost
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Intel Microprocessor Power Trend
Ref: Intel
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Microprocessor Thermal Radiator
REF: Nippon Denso
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60%
1993 2013
Consumer percent of semiconductor market
Consumer/Wireless Markets Will Drive Semiconductor Technology
Previously driven by military and corporate requirements"Tricky" markets for vendors– Unpredictable; fashion-driven– Price-sensitive; continued margin
squeeze
Opportunity to brand chip and architecture High-volume but fragmented applications; trend to low individual value
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Internet Traffic - Network Power Issues
Building power provisioning and heat removal of several hundreds of kW (node level) Cost optimization of energy, air-conditioning, and real estate (node level) Temperature control for reliable operation to prevent failure (shelf level) Heat removal by direct liquid or immersion cooling (shelf and board level) Need for cost effective unconventional cooling solutions (shelf level) Low effective thermal resistance and low pressure, high-conductivity interfaces (board level)
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Internet Traffic - Network Power Issues (cont.)
Thermal integration with electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) for high speed, low voltage circuits (board level) Efficient heat spreading, thermal interface materials (board level) Heat removal from high flux chips (device level) Higher thermal conductive packaging materials, such as spreaders, adhesives, and thermal pastes (device and board level) Precise temperature control and low operating temperature (device level) Need for higher reliability and efficiency of thermo-electric cooling (device level).
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Internet Growth - Network Power Distribution
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Rack / Equipment Room Heat Load Forecast
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Thermal Market Opportunities
Design Software (die, package, board)Power (speed, voltage/current)Materials (substrate, wire, encapsulant)Manufacturing and Test ServicesProcess Equipment and Test
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Design Opportunities
Thermal ModelingDie (power, speed, voltage/current)Package & SubstrateBoard System
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Thermal Management Software Companies
Aavid TechnologiesAnsoftFlomerics (Flotherm)Fluent (Icepak)Harvard Thermal MentorSynopsysTransoftAnsys, Abaqus, Patran
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Materials Opportunities
Encapsulant (mold compound, glob/blob)– $1.5B in 2004
Interconnect (wire/solder/tape) – $1.6 B in 2004
Substrate (ceramic, plastic, metal or composite) Heat sink/spreaderInterfaces ( adhesives, greases, underfill)Coolants (refrigerants, fans)
Ref: semi.org
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Substrates
Total Packaging Substrate Market - $7.5 Billion in 2004
CeramicPlasticMetalCompositeDiamond
Ref: semi.org
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PBGA Performance Improvement27x27mm Body, 10.2mm Die
24.421.9
19.217.6 16.4 15.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
RJA
2562L
2722L
2566L
2726L
2566L
1 oz Cu
2726L
1 oz Cu
REF: STATS-ChipPac
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Suppliers –Thermal Management Materials
Aavid TechnologiesThermacoreAlpha TechnologiesAlcoaLytronKyocera
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Heat Sinks
Fins– Square– Rectangular– Elliptical– Twisted – Pins
– Attachment Methods• Mechanical• Paste Adhesives• Tape
Nanocoolers
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Heat Sink Thermal Resistance
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30Height (mm)
Res
ista
nce
(o C/W
at 2
00 lf
m)
38-50mm base Aavid28mm base Aavid35mm base AavidATS 45mm base28mm base Wakefield30mm base Aavid33d for 35mmBGA CC50d for 40mmBGA CC50d for 31mmBGA CC50d for 42mmBGA CC
Thin FinHigh Performance
Extruded/Pin-Fin/Circular
Average Performance
REF: STATS-ChipPac
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Heat Sink Cost vs. Performance
Ref: Intel
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Industry Power Dissipation Forecast
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Chip Heat Flux Forecast
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Summary of Opportunities
Materials– Optimized fluids for liquid cooling– Materials for package construction / thermal spreading with improved
characteristicsDevices– High static pressure, low acoustic noise blowers– Micro heat pipe structures– Two-phase cooling approaches at small scale– MEMS components for liquid / two phase cooling
Design– Footprint liquid cooling systems– Package-scale jet impingement / spray cooling– Advanced, integrated thermal design tools– Frame and rack coolers– Equipment room thermal design– Distributed sensing systems
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As We Race Onward in the “Need for Speed” … Will Cost Be The Killer?
Supplier
Customer