THE FUTURE OF NEW ZEALAND'S
TRANSPORT SYSTEM:
FINDINGS FROM NZ DELPHI SURVEY
Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson Energy Cultures II Project
Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE) [email protected]
• Why is it important to think about New Zealand’s future transport system?
• The Delphi Technique • The Delphi Panel • Results
– Trends – Innovations – Step changes – Time frames – Characteristics of a sustainable transport
system • Concluding remarks
STRUCTURE
Reliance on imported fuel:
• Imported crude oil accounts for 99.85% of New Zealand’s transport fuel requirements (MBIE, 2012)
Used primarily by light passenger vehicles:
• 94% of transport petrol is used for light passenger vehicles, 6% commercial and other uses.
High car ownership rate:
• Second highest private car ownership rate in the OECD; 604 cars per thousand people in 2013
Relatively old vehicle fleet:
• Relatively old vehicle fleet – average of 13.2 years in 2012, compared to 11.4 years in the USA and 10.0 years for Australia
Transport emissions:
• New Zealand’s transport sector emissions per capita are approximately 3 t CO2-e and put New Zealand in the middle of the Annex 1 countries; higher than the EU (2t CO2-e/person) and below Australia (nearly 4t CO2-e/person)
CONTEXT
Source: MBIE, 2014
THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE…
… a structured process enabling the collection and synthesis of knowledge from a group of experts
… generates levels of agreement through iterative investigations of opinions
Benefits:
Reduces power dynamics
Overcomes geographical constraints of bringing together geographically scattered experts
Valuable for issues with high uncertainty or disagreement
Round One (n=75)
•Qualitative survey •Inviting Panel to list influential trends, innovations & step changes (free text)
Round Two (n=67)
•Quantifying the likelihood of the trends, innovations & step changes occurring, and their potential to transform the transport system •Time frames in which the stated changes would be likely to occur
Round Three (n=55)
•Quantifying levels of agreement/ disagreement arising from Rounds 1 & 2.
•Identifying areas of high priority for interventions
•Levels of agreement with International Delphi panel on features of a sustainable transport system for NZ
Round Four (n=44)
•Inviting Panel to describe the types of interventions required to support priorities (free text)
NZ DELPHI 2014
86 PANELLISTS ACROSS 4 ROUNDS
DELPHI PARTICIPANT CHARACTERISTICS
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Consultant
Other
Academia
Independent researcher
Industry
Non-governmental organisation
Government (central + local)
Number of expert participants
Fields of expertise: Areas of highest reported expertise: ‘active transport’, ‘policy and planning’, ‘personal transport’ and ‘transport-related infrastructure’.
Locally specified areas of expertise: Auckland = 19 Wellington = 14 Dunedin = 6 Bay of Plenty/ Waikato = 3
DEFINITIONS
TRENDS: ‘things that are already changing’ INNOVATIONS: ‘novel technological, behavioural and policy developments’ STEP CHANGES: ‘possible rapid or sudden shifts, shocks, or changes in context’ BUSINESS-AS-USUAL (BAU): ‘the continuation of transport systems and practices that rely on finite resources and support automobile dependence’.
TRENDS
TRENDS (I)
1 2 3 4 5
Reducing cost of air transport relative to road…
Urban form that supports active transport and…
Rising concern about health implications of…
Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car…
Increasing political concern about climate change
Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs)
Increasing investment in active transport…
Consolidation of ports and freight hubs
Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling)
Uptake of public transport
Increasing investment in public transport…
Increasing public concern about climate change
Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth
Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
Road congestion
Decreasing car ownership amongst youth
Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,…
Increasing percent of population in urban areas
Aging population
Rising fuel prices
Lkelihood of TREND becoming widespread in 10 years (1= low, 5 = high)
Top 5 trends most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Rising fuel prices 2. Aging population 3. Increasing urbanisation 4. Use of travel substitution 5. Decreasing car
ownership for youth
TRENDS (II)
1 2 3 4 5
Reducing cost of air transport relative to road transport
Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
Rising concern about health implications of transport…
Consolidation of ports and freight hubs
Road congestion
Decreasing drivers licensing amongst youth
Aging population
Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs)
Uptake of shared personal transport (e.g. car sharing,…
Use of travel substitution technologies (Internet,…
Decreasing car ownership amongst youth
Uptake of active transport (walking, cycling)
Increasing percent of population in urban areas
Increasing public concern about climate change
Uptake of public transport
Increasing investment in active transport infrastructure
Increasing political concern about climate change
Increasing investment in public transport infrastructure
Urban form that supports active transport and public…
Rising fuel prices
Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU within 10 years
(1 = low, 5 = high)
Top 5 trends most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Rising fuel prices 2. Urban form supporting AT 3. Increasing investment in PT
infrastructure 4. Increasing political concern
about climate change 5. Increasing investment in
active transport infrastructure
TRENDS (III)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Like
liho
od
of
TREN
D b
eco
min
g w
ides
pre
ad in
10
yea
rs
Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A F
D
C
B
I H
E G
J
K
L
P
T
S
R
N
M O
Q
A - Rising fuel prices B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas C - Increasing public concern about climate change D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure E - Use of travel substitution technologies F - Aging population G - Decreasing car ownership among youth
H - Uptake of PT I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure J - Uptake of AT K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth
M - Increasing political concern about climate change N - Urban form that supports AT and PT O - Uptake of shared personal transport
P - Road congestion Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
S - Rising concern about health implications of transport T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road
LOW likelihood HIGH potential
LOW likelihood LOW potential
HIGH likelihood HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood LOW potential
TRENDS (IV)
TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Like
liho
od
of
TREN
D b
eco
min
g w
ides
pre
ad in
10
yea
rs
Potential for TREND to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A F
D
C
B
I H
E G
J
K
L
P
T
S
R
N
M O
Q
A - Rising fuel prices B - Increasing percent of population in urban areas C - Increasing public concern about climate change D - Increasing investment in PT infrastructure E - Use of travel substitution technologies F - Aging population G - Decreasing car ownership among youth
H - Uptake of PT I - Increasing investment in AT infrastructure J - Uptake of AT K - Decreasing drivers licensing among youth
M - Increasing political concern about climate change N - Urban form that supports AT and PT O - Uptake of shared personal transport
P - Road congestion Q - Consolidation of ports and freight hubs R - Increasing truck size and carrying capacity
S - Rising concern about health implications of transport T - Reducing cost of air transport relative to road
LOW likelihood HIGH potential
LOW likelihood LOW potential
HIGH likelihood HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood LOW potential
INNOVATIONS
INNOVATIONS (I)
1 2 3 4 5
Large scale biofuel production
Autonomously guided vehicles
Wireless induction charging for electricvehicles
Demand management through road pricing
Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
Measures that reduce parking availability incity centres
Multi-modal, integrated public transport
Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle toinfrastructure communication, collision…
Improvements in battery technologies forelectric vehicles
Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protected bikelanes, bike sharing schemes, electric…
Real-time driver feedback software(analysing driver behaviour and fuel…
Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes,scooters, small cars)
High quality video conferencing
Ultra fast broadband
Likelihood of INNOVATION becoming widespread in 10 years
(1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 innovations most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Ultra fast broadband
internet 2. High quality video
conferencing 3. Small electrified vehicles 4. Real-time driver
feedback software 5. Bicycle infrastructure
INNOVATIONS (II)
1 2 3 4 5
Real-time driver feedback software(analysing driver behaviour and fuel…
Large scale biofuel production
High quality video conferencing
Wireless induction charging for electricvehicles
Ultra fast broadband
Autonomously guided vehicles
Electric vehicle charging infrastructure
Intelligent transport systems (Vehicle toinfrastructure communication,…
Small electrified vehicles (e.g. bikes,scooters, small cars)
Improvements in battery technologiesfor electric vehicles
Measures that reduce parkingavailability in city centres
Bicycle infrastructure (e.g. protectedbike lanes, bike sharing schemes,…
Multi-modal, integrated publictransport
Demand management through roadpricing
Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
(1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 innovations most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Demand management
through road pricing 2. Multi-modal, integrated
public transport 3. Bicycle infrastructure 4. Measures to reduce inner
city parking 5. Improvements in battery
technologies for EVs
INNOVATIONS (III)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Like
liho
od
of
INN
OV
ATI
ON
bec
om
ing
wid
esp
read
in 1
0 y
ears
Potential for INNOVATION to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A
B E
D
C
I
H
G
F J
K
L M N
A - Bicycle infrastructure B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles D - Small electrified vehicles E - Reduce parking availability in city centres F - Intelligent transport systems
G - Demand management through road pricing L - Autonomously guided vehicles M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles N - Large scale biofuel production
H - Ultra fast broadband I - High quality video conferencing J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure K - Real-time driver feedback software
HIGH likelihood HIGH potential
LOW likelihood HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood LOW potential
LOW likelihood LOW potential
INNOVATIONS (IV)
TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION
A
B E
D
C
I
H
G
F J
K
L M N
A - Bicycle infrastructure B - Multi-modal, integrated public transport C - Improvements in battery technologies for electric vehicles D - Small electrified vehicles E - Reduce parking availability in city centres F - Intelligent transport systems
G - Demand management through road pricing L - Autonomously guided vehicles M - Wireless induction charging for electric vehicles N - Large scale biofuel production
H - Ultra fast broadband I - High quality video conferencing J - Electric vehicle charging infrastructure K - Real-time driver feedback software
HIGH likelihood HIGH potential
LOW likelihood HIGH potential
HIGH likelihood LOW potential
LOW likelihood LOW potential
STEP CHANGES
STEP CHANGES (I)
1 2 3 4 5
Radical societal shift to healthierlifestyles in NZ*
Major investment in NZ rail system*
Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissionsreductions) become a major driver…
Decreasing the proportion oftransport spend on roads in NZ*
Significant global economic decline
Catastrophic natural disaster ordisease outbreak
Substantial increase in cost of airtravel (NZ domestic)*
Global price on carbon
Mass production of low cost electricvehicles
Significant breakthrough in cheapbattery/ storage technologies
Constraints in oil supply
Political instability in oil rich countries
Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels
Likelihood of STEP CHANGE becoming widespread in 10 years (1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 step changes most likely to become widespread in the next 10 years: 1. Spikes in the price of
liquid fossil fuels 2. Political instability in oil
rich countries 3. Constraints in oil supply 4. Significant breakthrough
in cheap battery/ storage technologies
5. Mass production of low cost EVs
STEP CHANGES (II)
1 2 3 4 5
Catastrophic natural disaster or diseaseoutbreak
Substantial increase in cost of air travel(NZ domestic)*
Radical societal shift to healthierlifestyles in NZ*
Mass production of low cost electricvehicles
Major investment in NZ rail system*
Significant global economic decline
Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels
Decreasing the proportion of transportspend on roads in NZ*
Global price on carbon
Significant breakthrough in cheapbattery/ storage technologies
Political instability in oil rich countries
Constraints in oil supply
Sustainability (e.g. GHG emissionsreductions) become a major driver of…
Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term (1 = Low, 5 = High)
Top 5 step changes most likely to transform the transport system away from BAU in the long term: 1. Sustainability becomes a
major driver of NZ policy 2. Constraints in oil supply 3. Political instability in oil
rich countries 4. Significant breakthrough
in cheap battery/ storage technologies
5. Global price on carbon
STEP CHANGES (III)
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Lik
eli
ho
od
of
ST
EP
CH
AN
GE
be
com
ing
wid
esp
read
in 1
0 y
ear
s
Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A
B
E
D
C
I H
G
F
J
K
L
M
A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels B - Political instability in oil rich countries C - Constraints in oil supply D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery / storage technology E - Mass production of low cost electric vehicles
F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in NZ G - Global price on carbon H - Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ I - Significant global economic decline J - Major investment in NZ rail system
K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic) L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles
HIGH likelihood HIGH potential
High likelihood Low potential
Low likelihood Low potential
Low likelihood High potential
STEP CHANGES (IV)
TOP PRIORITIES FOR INTERVENTION
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
Lik
eli
ho
od
of
ST
EP
CH
AN
GE
be
com
ing
wid
esp
read
in 1
0 y
ear
s
Potential for STEP CHANGE to transform transport system away from BAU in the long term
A
B
E
D
C
I H
G
F
J
K
L
M
A - Spikes in the price of liquid fossil fuels B - Political instability in oil rich countries C - Constraints in oil supply D - Significant breakthrough in cheap battery / storage technology E - Mass production of low cost electric vehicles
F - Sustainability becomes driver of policy in NZ G - Global price on carbon H - Decreasing the proportion of transport spend on roads in NZ I - Significant global economic decline J - Major investment in NZ rail system
K - Substantial increase in cost of air travel (NZ domestic) L - Catastrophic natural disaster or disease outbreak M - Radical societal shift to healthier lifestyles
HIGH likelihood HIGH potential
High likelihood Low potential
Low likelihood Low potential
Low likelihood High potential
TIME FRAMES
TIME FRAMES
Item Median time frame
Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range for personal EVs
5-10 years
Inclusion of international aviation in post-Kyoto negotiations on global greenhouse gas emissions
5-10 years
A 20% increase in energy efficiency of freight movements in NZ 5-10 years
15% decrease in VKT for the private vehicle fleet in NZ 10-15 years
30% increase in the uptake of PT in NZ 10-15 years
Global price on carbon 10-15 years
Oil prices average $200/ barrel 10-15 years
Fully integrated, mixed modal transport system available in all NZ cities with a population over 100,000
15-20 years
EVs make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 15-20 years
Autonomous vehicles make up 20% of NZ’s private vehicle fleet 20 years +
TIME FRAMES
Median – 5-10years
0
5
10
15
20
25
0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years15-20 years Beyond 20years
Never Don't know
Nu
mb
er
of
resp
on
de
nts
Readily available battery technologies enabling a 300km range for personal electric vehicles
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15years
15-20years
Beyond 20years
Never Don'tknow
Nu
mb
er
of
resp
on
de
nts
Oil prices average $200/barrel
Median – 10-15 years
TIME FRAMES
0
5
10
15
20
25
0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15years
15-20years
Beyond 20years
Never Don'tknow
Nu
mb
er
of
resp
on
de
nts
Electric vehicles make up 20% of New Zealand's private vehicle fleet
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0-5 years 5-10years
10-15years
15-20years
Beyond20 years
Never Don'tknow
Nu
mb
er
of
resp
on
de
nts
30% increase in the Uptake of public transport in New Zealand
Median – 15-20 years
Median – 10-15 years
CHARACTERISTICS OF A
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
SYSTEM
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORT SYSTEM
High levels of agreement
• Integrated multi-modal transport system in urban areas over 100,000 people (96% strongly agree or agree)
• Cross-modal ticketing systems ( 92%)
• Making the full cost of car ownership evident to the public so that all modes are on a level playing field (82%)
• Ensuring rural areas have access to information and communication technologies to support ICT (80%)
• Technologies to support modal choice (72%)
Lower levels of agreement
• Targeted design of transport for the needs of different segments of the population (56% neutral, disagree, or strongly disagree)
• Electrifying the entire rail system (40%)
DISCUSSION
THE FUTURE OF NEW
ZEALAND'S TRANSPORTATION
SYSTEM: THE FINDINGS OF A
FOUR-STAGE DELPHI SURVEY
Debbie Hopkins, Alaric McCarthy, Janet Stephenson Energy Cultures II Project
Centre for Sustainability (CSAFE) [email protected]
MBIE (2014) Energy in New Zealand http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/publications/energy-in-new-zealand/Energy-in-New-Zealand-2014.pdf
REFERENCES