Overview of the open mobile landscape
Open Nordic Mobile, Skien, June 19, 2008 Hilde Lovett & Bjørn Remseth, iLabs project, Telenor Research & Innovation
mobile handsets & mobile internet
• Facts and expectations
– 3.6 B mobile phones in use in the world
– 1 B new mobile users expected over next 2 years in emerging markets
– 32 mobile phones sold per second (4 human births per second)
• The future mobile Internet takes shape
– superior user experience and rich functionality
– easier to develop services and applications
– variety of services and applications
– open service innovation
– large volume killer app’s as well as smaller niches
2
Mobile Competitive Arena
• Players coming from different competitive arenas ...
• Want to bring their successes to the new mobile competitive arena– services
– business models
– ways of working
– innovation & collaboration models
Computers & Electronics
Software
Mobile Handsets
Mobile operators
Internetservices
Mobile Competitive
Arena
• Need to preserve and build strength– stimulate growth and innovation – reduce cost
We see that open source is a key factor3
US$ 79,78 BN
US$24.01 BN
US$ 16.59 BN
US$13,87 BN
US$ 17,8 BN
Revenues
4
The emerging long-tail of mobile services
# users
# services
iPhone and Android are setting the scenefor the next wave of mobile innovations
core services
innovation & growth enablers(terminals and servers)
complementary servicescompetition
A simple modelling of the dynamics in the mobile arena
5
bilateral co-operation
widgets
A simple model of mobile terminals
mobile web-based applications
downloadable applications
operating system
harmonisation layer
innovation & growth enablerscash prize competition
summer of code
core services
search
Google in the competitive arena
7
complementary services
all services using Google enablers
and services
bilateral co-operation
competition
widget platforms
Mobile Service Development with Google
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
operating system8
Nokia in the competitive arena
9
bilateral co-operation
competitioninnovation & growth enablers
core services
complementary services
widget platforms
Mobile Service Development with Nokia
mobile terminal
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
operating system
NOKIA S4010
Apple in the competitive arena
11
innovation & growth enablers
Cash prize competitionVenture capitalServer HW/SWApple account
complementary services
phone applications
(authorised and unauthorised)
competition
core servicesbilateral co-operation
widget platforms
Mobile Service Development with Apple
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
operating system
Cocoa
12
Sun in the competitive arena
13
competition
bilateral co-operation
innovation & growth enablersJava.net
JavaOne conferenceJCP Java
community Process
complementary services
softwaresells hardware
core services
widget platforms
Mobile Service Development with Sun
mobile terminal
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
operating systemFX mobile
Gnu / Linux in the competitive arena
15
innovation & growth enablerscompetition
bilateral co-operationcore services
complementary services
Gnu softwareenables even more software
widget platforms
Mobile Service Development with GNU / Linux
mobile terminal
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
operating system
core services
innovation & growth enablers
complementary servicescompetition
Patterns in the mobile arena
17
bilateral co-operation
clouded services and open apis
open standards and open source emerging
coopetition
fast feedback loops with lead-users
Innovation through complementary services
• Large growth will (also) come from small, new innovators
– some create value and utility for low volume niches– some have a potential to grow into high volume “killer applications”
• Attracting long-tail players, creating joint value, can be the recipe for sustainable growth
– helping them start
– helping them disseminate and distribute – helping them grow
18
There is still a large degree of terminal fragmentation
19
widget platforms
mobile web-based applications
harmonisation layer
operating systemFX mobile
NOKIA S40
Cocoa
... but a lot of applications on many types of terminal
will open source help?
Conclusions
• Community based collaboration emerging
• Community based involvement of lead/end-users emerging
• Still fragmentation on handsets - but still a lot of services across platforms
• Open source is a central driver for all these issues
• Thank you for your attention
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