1
Opening Address
Greg Bourne
CEO WWF-Australia and
Chair CERF Reference Panel
The Resilience Challenge
Playing the World Cup!Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia
2
Agenda
• The State of the World and Overshoot
• Continually missing thresholds
• Politics, climate change and courting thresholds
• Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools
• The Choice
3
Drivers of biodiversity loss growing in intensity
•Most direct drivers of degradation in ecosystem services remain constant or are growing in intensity in most ecosystems
4
Overshoot into ecological debt
WWF Living Planet Report 2008
5
Overshoot and collapse?
6
How resilient are we?
1990 2100
“Smooth landing”
One scenario:
The Carrying Capacityof the Planet
The EcologicalFootprint of Humanity
J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864
The Carrying Capacity
of the Planet
The EcologicalFootprint of Humanity
1990 2100
“Overshoot and collapse”
A more likely scenario:
Fig.4. Overshoot and collapse – in principle
Overshoot
Collapse
7
Policy relevant “Tipping Elements” in the Earth’s Climate System
In and out of ice ages – last couple of millions of years
oscillating every 70,000 years or so!
Cold
Warm
Hot
Tipping elements and thresholds!
Cold
Warm
Hot
Loss of each “tipping element”
increases the risk of passing thresholds
Tipping elements and thresholds!
Cold
Warm
Hot
Loss of each “tipping element”
increases the risk of passing thresholds
Tipping elements and thresholds!
Cold
Warm
Hot
Loss of each “tipping element”
increases the risk of passing thresholds
Tipping elements and thresholds!
Cold
Warm
Hot
At some point we trigger runaway global warming
Overshoot and collapse to a new
stable state?
Tipping elements and thresholds!
13
Agenda
• The State of the World and Overshoot
• Continually missing thresholds
• Politics, climate change and courting thresholds
• Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools
• The Choice
14
Canada and CodS
TO
CK
S
TIME
ST
OC
KS
Probabilistic error bar
Discontinuity
1. External Warnings
2. Expert Warnings
3. Expert Consensus
4. Rejection due to cost
5. Cod Collapse
Mid 1980s
eg inshore fishermen
1986
Keats Report
1990
Harris Report
1990-91
Ministry (DFO)
1992
Nothing left to catch
15
North Sea and CodS
TO
CK
S
TIME
ST
OC
KS
Probabilistic error bar
Discontinuity
1. External Warnings
2. Expert Warnings
3. Expert Consensus
4. Rejection due to cost
5. Cod Collapse
by 1990s
environment groups
1993-6
Shephard, Cook
Report
2000
ICES assessment
2001
EU Council of Ministers
200?
Nothing left to catch
16
Arctic Ice Cover
TIME
AR
EA
Probabilistic error bar
Discontinuity
4. Rejection due to cost
1. External Warnings
by 1980s
Scientists NGOs
2. Expert Warnings
1990
IPCC 1St Assesment
Report
3. Expert Consensus
2007
IPCC 4AR
5.Total ice sheet loss?
20??
17
World GDP and Traded Resource Needs
Probabilistic error bar
VO
LU
ME
AN
D P
RIC
E
Probabilistic error bar
Discontinuity
1. External Warnings
by 1970s
Limits to Growth
2. Expert Warnings
2007-8
Stern Garnaut et
al?
2008-10
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Agenda
• The State of the World and Overshoot
• Continually missing thresholds
• Politics, climate change and courting thresholds
• Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools
• The Choice
19
Unravelling trends, predicting discontinuitiesIS
SU
E
TIME
Probabilistic error bar
Discontinuity
Detracting event
Reinforcing events
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Climate Change: Public awareness and concernIM
PO
RT
AN
CE
O
F
CL
IMA
TE
CH
AN
GE
TIME
Erosion of importance
Heightened awareness
Heightened public concern
Health
Law and order
Education
Jobs
BushfiresDrought
Copenhagen + Sceptics
HIGH
LOW
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Climate changeIS
SU
E
TIME
What are the best offensive interventions?
What are the best defensive interventions
?
Discontinuities, what type, impact,
magnitude and probability?
It is unacceptable to wait until you know for sure!
“All science is always provisional” (Karl Popper)
The probabilities are now too high to ignore.
Politicians may be about to act!
22
Political action lags societal concernP
RO
PE
NS
ITY
TO
EN
AC
T
HIGH
LOW
TIME
Law and regulation enacted
Heightened confidence
Leave well alone
At the stroke of a
pen!
A large risk to business is when politicians make up their minds and then act!
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Propensity to really act on Climate Change
Progressive Conservative
Howard Government
High Low
Nat
Lab
Grn
Lib
Lab
Here or Here???
Rudd GovernmentNatGrn
Lib
What next?
Nat
Lab
Grn
Lib Con
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Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose!
BAU defaults to societal,
economic and environmental breakdown. A
severe procrastination
penalty
But with Runaway Climate Change
Societal, economic and environmental
breakdown
At least -20% GDP
loss
New Sustainability Paradigm
-1 to 2% GDP loss
But possibly a
gain in world GDP
Keep on as Business As Usual
(BAU)
Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC
rise
Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to
“ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world
25
Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose!
BAU is procrastination.
If copied around the
world it quickly defaults to societal,
economic and environmental
breakdown
But with Runaway Climate Change
Overshoot and Collapse
A Sustainable Australia in a Sustainable
World
Keep on as Business As Usual
(BAU)
Work for real reductions
25% by 2020 &
a Global Deal
Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “Achieve Advantage
for Australia” in a breakdown world
A Transformed, Productive and
Adapted Australia
An Impoverished, Environmentally
Unproductive Continent
26
Agenda
• The State of the World and overshoots
• Continually missing thresholds
• Politics, climate change and courting thresholds
• Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools
• The Choice
27
Procrastination?
Data sufficient to avoid major
errors
Data more than enough to make a
defendable decision!
Procrastination?
Decision Window
Learning Period
Time doing research and positioning for decisions
28
“Good Enough” tools
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“Good Enough” tools
30
1. Elements can be identified which have the potential to tip. (You can see other stable states and possible thresholds.)
2. Decisions taken within a “Political Time Horizon” can determine what happens.
(There is still time to have an effect.)
3. The time to observe change plus the time to trigger it lie within an “Ethical Time Horizon”.
(Events too far away have little chance of influencing today’s decisions)
4. A significant number of people care about the consequences should an element tip.
(A significant change in human welfare could occur or part of the biosphere could be significantly disrupted.)
Avoiding the tip!
31
Agenda
• The State of the World and Australia
• Continually missing thresholds
• Politics, climate change and courting thresholds
• Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools
• The Choice
32
If we choose to lose!
“The phenomenon of overshoot and collapse – and the possibility of global collapse – is still relevant and worthy of study.
Global collapse triggered by ever growing emissions of greenhouse gases is still conceivable in the first half of the 21st century, because of the unfortunate combination of global decision delays and self-reinforcing feedback in the climate system.
Interestingly it may prove difficult to verify that global collapse did take place—even if it did, and even after the fact.
Global collapse – defined as a situation where more than one billion people lose one half of what they hold dear in less than 20 years – may well be hidden from the headlines and the history books.
J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864
33
The 21st century is more likely to be described as a period of intense local strife, institutional breakdown, regionalization and general malaise. The root cause – humanity overstepping an environmental limit – may well be lost in the clutter of historical detail.
Global Collapse could remain fiction, even if it proved to be fact.”
If we choose to lose!
J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864
34
If we choose to win!
We must understand and incorporate the concepts of resilience thinking into our political, economic and social structures.
We must start at the highest level of the system in which we might want to intervene.
On Climate Change the geopolitical system and the biophysical system are intimately inter-related and should be seen as one!
Decisions must be taken within the “political time horizon”.
Enough people must care about a positive outcome in order for politicians to have the courage to take action!
35
Opening Address
Greg Bourne
CEO WWF-Australia and
Chair CERF Reference Panel
The Resilience Challenge
Playing to win!Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia