Oxfid inequality discussion
Kevin Watkins, ODI
24 February 2014
3
Inequality reflections: who said it?
• We are creating societies where we have large groups of haves and have nots – and we need to address this
• Distribution should undo excess and each (person) have enough• In far too many countries the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by far
too few people• When wealth captures government policymaking, the rules bend to favor
the rich, often to the detriment of everyone else• Today we also have to say “thou shalt not” to an economy of exclusion
and inequality• Poverty matters; injustice matters. Mere inequality is beside the point.• I didn’t come into politics to make sure David Beckham earns less money
4
Inequality: what worries us?
• Inequality of what – and how much is a bad thing?• ‘Wealth versus capability’• ‘Opportunity versus outcome’• ‘Absolute versus relative deprivation’• Social mobility versus ‘steady state’ inequality and
poverty• Interlocking disparities – gender, wealth and location
5 Source:
An inequality snapshot
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 350%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Estimates (WB)Baseline ProjectionsBaseline Growth & Declining InequalityBaseline Growth & Worsening Inequality
Head
cou
nt
Rati
o
2030 (mn)Baseline: 385
Declining inequality: 226Worsening inequality: 697
World poverty trends – two scenarios to 2030
Source: Brookings 2013
Changes in share of national consumption by decile
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 Zambia (2002-06)
Decile
Change in s
hare
of
consum
pti
on
contr
olled b
y e
ach d
ecile (
% p
oin
t)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 Nigeria (2003-09)
Decile
Change in s
hare
of
consum
pti
on
contr
olled b
y e
ach d
ecile (
% p
oin
t)
Source: Brookings 2013
Projected and actual change in poverty incidence
Series1
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Actual change (across two survey periods)Change projected from initial distribution pattern
Pe
rce
nta
ge
po
int
0.17 million
6.37 million
0.72 million
0.66 million
Ghana1998-2005
Poverty fell but should have fallen
further
Tanzania2000-2007
Poverty fell but should have fallen
further
Zambia2000-2006
Poverty should have
fallen but increased
Nigeria2003-2009
Poverty increased more than anticipated
Source: Brookings 2013
9
10
The wealth effect: People from the poorest householdswho are in education poverty
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Phili
ppin
es
Turk
ey
Viet
nam
Egyp
t
Keny
aCo
ngo
Indi
a
Nig
eria
Yem
en
Nep
al
Paki
stan
Mor
occo
Sene
gal
Chad
Burk
ina
Faso
Shar
e of
the
popu
latio
n w
ith le
ss th
an 4
and
less
than
2 y
ears
of e
duca
tion
Extreme education poverty People with less than 2 years of education
Education poverty
People with less than 4years of education
The gender effect: Girls from the poorest households who are in education poverty
In Yemen, the poorest 20% of householdshave an education poverty incidence
double the national average
And, for girls from the poorest 20%of households, the proportion triples.
The education poverty threshold (age 17-22)
Richest 20%
Poorest 20%
Poor, rural Hausa girls
Rich, rural girls
Poor, urban boys
Poor, rural girls
Nigeria
Rural Hausa
Rich, urban boys
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Rich, rural boys
C. A. R.
Chad
Bangladesh
Cameroon
Honduras
IndonesiaBolivia
Cuba
Ukraine
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Av
erag
e nu
mbe
r of y
ears
of s
choo
ling
(Age
gro
up 1
5-17
yea
rs)
Education poverty
Extreme education poverty
3.3 years
6.4 years
3.5 years
9.7 years
0.5 years
10.3 years
2.6 years
0.3 years
BoysGirls
6.7 years
10 years
Education disparities in Nigeria
The case of Nigeria
Source: UNESCO GMR
13
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00
Senegal
Malawi
Uganda
Côte d'Ivoire
Gambia
Cameroon
Niger
Namibia
Mozambique
Rwanda
Benin
Central African Republic
Guinea-Bissau
D. R. Congo
Ethiopia
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Nigeria
Difference in years of schooling
Gap in years of schooling between children from richest and poorest 20 per cent - two post-2003 survey periods (selected countries, 17-22
age group)
Source: UNESCO World Inequality Database on Education
14
‘Progress’ on child survival
Bolivia2003-2008
Burkina Faso2003-2010
Cameroon2004-2011
Ghana2003-2008
Guinea2000-2005
Haiti2000-2005/06
Mali2001-2006
Philippines2003-2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percentage reduction in under-5 deaths across two post-2000 survey periods - richest and poorest households
Poorest 20%
Richest 20%
Perc
en
tag
e r
ed
ucti
on
in
th
e n
um
ber
of
ch
ild
death
s
(per
1,0
00
liv
e b
irth
s)