Dilhan ILK/DeGolyer and MacNaughton
A Presentation in the SPE PRMS Workshop
13 November 2013
Brisbane, AUSTRALIA
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional Resources
13 November 2013
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North America Shale PlaysSignificant production from shale gas and oil plays in North America
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Production from Unconvetional ResourcesU.S. Tight oil production by select plays, 2000-2012 (millions of barrels/day)
13 November 2013
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(Ref. from Sieminski 2013 (Energy Information Administration))Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Production from Unconventional ResourcesSignificant production growth from liquids-rich plays
13 November 2013
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(Ref. from Texas Railroad Commission)
(Ref. McKinsey Global Institute 2013)
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Production from Unconventional ResourcesEagle Ford Well Count from Texas Railroad Commission
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January 2013 September 2013
January 2013 ≈ 3,400. September 2013 ≈ 6,400.Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Production from Unconventional ResourcesFluid flow and storage mechanisms are different in unconventional plays
13 November 2013
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Fluid storage in the nanopores, organic matter, adsorbed?
Flow path can be as small as 10-20 molecular diameters
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Mineral composition varies widely. Each play is unique.
Decline Curve Analysis — Modified HyperbolicSchematic represents the most common approach to EUR estimation
13 November 2013
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(From Tom Blasingame)
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Decline Curve Analysis — IssuesSchematic illustrates the uncertainty associated with decline curves
13 November 2013
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Possible to fit the data with various "b" values and obtain a wide range for EUR A systematic methodology is critical to obtain a well performance curve instead of
using a single decline curve
102 102
103 103
104 104
105 105
4,00
0
3,80
0
3,60
0
3,40
0
3,20
0
3,00
0
2,80
0
2,60
0
2,40
0
2,20
0
2,00
0
1,80
0
1,60
0
1,40
0
1,20
0
1,00
0
800
600
400
2000
Production Time, days
Schematic for Haynesville Shale Gas Well Performance PossibilitiesProduction Rate and Time Plot (Semilog Scale)
Gas
Flo
wra
te, q
g, M
SCF/
D
b = 1.5EUR = 7.81 Bscf
b = 1.0EUR = 6.15 Bscf
b = 0.8EUR = 5.31 Bscf
b = 0EUR = 3.98 Bscf
≈2 years of production data from a Haynesville Shale gas well
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Decline Curve Analysis — IssuesNumerical simulation study presents errors associated with decline analysis
13 November 2013
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x
yPressure
MonitoringPoint No. 1
PressureMonitoringPoint No. 2
HydraulicFracture
Wellbore
X
X
x
y
x
yPressure
MonitoringPoint No. 1
PressureMonitoringPoint No. 2
HydraulicFracture
Wellbore
X
X
Numerical Model Considers:●Reservoir Layering.●kv/kh ratio.●Fracture Length, xf.●Fracture Conductivity, FcD.Analysis/Validation Approach:●Fit q(t) with Arps' hyperbolic relation.●Compare reserves to model at 30 years.
SPE 109625 (2007)Estimating Reserves in Tight Gas Sands at HP/HTReservoir Conditions: Use and Misuse of an Arps Decline Curve Methodology
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Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Decline Curve Analysis — New ModelsPower-law exponential relation is a powerful tool to match rate-time data
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●Flow Regimes: (Time-Rate Data)■ Identify diagnostic/characteristic behavior exhibited by data.■ Evaluate D(t) and b(t) continuously (at all points).■ Power-law exp. relation is based on power-law behavior of D-parameter.
dtdqq
dtdb
g
g
/
dtdq
qD g
g
1
D-parameter:
b-parameter:
Basis for decline curve relations:
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Decline Curve Analysis: Eagle Ford Oil ExampleEUR is estimated using various methods to yield a range of outcome
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q/Np and time plot Oil rate and time plot
■ All model matches are imposed on data (for oil rates)■ EURPLE = 238 MSTB, EURSE = 237 MSTB, EURLGM = 248 MSTB,
EURMHYP = 334 MSTB, EURDNG = 487 MSTBPerspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Continuous Estimation of Ultimate RecoveryEUR is calculated continuously and presented as a function of time
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a. Continuous EUR (CEUR) process plots.
b. CEUR hyperbolic, PLE, and q-Gp summary plots.
])(1[/)( )/1( bigi tbDqtgq
]ˆexp[ˆ)( nigi tDtDqtgq
]/[ )( igi DqGpGiDgiqtgq
[hyperbolic]
[PLE]
[qg(t) vs. Gp(t)]
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Model-based Production AnalysisObjective of model-based analysis is to honor flow physics in the reservoir
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● Model Parameters: ■ Permeability (k)■ Fracture half-length (xf)■ Fracture conductivity (Fc)■ Drainage area (A)■ Skin factor (s)■ Well length (Lw)■ Number of fractures (nf)
1
2 3
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia
Model-based Production AnalysisObjective of model-based analysis is to honor flow physics in the reservoir
13 November 2013
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(1:2)(1:4)
(1:1)
(1:1 Slope — Fracture interference/Depletion (SRV?))
(1:2 Slope — Linear flow/High fracture conductivity)
(1:4 Slope — Low fracture conductivity)
Duration and existence of flow regimes are DIFFERENT for each shale play
EURLF (VERY OPTIMISTIC)
EURDep (CONSERVATIVE ??)
Pseudo-elliptical flow regime (flow from matrix to collection of fractures) might exist after fracture interference.
3
1
2
Perspectives on the Well Performance Analysis and Forecasting in Unconventional ResourcesSPE PRMS Workshop -- Brisbane, Australia