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www.sensor-ip.org428/05/2010 http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI/
Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT)an engineering perspective
Peter Verweij
Alterra, Wageningen-UR
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SENSOR project
Develop cross sectoral ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools to support decision making on policies related multifunctional land use in EU
Consortium with 39 Research Institutions
15 EU Countries
China, Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay
>100 researchers
Project duration: Dec 2004 – May 2009
Regional scale with European coverage
Constraint: use existing pan-European data
Main product: SIAT for discussion support
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SIAT focus
EU – Impact Assessment
Ex-ante SIA is a procedure accompanying policy development at European Commission. It is to analyse sustainability impacts and side effects of an intended policy option
Identify the problem
Define the objectives
Develop main policy options
Analyse their impacts
Compare the options
Outline policy monitoring and evaluation
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Impact assessment
Ex-ante analysis of impacts of potential policies
Involves determining economic, environmental and social impacts of policy options
Possible
future
Is defined
by a
Outlook
Baseline
scenario
Policy option
(defined by policy
instruments)
Policy
objective
Can be reached by
several
Policy
Indicators (scoring varies per
spatial entity)
drives drives
Impact
Assessment
Concerns a
Compares
Carried out for a
(number of)
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Policy
Potential policies are grouped in policy cases around a number of central themes that are important in multi-functional land use
Bio-energy
Promotion of production and consumption
Bio-diversity Conservation of nature areas and in relation to agriculture,
forestry, tourism, etc.
Common Agricultural Policy financial reformContinuation vs promotion of knowledge economy
Forest strategy
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Outlook
Extrapolating scenarios for exogenous parameters (e.g. climate change, or population growth)
Expert judgement to tweak possible trends
Baseline A
Baseline B
Baseline C
FuturePresentPast
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Drivers to indicators (1/3)
Conversion in SIAT system by: Look up indicator values in database Modeling
(meta) model Knowledge rule Chain of models
Mixture of the above
ConvertDrivers
(e.g. policy,
technological innovations,
Climate change, population growth)
Spatial explicit indicators
(quantitative and/or
qualitative)
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Land use
changes
[meta model]
Impact
indicator
[knowledge rule]
Static
maps
[database]
Land use
function
s
[model]
Convert
IndicatorsDrivers
Drivers to indicators (2/3)
• Summaries of the most important societal, environmental en economical aspects of a region• contain region specific sustainability limits per indicator (standards, thresholds,
targets,…)
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Drivers to indicators (3/3)meta-model sources
Multi-sectoral land use models Sectoral land use models
Na
tio
na
l N
uts
2/3
1
x1
km
2
NEMISIS
CLUE
Sectoral models(CAPRI
EFISCENEtc.)
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SIAT requirements
Interactive web based tool to estimate the possible consequences of different policy assumptions on land use on sustainability within different images of the future. Identify areas that are sensitive to particular policies Identify regional differences and analyse causes look at potential ‘trade-offs’ Examine the concept of sustainability tolerance limits undertake all analysis dynamically Be able to compare different scenarios
Flexible in terms of: New policies / baselines / target times Regionalisations (extent and resolution)
Indicators
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System architecture
Simulation services
SIAT user interface
Resources
(e.g. factsheets)
Messaging
Map services
MessagingMessaging
OpenMI Persistence
Spatial
database
Model
OpenMI
Model
OpenMI
Model
OpenMI
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Startup screen
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Background: factsheet example
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Define your simulation (1/3)
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Define your simulation (2/3)
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Define your simulation (3/3)
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Determine impacts at EU levelRadar chart: look at trade offs
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Analyse impactssingle member state
Europe
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Analyse impacts: exampleLand use functions of several cluster regions
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Analyse impacts: exampleIndicators of several NutsX regions
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Limit sensitivity
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Drill down Land Use Function
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Compare simulations
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Summary
Discussion support
Result analysis (e.g. find trade-offs, regional differences)
Describe assumptions (factsheets)
Explore causal links (drill down and factsheets)
Flexible component based framework
Policies (policy case, baseline, policy instruments, indicators,
regionalisations, target times, factsheets, etc.)
Visualisations
Data / models
Integration of different model types (present and future models)
Examine concept of sustainability limits using LUF approach
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End of slideshow
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Baseline: business as usual
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Policy case: CAP reform