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1
Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
PHN VIII. THM NH KHCH HNG VAY
NI DUNG CHI TIT.................................................................................................................. 15
I. MC TIU CA MT KHON VAY............................................................................... 15
II. 6 NGUYN TC THM NH KHCH HNG VAY.................................................... 16
1. Thm nh t cch khch hng............................................................................................ 17
2. Thm nh nng lc khch hng ......................................................................................... 17
3. Thm nh nng lc ti chnh / sn xut kinh doanh ........................................................ 17
4. Thm nh ti sn bo m .................................................................................................. 18
5. Thm nh phng n / d n v cc yu t tc ng ....................................................... 18
6. Cc bin php kim sot ....................................................................................................... 18
III.VN DUNG 6 NGUYN TC VO VIC THM NH KHCH HNG VAY ........ 19
1. KHCH HNG C NHN ................................................................................................. 19
a. Thm nh t cch khch hng............................................................................................. 19
Tham kho Ph Lc s 8A. : GIAO TIP V LNG NH KHCH HNG QUA GIAO
TIP. ............................................................................................................................ 19
b. nh gi nng lc php l, nng lc hnh vi dn s, nng lc iu hnh v qun l snxut kinh doanh, m hnh t chc, b tr lao ng.............................................................. 19
(1) Xc nh nng lc php lut, nng lc hnh vi dn s ................................................ 19
(2) M hnh t chc, b tr lao ng ca khch hng vay (i vi khch hng vay vn
phc v sn xut kinh doanh) ...................................................................................... 20
(3) Kh nng qun tr ........................................................................................................ 20
c. Thm nh nng lc ti chnh / sn xut kinh doanh .......................................................... 21
(1) Kim tra tnh chnh xc ca bo co kt qu sn xut kinh doanh .............................. 21
(2) Phn tch nh gi tnh hnh hot ng v kh nng ti chnh .................................... 22
(a) i vi cc khch hng vay vn sn xut kinh doanh ................................................ 22
- Tnh hnh sn xut ....................................................................................................... 23
- Tnh hnh bn hng ...................................................................................................... 23
(b) Tm hiu v phn tch v ti chnh khch hng........................................................... 25
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
(3) nh gi mc p ng mt s iu kin v ti chnh ............................................ 26
d. Thm nh cc bin php bo m tin vay .......................................................................... 30
(1)Kim tra tnh trng thc t ca ti sn bo m tin vay ................................................. 31
Ph Lc s 8B. NI DUNG KIM TRA TNH TRNG THC T CA TI SN BOM ........................................................................................................................... 31
(2) Phn tch, thm nh ti sn bo m tin vay ............................................................ 31
e. Phn tch, thm nh phng n vay vn / d n u t v cc yu t tc ng............... 31
Hng dn phn tch thm nh PA / DA ........................................................................... 32
(a) nh gi chung v PA /DA ......................................................................................... 32
- nh gi mc tiu ca PA / DA .................................................................................. 32
+ Mc tiu ca PA / DA nhm t n ni dung g ?..................................................... 32+ S cn thit ca PA / DA ? .......................................................................................... 32
+ Mc ph hp ca PA / DA ..................................................................................... 32
Mc ph hp xu th pht trin ............................................................................... 32
Mc ph hp vi mc tiu pht trin ca ngnh, vng, a phng..................... 32
Mc ph hp vi thi c u t............................................................................. 32
+ Tc ng v mt x hi ............................................................................................... 33
Li ch i vi nn kinh t........................................................................................... 33
ng gp vo ngn sch ............................................................................................. 33
To ra ngun ngoi t .................................................................................................. 34
T l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n .................................................................. 34
Cch tnh ton t l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n .......................................... 34
- nh gi v nhu cu sn phm ca PA / DA .............................................................. 35
+ Ni dung cn kho st ................................................................................................. 35
Cn phn loi s cu d tr ......................................................................................... 36
+ Yu cu ca vic nh gi v nhu cu sn phm ........................................................ 36
Gi tr ca cc phng php d tr v cc cn c dng d tr ............................ 36
Tham kho Ph Lc 8C CC PHNG PHP D TR S CU. ................................ 37
Chn la phng php d tr .............................................................................................. 37
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
D tr s cu bng cc d kin khc .......................................................................... 37
S hp l ca s cu sau iu chnh ........................................................................... 38
- nh gi v cung sn phm ......................................................................................... 38
- Kh nng cnh tranh ca sn phm ............................................................................. 39+ Th trng ni a ........................................................................................................ 39
+ Th trng xut khu ................................................................................................... 40
- Phng thc tiu th v mng li phn phi ............................................................ 40
- Kh nng sn xut v tiu th sn phm ca PA / DA ................................................ 41
- nh gi kh nng cung cp nguyn, nhin vt liu ................................................... 41
- nh gi phng din k thut ................................................................................... 42
+ a im xy dng ...................................................................................................... 42
Phn tch yu t kinh t ca a im xy dng.......................................................... 42
Cc li ch v nh hng x hi ................................................................................. 42
+ Quy m sn xut v sn phm ca DA ....................................................................... 43
+ Cng ngh k thut...................................................................................................... 43
Cng ngh.................................................................................................................... 43
Thit b ........................................................................................................................ 45
+ Quy m, gii php xy dng ....................................................................................... 46
Quy m ........................................................................................................................ 46
Gii php xy dng..................................................................................................... 46
Xy dng ..................................................................................................................... 46
+ nh gi tc ng mi trng v gii php x l ....................................................... 48
- nh gi v phng din t chc, qun l thc hin DA ........................................... 48
- nh gi phng n ngun vn .................................................................................. 49+ Tng vn u t .......................................................................................................... 49
Ni dung nh gi ....................................................................................................... 49
Cc phng php thm nh ....................................................................................... 49
S bo m cc ngun vn.......................................................................................... 50
+ Mc ch c th v hng s dng vn u t ........................................................... 50
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Nhu cu vn u t theo tin thc hin d n ........................................................ 50
Cc ni dung nh gi ................................................................................................ 50
Phng php nh gi cch b tr vn cho thi gian thi cng xy dng cng trnh . 51
+ Hiu sut vn u t.................................................................................................... 52 Mc tiu hao vn .................................................................................................... 52
Mc hiu lc vn u t......................................................................................... 52
- nh gi hiu qu v mt ti chnh ............................................................................. 52
+ nh gi v tnh kh thi ca ngun vn, c cu vn u t....................................... 52
+ nh gi v mt th trng, phng n v kh nng tiu th sn phm, dch v ca
d n............................................................................................................................ 52
+ nh gi v kh nng cung cp nguyn, nhin vt liu v c tnh ca dy chuyncng ngh .................................................................................................................... 53
+ Xc nh nhu cu vn lu ng................................................................................... 53
+ Xc nh trch nhim ti chnh ca ch d n ............................................................ 53
- Phn tch ri ro d n .................................................................................................. 54
+ Ri ro v c ch chnh sch ......................................................................................... 54
+ Ri ro v vn hnh....................................................................................................... 54
+ Ri ro v th trng ..................................................................................................... 55
+ Ri ro v mi trng v x hi.................................................................................... 56
+ Ri ro t yu t kinh t v m ..................................................................................... 56
(b) Tnh ton hiu qu ti chnh, kh nng tr n ca PASXKD / DAT ....................... 56
- Phn cho vay ngn hn ................................................................................................ 56
+ C s tnh ton ............................................................................................................ 56
+ Tin hnh ..................................................................................................................... 57
- Phn cho vay trung hn ............................................................................................... 57
+ Xc nh m hnh d n .............................................................................................. 58
+ Phn tch v c lng s liu tnh ton ..................................................................... 59
C s xc nh ............................................................................................................. 59
Tin hnh ..................................................................................................................... 59
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Lp cc bng tnh Thu nhp v Chi ph....................................................................... 60
S cn thit .................................................................................................................. 60
Ni dung ...................................................................................................................... 60
Cc bng tnh thu nhp v chi ph (Bng tnh trung gian) .......................................... 61
Bng 1 : Bng tnh sn lng v doanh thu ....................................................................... 61
Bng 2 : Bng tnh chi ph hot ng................................................................................. 62
Bng 2.1 : Bng tnh chi ph nguyn vt liu..................................................................... 62
Bng 2.2 : Bng tnh cc chi ph qun l bn hng ............................................................ 63
Bng 3 : Khu hao.............................................................................................................. 64
Bng 4.1 : Tnh ton li vay vn trung, di hn................................................................. 64
Bng 4.2 : Tnh ton li vay vn ngn hn ........................................................................ 65
Bng 5 : Bng tnh nhu cu vn lu ng.......................................................................... 65
+ Lp bo co kt qu kinh doanh, Bo co lu chuyn tin t v tnh ton kh nng tr
n ca DA.................................................................................................................... 67
Lp Bo co kt qu kinh doanh ................................................................................. 67
Bng 6 : Bo co kt qu kinh doanh................................................................................. 67
Lp Bng cn i tr n.............................................................................................. 70Bng 7 : Bng cn i tr n............................................................................................... 70
Lp bng tnh im ho vn ........................................................................................ 71
Bng 8 : Bng tnh im ho vn ........................................................................................ 71
Lp Bo co lu chuyn tin t ................................................................................... 73
Bng 9 : Bo co lu chuyn tin t ................................................................................... 75
Phn tch nhy ........................................................................................................ 76
Cc hm tnh ton ........................................................................................................ 77
+ Lp bo co cn i ..................................................................................................... 78
Mc ch...................................................................................................................... 78
Nguyn tc lp ............................................................................................................. 78
Bng 10 : Bng cn i k hoch....................................................................................... 79
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
f. Cc bin php kim sot (Ti thm nh) ............................................................................. 80
(1) Vic ti thm nh c thc hin theo hai phng php........................................... 80
(a) Gin tip ...................................................................................................................... 80
(b) Trc tip ...................................................................................................................... 80(2) Vic ti thm nh c tin hnh c lp m khng c s tr gip t NVTD ......... 81
(3) Quan st, kho st, kim tra thc t tm hiu nhng tc ng bn ngoi nh hng
n qu trnh thc hin PA / DA ................................................................................. 81
(4) Thm nh li tan b h svay vn, bo co thm nh, t trnh ca NVTD .......... 81
(5) Theo di kt qa thm nh h s vay ........................................................................ 81
2. KHCH HNG DOANH NGHIP .................................................................................... 82
a. Thm nh t cch khch hng............................................................................................. 82Tham kho Ph Lc s 8A. : GIAO TIP V LNG NH KHCH HNG QUA GIAO
TIP. ............................................................................................................................ 82
b. nh gi nng lc php l, nng lc hnh vi dn s, nng lc iu hnh v qun l sn
xut kinh doanh, m hnh t chc, b tr lao ng.............................................................. 82
(1) Nng lc php l ......................................................................................................... 82
(2) M hnh t chc, b tr lao ng ca doanh nghip .................................................... 83
(3) Kh nng qun tr v iu hnh ................................................................................... 83
c. Thm nh nng lc ti chnh / sn xut kinh doanh .......................................................... 84
(1) Kim tra tnh chnh xc ca cc bo co ti chnh ...................................................... 85
(2) Phn tch, nh gi tnh hnh hot ng ...................................................................... 86
- Tnh hnh sn xut ....................................................................................................... 86
- Tnh hnh bn hng ...................................................................................................... 86
(3) Kim tra mc p ng mt s iu kin v ti chnh ............................................. 87
(a) Kim tra kh nng t ch ti chnh ............................................................................. 87(b) Cc tiu chun kim tra............................................................................................... 87
(c) Phn tch ti chnh doanh nghip................................................................................ 88
- Phn tch kh nng sinh li ......................................................................................... 88
+ Mc sinh li ca vn u t........................................................................................ 88
+ Mc sinh li t bn hng............................................................................................ 89
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
- Phn tch tnh n nh.................................................................................................. 90
+ Tnh lu hot............................................................................................................... 90
+ Tnh n nh v kh nng t ti tr............................................................................. 91
- Phn tch tnh hiu qu ................................................................................................ 93+ Doanh thu t tng ti sn ............................................................................................ 93
+ Thi gian hiu lc hngtn kho to ra doanh thu ...................................................... 94
+ Thi gian thu hi cng n........................................................................................... 94
+ Thi gian thanh ton cng n..................................................................................... 95
- Phn tch hiu qu sn xut ......................................................................................... 95
+ Hiu sut lao ng...................................................................................................... 96
+ Hiu sut ph lao ng................................................................................................ 96+ tp trung vn.......................................................................................................... 96
+ Hiu sut vn c nh .................................................................................................. 96
- Phn tch sc tng trng ............................................................................................ 97
+ T l tng trng doanh thu ........................................................................................ 97
+ T l tng trng li nhun......................................................................................... 97
- nh ga trn th trng ............................................................................................... 97
+ T l Gi c trn Thu nhp mt C Phn (PER)......................................................... 97
+ T l Gi c trn Gi tr Ghi s (PBR)........................................................................ 98
- nh ga vic bo ton vn ......................................................................................... 98
d. Thm nh cc bin php bo m tin vay .......................................................................... 99
(1) Kim tra tnh trng thc t ca ti sn bo m tin vay ............................................ 99
Ph Lc s 8B. NI DUNG KIM TRA TNH TRNG THC T CA TI SN BO
M ........................................................................................................................... 99
(2) Phn tch, thm nh ti sn bo m tin vay ............................................................ 99
e. Phn tch, thm nh phng n vay vn / d n u t v cc yu t tc ng............. 100
(1) nh gi mc p ng ......................................................................................... 100
(2) Hng dn phn tch thm nh PA / DA ................................................................. 100
(a) nh gichung v PA /DA ....................................................................................... 100
- nh gi mc tiu ca PA / DA ................................................................................ 100
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Mc tiu ca PA / DA nhm t n ni dung g ?................................................... 100
+ S cn thit ca PA / DA ? ........................................................................................ 101
+ Mc ph hp ca PA / DA ................................................................................... 101
Mc ph hp xu th pht trin ............................................................................. 101 Mc ph hp vi mc tiu pht trin ca ngnh, vng, a phng................... 101
Mc ph hp vi thi c u t........................................................................... 101
+ Tc ng v mt x hi ............................................................................................. 101
Li ch i vi nn kinh t......................................................................................... 101
T l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n ................................................................ 103
- nh gi v nhu cu sn phm ca PA / DA ............................................................ 103
+ Ni dung cn kho st ............................................................................................... 103
- Mt s phng php d tr s cu c s dng ..................................................... 103
+ Tham kho Ph Lc 8C CC PHNG PHP D TR S CU. ...................... 103
Chn la phng php d tr............................................................................................ 103
+ D tr s cu bng cc d kin khc ........................................................................ 104
- Yu cu ca vic nh gi v nhu cu sn phm ...................................................... 104
+ Gi tr ca cc phng php d tr v cc cn c dng d tr .......................... 104
+ S hp l ca s cu sau iu chnh ......................................................................... 105
+ Phn loi s cu d tr ............................................................................................. 105
- nh gi v cung sn phm ....................................................................................... 106
- Kh nng cnh tranh ca sn phm ........................................................................... 107
+ Th trng ni a ...................................................................................................... 107
+ Th trng xut khu ................................................................................................. 107
- Phng thc tiu th v mng li phn phi .......................................................... 107
- Kh nng sn xut v tiu th sn phm ca PA / DA .............................................. 107
- nh gi kh nng cung cp nguyn, nhin vt liu ................................................. 108
- nh gi phng din k thut ................................................................................. 109
+ a im xy dng .................................................................................................... 109
Phn tch yu t kinh t ca a im xy dng........................................................ 109
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Cc li ch v nh hng x hi ............................................................................... 109
+ Quy m sn xut v sn phm ca DA ..................................................................... 109
+ Cng ngh k thut.................................................................................................... 110
Cng ngh.................................................................................................................. 110 Thit b....................................................................................................................... 110
+ Quy m, gii php xy dng ..................................................................................... 110
Quy m ...................................................................................................................... 110
Gii php xy dng................................................................................................... 111
+ nh gi tc ng mi trng v gii php x l ..................................................... 111
- nh gi v phng din t chc, qun l thc hin DA ......................................... 112
- nh gi phng n ngun vn ................................................................................ 112
+ Tng vn u t ........................................................................................................ 112
Ni dung nh gi ..................................................................................................... 112
Cc phng php thm nh ..................................................................................... 113
S bo m cc ngun vn........................................................................................ 113
+ Mc ch c th v hng s dng vn u t ......................................................... 114
+ Nhu cu vn u t theo tin thc hin d n ...................................................... 114
Cc ni dung nh gi .............................................................................................. 114
Phng php nh gi cch b tr vn cho thi gian thi cng xy dng cng trnh 114
+ Hiu sut vn u t.................................................................................................. 115
Mc tiu hao vn .................................................................................................. 115
Mc hiu lc vn u t....................................................................................... 115
- nh gi hiu qu v mt ti chnh ........................................................................... 116
+ nh gi v tnh kh thi ca ngun vn, c cu vn u t..................................... 116+ nh gi v mt th trng, phng n v kh nng tiu th sn phm, dch v ca
d n.......................................................................................................................... 116
+ nh gi v kh nng cung cp nguyn, nhin vt liu v c tnh ca dy chuyn
cng ngh .................................................................................................................. 116
+ Xc nh nhu cu vn lu ng................................................................................. 116
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Xc nh trch nhim ti chnh ca chd n.......................................................... 116
- Phn tch ri ro d n ................................................................................................ 117
+ Ri ro v c ch chnh sch ....................................................................................... 117
+ Ri ro v vn hnh..................................................................................................... 117+ Ri ro v th trng ................................................................................................... 117
+ Ri ro v mi trng v x hi.................................................................................. 117
+ Ri ro t yu t kinh t v m ................................................................................... 117
(b) Tnh ton hiu qu ti chnh, kh nng tr n ca PASXKD / DAT ..................... 118
- Phn cho vay ngn hn .............................................................................................. 118
+ C s tnh ton .......................................................................................................... 118
+ Tin hnh ................................................................................................................... 118- Phn cho vay trung hn ............................................................................................. 119
+ Xc nh m hnh d n ............................................................................................ 119
+ Phn tch v c lng s liu tnh ton ................................................................... 119
C s xc nh ........................................................................................................... 119
Tin hnh ................................................................................................................... 119
+ Lp cc bng tnh Thu nhp v Chi ph ..................................................................... 120
S cn thit................................................................................................................ 120
Ni dung.................................................................................................................... 120
Cc bng tnh thu nhp v chi ph(Bng tnh trung gian) ........................................ 120
Bng 1 : Bng tnh sn lng v doanh thu ..................................................................... 120
Bng 2 : Bng tnh chi ph hot ng ............................................................................... 120
Bng 2.1 : Bng tnh chi ph nguyn vt liu ................................................................... 120
Bng 2.2 : Bng tnh cc chi ph qun l, bn hng ......................................................... 120
Bng 3 : Khu hao ............................................................................................................ 120
Bng 4.1 : Tnh ton li vay vn trung, di hn ............................................................... 120
Bng4.2 : Tnh ton li vay vn ngn hn....................................................................... 120
Bng 5 : Bng tnh nhu cu vn lu ng ........................................................................ 120
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Lp bo co kt qu kinh doanh, Bo co lu chuyn tin t v tnh ton kh nng tr
n ca DA.................................................................................................................. 121
Lp Bo co kt qu kinh doanh ............................................................................... 121
Bng 6 : Bo co kt qu kinh doanh ............................................................................... 121 Lp Bng cn i tr n............................................................................................ 121
Bng 7 : Bng cn i tr n............................................................................................ 121
Lp bng tnh im ho vn ...................................................................................... 121
Bng 8 : Bng tnh im ho vn ..................................................................................... 121
Lp Bo co lu chuyn tin t ................................................................................. 121
Bng 9 : Bo co lu chuyn tin t................................................................................. 122
Phn tch nhy ...................................................................................................... 122
Cc hm tnh ton ..................................................................................................... 122
+ Lp bo co cn i ................................................................................................... 122
Mc ch .................................................................................................................... 122
Nguyn tc lp........................................................................................................... 123
Bng 10 : Bng cn i k hoch .................................................................................... 123
f. Cc bin php kim sot (Ti thm nh) ........................................................................... 124
(1) Vic ti thm nh c thc hin theo hai phng php......................................... 124
(a) Gin tip .................................................................................................................... 124
(b) Trc tip .................................................................................................................... 124
(2) Vic ti thm nh c tin hnh c lp m khng c s tr gip t NVTD ....... 124
(3) Quan st, kho st, kim tra thc t tm hiu nhng tc ng bn ngoi nh hng
n qu trnh thc hin PA / DA ............................................................................... 124
(4) Thm nh li tan b h s vay vn, bo co thm nh, t trnh ca NVTD ........ 124
(5) Theo di kt qa thm nh h s vay ...................................................................... 125
3. SO SNH VIC THM NH GIA KHCH HNG C NHN V KHCH HNG
DOANH NGHIP ............................................................................................................... 126
1/ Thm nh t cch khch hng vay .................................................................................... 126
2/ nh gi nng lc php l, nng lc hnh vi dn s, nng lc iu hnh v qun l sn
xut, m hnh t chc, b tr lao ng ............................................................................... 126
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
3/ Thm nh nng lc ti chnh / sn xut kinh doanh ........................................................ 128
4/ Thm nh cc bin php bo m tin vay ....................................................................... 135
5/ Phn tch, thm nh phng n vay vn / d n u t v cc yu t tc ng ............ 135
6/ Cc bin php kim sot (Ti thm nh) ........................................................................... 142
IV.LP BO CO THM NH CHO VAY ....................................................................... 144
1. Thu thp thng tin............................................................................................................... 144
a. i vi khch hng c nhn ................................................................................................ 144
(1) Ghi nhn thng tin trc tip....................................................................................... 144
(2) Thu thp cc thng tin t ngun khc ....................................................................... 144
b. i vi khch hng doanh nghip ...................................................................................... 144
(1) Ghi nhn thng tin trc tip....................................................................................... 144
(2) Thu thp cc thng tin t ngun khc ....................................................................... 145
2. Cch vit v chun b t trnh ............................................................................................ 145
a. Yu cu chung...................................................................................................................... 145
(1) Vit theo m hnh phn tch ...................................................................................... 145
(2) Khng vit theo cch m t ....................................................................................... 145
(3) Phong cch vit ......................................................................................................... 146
(4) Nhng im lu cho t trnh c hiu qu h tr qu trnh ra quyt nh .......... 146
(5) T tng ca ngi vit t trnh ............................................................................... 147
b. Yu cu c th...................................................................................................................... 147
(1) Nguyn tc................................................................................................................. 147
(2) Ni dung t trnh ....................................................................................................... 148
(a) i vi khch hng c nhn ...................................................................................... 148
- Gii thiu khch hng ............................................................................................... 148- Gii thiu nhu cu ca khch hng ........................................................................... 148
- Tnh hnh quan h vi cc t chc tn dng .............................................................. 149
- Qu trnh thnh lp pht trin (ivi khch hng l doanh nghip t nhn) .......... 150
- Tnh hnh hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh hin ti (nu c hoc vay vn sn xut,
kinh doanh) ................................................................................................................ 150
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
- Phng n / d n vay vn / bo lnh ....................................................................... 151
- Ti sn bo m......................................................................................................... 152
- Thng tin ngnh......................................................................................................... 153
- Nhn xt .................................................................................................................... 153- Kin ngh ................................................................................................................... 153
(b) i vi khch hng doanh nghip ............................................................................. 155
- Gii thiu khch hng ............................................................................................... 155
- Gii thiu nhu cu ca khch hng ........................................................................... 156
- Tnh hnh quan h vi cc t chc tn dng .............................................................. 156
- Qu trnh thnh lp, pht trin ................................................................................... 158
- Tnh hnh hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh hin ti ................................................... 158- Phng n / d n vay vn / bo lnh ....................................................................... 159
- Ti sn bo m......................................................................................................... 160
- Kt qu chm im tn dng...................................................................................... 160
- Thng tin ngnh......................................................................................................... 160
- Nhn xt .................................................................................................................... 160
- Kin ngh ................................................................................................................... 161
3. Mu t trnh......................................................................................................................... 163
a. i vi khch hng c nhn ................................................................................................ 163
(1) T trnh thm nh khch hng vay vn ngn hn (V/v vay vn sn xut kinh doanh,
khch hng c nhn) : ................................................................................................ 163
(2) T trnh thm nh khch hng vay vn ngn hn (V/v vay vn mua nh / xy dng,
sa cha nh / mua xe / tiu dng / thanh ton chi ph du hc ..., khch hng l c
nhn) : ........................................................................................................................ 163
(3) T trnh thm nh khh hng vay vn trung, di hn (V/v vay vn sn xut kinhdoanh, khch hng l c nhn) : ................................................................................ 163
(4) T trnh thm nh khch hng vay vn trung, di hn (V/v vay vn xy dng nh,
khch hng l c nhn) : ............................................................................................ 163
(5) T trnh thm nh khch hng vay vn trung, di hn (V/v chuyn i t vay vng
vay VND, khch hng l c nhn) : ........................................................................... 163
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GIO TRNH TN DNGMC LC
14
Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
(6) T trnh thm nh khch hng (p dng cho khch hng c ngun thu nhp tr n
chnh t lng) : ........................................................................................................ 163
(7) T trnh thm nh khch hng (p dng cho khch hng c ngun thu nhp tr n
chnh t hot ng sn xut kinh doanh) : ................................................................ 163
b. i vi khch hng doanh nghip ...................................................................................... 163
(1) T trnh thm nh khch hng (V/v xt duyt cho vay mn ngn hn) : ................. 163
(2) T trnh thm nh khch hng (V/v xt duyt cho vay ngn hn trong hn mc tn
dng) :........................................................................................................................ 163
(3) T trnh thm nh khch hng (V/v ti tr trung, di hn cho d n) : ................... 163
V. CC PH LC ................................................................................................................... 164
PH LC 8A. GIAO TIP V LNG NH KHCH HNG QUA GIAO TIP ....... 165
PH LC 8B. NI DUNG KIM TRA TNH TRNG THC T CA TI SN BO
M ..................................................................................................................................... 175
PH LC 8C. CC PHNG PHP D TR S CU ................................................... 177
1/ Phng php ng thng s hc ....................................................................................... 177
2/ Phng php ng cong hnh hc ..................................................................................... 177
3/ Phng php ng thng thng k ................................................................................... 178
4/ Phng php ng bnh phng b nht (Least Square) ............................................... 178
5/ Phng php semi-log thng k ........................................................................................... 179
6/ Phng php parabol thng k............................................................................................ 179
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
NI DUNG CHI TIT
I. MC TIU CA MT KHON VAY
Qun l hot ng tn dng hay cn c nu ln theo mt gc cha ng mc tiu ca
hot ng tn dng, l Qun l ri ro tn dng. Qun l ri ro tn dng l mt qu trnhton din, khi s t vic tm kim th trng cho vay v tip theo sau l mt lot cc
quy trnh cho n khi khon tn dng c thanh ton hon ton.
Trong qu trnh , nhn vin tn dng phi a ra c cc phn tch v nh gi i vi
cc khon vay. Ni dung nh gi v phn tch phi nhm n s thong 3 mc tiu
chnh :
1. Ngi vay vn c ng tin cy khng ? v, Lm sao bit c ?
Cu hi ny cn c xem xt trc tin l khch hng c th thanh ton c khon vay
ng hn khng ? V tr li c cu hi ny, cn phi c tin hnh nghin cu 6 chitit ca mt h svay vn l : Tnh cch (Character), Nng lc (Capacity), sTn
nhim (Credibility), vicTh chp (Collateral), cc iu kin (Condition), v sKim
sot (Control) - (6 Cs credit analysis).
2. S an ton cho ngn hng v ngi gi tin, cng nh iu kin thun li cho ngi s
dng tin vay c bo v v cu trc nh th no trong hp ng tn dng ?
6 ch C trn c quan tm v phn tch, l nhm n vic tr li cu hi quan trng
Khch hng c ng tin cy khng ?. Khi ni dung cu hi c gii p, vn tip
theo l : Hp ng tn dng c c cu trc hon chnh nhm tho mn c yu cuca khch hng ngn hng khng ?
Mt hp ng tn dng hp l phi bo vc ngn hng v nhng ngi m ngn hng
i din (ngi gi tin v cc cng), hn ch nhng mi e do ti kh nng thu hi
vn ca ngn hng. Nhn vin tn dng phi tm c cu tr li chnh xc tho mn yu
cu ca tt c cc bn. u tin, i vi khch hng nhn vin tn dng phi phc tho
c mt hp ng tn dng p ng c nhu cu ca ngi vay vi mt k hoch hon
tr thch hp, xut pht t s thnh cng ca ngn hng v cbn ph thuc vo s thnh
cng ca khch hng.
3. Thm quyn ca ngn hng i vi ti sn v thu nhp ca khch hng nh th no ? v,
Kh nng thu hi vn ca ngn hng c c thc hin nhanh chng vi t ri ro v chi
ph thp khng ?
Vn cn phi c gii p tip theo l : Ngn hng c th hon thin quyn ca
mnh i vi ti sn bo m v thu nhp ca ngi vay khng ?.
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Vic th hin thm quyn ca ngn hng i vi ti sn ca khch hng nhm p ng hai
mc tiu : Th nht, nu khch hng khng c kh nng hon tr t ngun thu nhp ca h,
th ngn hng phi c c quyn thu gi v bn ti sn thu hi li khon tin cho
vay. Th hai, vic khon cho vay c bo m bng ti sn s to ra li th tm l cho
ngi cho vay v p lc tm l cho ngi vay, ngi vay s cm thy cn phi c nhiutch cc hn thanh ton khon nv trnh kh nng mt i nhng ti sn c gi tr hoc
chnh gi tr m nhng ti sn to ra.
Yu cu ca vic hon thin quyn ca ngn hng i vi ti sn th chp l nhm xc nh
r nhng ti sn m ngn hng c th phong to v bn, ng thi nhm thng bo cho cc
t chc khc bit rng ngn hng c quyn hp php trong vic pht mi ti sn nu khch
hng khng c kh nng hon tr khon vay. Ngn hng c c quyn u tin i vi ti
sn so vi cc ch nkhc v so vi ch nhn ca ti sn. Khi si hi ca ngn hng
i vi ti sn th chp c hon thin.
Bn cnh bin php th chp ti sn bo v s an ton s tin cho vay, hn ch ri ro
i vi khon vay cn phi : Xem xt thu nhp hay dng tin ca khch hng tr nmn
vay, Xem xt s lnh mnh trn bng cn i k ton ca khch hng nhm xc nh tnh
thanh khon ca cc ti sn bo m tng lng tin b li nhng thiu ht trong lung tin
ca khch hng, v cui cng l S bo m an ton t bn ngoi. Mc tiu ca s hon
thin quyn ca ngn hng i vi cc khon thu nhp l s rng buci vi khch
hng phi thc hin mt s yu cu nht nh, nh l : phi nh k np cc bo co ti
chnh cho ngn hng, phi mua bo him cho khon tin vay, phi bo m tnh thanh
khon v s hp php ca n; ng thi khch hng s khng c tin hnh mt s hotng no khi khng c s chp thun ca ngn hng, nh l : tin hnh vay mi, vay ni
khc, mua thn ti sn cnh, tham gia hot ng sp nhp, bn ti sn, tr c tc qu
mc cho cc cng ...
Cc mc tiu ca mt khon vay c xc nh, trong mc tiu nh gi S tin cy
ca khch hng l mc tiu quan trng v thit yu cn c quan tm :
II. 6 NGUYN TC THM NH KHCH HNG VAY
Khi nh gi khch hng cn phi c thc hin theo 2 gc :
- Theo nh tnh: l nhm hiu c mun hon tr ca ngi vay.
- Cn mc ch ca vic phn tch ti chnh ca khch hng l xem xt kh nng ca
khch hng v ngun vn ch s hu, ngun vn chim dng v vn vay, hng ho tn
kho, c cu ti sn lu ng v c nh n thi im hin ti, l phn tch theo nh
lng,
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
T c c kt lun v thc trng kh nng ca khch hng trong vic hon tr n vay
cho Ngn hng.
Bn cnh vic nh gi , qu trnh tip tc theo di v tc ng theo hng hin thc ha
cc gi tr c phn tch v thm nh s gp phn lm cho mc tiu ca mt khon vay
t kt qu. Vic tin hnh chi tit nh gi theo Nguyn tc 6 C s lm tho mn cc yucu i vi mt khon vay tt theo quan im ca ngi cho vay.
1. Thm nh t cch khch hng
Nhn vin tn dng phi c c bng chng cho thy khch hng c mc tiu r rng khi
n ngn hng ngh vay vn, v ng thi phi c k hoch tr n nghim tc :
- Nu khng bit chc chn mc tiu, l do khch hng vay vn, th nhn vin tn dng
cn phi tin hnh iu tra, xc minh cho n khi c cu tr li xc ng. Sau khi mc
tiu vay vn c lm r, nhn vin tn dng phi xem xt n s ph hp vi chnh
sch cho vay hin ti ca ngn hng c c s quyt nh tng thch tha ng.
- Mc d xc nh c mc tiu vay vn ca khc hng tt, nhng nhn vin tn dng
cng cn phi xc nh trch nhim ca khch hng trong vic s dng tin vay.
Trch nhim, tnh trung thc, mc ch vay vn nghim tc, k hoch tr n r rng l
nhng tiu chun to nn tnh cch ca khch hng trong nh gi ca nhn vin tn dng.
Nu khch hng khng trung thc trong cam kt s dng vn vay hay k hoch tr n th
khng thc hin cho vay hn l n tr thnh mt khon n kh i i vi ngn hng.
2. Thm nh nng lc khch hng
Nhn vin tn dng phi chc chn rng khch hng c nng lc hnh vi dn s, nng
lc php l trong vic k kt hp ng vay vn v s am hiu v iu hnh v sp xp
cng vic (nh tnh).
Hp ng tn dng do mt ngi khng c nng lc v khng c t cch php l kkt s dn n s khng thu hi c khon cho vay v s to ra mt tn tht ln i vingn hng.
3. Thm nh nng lc ti chnh / sn xut kinh doanh
y l ni dung quan trng i vi mt ngh vay vn m vn cn nh gi v phn
tch l : Kh nng ca khch hng p ng yu cu hon tr cho ngn hng mn vay
c xc nh cn c trn cc ngun lc thc s trong chnh hot ng ca h nh th no
(nh lng) ? Cu tr li chnh l c s xc nhn cho S Tn Nhim m ngn hng c
c quyt nh cho vic thc hin khon vay.
Nhn chung, khch hng vay vn ch c ba ngun c th hon tr khon vay :
- Dng tin t doanh thu bn hng hoc thu nhp;
- Dng tin t vic bn ti sn;
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
- Cc ngunvn huy ng bng cch pht hnh n hay chng khon vn.
Bt c ngun no trong ba ngun trn u c th c s dng p ng nhu cu bng
tin trong vic thanh ton n cho ngn hng. Nhng iu ngn hng c trng tm l dng
tin t doanh thu bn hng v xem y l ngun chnh thanh ton n vay, v nu c
ngun thu t vic bn cc ti sn c th s lm suy yu i nng lc kinh doanh ca khchhng v lm cho ngn hng s tr nn cc ch n khng c c s bo m chc chn.
Hu ht cc ngn hng u do d trong vic ti tr cho cc khch hng khng c trin
vng tt trong kinh doanh.
4. Thm nh ti sn bo m
Khi nh gi v ti sn th chp, cu hi t ra cho nhn vin tn dng cn c gii p
l : Ngi vay c s hu mt ti sn no vi tr gi tng xng vi khon vay
khng ?
S nhy cm trong nhn thc i vi nhn vin tn dng i vi cc vn nh sau l cnthit khi nh gi ti sn th chp :
- Thi gian s dng.
- Tnh kh mi ca ti sn c th chp.
5. Thm nh phng n / d n v cc yu t tc ng
Vic phn tch ni dung iu Kin, l phi nhn bit c nhng xu hng tin trin
cn k ca khch hng cng nh ca lnh vc m khch hng ang hot ng, thy c
mc tc ng ca nhng thay i trong nn kinh t i vi khon cho vay.
Mt khon cho vay c th rt tt trn giy t, c th nh bi gii cho mt p n hn l s
suy xt v nh gi kinh t, nhng c th gi tr ca n s b st gim khi doanh thu hay
thu nhp d dng b nhiu tc ng t s bin ng kinh t hoc sc p ca bin ng gi
c, lm pht
6. Cc bin php kim sot
Kim sot l qu trnh nh gi li tnh khch quan v hp l ca tt c cc gi tr tnh
ton v c s kinh t khi xem xt cho vay, ng thi nh gi s tc ng ca thi gian v
thay i cc c ch, chnh sch ca cc c quan qun l c gy ra nhng bt li no cho
ngi vay v kh nng p ng ca khch hng trong nhng trng hp .
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
III. VN DUNG 6 NGUYN TC VO VIC THM NH KHCH HNG VAY
1. KHCH HNG C NHN
a. Thm nh t cch khch hng
Mc tiu thm nh v t cch khch hng hn ch n mc thp nht cc ri ro chquan ca khch hng gy nn nh : ri ro v o c, thiu nng lc trnh , thiukinh nghim kinh doanh, kh nng thch ng vi th trng cha nhy bn. phngpht hin ngay t ban u nhng khch hng xu li dng v cn ch nhng khchhng vay vn cha c o to qua cc trng lp. Khi quan h vay vn, khch hngc nhng li bng gi v li ch, gip c nhn, thn trng vi nhng ch doanhnghip sp ngh hu, nhng ngi hay ru ch, c bc
- Nm cc thng tin cbn v khch hng nh : h, tn, tui, a ch lin lc, s in
thoi, vic lm ...
- Khch hng vay vn c c tr ti a bn qun (huyn), th x, thnh ph ni ngn
hng cho vay (NHCV) ng tr s? Nu khng, phi trnh by r nguyn nhn.
- c vay vn t cc ngn hng khc khng ? V vic vay vn v tr n i vi
cc ngn hng c sng phng, khng c n qu hn ?
- Quan st thi , phng php v ni dung tr li ca khch hng, pht hin nhng
mu thun v cc vn khng nht qun, hoc khng trung thc gia h s vay
vn v ni dung tr li phng vn.
- Yu cu cn phi gii p c cc im cha r trong h s php l, phng n
KD, ngun tr n ngn hng.
Tham kho Ph Lc s 8A. : GIAO TIP V LNG NH KHCH HNG QUA
GIAO TIP.(XemPh Lc 8A)
b. nh gi nng lc php l, nng lc hnh vi dn s, nng lc iu hnh v qun l
sn xut kinh doanh, m hnh t chc, b tr lao ng
Ni dung tm hiu v phn tch v khch hng c xc nh trn 3 mc tiu c bn
nh sau :
(1) Xc nh nng lc php lut, nng lc hnh vi dn s :
Nhng ni dung nh sau cn phi lm r :
- Khch hng vay vn nu l h gia nh, c phi l ch h hoc l ngi i din
hp php ca h v 18 tui khng ? (iu 106 v iu 107 B Lut Dn S).
- Khch hng vay vn l T hp tc c hot ng theo iu 111 B Lut Dn S
khng?
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
- Khch hng vay vn c nng lc php lut dn s v nng lc hnh vi dn s
khng? (iu 14 n iu 23 B Lut Dn S).
- Giy php hnh ngh c cn hiu lc trong thi hn cho vay, c th ko di hoc
gia hn trong trng hp nvay b gia hn khng ?
- Khch hng vay vn l doanh nghip t nhn, ch doanh nghip c hnh vi
nng lc dn s, nng lc php lut dn s v hot ng theo Lut Doanh Nghip ?
(2) M hnh t chc, b tr lao ng ca khch hng vay (i vi khch hng vay
vn phc v sn xut kinh doanh) :
nh gi trn c s lm r cc ni dung nh sau :
- Quy m hot ng ?
- C cu t chc hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh ?
- S lng, trnh lao ng ?
- Ccu lao ng trc tip, gin tip ?
- Tui trung bnh ca ngi lao ng ?
- Thi gian lm vic ?
- Mc thu nhp bnh qun, mc thu nhp khi im ca ngi lao ng ?
- Nhng thay i ca mc thu nhp bnh qun, cc chnh sch thng ?
- Hiu qu sn xut : Doanh s bnh qun trn u ngi, mc tng trng ?- Trnh k thut ca thchuyn mn ?
(3) Kh nng qun tr :
Nhng vn sau cn c lm r :
- Thng tin v c nhn, ch h, ban qun l T hp tc;
- Trnh chuyn mn;
- Kh nng, kinh nghim, cch thc qun l, o c c nhn, ch h, ban qun l
T hp tc.
- Nhng kt qut c :
+ T l tng trng doanh thu;
+ T l tng li nhun;
+ T l gim chi ph;
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Tc tng thu nhp.
- Kh nng qun l cc khon nca khch hng;
- Uy tn ca c nhn, ch h, ban qun l T hp tc;
- Kh nng tm hiu v thch ng vi th trng, bin ng v tnh hnh kinh t vcc xu hng ca lnh vc hot ng ?
- Cc quan h v s hp tc gia cc c nhn trong ban qun l;
- Ngi thc s ra quyt nh trong T hp tc ? v s tp trung quyn quyt nh ?
- C s thay i v ngi qun l v cch thc qun l ?
- Kh nng quyt nh ca ban qun l trong lnh vc ti chnh, k ton ?
c. Thm nh nng lc ti chnh / sn xut kinh doanh
Vic phn tch nh gi kh nng ti chnh ca khch hng nhm n 3 mc tiu chnhnh sau :
- Kim tra tnh chnh xc ca cc bo co ti chnh, bo co kt qu sn xut -kinhdoanh;
- Phn tch, nh gi tnh hnh hot ng v kh nng ti chnh;
- Kim tra mc p ng mt s iu kin v ti chnh.
i vo chi tit thm nh :
(1) Kim tra tnh chnh xc ca bo co kt qu sn xut kinh doanh :
(p dngi vi khch hng vay vn phc v nhu cu sn xut, kinh doanh)
Bn mu kim tra tnh chnh xc ca bo co kt qu sn xut kinh doanh nh sau, cn
lu : i vi nhng cu hi khng tr li c C hay KHNG, th nh du
vo ct THNG TIN BSUNG, sau ghi chi tit vo phn di ca bn ny v
tng hp vo bo co thm nh khch hng :
Kim tra bo co kt qu sn xut kinh doanh
Tr liC
Tr liKHNG
THNG TINB SUNG
Trong cc khon phi thu c / khng khon cho vaykhng th thu hi ?
Hng tn kho c nh gi chnh xc ?
Trong hng tn kho c bao gm hng h hng, kmphm cht, khng s dng ?
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22
Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Kim tra chi tit cc khon vay / trch nhim n ?
Kim tra cc khon thanh ton, khon thu chx l cgi tr ln ?
Kim tra chi tit ti sn cnh, ch nhng ti sn
cnh c gi tr ln ?Vic mua my mc, thit b c c thanh ton ?
Trong khon ng trc c nhng khon c nhnhay khon t cc c thu ?
Nhng khon ng trc nu trn c bao gm nhngkhon vay ngn hng ?
Cc chi ph tr trc, chi ph trch trc c c hchton ?
C phn loi chi tit v chnh xc cc khon thu bnhng, chi ph mua hng, chi ph bn hng, chi ph hnhchnh, cc khon thu nhp v chi ph khc ngoi hotng kinh doanh chnh ?
Kim tra chi tit cc khon thu nhp, chi ph ngoihot ng kinh doanh chnh ?
Kim tra chi tit nhng khon thu nhp, khon l btthng, lu nhng khon pht sinh ln ?
C trng hp l do bn ti sn cnh ?
L do bn ti sn c nh c c php khng ?
(2) Phn tch nh gi tnh hnh hot ng v kh nng ti chnh :
(a)i vi cc khch hng vay vn sn xut kinh doanh:Nhng thng tin cn thu thp :
+ Sn phm ch yu;
+ Th phn ca tng loi sn phm;
+ Mng li phn phi sn phm;
+ Kh nng cnh tranh;+ Cc i th cnh tranh ch yu;
+ S tn nhim ca cc bn hng;
+ Chin lc kinh doanh trong tng lai;
+ Chnh sch khch hng;
+ Khch hng c nh hng n hot ng sn xut, kinh doanh.
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
- Tnh hnh sn xut
+ Cc iu kin vsn xut :
Nhng thay i v kh nng sn xut v t l s dng thit b;
Cc loi sn phm;
Nhng thay i n t hng;
S lng v phn trm gi tr sn phm cha thc hin c;
T l ph phm v s thay i (+/-);
Nguyn vt liu chnh : Cc loi, tnh hnh cung cp, s dng, s thay i gi
mua, tnh hnh cc nh cung cp, cht lng;
+ Kt qu sn xut :
Thnh phm : thay i ni dung, thnh phn, t l cc loi thnh phm;
Cc yu tnh hng n s thay i nu trn : tng / gim cu, tn kho, thay
i gi c, nng sut, ...;
+ Phng php sn xut hin thi :
Phng php sn xut hin thi : m t v xc nh tnh hin i;
Kh nng v iu kin ci tin phng php sn xut hin thi.
+ Cng sut :
Cng sut thc t;
Cng sut thit k;
Cc yu t lm nh hng n cng sut thc t so vi cng sut thit k.
+ Hiu qu : Cc kt qu v tc ng lm thay i v chi ph sn xut, thi gian lao
ng v kt qut c.
+ Cht lng sn phm :
t c tiu chun no theo yu cu ca ngi mua; Kh nng no pht sinh lm nh hng n cht lng sn phm, l do ?
+ Chi ph : Cc thay i v chi ph sn xut v so snh vi cc i th cnh tranh.
- Tnh hnh bn hng
+ Nhng thay i vdoanh thu :
S lng v gi tr doanh thu theo tng loi sn phm;
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Doanh thu (s lng v gi tr) theo tng loi khch hng v loi sn phm;
Xc nh cc tc ng n s thay i : tng/gim nhu cu, trnh sn xut,
cht lng sn phm, s cnh tranh v i th cnh tranh, ... .
+ Phng php tchc bn hng v mng li bn hng : Phng thc t chc bn hng;
Doanh thu bn hng t phng thc t chc bn hng (nu trn), to ra doanh
thu trc tip hay gin tip;
Cc hnh thc i l : ti cc a phng, bn l, bn s, ... ;
S v t chc mng li bn hng.
+ Khch hng :
Tnh hnh v kh nng thanh ton tin mua hng ca cc khch hng chnh;
S lng cc giao dch v sn phm ca doanh nghip vi cc khch hng
chnh;
nh gi ca khch hng v sn phm ca doanh nghip;
Chnh sch khuch trng, qung b sn phm tng doanh s bn, hoc khi
c sn phm mi.
+ Gi bn:
Nhng thay i gi bn v phng php tnh gi;
Quan h vi khch hng v cc nhn t lm nh hng n quan h khch
hng;
Tnh hnh gim gi (k ci vi cc yu t : hoa hng, ph vn chuyn, chit
khu, li sut,..., cc chi ph lu thng).
+ Qun l chi ph :
Cc bin ng v tng chi ph v cc yu tnh hng n sn phm.
+ Phng thc thanh ton :
i vi ngi bn, i vi ngi mua thc hin phng thc thanh ton tr
ngay hay tr chm, cc cch thc chit khu.
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Slngn t hng :
Nhng thay i vn t hng, v s lng n t hng theo tng loi sn
phm v ca tng khch hng chnh. Cc nhn t tc ng n s thay i n
t hng;
Cc iu kin ca n t hng : n gi, thi gian giao hng, phng thc
giao nhn.
+ Qun l tn kho :
Nhng thay i v s lng v chng loi hng tn kho;
Phng thc qun l hng tn kho.
+ Tnh hnh xut khu :
Nhng thay i v nguyn nhn ca s thay i s lng hng xut khu theo
tng loi sn phm, i vi tng quc gia, khu vc.
T l xut khu trn tng doanh thu;
Phng thc xut khu : trc tip hay u thc, quan h ca xut u thc;
Thay i v gi hng xut v so snh vi gi sn phm cng loi trong nc;
Phng php, iu kin thanh ton, cc sh trt chnh ph, cnh tranh quc
t, chi ph thu quan ca cc nc nhp, chnh sch xut khu v cc d bo.
+ Quan hi tc kinh doanh : Cc quan h trong vic mua v bn sn phm, cc
quan hi tc vn, kh nng to lp v mc ch ca cc quan h.(b)Tm hiu v phn tch v ti chnh khch hng:
(p dngi vi cc khch hng vay vn cho nhu cu sinh hot v cc khch hng
vay vn phc v nhu cu sn xut, kinh doanh)
Mc tiu chnh yu ca vic tm hiu v phn tch v ti chnh khch hng l nh
gi kh nng bo m tr nca khch hng trong thi hn cam kt. Nhng thng tin
sau y cn c xc minh t c mc tiu trn :
- Ngun thu nhp ch yu ca khch hng ? Cs, chng t chng minh ngun gc
ca cc thu nhp ?Th d nh :
+ Ngun thu nhp t lng : Cn xc nhn ca cquan ni khch hng lm vic;
+ Tin cho thu nh, phng tin, thit b : Hp ng cho thu;
+ Tin gi v li tin ngn hng : S tit kim, bo co s d tin gi, ... ;
+ C tc t c phiu chng khon u t : chng t chng minh;
+ V.v...
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Cn xem xt tnh n nh v tnh thi gian ca cc khon thu nhp .
- Khch hng sinh sng bng ngh g ? Chnh, ph ? Ngh c mang li ngun thu
nhp n nh khng ?
- Khch hng s dng cc ngun thu nhp nh th no ? Cn phi kim tra v cnh vic s dng thu nhp ca khch hng, c bit khi c nhng bin ng ln
lm nh hng n thu nhp v chi tiu s chi phi n khon tin dnh d nh
tr nngn hng khi c vay vn.
- S thnh vin trong gia nh, trong h khu ? cc thnh vin c thc s quan tm
n khon vay ny khng ? L do ? Cc thnh vin c ngun thu nhp n nh
hay ph thuc vo ngi vay tin ?
- n thi im t quan h vi ACB, h c vay hoc cn nvay vi ngn hng
khc khng ? Nu c th l do khng tip tc vay vn hoc quan h vi ngn hng
? Nu khng th l do no li xin vay vn vi ACB ?
- Khch hng c th dng bao nhiu thu nhp cnh tr nnu c vay vn ?
- Trong trng hp u t vo mt phng n sn xut hoc d n u t, th khch
hng c bao nhiu vn gp ? Cn i chiu vi quy nh v ttrng vn t c tham
gia vo phng n sn xut, d n u t ca ACB;
(3) nh gi mc p ng mt s iu kin v ti chnh
Bng nh gi chi tit nh sau :
1. S ph hp ca k hoch kinh doanh i vi khch hng vay vn ? Tr li
C
Tr li
KHNG
THNG TIN
B SUNG
a. Khch hng c phi l nhng ngi ph hp vicng vic kinh doanh ?+ C th t ring mnhbt u v vn hnh cng vickinh doanh ?+ Tin hnh kinh doanh v nhng l do hp l ?+ C nhng d tnh sn trong cng vic kinh doanh ?
+ C kinh nghim trong lnh vc kinh doanh ny ?+ C kinh nghim qun l ?+ C k nng, k thutcn thit ?b. Khch hng c kh nng bt u cng vickinh doanh ?+ Kh nng ti chnh c bt u ?+ chun b bo co v tnh hnh ti sn v cckhon n ?
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ C ti chnh trang tri cc chi ph pht sinhcho n khi c li ?+ C a vn vo kinh doanh ?+ C nhng bo m g cho khon vay ?
2. K hoch kinh doanh ca khch hng vay vn ?+ Bn sn phm hoc cung ng dch v g ?
+ Ngnh kinh doanh d nh thc hin ?
+ C thong tin g v ngnh kinh doanh d kin ?
Nhng xu hng hin nay ca ngnh ny ?
Tng lai lu di ca ngnh ny ?
Doanh s bn ra bnh qun ?
Mc li gp ?
Nh cung cp c iu kin g bn chu ?
Khch hng mua cn c cc iu kin g ?
Tn v a ch cc nh cung cp ?
Nhng dch v mi cho t cc hip hi kinhdoanh?
Tnh hnh cnh tranh trn th trng ?
c nh gi tr thc ca csSXKD cakhch hng ?
+ Quy m ca cng vic kinh doanh ?+ Phm vi th trng (ni a/xut khu) khi bt ukinh doanh ?
3. Nghin cu v xc tin th trng ?+ Thi trng c xc nh theo :
Quy m ?
V tr a l ?
Vng i sn phm ?
nh tnh ca th trng : Tui tc, gii tnh, thunhp v thi quen ca th trng ?
+ C s hnh thnh gi bn ?
Gi ca i th cnh tranh ?
Csga ph thc t ?
+ Sn phm c ng gi theo phng thc v loig ?
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ Nhn din c khch hng tim nng theo tiuthc :
Mua g ?
Mua u ?
Khch hng mong chloi dch v no : trchay sau khi bn hng ?
L do mua hng ?
C mua hng thng xuyn khng ?
+ i th cnh tranh l ai ?
+ Nhng sn phm no c bn ra tt hn hay c skhc bit vi cc i th cnh tranh ?+ Nhng thun li trong cnh tranh ?
+ Nhng bt li trong cnh tranh ?
+ Nhng bt li trn c vt qua nh th no ?
+ Nhng nh hng n th phn ?
+ X l nh th no i vi cc trng hp :
C phn ng ca khch hng;
C cc phn ng t cng vic xc tin bn hng.
+ Hnh thc xc tin thng mi no ph hp vi loihnh kinh doanh ca khch hng :
Tip th trc tip;
Xc tin bn hng; Tp ch v n phm thng mi;
Phng tin truyn hnh v truyn thanh;
Bo ch;
Ti tr.
+ Nhng chi ph qung co nu trn l bao nhiu ?
+ Khch hng bit c mc bn hng ha vn ?
4. K hoch ho ti chnh ?+ C bit c cn bao nhiu vn bt u ? v :
Nh xng v thit b ?
Cc my mc v cng c ?
Cc dng c dng trong kinh doanh ?
Chi ph lut php ?
Phng tin vn ti ?
S lng nguyn vt liu ban u ?
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
S lng tn kho nguyn vt liu ti thiu, tia, bnh qun ?
S lng tn kho thnh phm : ti thiu, ti av bnh qun p ng nhu cu bn ra ?
Chi ph thu ngoi ban u ? Cng nban u ?
Chi ph in v chi ph cho cc tin ch khc ?+ Chi ph hng thng ?
Nguyn vt liu ?
Tin cng ?
Cc nh cung cp ph ?
Qung co ph ?
Chi ph ngn hng ?
Chi ph in, nc, nng lng ?
Bo him ph ?
Chi ph thu ngoi ?
Chi ph vn chuyn ?
Chi ph bo dng ?
Chi ph bu phm v vn phng phm ?
in thoi, fax ?
Chi ph thu mua ?
Chi ph li vay ?
Nhu cu c nhn ?+ Sau khi vay bao lu c c li nhun ?
1 thng
3 thng
12 thng
Hn 12 thng+ Nhu cu vn ban u tin hnh kinh doanh chon khi c li ?+ Bng dng tin n gin cho 12 thng u tin+ B sung nhu cu bng tin thiu ht
+ Nhng ngun vn d kin s dng : Vay ngn hng
Lin doanh
Vn ring
T cc nh u t
T cc cng ty ti chnh (thu mua)+ K hoch kinh doanh c em li li nhun tngxng v hp l so vi s tin dnh u t ?
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
+ C th hon tr cc khon nvay ?+ K hoch c cn kh thi khi :
Doanh thu gim 10% so vi don ?
Chi ph tng 10% do mt gi n tin ?
Mc sn xut gim trn 5% ? Li sut vay d kin tng 5%/nm ?
+ Khch hng c am hiu :
Bo co thu nhpchi ph d tnh ?
Dng tin d tnh ?
5. S sch ti chnh ?+ Khch hng c bit cc loi s sch ti chnh ?+ C bit cch s dng v gi gn s sch ti chnh ?+ C bit lp bo co lu chuyn tin t ?+ C th lp k hoch chi tiu ?+ C th lm ph hp s liu ca h v s liu cangn hng xc nh li ?+ C th tnh t l sn phm trn gi?+ C th tnh ton chi ph nguyn vt liu ?+ Cch phn b chi ph qun l phn xng ?+ C th tnh ton c sn lng ti thiu b p chiph kinh doanh ?
i vi nhng cu hi, vn khng th ghi C hoc KHNG, cn nh du vo
THNG TIN B SUNG v thuyt minh, gii thch r cc chi tit vo phn cui bng tng hp vo bo co thm nh khch hng.
Lu rng :
- Khi Tm hiu v phn tch kh nng ti chnh v nh gi mc p ng mt
s iu kin v ti chnh ca khch hng, cn ch n Phng php lp Bo co
Lu chuyn tin t c qui nh ti Thng t s 105/2003/TT-BTC ngy
4/11/2003 Hng dn k ton thc hin su (06) chun mc k ton ban hnh theo
Quyt nh s 165/2002/Q-BTC ngy 31/12/2002 ca B Trng B Ti Chnh.
- i vi khch hng c nhn vic nh gi hin trng Lu chuyn tin t ch thc
hin i vi cc Doanh nghip thc hin theo ch bo co k ton do B Ti
chnh ban hnh.
d. Thm nh cc bin php bo m tin vay
Bo m tin vay l vic khch hng vay vn ca ACB dng cc loi ti sn ca mnh
hoc bn th ba cm c, th chp, bo lnh nhm bo m thc hin ngha v i
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.dochttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/VAN%20BAN/Phaply-NN/TTU%20105%20(4.11.2003)%20HUONG%20DAN%20THUC%20HIEN%206%20CHUAN%20MUC%20KE%20TOAN.doc7/29/2019 Phan Viii Tham Dinh Khach Hang Vay
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
vi ACB. Ti sn bo m l cs xc lp trch nhim ngi vay; gim thp ri ro
tn dng, mc d y khng phi l iu kin duy nht quyt nh cho vay; khng
xem l phng tin duy nht m bo an ton vay vn. Khi nhn ti sn cm c, th
chp,bo lnhNVTD c trch nhim thc hin cc nhim v sau y :
(1) Kim tra tnh trng thc t ca ti sn bo m tin vay
Vic kim tra tnh trng thc t ca Ti sn Bo m (TSB) tin vay c thc
hin theo :
Ph Lc s 8B. NI DUNG KIM TRA TNH TRNG THC T CA TI SN
BO M .(Xem Ph Lc 8B.)
(2) Phn tch, thm nh ti sn bo m tin vay:
Chi tit ni dung Phn tch, thm nh ti sn bo m tin vay xem Phn IV. Bo
m Tin Vay - Thm nh Ti Sn Bo m Tin Vay. Lu nhng ni dung sauy :
- Cc giy tchng minh quyn shu ti sn, giy chng nhn quyn s dng tv bn gc cc loi giy tkhc c lin quan n quyn shu ca khch hng vayc ACB lu gi cho n khi khch hng tr ht nv li tin vay;
- Thc hin ng cc qui nh v mua bo him do ACB ban hnh;
- Ti sn bo m tin vay c th do ACB gi, v c th giao cho ngi vay ginhng phi c sng ca ACB v chu s kim tra v gim st ca ACB;
ACB c nhng chnh sch u tin i vi mt s khch hng v loi khch hng
c vay vn khng phi c ti sn bo m.
e. Phn tch, thm nh phng n vay vn / d n u t v cc yu t tc ng
Vic phn tch, thm nh phng n vay vn / d n u t nhm t n 4 mc tiuchnh sau y :
- a ra kt lun v tnh kh thi, hiu qu v mt ti chnh ca Phng n sn
xut-kinh doanh / D n u t, kh nng hon tri v nhng ri ro c th
xy ra quyt nh cho vay hoc t chi cho vay;- Gp , t vn cho khch hng, bo m hiu qu s dng vn, thu c n
vay, hn ch v phng nga ri ro;- Xc nh s tin cho vay, thi gian cho vay, tin gii ngn, mc thu n, cc
iu kin thc hin khon vay; tc ng n hot ng ca khch hng c
hiu qu, bo m mc tiu u t ca ACB;
- nh gi kh nng tin lng ca khch hng vay vn.
Ni dung chi tit cc cng vic nh sau :
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Hng dn phn tch thm nh PA / DA:
Vic phn tch v thm nh PA / DA c tin hnh theo cc bc nh sau :
(a)nh gi chung v PA /DA:Cc ni dung chi tit sau y cn c gii trnh chi tit :
- nh gi mc tiu ca PA / DA :
+ Mc tiu ca PA / DA nhm t n ni dung g ?
+ S cn thit ca PA / DA ?
+ Mc ph hp ca PA / DA :
PA / DA c c quyt nh u t ph hp, s c nhiu kh nng t n hiu qu
kinh t mong mun v gim thiu c s ri ro t s bin ng, thay i cc iu
kin kinh t v chnh sch. c thm nh qua ba yu t sau : Mc ph hp xu th pht trin :
Cc mc tiu ca PA / DA c thm nh v nh gi ph hp vi yu cu ca
tng giai on pht trin, xu th pht trin ca t nc hoc s nh hng t
bn ngoi c Chnh ph a vo ng li pht trin chung.
Mc ph hp vi mc tiu pht trin ca ngnh, vng, a phng : PA /
DA c thm nh v nh giqua hai vn then cht sau :
S p ng vi phng thc t tn km nht cho nhng nhu cu u tin ca
ngnh kinh t, vng v a phng ?
Quy m ca PA / DA :
S ph hp vi nhu cu ca ngnh, vng, a phng ?
Snh gi v tim nng pht trin ca ngnh, vng, a phng ?
p ng nhu cu th trng ca ngnh, vng, a phng ?
Tc ng n gi c sn phm cng loi ca ngnh, vng, a phng ?
Mc ph hp vi thi c u t: PA / DA c xy dng ph hp vi xu
th pht trin l sng n v thun li; Nhng hiu qu thit thc t n
cn ch trng n hai ni dung :
Nu u t qu sm so vi nhu cu : S khng t n mc thu nhp hiu qu
vo nhng nm u, s lng ph c th khng trnh khi.
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Nu u t qu tr : Hiu qu t n gi tr cao trong mt vi nm u,
nhng s gim st nhanh.
+ Tc ng v mt x hi :
Khng th tch ri mt hot ng kinh t, hot ng u t ca PA / DA ra khis tc ng ca n i vi x hi hay i vi nn kinh t. S tc ng ny nu
mang li nhiu hiu qu thit thc s khng nh s tn ti v bn vng v gim
thiu nhiu ri ro cho PA / DA. c thm nh vo hai yu t chnh :
Li ch i vi nn kinh t: Lng nh qua cc ng gp c th sau :
ng gp vo ngn sch
Thng qua cc khon npcho ngn sch nh nc hng nm, nh : thu gitr gia tng, thu thu nhp doanh nghip, cc khon np khc. nh gi qua
t l :
PA / DA c nhiu hiu qu hn khi c t l, kh nng p gp vo ngn schnh nc nhiu hn.
S pht trin dy chuyn :
Nh vo vic hnh thnh PA / DA s mang li s pht trin hoc thnh lp micc ngnh sn xut, dch v khc. Ch :
Nhng ngnh c cung cp nguyn, nhin vt liu cho PA / DA;
Nhng ngnh s dng sn phm, dch v, tin ch ca PA / DA.
Tc ngn spht trin a phng:
Mc s dng ti nguyn sn c ti a phng;
Mc huy ng vn ti a phng cho nhu cu u t; Li ch v gi c, sn phm cung ng, tng thu nhp, to cng n vic lm, ...
cho a phng;
Thc y cc ngnh ngh ti a phng pht trin...
Tng cc khon np ngn sch
Vn u t
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
To ra ngun ngoi t
Th hin vic tit kim hay to ra ngun thu ngoi t, tnh ton t l :
X =
X > 1 : PA / DA c kh nng tit kim hoc thu c ngoi t.
X < 1 : PA / DA khng c kh nng tit kim hocthu c ngoi t.
X 1,25 : PA / DA hi tiu chun v phng din tit kim ngoi t.
Thu ht ngun lao ng:
Vic thu dng nhn cng ca PA / DA c nh gi qua 2 tiu chun :
Tng s lao ng c PA / DA thu dng;
Chi ph u t cho mi vic lm c PA / DA to ra :
So snh vi nhng PA / DA trong cng ngnh, nh gi chi ph u t cho
mi vic lm c to ra, PA / DA c chi ph ny thp l c hiu qu v kh
thi hn. T l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n :
Cch tnh ton t l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n
Lp bng li l x hi : Li l x hi l mc li ca PA / DA mang li cho xhi hay ng gp ca PA / DA chnh l tr gi m x hi l ra phi tr cho
mt sn phm, nu nh sn phm phi nhp khu. Do vy, li l x hi ca
d n chnh l sai bit gia Doanh thu X hi (Gi tr nhp khu) v Chi ph
X hi sn xut ra cng mt s lng sn phm.
Cng thc tnh : Li/L x hi = Doanh thu x hi Chi ph x hi
Trong :
S ngoi t tit kim / thu c
S ngoi t chi ra
Tng mc vn u t ca PA / DA
S lao ng thu dng
Doanh thux hi
S lngsn phm cad n c
tiu th
Gi sn phmtng t
nhp khu= x
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Chi ph x hi = Chi ph sn xut ca d n - Thu - Khu hao
Tnh mc sinh li x hi : p dng phng php tnh hin gi qui hi trgi li x hi v vn u t v cng mt thi im gc so snh. Thi im
gc thng l thi im vn u t c b ra ln u tin.
T l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n c nh ngha nh l li sut lm
cho hin gi ca li x hi v vn u t bng nhau cng mt thi im.
Cng thc tnh :
Trong :
V : Vn u t.R1, R2,..., Rn : Li x hi thu hi vo nm sn xut th nht, hai, ..., th n
ca d n.
n : S nm khai thc d n.
r : T l sinh li kinh t hay x hi ca d n.
Lu : Cch tnh r nh tnh IRR xem phn tnh sut thu hi ni b.
Cch thm nh t l sinh likinh t hay x hi ca d n :PA / DA c t l
sinh li x hi cao hn l c hiu qu v kh thi hn.- nh gi v nhu cu sn phm ca PA / DA:
+ Ni dung cn kho st :
Tnh hnh nhu cu sn phm v dch v trn th trng ?
Nhng m t v sn phm : hnh dng, dng thc ng gi, mu sc v.v ?
c im v nhu cu sn phm v dch v ?
Tnh hnh sn xut v tiu th sn phm, tnh hnh cung ng v tip nhn cc
dch v n thi im thm nh ?
Nhu cu hin ti v sn phm v dch v ca PA/DA ?
Nhu cu tng lai v sn phm v dch v ca PA/DA ?
Mc tiu th trong nc tng trng hng nm, kh nng p ng chung t th
trng v ca PA/DA ?
+ + +V =R1
(1+r)1
R2
(1+r)2
Rn
(1+r)n
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Kh nng (%) v sn phm v dch v ca PA/DA b thay th bi cc sn phm
khc cng loi ?
Cn phn loi s cu d tr theo :
Loi th trng : trong nc hay xt khu; Th trng tng min, vng; nh : Min Trung, Min Ty, vng Ty Nguyn;
Phn loi ngi tiu dng : thanh nin, ngi ln, n ng, ph n, tr em, th
dn, nng dn,...;
Trnh t chc cng vic v khun kh thc hin sn xut kinh doanh.
+ Yu cu ca vic nh gi v nhu cu sn phm :
Tnh cht cn thit v cp bch ca vic thc hin PA / DA l c o lng v
quyt nh bi nhu cu ca x hi, nhng cn cn phi p ng i vi cc loisn phm m PA / DA d nh sn xut. Nu nhu cu cn p ng cng ln, vic
thc hin PA / DA cng cn thit v cp bch. Khi nh gi nhu cu cn p ng,
cn cn phi so snh vi kh nng sn xut ca PA / DA khi hot ng bnh
thng, v kh nng sn xut v pht trin sn xut chung ca cc doanh nghip
khc i vi sn phm cng loi vi sn phm ca PA / DA v cc sn phm khc
tng ng c th thay th.
S lng sn phm m PA / DA mong mun bn c tu thuc vo tng cu
c d kin trong tng lai i vi sn phm . Trc khi chp thun hay bc
b s cu c PA / DA c lng, cn phi nh gi cc vn :
Gi tr ca cc phng php d tr v cc cn c dng d tr :
c lng s cu trong tng lai, c th cn c vo mt s d liu khc
nhau nh : dn s, din tch, s khch hng, s xe c, ... v s dng mt s k
thut tnh ton d tr khc nhau nh trnh by trn. Mi phng php u c
nhng cn c d tr khc nhau v kt qu cng khng ging nhau. Cc nh u
t thng chn mt phng php thch hp vi h, thuyt phc ngn hng
chp thun b vn u t. Do , ngn hng phi xem xt phng php no l
thch hp nht v nu cn c th ngh mt phng php d tr khc thchhp hn.
Khi quyt nh chn phng php cn xem xt :
Din bin s cu trong qu kh;
Kh nng tng trng nhu cu s dng sn phm, dch v ;
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
Bn cht s cu ca sn phm, dch v ; S liu v s cu trong qu kh t
ra thiu st, cha ng tin cy, khng c trng cho i tng s dng sn
phm;
Phng php d tr c khuyt im v cha tng thch.
Kt qu c p dng theo :
Tham kho Ph Lc 8C CC PHNG PHP D TR S CU.
(Xem Ph lc 8C)
Nu s cu qu kh tng hng nm tng i u n, nn chnPhng php
thng s hc.
Nu s cu giai tng trong qu kh theo mt t l bch phn tng i n
nh, hoc Nu s cu t b nh hng bi vic thay i li tc, chng hn s
cu v cc sn phm tiu dng hng ngy (go, thuc ty,...) nn chnPhng
php ng cong hnh hc.
Cc trng hp khc nn s dng phng php phn tch thng k - (i vi
Khch hng C Nhn, s dng Phng php ng thng thng k l ph
hp)
Chn la phng php d tr : Trc khi chn mt phng php d tr, nn
th nhiu phng php tnh cc tr s c lng. chn c phng php
ng, th cc tr s vo cng thc tnh ngc li ca tr s Y 0 qu kh (gi l :
s cu qu kh c lng) ri so vi s cu Y thc s cng thi im. Nu
phng php no cho tr s cu qu kh c lng st vi s cu thc s cng
thi im, th c th xem l phng php thch hp nht. o lng phng
php thch hp nht, c th s dng cng thc tnh lch tiu chun (Standard
Deviation) :
SD =
D tr s cu bng cc d kin khc : Thng thng da vo dn sc
lng s cu tng lai, bng cch da t l gia tng dn s hng nm tnh d
kin dn s trong tng lai, v cn c vo mc tiu th bnh qun u ngi
hng nm v sn phm, dch v; T, tnh c s nhu cu d tr tng
lai i vi loi sn phm, dch v cn nh gi.
(YYo)2
n
Phngphp no c SD nh nhtl phng php thch hp nht
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Ngi son tho :
Ngi duyt :
Ngy son tho : //..
Ngy tu chnh : //..Tu chnh ln :
S hp l ca s cu sau iu chnh :
S cu d tr sau iu chnh vn cn c xem xt li bo m tnh hp l
v tnh st thc,