Population ageing in
ASEAN countries:
trends and perspectivesSabine Henning, Ph.D.Chief, Sustainable Demographic Transition Section
Social Development Division
Expert Group Meeting on the
Proposed Regional Action Plan to
Implement The Kuala Lumpur Declaration on Ageing:
Empowering Older Persons in ASEAN
Bangkok, 29-30 April 2019
Older persons: many faces of one of the
major achievements of development
Population ageing:
a major achievement of development (total fertility and life expectancy at birth, Asia, 1950-2050)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Years
Life b
irth
s p
er
wom
an (
aged 1
5-4
9)
Total fertility (births per woman 15-49) Life expectancy at birth (years)
TFR
e(0)
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
15
20
20
25
25
26
45
45
45
53
65
69
73
85
115
Singapore (2000-2015)
Republic of Korea (2000-2020)
China (2005-2025)
Brazil (2010-2035)
Turkey (2010-2035)
Japan (1970-1996)
Poland (1966-2011)
Spain (1947-1992)
United Kingdom (1930-1975)
Hungary (1944-1994)
Canada (1944-2009)
United States (1944-2013)
Australia (1938-2011)
Sweden (1890-1975)
France (1865-1980)
Years
The speed of population ageing is rapid in
Asia-Pacific
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population
Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations, Department of Economic and
Social Affairs, Population Division (2017) and US Census Bureau (2009). An Ageing World: 2008.
number of years required
or expected for percent of
population aged 65 or over
to rise from 7 to 14 per cent
Total fertility in ASEAN has declined
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tota
l fe
rtili
ty r
ate
(liv
e b
irth
per
wom
an,
15
-49 y
ears
)
Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia
Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar
Philippines Sigapore Thailand
Viet Nam ASEAN
Singapore
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
Life expectancy at birth in ASEAN
has increased
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Life e
xpecta
ncy a
t birth
(years
)
Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia
Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar
Philippines Singapore Thailand
Viet Nam ASEAN
Cambodia
Singapore
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
All countries
in ASEAN are ageing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Pro
port
ion
of po
pu
lation
60
+
2015 2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). China, Japan and the Republic of Korea
were added to show a comparison.
The older population
in ASEAN
is getting older
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Pro
port
ion
of po
pu
lation
80
+
2015 2050Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).China, Japan and the Republic of Korea
were added to show a comparison..
In ASEAN, older persons spend up
to 10 years with impairments
0 20 40 60 80
Myanmar
Lao PDR
Philippines
Indonesia
Cambodia
Malaysia
Thailand
Viet Nam
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
Life expectancy at birth (2015-2020) Healthy life expectancy at birth (2016)
years
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017); WHO, Global Health Observatory data
repository, http://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.HALEXv (accessed 28 April 2019).
From “ageing” to “aged” in ASEAN“ageing” - 7-14 per cent of the population 60+; “aged” - 14+ per cent of the population 60+
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
Percent of population 60 years or over by year
Ageing Aged
Brunei Darussalam
2019
9.0 2028 14.4
2050
28.7Cambodia 7.4 2044 14.6 16.9
Indonesia 9.2 2033 14.0 19.2Lao PDR 6.6 2046 14.0 16.1
Malaysia 10.4 2031 14.1 23.1
Myanmar 10.0 2033 14.0 18.5
Philippines 8.0 2050 14.2 14.2
Singapore 21.3 40.1
Thailand 18.4 35.1Viet Nam 12.0 2023 14.0 28.3
In ASEAN by 2100,
the number of young = older persons
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
50
19
65
19
80
19
95
20
10
20
25
20
40
20
55
20
70
20
85
21
00
Tota
l po
pu
lation, bo
th s
exes (
1,0
00)
0-24 25-64 65+
0-24 25-64 65+
0-24 25-64 65+
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
2015
2100
Per cent of
total population
Women comprise the majority of older
persons in ASEAN, 2019 (percentage of older men and women in
the total population by age group)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Viet Nam, 80+Viet Nam, 60+Thailand, 80+Thailand, 60+
Singapore, 80+Singapore, 60+
Philippines, 80+Philippines, 60+
Myanmar, 80+Myanmar, 60+Malaysia, 80+Malaysia, 60+Lao PDR, 80+Lao PDR, 60+
Indonesia, 80+Indoneisa, 60+Cambodia, 80+Cambodia, 60+
Brunei Darussalam, 80+Brunei Darussalam, 60+
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision - Special Aggregates, DVD Edition; United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017).
• more likely to live alone
• less likely to have an
income, own property, have
a pension => higher rates of
poverty
• face problems accessing
services (health, education,
housing etc.) and decent
work
• more likely to be subject to
neglect, abuse and
discrimination
Older women are ….
Pension coverage remains low
in ASEAN, most recent data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Covera
ge o
f m
andato
ry c
ontr
ibuto
ry p
ensio
ns
out
of
the w
ork
ing-a
ge p
opula
tion (
per
cent
of th
e w
ork
ing
-age
popula
tion)
Total Female
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, SDG indicators global database. Data are from Social
Security Inquiry, International Labour Organisation (ILO) (accessed 26 April 2019); only countries with available
data are shown.
Most older persons live with their
children in ASEAN (most recent data)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
sta
tuto
ry r
etire
ment age
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, SDG indicators global database. Data are from Social
Security Inquiry, International Labour Organisation (ILO) (accessed 26 April 2019); only countries with available
data are shown.
… but women are
more likely to live
alone than men
Governments in ASEAN are concerned
about the level of population ageing
Source: Source: United Nations, World Population Policies Database.
http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed 27 April 2019); only countries with available data
are shown.
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Brunei Darussalam NA NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
Cambodia NA NA Minor Major Major Minor Minor Minor
Indonesia Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Major
Lao PDR NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
Myanmar NA NA Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor
Philippines Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Minor Major
Singapore Minor Major Major Major Major Major Major Major
Thailand Major Major Major Major Major Major Major Major
Viet Nam NA Minor Major Major Major Major Major Major
Governments in ASEAN have adopted some
measures to address population ageing,
2015
Raised the
minimum
retirement age
Raised social security
contributions of workers
Introduced or enhanced
non-contributory old-
age pensions
Promoted private
savings schemes
for retirement
Source: Source: United Nations, World Population Policies Database.
http://esa.un.org/poppolicy/about_database.aspx.(accessed 27 April 2019), only countries with available
data are shown.
• Supporting MIPAA review
• Population ageing an ICTs
• Capacity-building on
measuring population ageing
• Active ageing index
• Capacity-building on
pensions
• Research and analysis on
levels and trends in
population ageing
What ESCAP is doing …
Population ageing agenda is an
agenda for all generations
THANK YOU!
WWW.UNESCAP.ORG
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