MAY 09, 2008MAY 09, 2008
POWER SHORTAGE IN PAKISTAN AND SHORT TERMS SOLUTION
TO AVOID LOADSHEDDING.
POWER SHORTAGE IN PAKISTAN AND SHORT TERMS SOLUTION
TO AVOID LOADSHEDDING.
EXISTING GENERATING CAPACITY
* Hydro availability based on last 5 years average ** Excludes 10% Forced Outages for GENCOs & 6.0% for IPPs & Rental
Type of Generation
Nameplate/Installed Capacity
(MW)
Derated/Dependable
Capacity (MW)
Availability (MW)
Summer Winter
WAPDA Hydro 6444 6444 6250 2300*
GENCOs 4840 3580 2780 3222**
IPPs (incl Nuclear) 6115 5541 4950 5208**
Rental 285 188 168 177**
Total 17684 15753 14148 10907
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Historical Demand(2002 – 2007)
YEARWAPDA* KESC COUNTRY**
MW G.R. MW G.R. MW G.R.
2001-02 10109 4.0% 1885 1.3% 11875 3.6%
2002-03 10481 3.7% 1973 4.7% 12244 3.1%
2003-04 11078 5.7% 2073 10.0% 13021 6.4%
2004-05 12035 8.6% 2197 6.0% 14091 8.2%
2005-06 13212 9.8% 2223 1.2% 15282 8.5%
2006-07 15138 14.6% 2349 5.7% 17314 13.3%
* WAPDA computed demand; without export to KESC** Assuming 1% diversity between WAPDA & KESC Power Demands
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Historical Surplus/Deficit(2002 – 2007)
YEAR
WAPDA SYSTEM
Installed Capacity
Firm Capability
Computed Peak Demand
Surplus/ Shortfall
2001-02 15819 10894 10459 435
2002-03 15819 10958 11044 -86
2003-04 17299 11834 11598 236
2004-05 17350 12792 12595 197
2005-06 17400 12600 13847 -1247
2006-07 17366 13292 15838 -2546
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Month-wise surplus/deficit (MW)Month Peak Demand
Corresponding Capability
Surplus/deficit
Jan-07 12093 11039 -1054
Feb-07 11590 12552 962
Mar-07 12311 11171 -1140
Apr-07 13843 13002 -841
May-07 14650 13567 -1083
Jun-07 15838 13292 -2546
Jul-07 15941 13706 -2235
Aug-07 15862 13666 -2196
Sep-7 16056 13644 -2412
Oct-07 13737 14092 355
Nov-07 12401 11590 -811
Dec-07 12154 9679 -2475
Jan-08 12255 9104 -3151
Feb-08 12123 10122 -2001
Mar-08 13682 9845 -3837
Apr-08 15124 11568 -3556 5
Demand & Hydro Capability in May (MW)2007 vs 2008
DatePeak Demand Hydro Capability
2007 2008 Diff 2007 2008 Diff
1 13560 15008 1448 5502 3409 -2093
2 13847 15857 2010 5526 3567 -1959
3 12843 15739 2896 5358 3616 -1742
4 12717 15042 2325 5521 3326 -2195
5 13681 14892 1211 5473 3799 -1674
6 13670 15838 2168 5571 3825 -1746
7 13598 15386 1788 5588 3470 -2118
8 13709 15305 1596 5418 3772 -1646
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LOAD FORECASTBased on Regression Analysis
(Revised April, 2008)
* Base year figure without export to KESC
Year MW G.R (%)
2006-07* 15138
2007-08 16484 8.9
2008-09 17868 8.4
2009-10 19352 8.3
A.C.G.R. (2006-2010) 8.5
2010-11 20874 7.9
2011-12 22460 7.6
2012-13 24126 7.4
2013-14 25919 7.4
2014-15 28029 8.1
A.C.G.R. (2010-2015) 7.7
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FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)
*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 20088
FiscalYear
Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Expected COD
CapacityAdded ineach Year
(MW)
TotalInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Existing Capacity 17684
2007-08 Malakand-III HPP Public 81 May. 2008 141 17825
Rehab. of GENCO Plants Public 60 Jun. 2008
2008-09 Orient Thermal (Balloki) IPP 150 Jul. 2008 2029 19854
Attock Power Project IPP 165 Oct. 2008
Rental Plant at F/Abad IPP 150 Nov. 2008
Rental Plant at Guddu IPP 110 Nov. 2008
Rental Plant at Multan IPP 192 Dec. 2008
Rental Plant at Sahiwal IPP 150 Dec. 2008
Rehab. of GENCO Plants IPP 240 Dec. 2008
Rental Plant at Satiana Road IPP 200 Jan. 2009
Orient Thermal(Balloki) IPP 75 Jan. 2009
FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)
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FiscalYear
Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Expected COD
CapacityAdded ineach Year
(MW)
TotalInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Rental Plant at Ludewala IPP 200 Feb. 2009
Rental Plant at Nooriabad IPP 100 Mar. 2009
Atlas Shirazi Project IPP 225 Mar. 2009
Khan Khwar HPP Public 72 Apr. 2009
2009-10 Duber Khwar HPP Public 130 Jul. 2009 2255 22109
Muridke Power Project IPP 225 Jul. 2009
Fauji Mari Power Proj IPP 202 Sep. 2009
F/Abad ICB Project Public 375 Nov. 2009
Dadu ICB Project Public 375 Nov. 2009
Nishat Power project IPP 200 Dec. 2009
Jinnah Low Head Hydel Public 96 Feb. 2010
Sahiwal Power Project IPP 225 Feb. 2010
*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008
FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)
10
FiscalYear
Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Expected COD
CapacityAdded ineach Year
(MW)
TotalInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Engro Power Project IPP 227 Jun. 2010
Nishat Chunian Project IPP 200 Jun. 2010
2010-11 Allai Khwar HPP Public 121 Jul. 2010 4856 26965
C.C. at F/Abad Public 125 Nov. 2010
C.C. at Dadu Public 125 Nov. 2010
Nandipur Power project Public 425 Dec. 2010
Bhikki Power Project IPP 225 Dec. 2010
Western ElectricProject IPP 150 Dec. 2010
Green Power Project IPP 205 Dec. 2010
KAPCO Extension IPP 400 Dec. 2010
HUBCO Narowal IPP 225 Dec. 2010
Liberty Power IPP 200 Dec. 2010
*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008
FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS*(2008-2011)
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FiscalYear
Name of Project TypeInstalledCapacity
(MW)
Expected COD
CapacityAdded ineach Year
(MW)
TotalInstalledCapacity
(MW)
PIE AmPower Project IPP 390 Dec. 2010
Star Thermal Project IPP 134 Jan. 2011
CC at Chichoki Mallian Public 526 Mar. 2011
Bestway IPP 205 Mar. 2011
Guddu Steam Public 750 Apr. 2011
UCH-2 ICB Power Project IPP 450 Jun. 2011
Gulistan Project IPP 200 Jun. 2011
*Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008
SUMMAY OF POWER SUPPLY & DEMAND POSITION (MW)
*Actual figures up to April, 2008**Based on average hydrology conditions & includes export to KESC
Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2007-08 -2235 -2196 -2412 355 -811 -2475 -3151 -2001 -3837 -3556 -3676 -3198
2008-09 -2884 -2714 -2749 -2780 -2945 -2779 -3028 -2791 -2819 -2824 -2777 -2780
2009-10 -2548 -2276 -2388 -2291 -2270 -2409 -2412 -2282 -2274 -2295 -2264 -2283
2010-11 -2207 -1919 -1598 -1329 -868 -859 -674 -885 -877 -871 -901 -888
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Load Management Programme (LMP)A. By Reduction in Peak Load 1000 MW
• Reduction in industrial load (during peak hours) (400MW)• Switching off alternate street light points (30 MW)• Switching off Bill Boards (20 MW)• Closure of Shopping Plazas by 8.00 P.M (300 MW)• Staggering of Holidays (100 MW)• TOD Meters for Tubewells (150 MW)
B. By Additional Capacity & System Augmentation/Improvement 200 MW• Addition of SPPs at 11 K.V or 132 KV (100 MW)• Massive maintenance–Transmission & Distt. System (50 MW)• System augmentation & up-gradation of distribution T/Fs (30 MW)• Installation of 11KV Capacitors on 11KV Lines (20 MW)
C. Energy Loss Reduction 300 MW• Technical measures (150 MW)• Theft reduction (150 MW)
Total Target Saving 1500 MW13
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