1
2
I. Sales & Market 5 Market Development 2011-2014 6 Current Industry Production 7 Industry Production Projection 8 RFS2 Mandated Volumes 9 Market Segments 10 Gulf Oil Refiners 11 RFS2 Biodiesel Producers 14 Tri-State Fuel Distributors 15 Public Relations Plans 16 P&L Proforma Analysis @ 12Mgy 17 P&L Proforma Analysis @ 30Mgy 18
II. 2nd Generation Biofuels 19 Technology Evolution 20 Most Prevalent Feedstocks 21 Nationwide Woody Biomass 22 Gulf Area Woodshed Size 23
Presentation Overview
Page
3
Existing Competition for Biomass 24 Future Potential Competition for Biomass 25 Feedstock Sources 26 BCAP, USDA Subsidy Program 27 Ester vs. Cellulosic Biodiesel 28 Industry Trend Evolution (through 2022) 29 Plethora of Technologies 30 National Biofuels Activity Map for U.S. 31 Louisiana Biofuels Industry 32
III. 2nd Generation Technology Development 33Vanguard Technology Selection 34 Project Development Overview 35 Project Development Costs (estimated) 36 P&L Proforma 37
Presentation Overview
Page
4
IV. Business Development 38Investment Source Options 39 Developing Relationship Strategies 40 Investor Relations 41 Public Relations 42 JatroDiesel Options 43 Company Valuation Analysis 44
Presentation Overview
Page
5
I. Sales & Marketing
6
Market Development 2011 to 2014
Business strategy: Move to Full Production ASAP
12mgy plant to handle animal fats and other high FFA oils
Start production April 2011
Establish feedstock agreement (2 yrs.), start Jan. 2011
Establish sales reps. In market area (Louisiana)
Develop markets and obtain off-take agreements, start Jan. 2011
Summer 2011 expand to 30Mgy (reduce processing cost)
Expand market area to Texas, Miss. And surrounding states
* Projected, not final
7
Biofuels 2010 Production, Aug. to Nov.:
* Source: EIA 12/10/10
Cellulosic Biofuel (D3)RINs 0 0 0 0
Gallons 0 0 0 0
Ester-Based Biodiesel (D4)RINs 47,036,210 45,262,210 54,446,724 61,804,117
Volume 31,357,019 30,174,216 36,297,239 41,202,250
Advanced Biofuel (D5)RINs 476,540 3,225,469 3,346,845 4,848,874
Gallons 312,800 2,137,764 2,212,636 3,126,238
Renewable Fuel (D6) Ethanol (Corn Starch)
RINs 986,168,839 1,137,863,591 1,122,083,470 1,075,039,889
Gallons 985,662,471 1,136,508,416 1,118,373,485 1,074,829,277
Cellulosic Diesel (D7)RINs 0 0 0 0
Volume 0 0
August September October November
Market Development Current Industry Production
8
Biofuels Industry Production Projection thru 2015:
* Source: Biofuels Digest 10/7/10. Red indicates categories applicable to Vanguard
Notes Items in RED(1, 2, 3) include: diesel fuel, ASTM-D975, Jet Fuel D1655, and Gasoline D4814
Market Development Industry Production Projection
MILLIONS OF GALLONS
Ethanol (Cellulosic) 11.14 34.09 400.43 1012.76 1036.63 1076.63
Renewable Drop In Fuel (Cellulosic) 0.61 26.44 197.77 301.77 622.62 622.62
Biobutanol (Cellulosic) 0.01 0.01 10.51 10.51 30.51 30.51
BioDME (Cellulosic) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Biodiesel (Advanced) 0.56 1.32 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81
Bio oil (Advanced) 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00 75.00
Renewable diesel (Advanced) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Renewable oils (Advanced) 0.11 0.19 100.14 100.14 100.14 100.14
Algae (Advanced) 0.32 1.52 101.96 101.96 101.96 101.96
1
2
3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
9
RFS2 - Equivalence Values of RINsEthanol (Corn starch) = 1.0Biodiesel (Ester) = 1.5Cellulosic & Advanced Biodiesel = 1.7Butanol (Advanced) = 1.3
Obligated Parties (fuel importers & refiners)Must meet all four categories of biofuel type or incur
fine of $37,500/day for each category not met.
Volume Requirements in Billion Gallons/Yr
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2022
Ethanol (Corn starch) 12.07 12.83 13.42 14.09 14.79 15.00
Biodiesel (FAME) .72 .92 .92 .85 .85 .85Cellulosic Biodiesel .10 .20 .41 .71 1.22 6.52Advanced Biodiesel .22 .17 .12 .39 .53 .82Cellulosic Ethanol .08 .15 .31 .54 .92 4.92
TOTALS 13.38 14.48 15.61 16.93 18.85 28.11*
* plus imports of 8Mgy Source: EPA 2010, will be adjusted 3Q 2011 for 2012 based on analysis of industry capability
Market Development RFS2 Mandated Volumes
10
Marketing to: LA, TX, MS, Tolling
& Export
Oil Companies
Fuel Distributors
Tolling & Export
To fulfill RFS2 requirements (B5)
To service stations, large commercial and municipal (B20)
Contract sales for tolling. Spot export sales (B100)
Thru oil company specialty reps. with direct contacts. Comm.: $0.01/g
Thru oil company specialty reps. with direct contacts (w/exclusions). Comm.: $0.01/g
Direct sales to local market. Through reps. to all others Comm.: $0.01/g
Market Volumes 50%
25% (local)
15% (states) 10%
EBITDA/g Potential
$0.22 $0.25 $0.20
$0.18
Market Development Market Segments
11
Oil Refiners (obligated parties)Louisiana Alliance Refinery (ConocoPhillips), Belle Chasse 250,000 bb//d (40,000 m3/d)Baton Rouge Refinery (ExxonMobil), Baton Rouge 503,000 bbl/d (80,000 m3/d)Chalmette Refinery oJV w/ ExxonMobil and PDVSA), Chal. 193,000 bbl/d (30,700 m3/d)Convent Refinery (Motiva Enterprises), Convent 255,000 bbl/d (40,500 m3/d)Cotton Valley Refinery (Calumet Lubricants), Cotton Val. 13,000 bbl/d (2,100 m3/d)Garyville Refinery (Marathon Petroleum Company), Gary. 436,000 bbl/d (69,300 m3/d)Krotz Springs Refinery (Alon), Krotz Springs 85,000 bbl/d (13,500 m3/d)Lake Charles Refinery (Calcasieu Refining), Lake Charles 30,000 bbl/d (4,800 m3/d)Lake Charles Refinery (Citgo), Lake Charles 425,000Lake Charles Refinery (ConocoPhillips), Westlake 247,000Meraux Refinery (Murphy Oil), Meraux 125,000 bbl/d (19,900 m3/d)Norco Refinery (Motiva Enterprises), Norco 242,000 bbl/d (38,500 m3/d)Port Allen Refinery (Placid Refining), Port Allen 48,500 bbl/d (7,710 m3/d)Princeton Refinery (Calumet Lubricants), Princeton 8,300 bbl/d (1,320 m3/d)Shreveport Refinery (Calumet Lubricants), Shreveport 35,000 bbl/d (5,600 m3/d)St. Charles Refinery (Valero), Norco 260,000 bbl/d (41,000 m3/d)
MississippiLumberton Refinery (Hunt Southland Refining), Lumberton 5,800 bbl/d (920 m3/d)Pascagoula Refinery (Chevron), Pascagoula 325,000 bbl/d (51,700 m3/d)Vicksburg Refinery (Ergon), Vicksburg 23,000 bbl/d (3,700 m3/d)Rogerslacy Refinery (Hunt Southland Refining), Sandersv. 11,000 bbl/d (1,700 m3/d)
Market Development Gulf Oil Refiners
12
Texas Baytown Refinery (ExxonMobil), Baytown 557,000 bbl/d (88,600 m3/d)Big Spring Refinery (Alon USA), Big Spring 61,000 bbl/d (9,700 m3/d)Beaumont Refinery (ExxonMobil), Beaumont 348,500 bbl/d (55,410 m3/d)Borger Refinery (ConocoPhillips/EnCana), Borger 146,000 bbl/d (23,200 m3/d)Corpus Christi Complex (Flint Hills Resources), C. Christi 288,000 bbl/d (45,800 m3/d)Corpus Christi Refinery (Citgo), Corpus Christi 156,000 bbl/d (24,800 m3/d)Corpus Christi E. & W. West Refineries (Valero), C.Christi 257,000 bbl/d (40,000 m3/d)Deer Park Refinery (Shell Oil Company), Deer Park 333,700 bbl/d (53,050 m3/d)El Paso Refinery (Western Refining), El Paso 120,000 bbl/d (19,000 m3/d)Houston Refinery (Lyondell), Houston 270,200 bbl/d (42,960 m3/d)Houston Refinery (Valero), Houston 83,000 bbl/d (13,200 m3/d)Independent Refinery (Stratnor), Houston 100,000 bbl/d (16,000 m3/d)McKee Refinery (Valero), Sunray 158,300 bbl/d (25,170 m3/d)Pasadena Refinery (Petrobras), Pasadena 100,000 bbl/d (16,000 m3/d)Port Arthur Refinery (Total), Port Arthur 174,000 bbl/d (27,700 m3/d) Port Arthur Refinery (Motiva Enterprises), Port Arthur 285,000 bbl/d (45,300 m3/d)Port Arthur Refinery (Valero), Port Arthur 325,000 bbl/d (51,700 m3/d)Penreco (Calumet [disambiguation needed]), HoustonSan Antonio Refinery (Age Refining), San Antonio 10,300 bbl/d (1,640 m3/d)Sweeny Refinery (ConocoPhillips), Sweeny 229,000 bbl/d (36,400 m3/d)Texas City Refinery (BP), Texas City 460,000 bbl/d (73,000 m3/d)Texas City Refinery (Marathon Petroleum Company), T.C. 72,000 bbl/d (11,400 m3/d)Texas City Refinery (Valero), Texas City 210,000 bbl/d (33,000 m3/d)Three Rivers Refinery (Valero), Three Rivers 90,000 bbl/d (14,000 m3/d)Tyler Refinery (Delek Refining Ltd.), Tyler 55,000 bbl/d (8,700 m3/d)
Market Development Gulf Oil Refiners
13
Market Development Gulf Oil Refiners
AlabamaTuscaloosa Refinery (Hunt Refining Company), Tuscaloosa 52,000 bbl/d (8,300 m3/d)Saraland Refinery (Shell Oil Company), Saraland 80,000 bbl/d (13,000 m3/d)Mobile Refinery (Gulf Atlantic Refining & Marketing), Mo. 16,700 bbl/d (2,660 m3/d)
OklahomaArdmore Refinery (Valero), Ardmore 74,700 bbl/d (11,880 m3/d)Ponca City Refinery (ConocoPhillips), Ponca City 194,000 bbl/d (30,800 m3/d)Tulsa Refinery (Sinclair Oil), Tulsa 70,300 bbl/d (11,180 m3/d)Tulsa Refinery (Holly Corporation), Tulsa 83,200 bbl/d (13,230 m3/d)Wynnewood Refinery, Wynnewood 71,700 bbl/d (11,400 m3/d)Ventura Refining and Transmission, Thomas 14,000 bbl/d (2,200 m3/d)
ArkansasEl Dorado Refinery (Lion Oil), El Dorado 70,000 bbl/d (11,000 m3/d)Smackover Refinery (Cross Oil), Smackover 6,800 bbl/d (1,080 m3/d)
TennesseeMemphis Refinery (Valero), Memphis 180,000 bbl/d (29,000 m3/d)
Total Production 8,962,100 bbl/day** 376,408,200 gallons/day
Required Obligation under RFS2 525,500,000 gallons/year*
* Southern Oil Companies’ approx. 65% of total fuel production nationwide, and share of 850M gallons required for ester-Biodiesel under RFS2 for 2011
** Total U.S. daily consumption is 21,000,000bbbl/d
14
Market Development RFS2 Biodiesel Producers
AlabamaEagle Biodiesel, Inc.30,000,000
ArkansasDelta American Fuel, LLC 40,000,000
LouisianaVanguard Synfuel, LLC12,000,000
MississippiDelta Biofuels, Inc. 80,000,000Scott Petroleum Corporation 20,000,000
Total Production 632Mgy (8.3% over-production meeting RFS2)
Vanguard Market Share @ 26.2Mgy @ 10.7Mgy
Texas Agribiofuels, LLC 12,000,000 Beacon Energy 12,000,000Direct Fuels 10,000,000 Green Earth Fuels of Houston90,000,000 RBF Port Neches, LLC180,000,000 Texas Green Manufacturing, LLC 1,250,000The Sun Products Corp 15,000,000
OklahomaHigh Plains Bioenergy 130,000,000
Total Req. under RFS2 for ALL southern oil companies 525Mgy
4.9% 2.0%
15
Market Development Tri-State Fuel Distributors
Louisiana Richard Oil & Fuel Holding Co DonaldsonvilleAmar Oil Co Inc HammondSiarc Inc GramercyBreaux Petroleum Products Inc Lockport E & S Inc KentwoodJames R Drummond Inc Alexandria John W Stone Oil Distributor GretnaLacassine Fuel LLC LacassineLard Oil Co Inc Denham Springs Leake Oil Co Inc Saint FrancisvilleMartin Midstream Partners LP Amelia Robertson Oil Co Inc BogalusaRussell Daniel Oil Co Inc Saint FrancisvilleWilcox Oil Co Inc--Lm Saint FrancisvilleRpl Oil Distributor & Supply
Texas H & W Petroleum Co Inc Houston Koenning Inc San Antonio Beacon Energy CleburnePetroleum Wholesale LP Spring Allstar Fuel Graham Brenco Marketing Corp Bryan Brotherhood Investments LP Dallas Brotherhood Investments LP Red OakDerrick Oil & Supply Inc of Port Arthur Devon Inc Houston Dfw Biodiesel Inc Fort WorthDixie Oil Co San AntonioDunhill Products, LP HoustonFuelone Inc HoustonGoodin Fuels Inc HerefordH & W Petroleum Co Inc LongviewH & W Petroleum Co Inc LufkinLanders Oil Co HigginsNorth Texas Locomotive Service BurlesonOn Site Fuels Helotes
Mississippi Buffalo Services Inc McCombLard Oil Co Inc Laurel, MS Southland Oil Co Jackson, MS
16
Market Development Public Relations
Local & StatewidePress Release written & adapted for each group listed below. Continued contact describing and creating awareness for green technologies and their benefits to local area and society at large:
Personal letters to Mayor, City Council, County Board
Local new organizations (daily, weekly, newsletters)
Letters to Chamber of Commerce
Education program for School Districts (K-12th grades)
City, County and local State government
Local businesses (oil, chemicals, forestry etc.).
17
Market Development P&L Analysis @12Mgy
17
18
Market Development P&L Analysis @30Mgy
18
19
II. 2nd Generation Biofuels
20
Ester-Biodiesel Future is Limited (i) Max. availability of animal fats (USA) = 2 Bgy(ii) Soy, canola, palm - low yields = 45 g/ac
(Latter groups have food vs. fuel issues)(iii) Jatropha, non-food, also limited yield = 170 g/ac(iv) Future optimization maybe 2 x above(v) Algae has excellent yields = 2k-3k g/ac
(Contamination issues could slow progress)
Cellulosic Biomass” Preferred for BiofuelsMassive amounts of low cost feestocks 2011 2030(i) Waste biomass (agri, animal, MSW) = Approx. 300Mt/y(ii) Forest waste, 5 tons dry/acre = 300g 1,500/ac* (iii) Grasses, up to 16 tons/acre = 600g 2,000/ac*(iv) Certain so. hardwoods, 28 tons/acre = 900g 3,000/ac*(v) Algae = 15,000/ac?(vi) Sugar Cane = 400g 700/ac(vii) Jatropha = 170g 300/ac
* Goal by 2030 through optimization will substantially increase out-puts including minimum reliance on water and fertilization
Technology Evolution Feedstock Yield Comparison
21
Feedstock Sources For Next Twenty Years(in order of availability) *(i) Waste Biomass (Agri, Animal, MSW, scrap wood)(ii) Grasses (Miscanthus, Sorghum, Switchgrass)
(iii) Algae(iv) Forest Residue (Pre-thinnings, Commercial
thinnings, Harvesting waste, Plant waste)(v) Sugar Cane (approx. 15% from USA)
(vi) Jatropha (Less than 10% from USA)(vii) Crop food for ethanol (sugar beets, cavassa)
(viii) Crop food for biodiesel (castor, palm oil)(ix) Corn (x) Soy
* Industry survey conducted 6/2010, Biofuels Digest
Technology Evolution Most Prevalent Feedstocks
22
Sources of Woody Biomass (Advanced Biofuel)*
Southeast = 49.8%
Northeast = 2.0%
Northwest = 4.6%
West = <0.3%
Central East = 43.3%
To meet 2022 production goal of 21bgy = 527 plants x 40mgy
In Southeast to produce 10.5bgy = 263 plants x 40mgy
* Source: USDA Biofuels Strategic Production Report, June 2010
Technology Evolution Nationwide Woody Biomass
23
Biomass AvailabilityWithin 120 and 180Miles fromAlexandria, LA
Technology Evolution Woodshed Size (Gulf area)
2-hrs 3-hrs# of Suppliers 221 570
Whole Tree Chip $27 $31Forest Residue $23 $28
Pricing projections CIF Vanguard on an annual contract basis
Source: Ecostrat , General Biofuel, Ontario, CANADA
24
Technology Evolution Competitors for Biomass
ExistingCompetitors(for biomass)
Source: Ecostrat , General Biofuel, Ontario, CANADA
24
25Source: Ecostrat General Biofuel, Ontario, CANADA
Technology Evolution Competitors for Biomass
PotentialFutureCompetitors(for biomass)
26
Feedstock Acquisition Strategy
- Long term supply agreements of woody biomass – 5 yrs
- Warranted through a credit wrap with major international financial institutions (Noble Group) www.thisisnoble.com
- Latter cost adds about $3/ton- Current price about $29/ton delivered
- Logistics assessments – transport by barge, rail and truck
- Purchase through aggregator- Through local sources
- Assurance all products meet sustainability and renewable energy standards
- Access to the latest government regulatory and subsidy programs information (e.g. USDA’s BCAP Program to provide up to $45/ton incentive to foresters)
•.
Technology Evolution Feedstock Sources
27
- BCAP provides matching payments
- Up to $45/dry ton to forester only
- Material must be an approved type
- Must be sold to qualified biomass conversion facilities
- Qualified facilities: Those that convert biomass to heat, for power biobased products (electricity) and for advanced biofuels
- Two year program (to be extended to 5-Year)
- New program under final USDA review
USDA, Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP)
Technology Evolution USDA Subsidy Program
28
Technology Comparison:
Carbon Reduction (2010) 60% 20-30% 80%
Scalability (by 2030) gallons per acre n/a 2,500 2,500
Sustainability Pot. (by 2030) Poor High High
Product Quality Poor Good Good
Unsubsidized 10 year Market Poor Good Very Good Competitiveness Potential @$45/bbl oil @$45/bbl oil @$45/bbl oil
Production Cost (excl. feed.) High ($0.50/g) Med-Low ($0.35) Med-Low ($0.35)
Technology Static Active Development Active Development
Cetane 50-65 75-90
Cloud Point (C) -5 to +15 -20 to +10
Specific Gravity .88 .78
Pipeline Fungible < B5 (some pipelines; All Europe) No Yes
Oxidative Characterisitcs Poor Excellent
Shelf Life < 6 months Good <12 months
Cold Flow Poor Excellent
Ester-Biodiesel Ethanol (FAME-based)
Specifications:
Cellulosic Biodiesel
Technology Evolution Ester vs. Cellulosic Biodiesel
29
How the Game Plays Out:
0
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%CELLULOSIC ETHANOL & RENEWABLE DIESEL*
CORN ETHANOL
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
2010 Cellulosic production begins. Green diesel comes on market. Blends to B100 use existing national fuel pipeline lowering transportation costs. Dynamic Fuels turns on 75Mgy plant using poultry fat.
2011 Enzyme and catalyst development reaches commercial level
2012 Twenty new plants come on line using forestry waste, municipal waste and grasses. Achieve significant large scale, lowering production costs
2020 Genetic engineering, plant breeding and “grass cocktails” are used to amplify energy yields of biofuels, decrease environmental impact, and lower costs
2022 Chemists introduce biofuels that go beyond butanol.
* And other biofuels
Bio
fuel
s%
of T
otal
Dem
and
for T
rans
porta
tion
fuel
s
*Source: Vinod Khosla, Biofuels Trajectory to Success 2008
Technology Evolution Industry Trend Estimate*
30
Companies to Watch:
ProductCore TechnologyCompanyFeedstockVegetable Oil Imperium, Future
Fuel, VanguardTransesterification Ester-Biodiesel
Sugar/StarchCilion, Aventine Altra, Poet, Verasun Dry mill yeast fermentation Ethanol
ZeaChem Ethlvacetate production/hydrocracking Ethanol
BP-Dupont Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Green Biologics Cobalt, Gevo
Bacterial fermentation Butanol
Amyris LS9 Synthetic/fermentation
Diesel/Gasoline Biocrude
Virent Energy Aqueous phase reforming Diesel/gasoline
GreenFuel, PetroSun Aurora Biofuels LiveFuels
Growth with CO2 and light / transesterification of hydrocracking
Biocrude Lipids Fatty acid esters
Mascoma, Verenium Logen, Poet, Abengoa SunEthanol, TMA
Enzyme hydrolysis/fermentation Ethanol
Algae
Biomass Forestry waste Agricultural Animal
EthanolRangeFuels, BRI Coskata, Chorena
Gasification/catalysis or syngas fermentation
Kior Catalysis/pyrolisis Biocrude
Municipal Waste
Lanza CO fermentation Ethanol
BlueFire Acid hydrolysis/fermentation Ethanol
Changing World Tech. Thermal depolymerization Fuel oil
Companies in feed- stock improvement:
Monsanto DuPont, Praj Syngenta Allelyx, Teri Ceres Bical, Agrivida Edenspace
$ Lo
wer
Fee
d C
ost
$
Hig
her
Technology Evolution A Plethora of Technologies
31
Renewable Fuels Plants in Pilot, Under Construction or Planned (46)
Source: Biofuels Digest 10/7/10
Technology Evolution National Biofuels Industry
32
Companies located in Alexandria Woodshed (within 250 miles)
Current StatusRFS2 Cat.Company Feedstock
Aquatic Energy Lake Chalres, LA Algae BioCrude Oil
BP/Verenium, Jennings, LA
Technology
Algal Oil Extraction
2012 - 2013 Production
30k12 acre algae demon-stration facility
Enzymatic HydrolysisBagasse Cellulosic Ethanol 36mgy Starting 2012. BP sold 50% stake to Verenium in 2010.
Dynamic Fuels/ Syntroleum/Tyson Geismer, LA
Animal fats (Tyson)Pyrolysis/Gasification Fischer TropschRenewable Diesel 75mgy In production as of 10/10
Kior Columbus, MS
Multiple Biomass BioCrude oilPlans to build three more plants including in Newton County and at Bude, MS
120mgyPyrolysis/Gasification Fischer Tropsch
Source: Biofuels Digest 10/7/10
Darling/Valero Norco, LA Animal fats Renewable Diesel Not determined 135mgy
Need DOE funding to move ahead
Technology Evolution Louisiana Biofuel Industry
Rentech Natchez, MS 250mgyMultiple Biomass
Renewable Diesel, Jet Fuel Fischer Tropsch
HQ, Rialto, CA. Also biorefinery
Raven Biofuels Paramus, NJ Forestry waste Acid Hydrolysis 10mgy
Funding/Public Co. Mkt Cap $630k
Cellulosic Ethanol
33
III. Technology Development
34
Technology Development Project Technology Selection
Technology Overview
Product choice: Bio-oil from biomass(decision explanation, see next slide)Technology proprietary, but uses off-the-shelf scienceIP development belongs to VanguardPossible trade secret vs. patent (TBD)Project concurrent with productionafter ramp-up to 30Mgy (new trans) 9/11Plant size: 30Mgy to 50Mgy (TBD)100% funded through VanguardJatroDiesel will provide engineering thru new process commissioningApprox. 30% of existing assets are usable (tanks, pumps, piping)Feedstock milling and main processor main new itemsTotal cost including bench work, piloting, demo and plant: <$30MRelationship options with http://www.JatroDiesel (see page 43).
35
Technology Development Project Overview
Product Overview
Product choice: Bio-oil (or bio-crude)Made from biomass (grasses, wastewood, municipal solid waste)Conversion process called “hydrothermal.“ Process uses water and methanol (or equal) at high temp.and pressure to extract oilOil sent to an oil refinery’s coker unitand is thermally “cracked” into a drop-in-fuel (gasoline, diesel or jet fuel)Bio-oil plant is 1/6th cost of making green dieselor drop-in gasoline or jet fuel APlant is easily and rapidly scalable, with known costsLow adoption hurdlesLeverages existing transport and storage infrastructureLeverages existing refinery infrastructurePlant easily replicable; modular; scalable from 5Mgy to ?
36
Technology Development Project Development Costs
Development Cycle (Overview)
$100k
$200k
$300k
$400k
$500k
$600k
Dec. ‘11
March ‘12
July ‘12
Oct. ‘12
Jan. ‘13
April ‘13
Oct. ‘13
Jan. ‘14
April ‘14
T e
c h
n i c
a l
D e
v e
l o
p m
e n
t C
o s
t
$1.0M
$2.0M
$5M
$10M
$15M
$20M
C a
p i
t a
l
P l
a n
t
C o
s t
$750k $25M
Technical Development Cost Capital Plant Cost
Sept. ‘11
30Mgy trans expansion complete. Begin bench testing 2nd Gen
Build pilot test- ing processor. Approx. 50kg/m
Pilot test- ing processor starts operation
Pilot test- ing complete. Final drawings for 30Mgy plant
Complete draw- ings. Order pilot plant equipment
Equipment installation begins 6 week build
Main plant drawings complete. Order equipment.
Equipment in and ready for install- ation (4 months)
Installation complete begin commissioning
Plant operations begin*
* Operation concurrent with existing 30Mgy trans. Biodiesel ops.
37
Technology Development P&L Proforma
37
38
IV. Business Development
39
Business Development Investment Options
GovernmentUSDA loan guarantees – to show commercial capability (vs. for R&D)Dept. of Energy – for commercially feasible technologies (drop-ins?)
Institutional (equity investment of common and/or preferred stock)
Pension fund Mutual fund Investment trust Investment banking Hedge fund Sovereign wealth fund Endowment fund Private equity firms Insurance companies
Public Partnership
Enterprise Zone Tax Credits or Funding
40
Developing RelationshipsTargeting institutional and private investors with quarterly newsletter announcing company progress.
In addition, direct contact with certain qualified investors, businesses, banks and other lending institutions, including:
Oil companies (as an adjunct to marketing effort)Investment companies with a history investing in renewable energyFollowing up inquiries of investment interests from PRGrant organizations (Federal, State and Private)
Business Development Investment Options
41
Business Development Investor Relations
Companies Invested in Biofuels (sample, many more)
42
National. International and StatePress Release written & adapted for each group. A first story might be about time line for the development of new technology and anticipated production start date. Distributed to:
. . . and addressing Local market (as shown on slide 14).
Special interest publications - consumerDaily newspapers business section editors – business & consumerBusiness/Investor publications – business & investorsEnergy organizations (print and on-line) – trade & consumerRenderers’ Association - tradeBiofuels Digest - tradeChemicals Digest - tradeBiodiesel Magazine - trade Biofuels Business - trade
Business Development Public Relations
43
Step 1: Technology Procurement Options
Business Development JatroDioesel Investment Options
Hire scientists and develop
Criteria Positive Impact Negative Impact
Exclusive License
Non-Exclusive License
Joint Venture (stand alone JV entity)
Equity Partner (w/preferred and/or common stock)
Company owns IP. License and distribution rights opportunity
Acquire talent; keep talent; track work history; potential long lead time
Potential shorter lead time; technology ready and; strong market position; ability to re- license and distribution rights; increased company valuation
Initial and long term cost; lack of control for development; financing more difficult to obtain; legal issues over use
Lower initial and on-going royalty cost; technology tested and ready to deploy;mitigated legal issues potential
Lack of competitive advantage; lack of development control; financing more difficult to obtain
Control over IP development; joint ownership in IP; ability to maximize re-licensing and distribution rights; no licensing fees to others. Increased JV company valuation. Easier financing
Separate company issue; cost of development; trust in JV partner issues; harder to finance the non-JV component of business
Control over IP development; joint ownership in IP; ability to maximize re-licensing and distribution rights; no licensing fees to others. Increased company valuation. Easier financing
Give up equity. Cost if preferred stock option has guarantees and goals not met etc.
Hire Vendor to Develop Own IP with all right thereof Cost. Future development certainty
44
Business strategy to migrate from Ester-Biodesel to Renewable oil by 2014
Basis for common stock share value:
Business Development Company Valuation
Plant Current valuation12Mgy $ 22,000,0005 x EBITDA + assets(port assets leased)
Plant at 30Mgy (trans.) $ 55,000,0005x EBITDA + assets
Plant at 30Mgy (2nd Gen) $100,000,0007 x EBITDA + assets
Plant at 90Mgy (2nd Gen) $ 200,000,00010 x EBITDA + assets