@all studying the #twitter phenomenon
December 2009
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 2
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 3
To comment the study, tag your messages with:
#twitterstudy
To watch the live presentation, go to:
talk.fabernovel.com
Comment this study
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 4
What is twitter?
What do people do with twitter?
Why did twitter grow so fast?
What business model for twitter?
Who could challenge twitter?
Conclusion
Summary
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 5
Meet the tweet.
A tweet is a text-based message up to 140 characters
automatically delivered to the author’s followers.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 6
You follow people
Following someone means you get their tweets
as soon as they post them.
you your friend
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 7
And people follow you
Your followers get your tweets in real-time :
you become a media.
you
your friend
a huge fan of yours
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 8
By default, everything is public on Twitter
Unlike Facebook, you usually don’t have to know
someone to have a full access to their tweets.
Twitter is a huge base of public data.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 9
Twitter interface : simple and elegant
What’s happening for you?
Write your tweet here
What’s happening for
your followers?
You can read that here
you
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 10
To define what twitter is, let’s see what twitter isn’t
twitter is not a:
blog The number of characters of a post is unlimited. One
tweet is limited to 140 prints.Twitter is not a blog
sms You can send both a tweet an a SMS from your
mobile phone. But the tweet is posted on the Internet, and
is public.Twitter is not a SMS
chat A chat conversation is private, a twitter
conversation is publicTwitter is not a chat
social network In a social network, your profile is private.
In twitter, everybody can follow you, you can follow
everybody, and your profile is public.Twitter is not a social network
Is Twitter a
# Micro-blogging service?
# Public SMS platform?
# Public social network?
# Public chat?
Twitter is the SMS of internet era.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 11
What is twitter?
What do people do with twitter?
Why did twitter grow so fast?
What business model for twitter?
Who could challenge twitter?
Conclusion
Summary
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 12
Reputation: twitter in France
Dear French Internet user, do you know...
Yes : 60%
Yes : 4%
Yes : 1%
Source : pour L’Atelier
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 13
Reputation: twitter in France
Source : pour L’Atelier
Incredible growth !
%%
%
%
%
%
%
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 14
Usages: twitter in France
Source : pour L’Atelier
Percentage of twitter members within our «aware
internet users» ?
9%
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 15
Reputation: twitter in France
Source : pour L’Atelier
Who knows twitter in France?
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 16
Usages: twitter in France
Source : pour L’Atelier
Who is the French twitter user ?
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 17
Usages: the French case
What publication client/device do you use ?
30%
twitter.com
39%
PC / Mac
client
31%
Smartphone client
Source : Poll launched by L’Atelier
on twtpoll.com – november 2009
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 18
Usages: the French case
Source : pour L’Atelier
Tweeting, yes, but for what ideal purposes ?
Having good deals & coupons
Creating and sharing a friend network
Recruiting an employee
69%
65%
40%
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 19
Usages
Tweeting, yes, but for what real purposes ?
51%
3%14%
8%
13%
7% 2%
Source : Poll launched by L’Atelier
on twtpoll.com – november 2009
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 20
Usages: twitter in France
Useless? < twitter < Useful?
French Internet users French Twitter members
73%63%
Source : pour L’Atelier
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 21
Who tweets?
Individuals
Typical user I’m 31 years old, tech-savvy. And I do a lot of
things with my phone.But 55% of users haven’t posted any tweet on their account!
Star Ashton Kutcher (aplusk) was the first twitter account
to reach 1 M followersAnd he chats with Demi Moore...
Blogger Pete Cashmore (mashable) has 1 M followersMashable is a famous blog about social media
Politician Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet frequently uses
twitter Minister of Forward Planning, Assessment of Public Policies and
Development of the Digital Economy in the French government,
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 22
Who tweets?
Companies & public institutions
twitter users’ are still a minority of tech-savvy people, companies and institutions
who have prominent communication needs
Media CNN and the New York Times are among the first
20 most followed twitter accounts.But...Ashton Kutcher has more followers than CNN!
High-tech companies Google tweets to inform, Dell
tweets to sell.
Other companies The majority of Fortune 100 companies
don’t really get Twitter.50% of the twitter accounts of Fortune 100 companies have less than 500
followers
Public Insitutions The White House, l’Elysée
communicate via Twitter. L’Elysée plans to tweet during Copenhagen Climate Conference
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 23
What does the average user do with twitter?
Compared to other community-
driven websites (facebook,
MySpace, etc.)
twitter is more business and
gossip oriented.
Follow and discuss news or
live events• 41% of URLs tweeted are news.
• A majority of users use twitter as a news aggregator.
Strategic Intelligence• Users follow mainly people who have the same kind of
business
Gossip• Asthon Kutcher, Britney Spears and Ellen DeGeneres
are the 3 most followed twitter accounts
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 24
What do bloggers do with twitter?
twitter is a way, for bloggers, to
explore new editorial areas,
mainly “link journalism” & real
time analysis
They increase the ranking of
their blogs• Twitter has become one of the main sources of
traffic (eg : 10% of TechCrunch traffic ).
• Being on twitter increases your Google ranking.
They do “link journalism”Bloggers use twitter to analyze events in real time
Bloggers use twitter to rapidly pinpoint interesting links
They carry on a continuous
relationship with their readers•Followers get directly informed when a new post / a
new tweet is published.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 25
How do companies use twitter?
twitter is an efficient marketing
tool, both for companies and
customers:
good knowledge of customers
& free marketing opt-in channel
They monitor in real-time
competitors, reputation and
improve business intelligence
They sell and market their
productsNew sales channel (Dell)
New marketing channel (Pizza Hut)
To evaluate consumer
satisfaction and take into
account their feedback•Crowd sourcing innovation to users (Zakos)
•Conducting surveys on existing products (GM)
•Gathering feedback on experimental products (Dunkin
Donuts)
•Customer service (@MicrosoftHelps )
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 26
How do public institutions use twitter?
twitter is an efficient
communication and reporting
tool for public institutions
EmergenciesEg: @SF-311 for emergencies in SF
PoliceEg: West Midlands Police (UK)
GovernmentsEg : Downing Street (UK)
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 27
Ashton Kutcher3.9M
CNN 2.8M
Barack Obama2.7M
Dell Outlet1.4M
TechCrunch1.1M
Majorityof
accounts< 50
Who is the most followed on twitter?
twitter is much more a one-way communication channel
than a social media network
Number of
followers
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 28
90% of the content is
produced by 15% of users
• More unidirectionnal than
peer to peer communication
• Few contributors, many
readers
Twitter usage is similar to wikipedia
90% of the content is
produced by 10% of users
• A community lead by
hyperactive users
• Few actual tweople
• The more follower you
have, the more you tweet
A typical power law distribution applies to content creation and usage
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 29
What is twitter?
What do people do with twitter?
Why did twitter grow so fast?
What business model for twitter?
Who could challenge twitter?
Conclusion
Summary
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 30
What is the history of twitter?
2006launch
2007fame
2008development
2009success
twitter is publicly
launched.
twitter won the “blog
price” at SXSW
Interactive*
twitter raises $22M
and opens its API,
developers create
twitter applications.
twitter raises $35M
and has a growth of
1,300% in a year**
* South by Southwest Interactive is one of the best festival in the world for creative technologies
** Feb 08- Feb 09
twitter’s growth is amazing:
in 2009, twitter is the fastest community driven growing-site.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 31
• The number of US mobile Internet users grew by 170% in two years*
• The rise of mobile Internet users was a tremendous accelerator for twitter
• The 140-char format is adapted to mobile situations
• People were already used to SMS
• People can also tweet and be followed by using SMS.
twitter benefited from the rise of mobile Internet
* Feb 07- Feb 09 (Nielsen)
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 32
Celebrities
Most-followed accounts “ever” :
Media
• Media coverage on Twitter before
other major medias
• Ideal tool to cover live event in
real time
• difficult to censor
Thanks to an early adoption by celebrities and media,
twitter reached a big audience rapidly
“twitter star system” and verified accounts have spurred its adoption by a non-geeky audience
twitter became THE real time news channel
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 33
As a generic platform, twitter’s growth has been
user-driven
developers
users
New uses: #, @, RT, etc.
New applications
New functions : RT, lists, etc.
API (opened in 2008)
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 34Picture by Thenextweb.Com
A strong community of developers
It is very difficult to compete with twitter, because a new-comer has to create
a more powerful network than twitter’s one.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 35
What are the prospects for twitter?
Whereas twitter grows very fast,
its business model remains unpredictable…
By the end of 2009
25 million users
Q3 2009 : $400 000
Q4 2009 : $4 000 000
By the end of 2013
1 billion users
$1.54 billion in revenue,
$111 million in net earnings
How?
Source: TechCrunch, July 09
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 36
What is twitter?
What do people do with twitter?
Why did twitter grow so fast?
What business model for twitter?
Who could challenge twitter?
Conclusion
Summary
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 37
Make the bird lay golden eggs: hypothesis for
twitter’s business model
Market research
Companies pay to do market research on
twitter, twitter selects the panels and
analyses the results
Couponing and/or SMS advertising
• ads and/or coupons to opt-in twitter accounts.
• Prospects selected by geolocation or by twitter
Contextual ads (Google Adwords like)
Contextual ads on twitter search and during
tweeting
Freemium
You have to pay to get “pro” access to Twitter
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 38
Advantages Risks
twitter could engage in a wrong business
model.
twitter would pay all the testing costs to find the appropriate
business model
twitter would acquirea real business
experience.
twitter has high and short-term financialexpectations, twittershould monetize fastto keep VC happy.
When should twitter begin to monetize?1) Now
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 39
Advantages Risks
When should twitter begin to monetize?2) Later
twitter has such a big community, that it could start its monetization by testing various
business models at a small-scale.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 40
What is twitter?
What do people do with twitter?
Why did twitter grow so fast?
What business model for twitter?
Who could challenge twitter?
Conclusion
Summary
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 41
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 42
facebook is a giant compared to Twitter
facebook?The ox that wants to be the frog
350M users approx 20M users
facebook looks more and more like twitter since the acquisition of friendfeed :
facebook wants to go public
+ = ?
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 43
Personal activities
Private real-time information
facebook?twitter competes with facebook on contextual ads, real-time search and CRM
20M users
Business purposes
Public real-time information
Users are more reluctant to have ads on facebook than on twitter.
Tweets have a larger public than facebook updates’.
More information is available on twitter than on facebook, making
real-time search more accurate.
Unless facebook succeeds in becoming public, twitter has a better position.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 44
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 45
• Old news
• Steady content
• The web’s long term
memory
• Page rank
Need twitter’s real time
content
Need access to twitter
firehose to rank tweets
Google?twitter & Google cooperate in the field of real time search
20M users
• Real time news
• Dynamic content
• The web’s short term
memory
• Retweet rank ?
Need Google search
technology & traffic
They reached in October 2009 an agreement to include twitter
content in Google search results
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 46
Google?pushes initiatives towards a fragmented real-time content market...
• Google Wave could become a universal real-time conversation
platform
• Google will index the whole real-time web thanks to PubSubHubHub, a real-
time protocol
• In December 2009 Google struck formal partnership with facebook,
mySpace and twitter to index their live updates
=> The new version of the Google search engine, Caffeine, will emphasize
real-time search results including tweets, blog items, news articles and social
networking updates
...and a monopolistic real-time search market
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 47
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 48
Spam?A threat for Twitter
Tweetomercials Cons
Spammers use Twitter for two purposes :
Though Twitter is making progress on blocking spam (they introduced a “report spam”
function on October), spam could reflect as badly on Twitter as it reflected on Myspace.
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 49
• open source, no character limitation.
• belongs to Google
=> Google didn’t build a large enough community to compete with
Other micro-blogging services ?
For the time being, no other microblogging platform is in position to
compete with twitter : twitter rules them all!
•“Niche” market : enterprise microblogging
• Has a business model
• internal company information
=> Popular but doesn’t directly compete with Twitter
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 50
What is twitter?
What do people do with twitter?
Why did twitter grow so fast?
What business model for twitter?
Who could challenge twitter?
Conclusion
Summary
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 51
Worst case scenario:Twitter may be asphyxiated by competition on all of its potential markets
By willing to maintain a wide-open “pulse of the world”, twitter may be
overwhelmed by businesses grounded in reality
Information
analysisReal-time
protocol
New protocols may
enable broadcasting
quicker, free and
less proprietary real-
time content
Eg : Pubshubhub
protocol as a push-
notification RSS may
offer real-time
broadcast to all
All social networks
foster real-time
status broadcasting,
and compete with
twitter on features
and privacy
Eg : Facebook as a
Twitter based on
real-life social
network
As real-time streams
grow from various
sources, the real
business model may
belong to companies
able to filter the
information.
Eg : Google Caffeine
as a competitor on
real-time search
Companies duplicate
Twitter interface but
specialize efficiently
on vertical markets
Eg : Yammer creates
a B2B Twitter with
specific distribution,
features and
business model
Social
Network
Specialized
Business tool
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 52
Best case scenario:Twitter may become....
Information
analysisReal-time
protocol
Social
Network
Specialized
Business tool
The most trusted
source for real-time
data
The first mode of
communication
between individuals
Robust platform for
analyzing massive
amounts of real time
data and behavior
Ensure customer
satisfaction and
loyalty, while
providing targeted,
geolocalized ads
…a standard of real-time information, data, and communication
between individuals and businesses. Twitter can be the leading
communication platform for commerce and people.
Real time
analytics CRM
E-commerce
Friend
updates
Contact mgmt
Social Search
Media
Geolocation
Services
Real time
feedback
$$$$$$$$
Human
behavior
Data
aggregation
Celebrities
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 53
The Innovation Agency
faberNovel, founded in 2003, specializes in designing and realizing innovative
projects.
Based in Paris and San Francisco, faberNovel builds on emerging technologies,
methodologies or practices to create new products.
faberNovel’s team combines the necessary talents and passion to turn their clients’
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SFR, SNCF, Vinci, etc.
See our strategic studies on:
http://www.fabernovel.com/en/analyze/realisation/strategic-studies-and-surveys
..…….
Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 54
Tracking and sharing innovation : since its beginning in 1978 in Paris, L’Atelier has
been helping executive committee in such fields as innovation and internet strategy.
L'Atelier teams have been actively involved in technology for years, acquiring solid
expertise and an impressive network of contacts. Strategic and operational insights
from L'Atelier experts have earned a reputation for both vision and provocative
thinking. A respected observer of developments in France, L’Atelier opened a San
Francisco office in 2006 and one in Shanghai in 2007.
http://www.atelier.fr | http://www.atelier-us.com | http://asie.atelier.fr
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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 55
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