PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT
EUROPE
R O M A N I A
A R A D T I M I
REPORT 2015 - AURORATM
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 1
Motivation
The idea of this project showed up due to the lack of transparency and information, in general, which we felt in developing our current works, of our lives.
Restricting or limiting the access to information with public character, the unilateral biased presentation of the information becoming public are major barriers in forming
and justifying some opinions and/ or decisions and may have a catastrophic impact for the future projects of the communities or investments.
Vision
All citizens must have access to real information concerning the stage and the
perspectives of communities development they live or where they invest.
Mission
AURORA performs studies, analyses and economic and social prognoses, up to community level, in the benefit of the citizens and of the investors.
What have we done?
Until this year, we have worked only in the WESTERN region of Romania, the counties
of Arad and Timis, area which we present in detail in this Report.
Starting 2016 we intend to expand the AURORA project area of action, in order to
cover also other regions of Romania, Hungary and Serbia, or other areas (applying a specific method of analyse, developed by AURORA), so that our studies and materials could provide a better image on the state and likely evolution of these regions.
In this regard, we wait for your answer to continue these activities we have been performing in your benefit as well. If you are interested in cooperation with AURORA,
reading this report, you may find our contact on the last page.
What do we want?
Performing a proper analyse on the potential of the region development, which allows for
realistic analyses and probable predictions, ensures traceability and a proper justification
of the investments decisions;
Issuing a vision based on research and analyse (and not on opinions). Identifying the
natural trends of evolution (of the society of the market) and of the sources for growth. Direction towards scenarios of economic and area communities growth by increasing the
efficiencies and specific outputs for the transformation processes;
Developing the private, entrepreneurial initiative, in parallel with the development of large
investment in the centres for regional development and of really efficient and fruitful
cooperation with the research Institutes and governments in the area;
Establishing partnerships, associations, clusters and associations of clusters and the know-
how transfer. Associations and services for clusters management, establishment of
mutual, regional development projects;
Balanced growth of the life quality in the regions, considering as important as the
economic aspect, the issues concerning the education, the culture, the environment
protection and preservation, the healthcare and public safety services.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 2
The AURORA Method
We start from the hypothesis that the natural law applies to all fields of its expressions, and
the economic and the social ones are natural systems up to a reasonable limit for study.
Consequently, we consider three major areas, defining the communities status and evolution, respectively the Environment, the
Society and the System of Changes, each area being governed by natural specific laws.
All three systems behave as open systems which win-lose/ exchange energy, material and information between each other.
They are interdependent, and cannot be conceived beyond the flows of materials,
energy and information which occur between them, resulting in the accumulation or loss of their quantities.
A. The Environment will keep its state where it is or will evolve naturally,
uniformly, in the absence of the anthropic interventions.
B. The changes, the movements of the Environment system depend on the
quantities of exploited Resources and on their exploitation intensity and speed.
C. The changes, the movements of an Environment-like subsystem will influence
the subsystems with which they get in contact, just like those subsystems with
which gets in contact will affect the given subsystem.
With regard to the relations and lawfulness according to which the changes of the Social system take place regarding the other two, the Wardrops principles (from the game theory) are adjustable:
1. Each entity (from individual to community) will seek to minimize its costs/
efforts and to maximise its earnings/ effects (competition);
2. If all individuals cooperate (organised community) the average costs / efforts
are minimal and the average earnings/ effects are maximal (cohesion).
In addition, the following are checked in the Social system: A. In invariable external conditions, the Social system tends to a state of balance
in a reasonable timeframe.
B. If the Social system is isolated from other external Social systems, the energies
inside it shall preserve themselves regardless on the internal changes occurred
by the system.
C. Only the more developed and organised Social systems influence those feebly
developed and organised and not the opposite.
D. In the absence of the cultural factors, the systems are in perfect balance.
Consequently, depending on the internal decisions of the Social system, on the chosen ways of organisation, the exchanges with the two other systems may be optimised
and are predictable. Such a local or regional system may be comprised by other wider systems, eventually hierarchically organised.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 3
Contents
PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE ............................................... 4
The Natural Potential ....................................................................................... 4
The Demographic Situation .............................................................................. 9
Economic Sizes ............................................................................................. 12
Conclusion ................................................................................................... 14
PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA .......................................... 15
Socioeconomic levels .................................................................................. 15
The status of the Environment subsystem ........................................................ 17
The Status of the Social Subsystem ................................................................. 21
The status of the Economic subsystem ............................................................. 26
Conclusions .................................................................................................. 29
Brief Presentation WEST Region ............................................................... 31
DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES IN ARAD and TIMIS ..................................... 32
The Status of the Environment Subsystem ....................................................... 32
Status of the Social Subsystem ....................................................................... 35
The Status of the Changes Subsystem ............................................................. 38
Conclusions .................................................................................................. 40
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 4
PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE The Natural Potential The renewable natural potential is in tight connection with the hydrographic network, being much wider in the large rivers areas or there where is present a strong hydrography network. The cultivable areas are distributed especially in the countries
benefiting of natural hydrographic basins or which developed large areas of irrigated land.
These hydrographic networks are a factor of capitalisation for the products from natural resources, of Environment, and their effect is as much stronger in the areas where it was established/ developed also an infrastructure network which to increase
this natural capitalisation factor.
Source: http://www.digitalmaps.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/europe_topographical_blank.jpg
TOTAL PRODUCTIVE AREAS Obviously, as larger the area of a country and the better represented its hydrographic network, the wider will also be the exploitable plots, respectively the flows of capital in
using the Environment potential.
France distinguishes itself as the largest EU Member as use of the areas for
agriculture, followed by Spain and Germany.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 5
In Eastern Europe, Poland and Romania have the largest areas meant for the
agriculture production.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
166.636,00
FIGURE 1 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA AREAS DESIGNED FOR AGRICULTURAL CROPS
PRODUCTIVE LANDS PER CAPITA The population of an area/ country is the determining factor of this index which is to
be correlated with the areas/ countries capacities to provide for the own needs of consume from capitalising the own Environmental potential. The Northern countries, with lower density of the population, are in the position
to present larger productive areas/ person. In the Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece have
the largest productive areas/ person. min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
6,46
FIGURE 2 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA PRODUCTIVE AREAS PER CAPITA
To
tal a
reas d
esig
ned
for a
gric
ultu
ral c
ro
ps
(Ha)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e la
nd are
as,
in
hecta
res, w
ith a
gric
ultu
ral d
estin
atio
n.
Pro
du
ctiv
e a
reas p
er c
ap
ita (H
a/P
ers
)
The in
dex p
resents
the la
nd a
reas, in
hecta
res,
with
agric
ultu
ral
purp
ose,
reporte
d
per c
apita
.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 6
TOTAL IRRIGATED AREAS
Out of the use of this potential, France obtains the largest income, turning the natural potential into the capital, followed by Germany, Italy and Spain.
Amongst the European states, Italy and Spain have the strongest developed network of irrigation, in order to provide for the absence of the fertile lands and of the
hydrographic basins. In the Eastern Europe, only Romania has a more developed network of irrigation (though the irrigated areas have decreased by each year - 1.5 mil Hectares in 1990 to 0.2 mil. Hectares in 2014).
Large works of infrastructures, shaping of the environment have been developed, some of them having already hundreds of years;
Out of the Eastern countries, only Romania is still reporting significant irrigable areas to EuroStat, but decreasing from one year to another.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
3.977.210,00
FIGURE 3 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST VALID AREAS IRRIGATED AREAS
FLOWS OF CAPITAL FROM THE USE OF THE PRODUCTIVE AREAS We notice that, from the East European countries, Poland and Romania succeed to
capitalise their natural potential reaching comparable values with those from the United Kingdom or Netherlands. Nevertheless, these two countries have
Environmental potential much larger than the United Kingdom or Netherlands.
The indexes of quality of the use of the natural potential show us another situation of the efficiency division at European level.
France, Germany, Italy and Spain are the European countries achieving the largest incomes from the primary exploitation of the natural potential;
In the Eastern Europe, Poland and Romania achieve the largest incomes from the direct exploitation of the natural agricultural potential.
To
tal ir
rig
ate
d a
reas (H
a)
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
irrigate
d
are
as,
in hecta
res,
of
the to
tal
agric
ultu
ral
are
as.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 7
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
41.305,50
FIGURE 4 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA INCOMES FROM AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE FOR THE NEEDS OF THE OWN POPULATION FROM THE USE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES
Netherlands and France are the Western European countries with the best capacity to cover for the basic needs of their own populations;
In Eastern Europe, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary have the highest capacities for providing for the needs of their own populations. Germany, Poland, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Northern
countries have more reduced capacities to cover for their own need which are to be compensated by Imports.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
763,47
FIGURE 5 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EURO/CAPITA FROM THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Th
e
inco
mes
resu
lting
fr
om
th
e
cap
italis
atio
n o
f the n
atu
ral p
ote
ntia
l (Euro
)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e in
com
es re
sultin
g
from
the p
roductio
n o
n th
e a
reas w
ith a
gric
ultu
ral
purp
oses.
Th
e
cap
acity
to
u
se
the
ow
n
natu
ral
en
vir
on
men
t fo
r
pro
vid
ing
fo
r
the
necessary
reso
urces
for
the
ow
n
po
pu
latio
n (E
uro
/Pers
)
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
capacity
to
pro
vid
e
for
the
popula
tions
needs
from
th
e
incom
es
obta
ined
from
th
e
use
of
the
Enviro
nm
enta
l pote
ntia
l.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 8
THE INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF THE USE OF THE OWN NATURAL POTENTIAL
The highest efficiency of the use of the areas with agricultural destination occurs in Netherlands.
In the Eastern Europe, Slovenia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary are the countries which start to use more effectively the potential of the areas with
the agricultural destination. There is a large reserve of development potential in this field in the Eastern European countries.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
65.655,24
FIGURE 6 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA /HA OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
TOTAL LIVESTOCK The livestock situation describes quite well also the specificity of the internal consumes of the respective countries. The cattle stock is larger in countries with higher tolerance at lactose, range somehow likely to that of R1b haploid-group.
The EU livestock provide for the populations own needs for consume.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Cattle Swine Sheep
FIGURE 7 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST VALID DATA LIVESTOCK
Th
e in
ten
sity
an
d th
e effic
ien
cy o
f th
e u
se
of th
e p
ro
du
ctiv
e la
nd
s (E
uro
/Ha)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e le
vel
of
incom
es
achie
ved
from
explo
iting
the
Enviro
nm
enta
l
pote
ntia
l, re
porte
d to
th
e are
a w
ith agric
ultu
ral
destin
atio
n.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 9
The Demographic Situation The efficiency of the use of the natural potential creates the premises for the demographic development but the efficiency of the communities organisation and management systems create major differences between the various societies.
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
Consequently, there are large differences between the Northern Europe and the Western and Eastern ones, such as they can be noticed in the Human Development index (Human Development Index - 2015)
0,69
0,72
0,74
0,77
0,79
0,82
0,84
0,87
0,89
0,94
FIGURE 8 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE HDI 2015 REPORT HDI INDEX
General indexes as the population size and its trends, the evolution of the fertility rate
show us how desirable and efficient are the societies forms of organisation and management.
The development of the towns network, the weight of the urban and rural communities in the demographic system of a country have been emphasised in order to create an image on the societies type of development.
THE FERTILITY RATE
The fertility rate, as synthetic index of the citizens satisfaction and of the governments efficiency, is particularly important in defining the social policies pragmatism/ efficiency.
The transition in the countries from the ex-communist block influences negatively this index.
The low fertility rates from Western European countries (Portugal, Spain) are due to improper social programs and lack of economical strenght.
By France, Sweden, Ireland and Iceland (the only one presenting this type of positive rates during the last 20 years), the Western Europe has the highest fertility rates.
Montenegro, Macedonia, the Baltic countries and Bulgaria have the highest fertility rate in the Eastern Europe.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 10
Poland has the lowest fertility rate in the Eastern Europe. The Central and
Southern Europe present the lowest fertility rates. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
FIGURE 9 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA FERTILITY RATE
TOTAL POPULATIONS The developed Western European countries have also populations which contribute and support/ maintain this growth.
As for the populations concentration in urban centres, the development of the towns network, each country developed a different type of model.
Germany, France, United Kingdom and Italy stand out as the most populated European countries; Poland and Romania have the largest populations in Eastern Europe.
8.076.746,30
16.153.492,60
24.230.238,90
32.306.985,20
40.383.731,50
48.460.477,80
56.537.224,10
64.613.970,40
72.690.716,70
80.767.463,00
FIGURE 10 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION
Th
e
natu
ral
increase
of
the
po
pu
latio
n
of
Eu
ro
pean
co
un
trie
s
(Foetu
ses/W
om
an)
This
index p
resents
the n
um
ber o
f
new
-born
reporte
d to
wom
ens
num
ber in
a p
opula
tion.
Th
e
po
pu
latio
ns
of
the
Eu
ro
pean
co
un
trie
s (P
ers
)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e popula
tion
tota
l, as n
um
ber o
f pers
ons.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 11
THE WEIGHT OF THE URBAN CENTRES IN POPULATIONS TOTAL The various cultural models of the European states led to various types of territorial development, to various approaches of the relation with the environment and its
potential, especially considering the security limitations it imposes.
Consequently, some states developed predominantly small, semi-urban and rural
communities, especially in the most vulnerable European areas.
Strong development and geographic limitations render the United Kingdom into the most urbanised European country.
France, Portugal, Cyprus, Netherlands and Finland have large populations in urban centres.
The Baltic countries, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Greece are the most urbanised states of the Eastern Europe.
0,07
0,14
0,21
0,28
0,35
0,43
0,50
0,57
0,64
0,71
FIGURE 11 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA LARGE URBAN CENTRES
THE WEIGHT OF THE SMALL AND RURAL COMMUNITIES IN THE POPULATIONS TOTAL It can be noticed a delimitation of the Western Europe by much smaller values of the populations weight in small or rural areas. We have the highest figures of the small and rural urban communities weight in populations total in the Central and Eastern Europe.
Larg
e u
rb
an
cen
tres (%
Popula
tion)
The in
dex p
resents
the ra
tio b
etw
een
the
popula
tions
from
la
rge
urb
an
centre
s
and th
e to
tal p
opula
tion.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 12
0,08
0,16
0,24
0,32
0,40
0,49
0,57
0,65
0,73
0,81
FIGURE 12 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA SMALL COMMUNITIES
Economic Sizes The volumes of the European economies vary a lot from one State to another, both in volume and dynamics. The large European economies (Germany, France, the United
Kingdom and Italy) generate larger volumes compared to the economies of the Eastern European countries.
However, the rates of growth and development are much higher in the small European economies.
Economically, at European level, we present only two indicators (GDP and GDP rate)
which are correlated with the potential and social indexes.
THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT The economic volumes show a clear leading position for the four Western European powers, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy, followed quite far by Spain.
These are the countries which form the European economic engine and generate the economic development.
Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands, Belgium and Poland form the group of the average European economies which also contribute (less than the group of first 5), to
the community economic development.
Finally, the group of the countries with smaller contributions to the community economic growth is formed by Norway, Finland, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Romania,
Hungary and Czech Republic.
Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy are the strongest economies in
the Western Europe. Poland, followed by Greece, Romania, Czech Republic and Hungary, has the most developed economy in the Eastern Europe.
Th
e
weig
ht
of
the
sm
all
tow
ns
an
d
ru
ral c
om
mu
nitie
s (%
of th
e p
opula
tions
to
tal)
The
index
is
giv
en
by
the
ratio
betw
een
the
popula
tions
tota
l num
ber
in
sm
all
urb
an centre
s and ru
ral
com
munitie
s
reporte
d to
the p
opula
tions
tota
l.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 13
29.156,50
87.469,50
160.360,75
257.549,08
403.331,58
694.896,58
986.461,58
1.278.026,58
1.569.591,58
2.915.650,00
FIGURE 13 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA GDP, MIL EURO
THE GDP RATE
On the free development potential, noticeable by the GDP growth, the situation at EU level is different. The much higher growth rate from the Eastern Europe show up in countries where there are large potentials of Environment, but also of Change, which
are not used and lead to economic growth.
The Western Europe, except for Iceland, has average/ small growth rates.
The highest values of the GDP rates are in the Eastern Europe, particularly in the Baltic and Balkan countries. Romania is a country of average (European) level with a significant growth rate.
-5,90
-4,88
-3,86
-2,84
-1,82
-0,80
0,22
1,24
2,26
4,30
FIGURE 14 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA GDP RATE
GD
P (M
il Euro
)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e valu
e cre
ate
d
and/ o
r consum
ed/ a
llow
ed in
a s
ocie
ty d
urin
g
1 y
ear, e
xpre
ssed in
Euro
.
GD
P r
ate
(% o
f the p
revio
us G
DP)
This
ra
te
hig
hlig
hts
th
e
change
(in
gro
wth
or th
e d
ecre
ase) o
f the G
DP, fro
m o
ne
year o
r anoth
er.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 14
Conclusion The EU policy of knowledge-based development as renewable and unlimited
resource led to the development of some strong economies in the Western Europe where there are most of the European research centres.
The results of the European research can be found in the technologies implemented in the changing processes, especially in the Western Europe but, via their incorporation in equipment and machinery, also in the East European countries, where
the development is predominantly copied, used (via its results), and not generated.
Nevertheless, the East European countries have a huge tank of unused natural potential which, combined with the research results at EU level (comprised in
technologies, equipment and machinery of European origin) leaving space for strong growth rates, including
economical ones. (Fig. 4 on the side)
This situation is revealed also by the much lowest intensity in the use of the natural potential in East
European countries.
The reverse of this situation is given by the fact that
the East European countries accede directly to the new technologies and develop activities in fields like IT&C, even if they do not capitalise their free natural potential.
The populations have much higher fertility rates in the
Western Europe, especially in France and in the North-Western countries and as size the largest European
populations can be found in the most developed economies (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy). (Fig. 9 reproduced aside)
Traditionally, the patterns of economic growth need larger populations for higher results. In these systems, the
technologies may compensate part of the needs for labour force but, mostly, they ensure the investors against various risks associated to the Environment and/ or Social.
The Eastern Europe registers negative fertility rates and a de-population process due to the freedom of movement in the community area, the citizens from this area
preferring to migrate to more economically developed countries.
As their consequence, we find the highest values of
economic size in the Western Europe, while the highest growth rates can be found in the Eastern Europe. (Fig. 14
reproduced aside)
The Western Europe developed a solid growth model,
based on technological and production capacities also requiring large populations, while the Eastern Europe (the Balkan model and strictly Eastern- not Central European)
does not take into consideration, at the same level, the potential given by the population, but it capitalises the
advantages of the access on markets of the high technologies, even neglecting the existing natural potentials.
min2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
41.305,50
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-5,90-4,88
-3,86
-2,84
-1,82
-0,80
0,22
1,24
2,26
4,30
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 15
PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA Romania has its own development hierarchy, both territorially and demographically
and economically.
The municipality of Bucharest has a population of approximately 2 mil. persons, which
is about 10% of the countrys population. The capital generates a gross income of 111 billion euro annually which is about 38% of the total of the national Gross Income.
Of the 111 billion achieved in Bucharest, 48.5 billion are in District 1 of the Capital,
which means 44% of it.
Socioeconomic levels Level 1 The Capital and the Ilfov County, with of population of 10%, generates 38% of the Romanian Gross Income and constitutes which we call level 1 of development.
Level 2 The traditional regional capitals (Iai, Constana, Craiova, Cluj and Timioara) owe 8% weight of the population total but produce only 11% of the Gross Income, as the capitals of Moldavia and Oltenia are far behind other county capitals, aspiring to the
level of regional capital (Piteti, Braov, Ploieti, Sibiu, Oradea, Arad, Trgu Mure). Level 3 This re-arrangement on economic criteria makes the rest of the county capitals to
have a value of the Gross Income higher than the population weight. Level 4
Small urban localities have a weight of 25% of the population and produce 18% of the Gross Income, which proves the same phenomenon of capitals concentration and of reporting premises to more developed urban centres.
Level 5 As expected, the rural localities, comprising 37% of the population, generate only
11% of the Gross Income, generally from agricultural business or of primary exploitation of the resources, without large technological investments. Such things happen because the incomes accomplished by companies at national
level, are accounted where they have their premises, and most of them have their premises in District 1 of the Capital. It happens similarly to regional and/ or county
levels. Only Hunedoara County has developed a towns networks with a higher ratio of the population compared to their municipality and the rural environment.
The level 5 predominance occurs in areas with high landscape or in the Danube riparian areas.
The level of each County, respectively Capital District is presented in the map, according to the above. The green areas have a higher level of urbanisation and
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 16
Th
e u
rb
an
isatio
n le
vel
The
map
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een th
e urb
an popula
tion and th
e
rura
l one, a
t county
level.
regional concentration while the red ones are predominantly rural. The
District 1 of the Capital is the only one of level 1.
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
FIGURE 15 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, ORC, MAPI, LAST AVAILABLE DATA THE PREDOMINANCE OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LEVELS
The fiscal system in Romania, compared to the other 28 European states is an average one, with a sole ratio of 16% both for profit and for dividends (since 2016 it will decrease at 5%), in case of repatriating the profits. Comparatively, the system in
Hungary has higher fiscal values and that from Serbia is more loosen than the Romanian one.
The low value of the wages may be attractive. In Romania, the minimum gross wage is of 1,050 RON (1050 / 4,5 = 233 euro) and a gross average wage is of 2,400 RON (2,400 / 4.5 = 533 euro). For expenses with the employees, the employers pay
supplementary to those a cumulated quota (composed of several taxes, contributions) of 38.15 %.
The capital is divided in sectors, with populations compared to those in the counties. The largest urban populations are in Cluj and Constanta counties, which also
have urban centres being regional capital and a developed network of urban localities. The counties of Timi, Iai and Dolj, especially, in the absence of a developed urban network, have a weaker ranking.
Significant increase of the urbanisation is in the counties of Braov and Prahova, large county centres and strong urban networks.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
FIGURE 16 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, ORC, MAPI, LAST AVAILABLE DATA URBANISATION LEVELS
Th
e
pred
om
inan
ce
of
the
so
cio
-
eco
no
mic
levels
The m
ap pre
sents
th
e geogra
phic
al
dis
tributio
n,
in th
e te
rritory
, of
the 5 le
vels
of d
evelo
pm
ent.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 17
The status of the Environment subsystem The main agricultural areas are in the Southern (Romanian) Plain, in the basins of Olt
and Jiu, and in Moldavia, in the basins of Siret and Prut.
The Western Field, with the basin of Mures and the Crises, is not very well represented, the county having hilly and forestry areas quite large, and also unused
areas.
TOTAL PRODUCTIVE AREAS
The areas with high agricultural potential are also the lowest developed (Southern and North-Eastern Areas) the main reason for phenomenon being the lack of infrastructure (transport and processing altogether) and of connection with the specific market for
the products resulting from the Environment. Due to the natural limitations and to the urbanisation and development levels
we have different quotas for the productive agricultural areas, mostly concentrate in South and East.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
300.829
479
FIGURE 17 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA AREAS ASSIGNED FOR AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
TOTAL IRRIGATED AREAS The geopolitical borders limit the access from the WESTERN area to the Tisa route
(river which might collect naturally the Environment products in this area, on the way down to Danube, and from there, upstream to the Northern harbours or downstream to Constana). From these reason, the capitalisation index of the Environment potential of this region is limited. The other geopolitical borders (the Southern and Eastern ones) allow the access to
navigable ways which could corridors for collecting the Environment products, implicitly the associated capitalisation potential being higher. In the absence of the access to the navigable Tisa way, the effects of the irrigated
areas in the WESTERN area are capitalised by the impact of the road infrastructure (highway with connection to the European highway system) and, those from the
Southern and Eastern areas might be efficiently capitalised by the use of the Danube navigable routes (the river transportation is up to 20 times cheaper than the road one).
The main irrigated areas are in the final sector of the Danube, followed by those from the Prut basin.
The Arad and Timis counties are an exception as they developed a channels network.
Th
e to
tal a
reas m
ean
t for
ag
ric
ultu
ral a
ctiv
ities (H
a)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e to
tal
of
the
are
as,
in
hecta
res,
desig
nate
d
to
agric
ultu
re.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 18
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
138.170
0
FIGURE 18 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA IRRIGATED AREAS
CAPITAL FLOW FROM THE USE OF THE PRODUCTIVE AREAS Due to the integration of the agricultural production (processing, raising livestock,
etc.), there are large flows of capital in the WEST region from using the Environmental potential.
Due to the lack of infrastructure and to a weaker capacity of processing, in the areas with large potential from East and South, the capital flow from using the Environment potential is lower.
Though, the South and North-East regions hold larger agriculture areas and more developed irrigation networks, they do not succeed to capitalise, to turn into income
these natural and infrastructure potentials. The main Western centres, the counties of Timis, Arad and Bihor succeed the best to turn into capital the agricultural products, and this happens in Suceava, Iasi
and Botosani in North-East;
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
75.456.349
2.244.037
FIGURE 19 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE EUROSTAT, LAST AVAILABLE DATA INCOMES FROM AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONS
To
tal ir
rig
ate
d a
reas (H
a)
The
index
pre
sents
are
as
equip
ped
with
sew
era
ge
and/
or
irrigate
d p
ipes s
yste
m a
t county
level.
Th
e in
co
me resu
lting
fr
om
p
rim
ary
cap
italis
ing
th
e
natu
ral
po
ten
tial
(Euro
from
the a
gric
ultu
ral p
roductio
n)
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
incom
e
achie
ved
from
explo
iting
the
natu
ral
Enviro
nm
enta
l pro
ductio
n.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 19
THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE FOR THE OWN POPULATIONS NEEDS FROM USING THE ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES Capitalising the natural Environmental potential from the agricultural products has as
purpose to provide for the populations food safety and for ensuring the basis for the future demographic development.
The Southern counties, in the vicinity of the Capital, due to their attraction to it and as result of the depopulation, as well as due to the large agriculture areas, may provide more easily for the populations use.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
1.859
12
FIGURE 20 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EURO/CAPITA OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
THE INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF THE USE OF THE OWN NATURAL POTENTIAL The efficiency of the natural potential use distinguished areas with higher efficiencies
and larger productions, especially in the WESTERN area (Arad and Timi), Braov and in the final sector of Danube. We can notice in most of the territory a smaller intensity in using the natural potential
and a lower efficiency. The intensity of the potential use is higher in the West (Timis and Arad), in
Centre (Brasov) and in South-East (Constanta, Calarasi, Ialomita and Braila).
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
35.507
684
FIGURE 21 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EURO/HA OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Th
e
cap
acity
to
u
se
the
ow
n
en
vir
on
men
t to
p
ro
vid
e
for
the
reso
urces
need
ed
fo
r
the
ow
n
po
pu
latio
n (E
uro
/Capita
)
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
incom
es
resulte
d
from
th
e
capita
lisatio
n of
the Enviro
nm
ent
pote
ntia
l
and th
e n
um
ber o
f pers
ons.
Th
e in
ten
sity
an
d e
fficie
ncy in
usin
g
the p
ro
du
ctiv
e la
nd
s (E
uro
/Ha)
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
incom
e
achie
ved
from
capita
lisin
g
the
Enviro
nm
enta
l pote
ntia
l
and th
e exis
ting are
as fo
r th
is.
It is
an
index of
inte
nsity
and effic
iency in
th
e
land u
se.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 20
TOTAL LIVESTOCK The livestock decreased a lot compared to the historic landmark of the livestock populations in 1989/ 1990, which lead to an expansion of the sheep breeders to the
free areas which prior had large cattle and swine populations. Breeding large animals (cattle, horses) which were traditional in the hill areas
reduced significantly currently only the Northern, North-Eastern areas presenting significant numbers. The swine breeding remained developed only in Timis County (this county
having larger stocks than the entire South-Eastern Development Region). The sheep stock migrated from the hilly region of the Carpathians to the plain areas, the only county with traditionally large numbers still being Sibiu.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
212
159.550
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
30
640.247
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
1.066
571.545
Cattle Swine Sheep
FIGURE 22 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA LIVESTOCK NUMBERS
Liv
esto
ck p
op
ula
tion
s
There
are
pre
sente
d
the
livesto
ck
popula
tion,
on
type o
f bre
edin
g.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 21
The Status of the Social Subsystem POPULATION
The population increase or reduction is a strong synthetic indicator on the living condition. We have two categories of regions with
populations growth in Romania, those from Moldavia (Iai, Suceava, Vaslui) and those from counties which are regional centres (Timi, Constana). At Capitals level, we have continuous decrease in populations number, after 1994, and only in the first years after 1990 there was an increase in the population. (fig. 23)
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Evolutia populatiei pe regiuni
Nord - Vest / North - West Centru / Center Nord - Est / North - East Sud - Est / South - East Sud - Muntenia / South - Muntenia Bucureti - Ilfov / Bucharest - Ilfov Sud - Vest Oltenia / South - West Oltenia Vest / West
FIGURE 23 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS
Starting from a predominantly rural population by the end of the Second World War, Romania strongly urbanised itself, sometimes wildly, until 1990. 1985 is the year of balance, starting which the urban population is higher than the rural one. After 1990 the total populations decline is starting, keeping the majority of the urban population, the difference between urban and rural remaining relatively constant after 2005. (fig. 24)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Evolutia populatie -
Urban Rural FIGURE 24 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS ON ENVIRONMENT
Populations Evolution
Populations Evolution on Regions
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 22
The urbanisation process was accompanied by the industrialisation one until 1990, which needed larger populations in the urban centres,
where the industrial capacities have been located. The larger in numbers generations, born during 1968-1969, are already 46-47 years old in 2015. The generations born during the last 23
years are much smaller in number. The last 20 years trend is of increase in the active population and in that over this age, with the reduction in the number of young and very young populations. Since 2009 the young population (6-18 years old) is inferior in number to
that over the active age (65 years old and more). (fig. 25)
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
1968 1969 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Evolutia populatiei pe categorii de varsta
0-5 6-18 19-65 66-100 FIGURE 25 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS BY AGE
The populations increase, especially the active one, that took place until 1990, is due to some specific terms. The entire population had been captive inside the state borders, not being the possibility for migration. The effects of the sexual revolution of the 70s were very slightly visible in the populations social behaviour, the means for contraception being very limited and even risky. This situation of the general decrease of population number and, mostly of the young age groups, after 1990, is also explained by the changes in the fertility rate. Until the 1967 peak, we can notice a trend of reduction of the fertility rate which continues afterwards. After
1990, the fertility rate stabilises around 1.2. (fig. 26)
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
Rata fertilitatii
FIGURE 26 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS FERTILITY RATE
Populations Evolution on Age Category
Fertility Rate
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 23
Th
e e
mp
loym
en
t rate
- Co
un
ties
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e ra
tio
betw
een
the
effe
ctiv
ely
em
plo
yed
popula
tion
and
the
age-a
ctiv
e
popula
tion,
with
w
ork
capacity
, at
county
level.
Em
plo
ym
en
t rate
C
ou
nty
Cap
itals
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
effe
ctiv
ely
em
plo
yed
popula
tion
and
the
activ
e-a
ge
popula
tion,
able
to
w
ork
, at
the le
vel
of c
ounty
capita
ls.
THE EMPLOYMENT RATES OF THE ACTIVE POPULATION: The employment rate was preferred to the unemployment one, which may omit the unoccupied persons who are not registered (unoccupied persons, persons who do not
receive unemployment aid, persons not registered and persons who migrated economically but are still reported with the domicile in the country). In this regard, the employment rate was calculated as ratio of the employment persons compared to
the total active population, on genders and environments (urban rural).
Total on Counties Higher occupancy values can be notices in several counties which we observe more
carefully in the report. The capital and the Ilfov County have the highest occupancy rate of the active
population. The counties of Sibiu, Timi, Cluj, Braov and Prahova have higher employment rates of the active population.
Mainly, the orientation of the higher employment rates of the active population is from centre to the West- North-West.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,000
0,745
FIGURE 27 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EMPLOYMENT RATES 1
County Capitals The highest values are in the Capital, but they are very close to those from Timi, Sibiu, Cluj and Braov Counties. The Arad County is very close to the Timi County in the Western area, continuing the West, North-West line of the counties with rates
around 30 %.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,000
0,368
FIGURE 28 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EMPLOYMENT RATES 2
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 24
Th
e em
plo
ym
en
t rate
in
th
e u
rb
an
en
vir
on
men
t
excep
ting
fo
r
the
cap
itals
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
effe
ctiv
ely
em
plo
yed
popula
tion
and
the
age-a
ctiv
e
popula
tion,
able
to
w
ork
, at
urb
an
localitie
s le
vel, e
xceptin
g fo
r the c
ounty
capita
ls.
Th
e
em
plo
ym
en
t rate
in
th
e
ru
ral a
rea
The in
dex p
resents
the ra
tio
betw
een
the
effe
ctiv
ely
em
plo
yed
popula
tion
and
the
activ
e
age
popula
tion,
able
to
w
ork
, at
rura
l
localitie
s le
vel.
The urban environment, excepting for the county capitals The Ilfov County is the most urbanised one, being also in the vicinity of the
Capital, reason for which it also presents the highest employment rates of the active population. We have low employment rates in the rural environment, in the WESTERN
region, excluding the capital, with values about 10%.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,000
0,444
FIGURE 29 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EMPLOYMENT RATES 3
The rural environment We have the lowest employment rates of the active population in the rural environment, with values below 5%, the only exception being the Ilfov County.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,000
0,145
FIGURE 30 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA EMPLOYMENT RATES 4
POTENTIAL OF UNEMPLOYED ACTIVE POPULATION: Only District 1 of the Capital has a (large) deficit of active population.
We have large numbers of active, unemployed populations in the North-East and South-East areas.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 25
Activ
e u
nem
plo
yed
po
pu
latio
n
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
unem
plo
yed
popula
tion
and th
e activ
e-a
ge popula
tion,
able
to
work
, at c
ountie
s le
vel.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
-283.703,418
273.774,000
FIGURE 31 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATIONS ON ENVIRONMENTS
Under such terms of the active populations employment, the values of the annual salary incomes, in Euro, are presented below.
GROSS AVERAGE SALARY INCOMES This index confirms also the particular situation of the Capital District 1, where the
average salaries value is more than 12,000 Euro/ year. The map presents numbers up to 8,000 euro/capita, which is at the normal
functioning border of a democratic society. Excepting for the Capital and the Ilfov County, we notice high levels of the salaries in the Sibiu and Gorj counties.
The situation of the Timis and Cluj regional capitals is normal. A particular situation is in the Arad and Arges counties (the Renault plants)
which go over their level. In addition, regional capitals like Iasi, Dolj and Constana are below their level.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
7.859,19
FIGURE 32 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA SALARIES
Averag
e s
ala
ry in
co
mes
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
tota
l am
ounts
fo
r th
e
sala
ries
paym
ent
(in
the
public
and
priv
ate
enviro
nm
ents
) and
the
tota
l
activ
e a
ge p
opula
tion.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 26
The status of the Economic subsystem The values of the Gross Income in Euro (calculated as sum of the public and private
incomes) present a concentration of the highest levels in the Capital and in the neighbouring county, Ilfov. District 1 of the Capital has values much higher than the
others, with over 200,000 euro/capita. At their turn, the Capital districts have values of the GI around 50,000 euro/capita. However, the main issue is the low level (below 8,000 Euro/capita) of this indicator in
several counties of the country.
GROSS INCOMES We have calculated this index as sum of the incomes achieved at community/ reporting levels, comprising both public and declared incomes (business turnovers).
The maxim representation limit is of 8,000 Euro/ capita, considered as minimal level for a functional democratic society. The incomes polarisation at Capitals level is obvious, as result of a centralised development model, heir of the decision-make model before 1990. At counties levels, we notice a significant development in the counties of Sibiu
(based on the investment capitals, predominantly foreign) and Arges (premises of the Renault factories). The major risks remain for the North-East, East, South, South-West areas.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
2.863,32
8.000,00
FIGURE 33 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA GROSS INCOMES (GI)
THE WEIGHT OF TURNOVER IN TOTAL GROSS INCOMES The index weighs the contribution of the private business environment in the total of Gross Incomes at county level (the analyse can be sent further up to community
level). For this index, again the Capital, the Ilfov County and the counties of Sibiu and Arges have particular rankings.
Here, we notice a geographically connected area (Timi, Arad, Bihor, Cluj, Mure, Braov, Prahova) with large development potential and with high business levels.
Gro
ss in
co
me (E
uro
/Capita
)
The in
dex p
resents
the s
um
of
all
incom
es
(priv
ate
and
public
)
achie
ved at
county
le
vel,
reporte
d to
the p
opula
tion.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 27
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,81
0,98
FIGURE 34 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA BUSINESS TURNOVER IN GI
THE TURNOVER DISTRIBUTION ON COUNTIES Except for the counties of Alba, Arge, Harghita and Hunedoara (the capital of the Ilfov County is the state capital, all counties present a phenomenon of centralisation of the economic activities in the County capital.
0 10.000.000 20.000.000 30.000.000 40.000.000 50.000.000 60.000.000
Alba
Arad
Arges
Bacau
Bihor
BistritaNasaud
Botosani
Braila
Brasov
Bucuresti
Buzau
Calarasi
CarasSeverin
Cluj
Constanta
Covasna
Dambovita
Dolj
Galati
Giurgiu
Gorj
Harghita
Hunedoara
Ialomita
Iasi
Ilfov
Maramures
Mehedinti
Mures
Neamt
Olt
Prahova
Salaj
SatuMare
Sibiu
Suceava
Teleorman
Timis
Tulcea
Valcea
Vaslui
Vrancea
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
Sector 4
Sector 5
Sector 6
Venituri brute pe medii de locuire - Mii Euro
Resedinte Orase Comune
FIGURE 35 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA TURNOVER DISTRIBUTION ON COUNTIES - RON
Th
e
weig
ht
of
the
bu
sin
ess
turn
over (
%)
The in
dex re
pre
sents
th
e ra
tio
betw
een th
e in
com
es achie
ved in
th
e
priv
ate
enviro
nm
ent
and th
e to
tal
of
gro
ss in
com
es a
t county
level.
Tu
rn
over d
istr
ibu
tion
on
Co
un
ties
The gra
ph re
pre
sents
th
e dis
tributio
n of
the in
com
es achie
ved by th
e priv
ate
enviro
nm
ent o
n c
apita
l enviro
nm
ents
and c
ountie
s.
Gross income on habitation environment Thousands of Euro
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 28
TURNOVER DISTRIBUTION ON HABITATION ENVIRONMENTS The Capital concentrates about one third of the total turnover at national level.
The counties capitals concentrate about have of the Counties Turnovers, but they do not equal the Capital.
0 200.000.000.000 400.000.000.000 600.000.000.000 800.000.000.000
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector 3
Sector 4
Sector 5
Sector 6
Bucuresti
Resedinte
Orase
Rural
Urban
Judete
CIfra de Afaceri pe Medii
FIGURE 36 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE ONRC, LAST AVAILABLE DATA TURNOVER ON ENVIRONMENTS - RON
Tu
rn
over d
istr
ibu
tion
on
hab
itatio
n
en
vir
on
men
ts
The gra
ph pre
sents
a synth
esis
of
the
turn
over
dis
tributio
n
on
habita
tion e
nviro
nm
ents
Turnover on Environments
Counties
Urban
Rural
Towns
County capitals
Bucharest
District 6
District 5
District 4
District 3
District 2
District 1
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 29
Conclusions Romania has a huge natural, agricultural potential in the areas of the basins of
Danube, Prut and Siret. Though the Danube is navigable, the collection of products resulting from the use of the Environment potential is not efficient, facts leading to a
low capitalisation. (fig. 17 reproduced asides) The productions are low in the Danube upstream and
in the downstream Romanian sector, the productions are
average and, in the lack of an efficient capitalisation system (the transport infrastructure, storage capacities,
conditioning and access on the markets) have an average degree of capitalisation.
The lack of a collection, transport, storage, conditioning and opening system leads to the producers insecurity, the use of a bad road infrastructure for shipment, with much higher costs and in bad shipment
conditions, and, eventually, to the loss of substantial incomes. The situation is even worst in the basin of Prut and Siret.
From these reasons, the agriculture productions have much higher capitalisation values in the basin of Mures, Cris and in the Western Plain, though this area potential
is much lower. (fig. 19 reproduced aside) The productions are better integrated in the WESTERN
area (area with the highest swine livestock) and the local infrastructure, though only road infrastructure, allows for a better capitalisation. Not lately, the
proximity and the direct connections with the European market contribute to the increase of this capitalisation factor in this area.
In opposition, the areas from N-E and S, S-E remain poor, just because to the incapacity of capitalisation of the existing natural potential, but also to the incapacities to
develop significantly other sources of income from other industries or activities. (fig. 33 reproduced aside)
The regions where there is the highest agricultural potential are also the lowest developed because the national strategies and policies of development change by each government in
Romania and, sometimes, several times during the same government, and the use of the free Environment potential is not a national priority.
The efficiency of the use of the environment potential at national level is very low and the capital flows from using it are very low.
The fertility rate at national level indicates the 1.2 benchmark from a population
which can no longer come back or increase. Thus, the only solution for a demographic growth may be an infusion of population/ populations, supported by reliable public
policies in this regard. Ensuring better living conditions for the next generations must be subject to
national strategies in the field.
The pressure of this demographic situation is emphasised also by the low employment rates. We have in the urban environment (small towns) and in the rural
one we have particularly low employment rates (below 10%). The N-E and S-W areas distinguish themselves as having the lowest employment rates.
The disproportionate economic development of the Capital compared to the rest of the territory and of the county capitals compared to the counties lead to demographic
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
2.863,32
8.000,00
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
300.829
479
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
75.456.349
2.244.037
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 30
and economic concentrations in these urban poles, highlighting the depopulation of rural environment and of the urban one of the small towns.
Only 14 counties and the 6 districts of the Capital present a gross income per capita over the minimal limit of normality of 8,000 euro/capita. Nor in the counties situation, this index is not finally relevant, the values concentrations being achieved in the
county capitals and partly in the urban environment, as well as in the rural environment adjacent to the capitals or to significant urban centres.
The rest of 27 counties present high social and economic risks. We observe a development model starting from the Western areas of Romania and continuing through the central areas up to the Capital.
We notice a platoon of 16 counties where the most performant indexes show up, both for Environment, and Social potential use or of the Changes system ones.
For these reasons, the area of these 16 counties is the most recommended destination for the new investments and the intended area for particular development of the
national infrastructure networks. Calculating the ranking for all counties of Romania,
based on the defined indexes, also used in the report, we have the following situation highlighting and defining the above.
The report continues with an in-depth analyse, at community level, of the two counties from the WEST region which are among the
most performing in Romania and, for the time being, the only ones connected to the European highway system Arad and Timis.
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
0,24
10,00
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 31
Brief Presentation WEST Region The WEST development region is the main entry area to
Romania, both by road (corridor IV entering the country via Nadlac, connecting at this time Arad and Timisoara to the
EU highway system) and railway one, the main access being made via Curtici - Arad, the ulterior shipment channels following the southern route to Sofia and Istanbul,
through Timisoara and Drobeta Turnu Severin, or the central route, to Bucharest and the Constanta Harbour,
through Deva-Brasov-Bucharest. The Highway A1 also makes the connection with the airports from Timisoara and Arad, and the highway A4 (part
of the North-South European corridor) is connected to it. The Arad Szeged distance is of 80 Km and the Arad Budapest one is of 270Km. The distance to Vienna is of 500 Km. The distance between Arad and Timisoara (i.e. between the closest exits on the
highway) is of 30 Km. The distance from
Timisoara to Belgrade is of 151 Km and to Sofia is of 502 Km.
The population of the two urban centres, Timisoara (312,000 persons) and Arad (165,000 persons) cumulates 477,000
persons without taking into account the population in the localities between the two
of them. Taking into account the populations from the
localities neighbouring the two urban centres, we have a cumulated population of 710,000 persons. thus, the polarisation and development axis (Arad Timisoara) may become a major urban agglomeration in the region comparable to Budapest (1,728,000
persons) or Belgrade (1,339,000 persons), reaching the European ranking of urban centre (from 1,000,000 persons).
The growth rhythms in this area are very high and there are localities with mixt
ethnicity in most of the territory from this area, some of them established or even populated by German, Hungarian, Serbian,
Croatian, Bulgarian ethnics etc. The region developed the system of
localities and a specific organisation during an Austro-Hungarian Empire project and still maintains a distinct specificity due to
the illuminist influences of the Europe.
Timisoara -Arad Polarization Axis
Density
inhabitant/ sqkm (2011)
LEGEND
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 32
DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVES IN ARAD and TIMIS The Status of the Environment Subsystem PRODUCTIVE AREAS PER INHABITANT The situation of the agricultural, horticultural, winery lands in Arad and Timis counties,
per inhabitant is presented below.
The plots availability is higher in hilly, less populated areas.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
32,16
FIGURE 37 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 1
CAPITAL FLOWS FROM THE USE OF THE PRODUCTIVE AREAS The values for this index have been calculated according to the effective production
resulted from the use of the areas.
The index is calculated by summing up the production achieved at community level by the use of the Environment Resources (and not from the Change processes industrials, services, financial-banking, etc.). The amounts reaching effective results are represented, results attached to the environment criteria (agriculture, horticulture,
wine production).
The traditional areas for wine production present the highest levels of income from using the Environment.
The town of Recas capitalises its winery potential and gets the highest income from using the Environment, followed by the town of Lipova and the community of
Siria, both with wine production specificity.
Lan
ds p
er in
hab
itan
t
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
re
sultin
g
from
th
e
agric
ultu
re
are
as
and
the
com
munity
resid
ent p
opula
tion.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 33
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
6.341.159,94
FIGURE 38 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 2
THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE FOR THE POPULATIONS NEEDS FROM THE ENVIRONMENT RESOURCES The hilly areas, with wine production specificity and the plain areas with higher
production distinguish themselves as being the most performant in providing for the own needs from the existing Environment resources. The amounts obtained as income
from the Environment potential capitalisation are not higher than 2,150 Euro/Capita. The localities with the highest income from Environment resources exploitation are Reca, Lipova, Siria, Jamu Mare, Dudestii Vechi and Pancota. Especially the small localities with small population are performant in this regard.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
2.149,64
FIGURE 39 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 3
In
co
me ach
ieved
fr
om
p
rim
ary cap
italis
atio
n
of
the n
atu
ral
po
ten
tial
(Euro
fro
m agric
ultu
ral
pro
ductio
n)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e in
com
e achie
ved by
explo
iting th
e E
nviro
nm
ent p
ote
ntia
l, at c
om
munity
level.
Cap
acity
to p
rovid
e fo
r po
pu
latio
ns
need
s
fro
m
the
En
vir
on
men
t reso
urces
(Eu
ro
/C
ap
ita)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e ra
tio betw
een
the
achie
ved
incom
e
from
th
e
Enviro
nm
ent
pote
ntia
l capita
lisatio
n
and
the
com
munitie
s
popula
tions.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 34
THE INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF THE ENVIRONMENT POTENTIAL USE The systems for collecting and conditioning the productions represent the main
limitation of the Environment production. Another limitation is given by the sporadic use of the irrigation systems and on much smaller areas than the potential ones (there is a pipes system not used at its capacity).
We have as positive factors a quite good compacting of the properties, the use of genetically performant materials and a support (subventions) systems of the
agriculture production. Generally, the Environment given potential is not used efficiently, and there are only few exceptions in this regard.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,01
1,70
FIGURE 40 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 4
TOTAL LIVESTOCK We have currently quite low levels of livestock in the hilly areas where livestock
breeding was traditional due to the absence of a guaranteed collecting system for the products of animal origin. Higher numbers show up in the plain area, particularly in
livestock breeding farms (for cattle and swine). Breeding large animals (cattle, horses) traditional for the hilly areas knew a powerful reduction, currently the hilly grassland not being used at their potential;
The swine breeding is well represented in some specialised centres, for the rest of the territory there is livestock only in the populations households; We have large sheep populations in the plain areas, as proof for this activity change.
Cattle Swine Sheep
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
4.192,00
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
45.060,00
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
12.610,00
FIGURE 41 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA LIVESTOCK
Livestock The livestock is presented on species and communities.
Th
e in
ten
sity
an
d th
e effic
ien
cy of
the
En
vir
on
men
tal
po
ten
tial
use
(Eu
ro
/H
a)
The
index
pre
sents
th
e
ratio
betw
een
the
achie
ved
incom
e
from
capita
lisin
g
the
Enviro
nm
ent
pote
ntia
l
and th
e u
sed a
rea in
this
purp
ose.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 35
Status of the Social Subsystem The population in the two counties lived big historical fluctuations which were felt both in the urban environment and in the rural one. However, in time, the urban
environment strengthened and is far above the rural populations.
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
1948 1956 1966 1977 1992 2002 2011 2015
Evolutia populatiei totale
ARAD TIMIS
FIGURE 42 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION
The urban and rural populations have opposite evolutions in this general situation of the populations evolution. Major concentration of the population shows up in the two capitals (Arad and Timisoara) and in their neighbouring areas.
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
1948 1956 1966 1977 1992 2002 2011 2015
Evolutia populatiei urbane
Arad Timis
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
1948 1956 1966 1977 1992 2002 2011 2015
Evolutia populatiei rurale
Arad Timis
FIGURE 43 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION
AGE DISTRIBUTION The young populations, born after 1990, are small as volume, their number decreasing a lot compared to the average of the populations prior to that year.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Distributia pe varste a populatiei masculine
AR Total TM Total
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Distributia pe varste a populatiei feminine
AR Total TM Total
FIGURE 44 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION
The evolution of the total population
The evolution of the urban population The evolution of the rural population
Age distribution of the male population Age distribution of the female population
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 36
DEMOGRAPHY The rural areas are weakly populated, both in the hilly and plain ones, as result of the
attraction of the large urban centres and of the sensible differences in the living conditions. The population is concentrated in the plain area and in the urban centres,
especially in the two capitals.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
364,00
303.737,00
FIGURE 45 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA POPULATION
COMMUNITIES VITALITY PEARL INDEX The communities from the hilly areas present the lowest values of the communities vitality index, there also being the biggest issues related to the areas depopulation,
including bad living conditions. We notice that vitality is higher in communities with large populations of Rroma ethnicity.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,40
3,05
FIGURE 46 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 5
Vita
lity
The in
dex p
resents
the ra
tio (P
earl)
betw
een th
e popula
tion beyond th
e upper
age
limit
for
work
and
that
belo
w
the
infe
rior
age
limit
to
access
the
labour
mark
et.
Dem
og
rap
hy
The
map
pre
sents
th
e
num
ber
of
pers
ons liv
ing in
vario
us c
om
munitie
s.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 37
THE ACTIVE POPULATIONS OCCUPANCY RATE The municipality of Arad draws in active population also from the neighbouring
localities and the municipality of Timisoara has developed significant production capacities also in the neighbouring communities.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,01
1,70
FIGURE 47 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 5
GROSS AVERAGE SALARIES INCOME The highest average incomes from salaries register in the municipality of Arad and in the communities neighbouring the municipality of Timisoara.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
45,52
29.525,05
FIGURE 48 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 5 - EUR
Th
e o
ccu
pan
cy r
ate
This
in
dex has been calc
ula
ted as ra
tio
betw
een
the
em
plo
yed
popula
tion
(with
out
takin
g in
to a
ccount th
e s
elf-e
mplo
yed pers
ons
w
ho w
ork
in
th
eir
ow
n household
), and th
e
tota
l popula
tion o
f activ
e a
ge (b
etw
een 1
8 a
nd
65 y
ears
old
).
An
nu
al a
verag
e in
co
me fr
om
sala
rie
s
This
in
dex has been calc
ula
ted as ra
tio
betw
een
the
annual
sala
ry
incom
e
and
the
num
ber o
f pers
ons o
f activ
e a
ge.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 38
The Status of the Changes Subsystem GROSS INCOME The main income centres from the area are Timisoara (over 6 billion Euro) and Arad (over 3.5 billion Euro).
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
608.400,34
6.157.989.158,03
FIGURE 49 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 6 - EURO
DYNAMISM AND STAGNATION Though there is no direct relation/ correlation between them, the two weights values
oppose/ are antagonist, thus the communities generating Turnovers from larger private activities have smaller public Salaries and the opposite.
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,01
1,00
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
0,00
1,00
1 2
FIGURE 50 AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 7
Gro
ss in
co
me (
Eu
ro
)
The in
dex pre
sents
th
e sum
of
the priv
ate
and p
ublic
incom
es, a
chie
ved in
the c
om
munity
.
The turnover weight in the Gross incomes - 1 The index presents the ratio between the Turnover from private businesses and the total
of Gross Incomes. The weight of the public salaries in the total of the salaries in the community - 2 There is a ratio between the total annual paid salaries in the public system compared to
the total annual paid salaries in the community.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 39
DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUSTRY AND SERVICES
Values calculated in Euro of the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors (industry, services, trade, finance-banks, etc.).
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
11.840,79
256.072.929,69
1
min
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
MAX
9.867,33
213.394.108,08
2
FIGURE 51 - AURORA SHAPING SOURCE APL, INS, LAST AVAILABLE DATA COMPOSITE INDEX UAT WEST 8
The food products market - 1
Size index estimating the volume of the food products market in a community. The non-food products market - 2 Size index estimating the volume of the non-food products market in a community.
AURORA Copyright AURORA-GRUP 2016 40
Conclusions The Environment potential also given by the existing channels network in this area for the regularisation of the
water flows and also for irrigation (2,100 Ha in Arad of which effectively irrigated 50 Ha and 1,600 Ha in Timis if which effectively irrigated 1,500 Ha) is not enough used,
the cereals crops placing themselves at values of 4,000 4,500 To/Ha. The total resulted agricultural production is
between 3,000 and 4,000 euro/Ha in the two Counties (fig. 38 reproduced aside). The processing of the primary productions leads to a significant increase of the values
achieved by the Environment, and, implicitly, to a higher trading potential on the market.
Of the total of the Arad County population (430,000 inhabitants), 135,000 are employed and/ or self-employed in the agriculture, and 90,000 work in the secondary and tertiary sectors. In the Timis County, of the total population (680,000 inhabitants)
160,000 are employed and/ or self-employed in the agriculture, and 180,000 work in the secondary and tertiary sectors.
The average salary is of 320 Euro/Capita in the Arad County and of 615 Euro/Capita in the Timis County (fig.48 reproduced aside). The concentration of these salary
incomes takes place in the main urban centres, the two counties capitals, their neighbouring areas, and in few
urban centres in the territory (Snicolau Mare, Chiineu Cri). The demographic growth does
not necessarily follow th