www.bccheckup.com 1CPABC Regional Check-Up 2016
REGIONAL CHECK-UP 2017Cariboo Development Region
An Economic Analysis for the Region
Source: CPABC Regional Check-Up 2017. All numbers are from 2016. Increases/decreases are in comparison to 2015 data.
bccheckup.com
Educational Attainment:
59.6% +9.5%
Consumer Insolvencies: Personal Bankruptcies:
2.3 per 1,000 adults or
+5.0%Consumer Proposals:
2.1 per 1,000 adults or
of labour force has a post-secondary certificate/diplomaor higher (+3.4 ppt)
Job Losses: -600 Industries with the Most Job Losses:
Trade and Accommodation & Food Services (-1,400 each)
Other Services (-1,200)
Information, Culture & Recreation (-1,100)
#1#2
#37.4% > 6.0%CDR BC
10.8% > 8.7%CDR BC
Unemployment: Youth Unemployment:
<+2,000goods jobs
-2,600service jobs
with a value of
Number of Major Projects: 29 $10.7 billion -4 2 reportsto
Business Bankruptcies:
95% and of total value of major projects in CDR are either in the proposal stage or on hold
Major projects data is based on Q3 2016. +/- are in comparison to Q3 2015 data.
-0.8%residents or
Population:
155,418
Recovering commodity prices
+ – =Increase in
construction activityUncertain
economic outlook
FORECAST
Tariff on softwood lumber
HIGHLIGHTS
WORK
INVEST
LIVE
Cariboo
Cariboo Development Region (CDR)CPABC Regional Check-Up 2017
www.bccheckup.com 3
Executive Summary
declined in 2016 for the second consecutive year.
Employment sank to a seven-year low of 78,800 jobs,
and both the general and youth unemployment rates
increased to 7.4% and 10.8% respectively.
On the investment side, the value of major projects
under construction declined in 2016 as one project
wrapped up and two smaller projects began
construction. An increase in residential and commercial
construction, however, generated additional
employment for the Cariboo’s construction workers.
Although the last two years have been difficult for many
of the region’s service sector enterprises, fewer business
failures were reported in 2016, as entrepreneurs scaled
back and adjusted their business practices to avoid
insolvency.
The Cariboo’s educational attainment rate improved
dramatically in 2016, rising by 3.4 percentage points to
59.6%. This increase can be attributed to more workers
entering the labour force with a university degree, and
a substantial decline in the number of workers without
post-secondary credentials. The latter likely represents
displaced workers who left the Cariboo.
Of some concern is the Cariboo’s personal insolvency
rate. In 2016, this indicator increased by 4.9% to 4.3 per
1,000 adults, the highest rate in the province and well
above the BC average of 2.8 per 1,000 adults. The job
losses that the Cariboo has endured during the past two
years have no doubt been a contributing factor.
British Columbia enjoyed another solid year of economic
performance in 2016 with GDP growth surpassing the
Canadian average for the sixth straight year. Strong
retail sales, a robust housing market, and a solid gain in
the value of exports were the key drivers. BC’s leading
exports were softwood lumber, coal, aluminum, and
natural gas.
In the Cariboo Development Region (Cariboo),
the forestry and mining industries were the main
contributors to the economy in 2016. Production was up
in the region’s sawmills due to increased demand from
the US, a weak Canadian dollar, and a rally in prices.
The region’s three metal mines continued to operate,
benefiting from a rebound in copper prices late in the
year. As a result, the Cariboo’s goods sector was vibrant
in 2016 — all industries expanded, and as a result, many
full-time positions were created.
Unfortunately, spillover effects from the oil and gas
sector downturn in the neighbouring Northeast
Development Region and Alberta persisted. The
Cariboo’s population declined once again, by 0.8%
to 155,418, as displaced migrant workers and others
affected by the downturn left the region in search of
opportunities.
Population outflow, a decline in disposable income, and
the loss of oilfield-generated business reduced demand
in some service industries, triggering more layoffs. As a
result, the number of people employed in the Cariboo
CPABC Regional Check-Up 20174
Altogether, our 2016 Regional Check-Up indicators were
mixed — the Cariboo was a good place to live, work, and
invest for some, but clearly not for others.
Looking at the remainder of 2017, global commodity
demand and price forecasts are mixed due to
uncertainty pertaining to the outcome of Brexit, a
slower economic growth rate in China, and how the
new US presidency will proceed with international trade
relations. Analysts are positive about the outlook for
copper, however, which is great news for the Cariboo’s
three metal mines, and bodes well for the year ahead.1
It is possible this positive outlook for copper may also
revive exploration activity in the region.
While oil prices have improved in recent months, it
is doubtful the price increase will trigger a return to
work in the oilfields. However, as construction activity
picks up at BC Hydro’s Site C Clean Energy Project
in the Northeast Development Region, employment
opportunities may improve for some of the Cariboo’s
displaced workers.
There is no clear picture of how the Canada-US
Softwood Lumber Agreement negotiations will impact
the Cariboo’s lumber producers in 2017. However,
demand for the region’s lumber will likely continue,
given the weaker Canadian dollar, the expectation that
new home construction in the US will rise steadily over
the next two years, BC’s position as a key US lumber
supply source, and the Cariboo’s competitive advantage
of high-efficiency mills.2 On the supply side of things, it
is yet to be seen what the impacts of future reductions
in the sustainable harvest rate, or annual allowable
cut, in the Cariboo will have on the Cariboo’s lumber
producers.
Labour market figures for the first quarter of 2017 show
that the number of people employed in the Cariboo
increased slightly; however, a sizable expansion of the
labour force drove the unemployment rate up to 10%,
the highest monthly unemployment rate in seven years.3
1 Cecilia Jamasmie, “Copper to be Best Performing Commodity of 2017 — Analysts,” mining.com, January 15, 2017.
2 TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, March 27, 2017.
3 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0122, April 2017.
www.bccheckup.com 5
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
WORK Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Job Creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
INVEST Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Business and Investment Activity . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Bankruptcies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
LIVE Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Educational Attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Consumer Insolvencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
www.bccheckup.comCPABC Regional Check-Up 2017
CPABC Regional Check-Up 20176
previously commuted to Alberta and the Northeast
Development Region for work. At the provincial
level, the population grew by 1.2% in 2016 as more
people moved to BC. Newcomers were primarily from
Alberta and relocated due to that province’s economic
downturn and the attraction of BC’s comparatively
healthy job market.8
2016 marked another solid year of economic
performance in BC, with GDP advancing by 3.3%,
surpassing the Canadian average for the sixth
consecutive year.9,10 Much of 2016’s growth was
generated by a robust housing market, a rise in retail
sales, and a sizable gain in the value of exports.
Increased demand driven by a housing boom in the
US, a weaker Canadian dollar, and a rise in commodity
prices helped to boost BC’s exports by 9.9%, or $3.5
billion, in 2016.11,12 Softwood lumber remained BC’s main
export, representing just over a quarter of the total
value, with about two-thirds shipped to the US.13 Other
top-valued export commodities were coal, aluminum,
and natural gas.
BC’s economic strength in 2016 translated into
impressive employment gains, with the province
enjoying its largest annual employment growth in more
than a decade.14
The Cariboo Development Region
(Cariboo) is situated in the Central
Interior of British Columbia and
comprises the Cariboo and Fraser-Fort George
regional districts. With a total land area of 131,286 km2,
the Cariboo accounts for 14.2% of the provincial land
base; approximately 3.3% of BC’s population lives in this
development region.4,5 It is estimated that the Cariboo’s
population declined by 0.8% to 155,418 residents in
2016.6 Its largest population centres are Prince George
with 74,003 residents, Williams Lake with 10,753
residents, and Quesnel with 9,879 residents.7
The Cariboo has consistently experienced an outflow of
residents for the better part of the past two decades.
The decline in 2016 largely reflects out-migration
to other areas of BC that offered better economic
opportunities, especially for the region’s workers who 4 Statistics Canada, Census 2016.
5 Statistics Canada, Estimates of Population by Economic Region, Sex and Age Group for July 1, Based on the Standard Geographical Classification 2011, Annual, CANSIM Table 051-0059.
6 Statistics Canada population estimates for the Cariboo have been revised since the Regional Check-Up 2016 report.
7 Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population.
8 Statistics Canada, Interprovincial Migrants, by Province or Territory of Origin and Destination, Annual, CANSIM Table 051-0019.
9 Estimate, TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, March 27, 2017.
10 RBC Economics, Provincial Outlook, December 2016.
11 Jen Skerritt, “Housing Boom Spurs Canada Lumber Surge as U.S. Mulls Import Duty,” Bloomberg, July 28, 2016.
12 BC Stats, Annual BC Origin Exports, March 2017.
13 BC Stats, Exports, Issue 16-12, released February 7, 2017.
14 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), Employment by Economic Region Based on 2011 Census Boundaries and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), Annual, CANSIM Table 282-0125.
Cariboo
www.bccheckup.com 7
With its wealth of natural resources, the Cariboo’s
economy is highly dependent on forestry- and mining-
related activities and is susceptible to global price
and demand fluctuations. During the past decade, the
Cariboo’s wood products manufacturing workforce has
been reduced by nearly half due to a drop in lumber
demand from the US, the pine beetle infestation, the
implementation of new technology, and a tightening
timber supply in some communities.
Part of the strategy for tackling these challenges has
been to diversify into new areas such as engineered
wood products, biofuels, and wood pellets. In 2016,
an innovative new mill opened in Mackenzie that
specifically processes beetle-killed or small diameter
wood into custom-sized cants for Asian and US
markets.15 Prince George’s Wood Innovation and Design
Centre, built in 2015, also helps to support industry
by researching new uses for wood and creating new
markets for forestry products.
Demand for softwood lumber from the US in 2016
helped to fuel the Cariboo’s forestry industry, which is
known for its efficiency due to significant technology
and process upgrades made over the past decade.
Lumber production in both the Northern and Southern
interior regions of BC was up from 2015.16
For many of BC’s resource-rich regions, the mining
sector experienced another challenging year in 2016
as markets for many commodities remained depressed
and investors encountered difficulty securing capital.
Mine development and exploration was dampened in
the Cariboo, but the region’s three metal mines — Mount
Milligan, Gibraltar, and Mount Polley — remained in
operation. All three benefited from a welcome late-year
spike in copper prices.
The Mount Milligan Mine, which produces copper and
gold, celebrated its third year of production, successfully
completing its ramp-up phase in early 2016.17 The
Gibraltar Mine took advantage of the provincial
government’s five-year power rate deferral program,18
which allowed the mine to maintain its copper/
molybdenum operations during the extended period of
lower copper prices.19 The mine had a successful year
with a 23% increase in copper production over 2015,
and it resumed molybdenum production in the fourth
quarter.20 Two years after the collapse of its tailings
pond, the Mount Polley Mine resumed full operations in
2016.
Despite a solid year in the Cariboo’s resource industries,
overall employment declined for the second consecutive
year. Job losses were spread across several service
sector industries, which offset job creation in the
region’s goods sector. As a result, between 2015 and
2016, the region’s unemployment rate increased by
0.4 percentage points and the number of employment
insurance beneficiaries increased by 11%.21,22
15 Frank Peebles, “Duz Cho Forest Products Opens New Sawmill,” Prince George Citizen, June 14, 2016.
16 Statistics Canada, Lumber Production, Shipments and Stocks, by Canada and Provinces, Monthly, CANSIM Table 303-0064.
17 C.P. Jago, British Columbia Ministry of Energy and Mines, “Exploration and Mining in the North Central and Northeast Regions,” Provincial Overview of Exploration and Mining in British Columbia, 2017.
18 Allows mines to defer up to 75% of their electricity costs based on metal prices. As commodity prices recover, the mines will repay the amounts deferred, plus interest.
19 Taseko, “Taseko Signs Power Cost Deferral Agreement for Gibraltar Mine,” press release, April 11, 2016.
20 Taseko, “Taseko Reports Fourth Quarter Operating Cash Flow of $50 Million,” press release, February 22, 2017.
21 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), by Provinces, Territories and Economic Regions Based on 2011 Census Boundaries, Annual, CANSIM Table 282-0123.
22 Statistics Canada, Employment Insurance Program (EI), Beneficiaries by Province, Census Division, Total and Regular Income Benefits, Declared Earnings, Sex and Age, Unadjusted for Seasonality, Annual, CANSIM Table 276-0035.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 20178
*Northwest BC is made up of the Nechako and North Coast development regions.Source: CPABC Regional Check-Up 2017. All numbers are from 2016. Increases/decreases are in comparison to 2015 data.
Comparison between Development RegionsCPABC Regional Check-Up 2017
+1.2%
New Jobs in BC:
+73,300
90%
-0.2% to 6.0%
-1.2% to 8.7%
of new jobs created in Mainland/Southwest
Greatest job increasein at least 10 years
Thompson- Okanagan
Other
Vancouver Island/Coast
Youth unemployment is highest inKootenay, Northwest BC, and Northeast,due to job cuts
Mainland/Southwest (+1.6%)
Vancouver Island/Coast (+1.3%)
Thompson-Okanagan (+0.7%)
Northeast (+0.3%)
Kootenay (+0.2%)
Cariboo (-0.8%)
Northwest BC* (-1.3%)
of BC’s residents live in Mainland/Southwest, Vancouver Island/Coast, and Thompson-Okanagan
Uncertaintyover commodity prices
Population in BC: 4,751,612 residents or
Unemployment in BC:
Youth Unemployment in BC:
WORK Total Jobs in BC: 2.3 million
Unemployment Rate across BC:
2015 2016 Change
Northeast 5.9% 9.7% +3.8%
Kootenay 7.4% 8.0% +0.6%
Thompson-Okanagan 6.4% 7.8% +1.4%
Northwest BC* 7.0% 7.7% +0.7%
Cariboo 7.0% 7.4% +0.4%
Vancouver Island/Coast 6.3% 5.8% -0.5%
Mainland/Southwest 6.0% 5.5% -0.5%
BC 6.2% 6.0% -0.2%
Potential international trade policy changes
Slower housing market
Cautious optimism for BC’s economyin 2017
+ + =
Mainland/Southwest
FORECAST
64.6%
9.5% 10.4%
15.4%
~ 94%
DEMOGRAPHICS
www.bccheckup.com 9
The overall value of building permits increased by 41% in
2016 in contrast to tepid growth of 1% at the provincial
level.27 After two years of fewer job opportunities in
the construction industry, this was no doubt a welcome
change for the Cariboo’s tradespeople.
In contrast, job losses battered seven of the Cariboo’s 11
service sector industries in 2016. The overall decline of
2,600 jobs drove service sector employment down to a
seven-year low of 54,200 jobs.28
The trade and the accommodation and food services
jobs declined by 1,400 workers each in 2016. A small
increase in jobs at the wholesale trade level was
insufficient to offset substantial layoffs made by the
region’s retail businesses. In the accommodation
and food services industry, much of the employment
decline took place in the region’s eating and drinking
establishments.
The “other services” industry lost an estimated
1,200 workers in 2015 and again in 2016, primarily in
operations that provide repair and maintenance, as well
as personal and laundry services.29 Other employment
declines in the Cariboo occurred in the information,
culture and recreation; finance, insurance, real estate
and leasing; and public administration industries where
a collective loss of 2,200 jobs was reported.
Job Creation
The Cariboo’s labour market
retracted again in 2016 with the
loss of 600 jobs, a decline of 0.8%
that edged total employment down
to 78,800 jobs.23 This is the lowest
employment level the Cariboo has
experienced since 2009, when the region fell into a
recession after the US housing bust and subsequent
decline in lumber demand.
It was not all bad news in the Cariboo’s labour market in
2016, as some industries expanded their workforce. The
goods sector was vibrant, with all industries reporting
job growth.24 Overall, 2,000 jobs were created, bringing
total employment in the sector to 24,600 positions.25
This was a positive turnaround from the ongoing job
loss the sector incurred from 2013 to 2015.
The forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas industry
generated the largest share of employment growth in
the goods sector, expanding by 900 new jobs. Both the
mining and oil and gas extraction and the forestry and
logging sub-industries contributed to job creation, with
many new workers hired in the latter part of 2016.26
The creation of 600 jobs in the construction industry
was primarily driven by an increase in commercial and
residential building in Prince George and Quesnel.
WORK Indicators
23 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), Employment by Economic Region Based on 2011 Census Boundaries and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), Annual, CANSIM Table 282-0125.
24 Data for industries with employment estimates below 1,500 is suppressed.
25 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), Employment by Economic Region Based on 2011 Census Boundaries and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), Annual, CANSIM Table 282-0125.
26 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), Employment by Economic Region Based on 2011 Census Boundaries and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), Monthly, CANSIM Table 282-0124.
27 BC Stats, British Columbia Building Permits for Development Regions and Regional Districts, by Type 2006 – 2016, February 7, 2017.
28 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), Employment by Economic Region Based on 2011 Census Boundaries and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), Annual, CANSIM Table 282-0125.
29 There is insufficient data to conclude if the other sub-industries have contributed to the employment decline.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 201710
30 Nelson Bennett, “North’s Economic Boom Goes South,” Business in Vancouver, August 23, 2016.
31 Derek Clouthier, “Alberta’s Weak Economy Spilling Over to Other Western Provinces,” trucknews.com, January 5, 2016.
32 Sampling error in both 2015 and 2016 may account for part of the large variations in reported job creation and job loss in these industries.
33 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Estimates (LFS), Employment by Economic Region Based on 2011 Census Boundaries and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), Annual, CANSIM Table 282-0125.
Job creation in many of the foregoing service industries
can be sensitive to population, economic, and income
changes. The economic downturn in the neighbouring
Northeast Development Region has shut down or
resulted in downsizing of many suppliers to the oilfields
in that region, with the effects undoubtedly spilling
over to some Cariboo businesses.30 This, coupled with
a decline in disposable income due to job losses and
an outflow of residents, has reduced demand for some
services, and has resulted in further job cuts in an effort
to control costs.
Several service industries reported substantial
employment gains in 2016. The transportation and
warehousing industry rallied with the addition of 1,300
workers, after four years of declining employment. Most
of 2016’s job creation was in the trucking sub-industry,
which has been suffering from driver shortages across
the province.31
Employment in both the educational services industry
and the professional, scientific and technical services
industry rebounded following a slump in 2015. In
educational services, a total of 1,200 new jobs were
reported in 2016, with new opportunities created
in elementary and secondary schools and by other
educational services employers.32 The professional,
scientific and technical services industry expanded by
1,100 new jobs.
Other new jobs created in the Cariboo’s service sector
in 2016 were in health care and social assistance,
specifically ambulatory health-care services and
hospitals, which added 600 new workers.
Job creation in the Cariboo’s goods-producing
industries is, by and large, positive news, as occupations
in this sector are generally higher paying than many
in the service sector. The Cariboo’s goods sector now
supplies 31% of all the region’s jobs, compared to 26% in
2011 and 20% at the provincial level.33
At the provincial level, 73,300 new jobs were created
in 2016, an increase of 3.2%, due to substantial
employment gains in the Mainland/Southwest and
Vancouver Island/Coast development regions. Although
the Cariboo lost jobs, the Kootenay and NOrtheast
development regions lost more jobs.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
www.bccheckup.com 11
Table 1-1: Employment, Cariboo Development Region, 2011 to 201634
Job Creation (000)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165-Year2011-16
1-Year2015-16
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (000) 81.1 84.7 81.6 85.3 79.4 78.8 -2.3 -0.6
Goods-Producing Sector (000) 20.9 26.2 24.1 23.5 22.6 24.6 +3.7 +2.0
Agriculture x x x x x 1.6 n/a n/a
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas 4.2 6.8 6.1 6.9 5.7 6.6 +2.4 +0.9
Utilities x x x x x x n/a n/a
Construction 6.7 6.9 7.7 6.2 6.3 6.9 +0.2 +0.6
Manufacturing 8.4 11.1 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.4 +1.0 +0.2
Services-Producing Sector (000) 20.9 26.2 24.1 23.5 22.6 24.6 +3.7 +2.0
Trade x x x x x 1.6 n/a n/a
Transportation & warehousing 4.2 6.8 6.1 6.9 5.7 6.6 +2.4 +0.9
Finance, insurance, real estate & leasing x x x x x x n/a n/a
Professional, scientific & technical services 6.7 6.9 7.7 6.2 6.3 6.9 +0.2 +0.6
Business, building & other support services 8.4 11.1 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.4 +1.0 +0.2
Educational services 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.6 6.8 5.0 -0.5 -1.8
Health care & social assistance 9.1 10.2 10.7 10.0 10.0 8.7 -0.4 -1.3
Information, culture & recreation 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.9 2.9 +0.6 0.0
Accommodation & food services 5.6 6.2 6.3 7.4 6.4 6.4 +0.8 0.0
Other services 4.0 2.7 3.1 3.2 5.4 4.2 +0.2 -1.2
Public administration 3.3 3.5 2.4 4.0 3.4 3.6 +0.3 +0.2
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey Historical Review
34 Industries with an “x” are estimated to have less than 1,500 employed at that particular point in time; as a result the numbers presented in the table may not add up to total sector figures, and job creation statistics cannot be calculated.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 201712
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is defined as the unemployed
share of the labour force that is actively seeking
employment and willing to work. In 2016, the Cariboo’s
unemployment rate increased by 0.4 percentage points
(ppt) to 7.4%. In contrast, the provincial average rate
declined by 0.2 ppt to 6.0%, spurred on by buoyant
labour markets in the Mainland/Southwest and
Vancouver Island/Coast development regions.
Although the size of the labour force in the Cariboo
declined by 500 in 2016, the number of available jobs
still fell short, resulting in an increase in the number
of unemployed individuals. Some individuals left the
Cariboo in search of new opportunities, while others
withdrew completely from the labour force. The number
of employment insurance beneficiaries grew by 11%.35
2016 was the third consecutive year that the Cariboo’s
unemployment rate grew, widening the gap with the
provincial average to 1.4 ppt.
Nonetheless, the Cariboo’s provincial standing in this
indicator advanced from the second highest in 2015
to the third lowest in 2016, due to four development
regions reporting a larger one-year increase. As some
of the Cariboo residents have been employed in the
Alberta and Northeast oil and gas sectors it is not
unexpected that the Cariboo would experience an
increase in their unemployment rate given the reduced
economic activity in the Cariboo and Alberta resource
sector.
The Mainland/Southwest enjoyed the lowest
unemployment rate at 5.5%, followed by Vancouver
Island/Coast at 5.8%. In contrast, the Northeast
sustained a shocking one-year increase of 3.8 ppt, and
reported the highest unemployment rate in the province
at 9.7%.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
Table 1-2: Unemployment Rate, Cariboo Development Region, 2011 to 2016
Percentage Point (ppt) Change
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165-Year2011-16
1-Year2015-16
Cariboo 7.5 7.0 5.9 6.0 7.0 7.4 -0.1 ppt +0.4 ppt
British Columbia 7.5 6.8 6.6 6.1 6.2 6.0 -1.5 ppt -0.2 ppt
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table.
35 Statistics Canada, Employment Insurance Program (EI), Beneficiaries by Province, Census Division, Total and Regular Income Benefits, Monthly, CANSIM Table 276-0035. Author’s note: Part of this increase, however, may be attributed to extended benefit periods for northern BC claimants in 2016.
www.bccheckup.com 13
Table 1-3: Youth (Aged 19 to 24 Years) Unemployment Rate, Cariboo Development Region, 2011 to 2016
Percentage Point (ppt) Change
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165-Year2011-16
1-Year2015-16
Cariboo* 12.7 14.0 11.7 10.1 10.7 10.8 -1.9 ppt +0.1 ppt
British Columbia 11.8 11.3 10.7 9.2 9.9 8.7 -3.1 ppt -1.2 ppt
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table.
In 2016, the Cariboo’s youth unemployment rate inched
up by 0.1 ppt to 10.8%. Contrary to last year’s trend
in several other development regions, there was an
increase in the number of employed young people in the
Cariboo.
The positive effect of this job creation was offset,
however, by an expansion of the labour force of youth
aged 19 to 24, leaving more youth unemployed than in
2015.
At the provincial level, the youth unemployment rate
declined by 1.2 ppt to 8.7%.
Despite last year’s decline in the Cariboo’s youth labour
market, the region managed to achieve the fourth-
lowest youth unemployment rate in BC in 2016. This
was parimarily due to large youth unemployment
rate increases of 4.0 ppt and 3.4 ppt in the Northeast
Development Region and Northwest BC.
The province’s highest youth unemployment rate was
18.6%, recorded in the Kootenay Development Region.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
*Unemployment rate calculated by author.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 201714
Between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016, the value of the
Cariboo’s proposed investments decreased by $816
million, largely due to the revaluation of the Trans
Mountain Pipeline expansion project from $5.4 billion to
$4.5 billion. Two new developments were also added to
the inventory of projects proposed for the Cariboo:
• Biofuel facility, Prince George, Canfor Corporation and Licella ($70 million); and
• Compressed natural gas transit operations and maintenance facility, Prince George, BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure and BC Transit
($19 million) — start Q4 2016, finish Q4 2019.
The transit facility, which is intended for the
maintenance and operation of city buses, is the only
major project scheduled to proceed in 2017.
The value of projects under construction decreased by
$39 million between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016. During the
same period, two projects began construction:
• Highway 97 Salmon River Bridge replacement, Prince George ($20 million) — start fourth quarter 2016, finish fourth quarter 2017; and
• North Cariboo Arena Replacement Project, Quesnel ($21 million) — start third quarter 2016,
finish fourth quarter 2017.
The value of the Cariboo’s on-hold projects decreased
by $70 million between Q3 2015 and Q3 2016.The North
Cariboo Arena, began construction and the $40 million
Spruce Hills Resort and Spa expansion project near 108
Mile Ranch was moved forward to the proposal stage.
INVEST Indicators
Business and Investment Activity
Investment in Non-
Residential Construction
Capital investment in
industrial, commercial, and institutional infrastructure
fuels job creation and boosts long-term labour
productivity and economic growth.
Low oil prices and ongoing investor uncertainty
hindered capital investment in Canada in 2016. BC’s
overall investment in non-residential construction shrank
by 1.9% to $1.41 billion between 2015 and 2016. While
spending on institutional, governmental, and industrial
projects declined during this period, commercial
building investment grew.36
Inventory of Major Capital Investment Projects
The value of BC’s Major Project Inventory of capital
projects in the proposal phase, under construction,
completed, and on hold also declined in 2016.37 Between
the third quarter of 2015 (Q3 2015) and the third quarter
of 2016 (Q3 2016), the estimated value of these projects
dipped by 2.7% to $437.7 billion.38
In the Cariboo, the total value of major projects declined
by almost $1.0 billion (or 7.8%) from $11.7 billion in Q3
2015 to $10.7 billion in Q3 2016.39 As of September 2016,
there were 29 projects listed, the same number as in
September 2015. Twenty projects with a value of $8.9
billion were in the proposal stage, three estimated at
$481 million were under construction, one project worth
$40 million was completed, and five projects worth $1.3
billion were on hold.
36 Statistics Canada, Investment in Non-Residential Building Construction, by Type of Building, Province and Census Metropolitan Area, Quarterly, CANSIM Table 026-0016, February 16, 2017. Preliminary estimate. Fourth quarter 2015 to fourth quarter 2016. Excludes engineering construction.
37 Only projects with an estimated value over $15 million, or $20 million in the Lower Mainland area, are included.
38 BC Ministry of Finance, BC Major Projects Inventory, September 2016.
39 BC Ministry of Finance, BC Major Projects Inventory, September 2015 and September 2016.
40 A $40-million hotel and condo development in Prince George (duplicate entry) was removed from the Major Project Inventory. Source: Email, February 20, 2017, Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training.
www.bccheckup.com 15
Table 1-4: Business Bankruptcies, Cariboo Development Region, 2011 to 2016
Change
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165-Year2011-16
1-Year2015-16
Cariboo 3 2 1 2 6 2 -1 -4
British Columbia 192 198 189 200 154 149 -22.4% -3.2%
Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada.
Bankruptcies
The trend in business bankruptcies indicates the health
of a region’s business climate. Business failures arise
from a variety of circumstances, the most common
being unable to manage a reduction in business during
an economic downturn.
Between 2015 and 2016, the number of business
bankruptcies in the Cariboo declined by four to two
reports. The number of reported business bankruptcies
in 2016 is comparable to data from 2011 to 2014. In 2015,
however, there was a spike in business bankruptcies;
this jump coincided with substantial job losses and a
subsequent decline in consumer and industry spending.
A return to a typical level of business failures in 2016
may indicate that weaker operations have shut down,
and the remaining entrepreneurs are adjusting business
practices to become more resilient.
At the provincial level, the number of reported business
bankruptcies fell by 3.2% in 2016, from 154 to 149
reports. This is the lowest level in the past five years and
represents a 22.4% reduction from 2011.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 201716
Comparison between Development RegionsCPABC Regional Check-Up 2017
*Northwest BC is made up of the Nechako and North Coast development regions.Source: CPABC Regional Check-Up 2017. All numbers are from 2016. Increases/decreases are in comparison to 2015 data.
Note: Major projects data isbased on Q3 2016. +/- are in comparison to Q3 2015 data.
Personal Bankruptcies:
1.2 per 1,000adults or
Consumer Insolvencies in BC:
Educational Attainment in BC:
Thompson-Okanagan saw the highest increase in business bankruptcy reports
Consumer Proposals:
1.6 per 1,000 adults or
-20.0%
+6.7%
69.4%
-2.7% to
$437.6 billion-3.2% to
149 reports
341 major projects valued at
LIVE
Mainland/Southwest (71.4%)
Vancouver Island/Coast (69.7%)
Kootenay (67.7%)
Thompson-Okanagan (63.8%)
Northwest BC* (62.9%)
Cariboo (59.6%)
Northeast (53.8%)
Value of all major projects in BC:
Business Bankruptcies in BC:
The Northeast saw the largest increase in the number of consumer insolvencies
#1#2#3#4#5#6#7
are currently under construction (or -3.7%)
$76.6 billion
of BC’s labour force has a post-secondary degree certificate/diploma, or higher (-0.8 ppt)
INVEST
www.bccheckup.com 17
LIVE Indicators
Table 1-5: Percent of Labour Force Aged 25 to 54 with a Post-Secondary Certificate/Diploma or Higher,
Cariboo Development Region, 2011 to 2016
Percentage Point (ppt) Change
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165-Year2011-16
1-Year2015-16
Cariboo 55.5% 60.1% 56.8% 61.0% 56.2% 59.6% +4.1 ppt +3.4 ppt
British Columbia 65.9% 66.5% 67.9% 68.1% 70.2% 69.4% +3.5 ppt -0.8 ppt
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Custom Table
Educational Attainment
A post-secondary education
prepares workers to adapt to
new technology and ideas,
to innovate, and to be more
productive. At today’s rate
of technological growth, many workers are not only
required to obtain post-secondary education before
they enter the labour market, they are also expected
to continuously upgrade their skills throughout their
careers. The BC government predicts that more than
three-quarters of projected job openings to 2025 will
require some type of post-secondary education.41 This
will be discussed further in our BC Check-Up focus piece
later in 2017.
After a setback in 2015, the percentage of the Cariboo’s
labour force aged 25 to 54 with post-secondary
credentials rebounded in 2016, rising by 3.4 ppt to
59.6%. This one-year gain was second to that of
Northwest BC, where educational attainment increased
by 4.2 ppt.
The Cariboo’s improvement in educational attainment in
2016 reflects 1,000 new workers with a post-secondary
certificate/diploma or higher in the labour force of
individuals aged 25 to 54, and a substantial loss of 2,500
workers without post-secondary credentials – many of
whom exited the labour force completely. At the post-
secondary education level, the Cariboo saw growth in
the labour force of individuals with a university degree,
and fewer people with a post-secondary certificate or
diploma.
Despite the Cariboo’s improvement in educational
attainment in 2016, the region still trails most
development regions in BC, ranking second to last.
The Northeast Development Region had the lowest
attainment rate at 53.8%, while the Mainland/Southwest
Development Region, with a rate of 71.4%, had the
highest in the province.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
41 Province of BC, British Columbia 2025 Labour Market Outlook, July 2016.
CPABC Regional Check-Up 201718
Consumer Insolvencies
The consumer insolvency rate, which captures both
bankruptcies and proposals, is defined as the number
of personal insolvencies per 1,000 adults (aged 18 or
older). Indebted individuals may choose to declare
bankruptcy or seek a consumer proposal, which is often
preferred if they have assets or are earning income. This
option allows an indebted person to repay part of their
debt and keep their assets if they continue to make
payments on any loans secured by those assets, such as
a residential mortgage.
The most common causes of consumer insolvencies are
job loss, a decline in income, money mismanagement, a
relationship breakdown, or medical problems. Given the
trend in job losses which the Cariboo since 2013, it is no
surprise that in 2016, the region’s personal insolvency
rate increased for the second consecutive year. Between
2015 and 2016, this rate rose by 4.9% to 4.3 per 1,000
adults due to growth in both personal bankruptcies and
consumer proposals.
The Cariboo was not alone in reporting a higher
incidence of consumer insolvencies in 2016, as all of
BC’s northern regions experienced the same trend. The
Cariboo remained well above the BC average of 2.8
insolvencies per 1,000 adults and posted the highest
rate of consumer insolvency in the province for the third
consecutive year. In BC, this metric declined by 6.7%
in 2016, owing to fewer insolvencies in the southern
development regions.
See our summary infographic for regional comparisons.
Table 1-6: Annual Consumer Insolvency Rate per 1,000 Adults (Aged 18 Years and Older),
Cariboo Development Region, 2011 to 2016
Percentage Point (ppt) Change
Rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20165-Year2011-16
1-Year2015-16
Cariboo
Insolvency 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.3 +7.5% +4.9%
Bankruptcy 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.3 -23.3% +9.5%
Proposal 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 +110.0% +5.0%
BC Insolvency 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 -12.5% -6.7%
Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada and Statistics Canada.
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CPABC Regional Check-Up 201720
CPABC Regional Check-Up — Cariboo
As leaders in analyzing and validating information, CPAs are often called upon to provide independent,
fair, and objective information to assist in decision-making. It’s with this goal in mind that the Chartered
Professional Accountants of British Columbia prepares the CPABC Regional Check-Up and BC Check-
Up reports each year. It is our hope that the reports will make a positive public policy contribution to
the province by stimulating debate and discussion about how to make BC a better place in which to
live, work, and invest.
The CPABC Regional Check-Up and BC Check-Up reports, as well as related information, are available
online at www.bccheckup.com.
Staff
Kerri Wilcox, Vice President, External Affairs and Communication, CPABC
Vivian Tse, Public Affairs Specialist, CPABC
Economists
Chisholm Consulting, in association with Gold Island Consulting.
The Regional Check-Up — Cariboo report is edited by Vivian Tse. Creative layout, infographics, and
graphics used in this report are done by Linda Mitsui of Profile Design Group Inc.
Opinions expressed in the CPABC Regional Check-Up — Cariboo do not necessarily reflect those of
individual chartered professional accountants.
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