Residential Solar – Business Opportunities in India
…to reach >700 GW by 2047
RE-Expo September 18, 2019
GIZ IGEN Solar – Lighthouse Projects
400 KW at Chinnaswamy Stadium DMRC: PV at curved roofs, parking spaces, flat roofs
5 MW rooftop PV in Madhya Pradesh Solar air heating in Ladakh
IndiaOne: 1 MW Solar thermal power plant
Grid Integration Study / DISCOMS
DISCOM’s in India will become the driver for RTS…
27.09.2019
• MNRE has assigned a 10 GW target for
residential segment by 2022, only 5%
capacity is achieved as 03/19.
• Total SRISTI scheme budget is 11,000
Crore
• End-User Subsidy
• Upto 40% subsidy for upto 3 kW
• 20% for 3-10 kW systems
• 20% for upto 500 kW systems
• Demand Aggregation eligible in any state
& city of India
40 GW
20 GW
Commercial & Industrial
10 GW
Residential
5 GW
PV Ports / Standard
5 GW
Net Metering / Custom-
made
10 GW
Institutional / Government
27/09/2019
IESS 2047 – General Assumptions
Population increase 2047/2017 = + 32 % = > 400 Mio.
Year Units 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
GDP INR Trillion 83,92 117 172 258 386 572 782 1028
Share of
Manufacturing% 16% 19% 21% 24% 26% 29% 31% 34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Mill
ion
Year
Population Growth
Urban Population Rural Population Total Population Urbanization
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Households
Households
27/09/2019
Electricity demand in India 2016 to 2027…
…will nearly double with a 12% increase in population and a 20% increase in GDP and a 60% increase in
kWh/capita consumption
Source: CEA – National Electricity Plan, Jan 2018
27/09/2019
RE-Targets India 2022/2027
…are quite ambitious
Source: CEA – National Electricity Plan, Jan 2018
RES installed Capacity
as per 31.12.2018
35,288
24,582
1,444
4,528
65,842
27/09/2019
Expected Generation from RE
…fairly optimistic assumptions
Source: CEA – National Electricity Plan, Jan 2018
Solar: 162 BU/100 GW = 1620 KWh/KW
Wind: 112 BU/ 60 GW = 1867 KWh/KW
Bio + SHP: 52 / 15 = 3467 KWh/KW
27/09/2019
IESS 2047 – electricity demand
All sectors are growing esp. industry + domestic
Source: eigene Berechnungen auf Basis des IESS Tools
4484 Mill.
27/09/2019
IESS 2047 – generation capacity
Coal increases in spite of “explosion” of RE but Solar increases tremendously
Source: eigene Berechnungen auf Basis des IESS Tools
700 GW
27/09/2019
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Responsible
Abhinav Jain
IGEN Solar Team