Schooling for Tomorrow
Henno Theisens
CERI/ OECD
WHY IS FUTURE THINKING IMPORTANT?
USING TRENDS FOR FUTURE’S THINKING
Register long-term change
Understand context
Ask the right questions
Create credibility
Be creative and rigorous
Without the data
your chatta don’t matta
Trends to:
Why Difficult
“Stocks have reached what looks like a
permanently high plateau.”
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University
Just before the 1929 Wall St. Crash
“Airplanes are interesting toys
but of no military value.”
Maréchal Ferdinand Foch
French Marshall during WW 1
Why Difficult
From “bottom-heavy” to “top-heavy” age structures
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
2050
1950
More enter than leave OECD countries, with substantial numbers now “foreign born”
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Luxembourg
Australia
Switzerland
New
Zealand
Canada
Austria
Germ
any
United States
Sweden
Belgium
Ireland
Netherlands
Greece
France
United Kingdom
Norw
ay
Portugal
Denm
ark
Spain
Czech R
epublic
Slovak Republic
Finland
Hungary
Italy
Turkey
Poland
Stock of foreign-born as a percentage ofpopulation (2004)
Annual net migration per 1 000 population(1990 - 2004)
China and India are Catching Up
Computers becoming rapidly faster and more powerful
Number of websites worldwide increasing rapidly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Life-long learners
Culturally sensitive global citizens
Information overload and on-line collaboration
Schooling for Tomorrow