Searching for New Physics Searching for New Physics at the Energy Frontierat the Energy Frontier
Rob Roser (Fermilab/CDF)
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Run 2 Luminosity Progress
Record peak inst. luminosity 3.6 E 1032 cm–2 s–1
Record luminosity/week
73 pb-1
Record luminosity/month
250 pb-1
Total Luminosity delivered
6.7 fb-1
8 years
100 times more datathan used for Top quark discovery
!
L
3.5 E 1032
L
> 2 fb-1 deliveredin 2008 !
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FY11 Luminosity Projections [delivered]
We are here
Inte
gra
ted
lu
min
osi
ty (
fb-1)
---------
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
~12 fb-1
Results up to ~ 5 fb-1
by Summer 09
Running through FY10 will yield 7
fb–1 of data for analysis
Running through FY11 would yield 9-10 fb–1 of data for analysis
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The Tevatron Physics ProgramThe Tevatron Physics Program Precision, new research and discoveries
Mixing, CKM Constraints, and CP-Violation
Heavy Flavor Spectroscopy
New Heavy Baryon states
Tests of QCD and HF production
Top-quark and W-boson Masses
Top quark properties
Di-Boson production and SM Gauge Couplings
New exclusive/diffractive processes
We’re addressing questions of fundamental importanceWe’re addressing questions of fundamental importance
Unique window into the unknown
Searches for Supersymmetry, Extra Dimensions, other Exotica
Still at the Energy Frontier
Probing the Terascale as luminosity increases
• The Standard Model Higgs is now within reach !
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Physics ProductionPhysics ProductionStable tools and an excellent understanding of the detectors and the data
Productivity is higher than everNear 100 new results between Summer08 and Winter09 [CDF+D0]
Still in some areas we are only scratching the surface
Much potential for further precision, reach and discovery
We need to keep exploiting the data from all angles
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Tevatron Physics Impact
Nearly 100 journal publications last year alone
About 60 Ph.D.’s / year over the last few years
About 3500 physicists have participated on the CDF and D0 experiments
CDFCDFD0D0
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Discoveries: rare SM processes
2004
2006
2008 ZZ ==> mu,mu,mu,mu
Diboson production: more luminosity allows access to smaller cross sections
Diboson production: more luminosity allows access to smaller cross sections
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Recent discovery: single top
• Single Top Physics Program
• Test s vs t [new physics]
• Vtb [precision]
• Lifetime [new physics]
• Single Top Physics Program
• Test s vs t [new physics]
• Vtb [precision]
• Lifetime [new physics]
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With more data : emergence of a new particle
2009
YY(4140)(4140)
2.7 fb-1
unknown composition
These new discoveries yield a few events/fb-1 ==> new areas of research @ 10 fb-1These new discoveries yield a few events/fb-1 ==> new areas of research @ 10 fb-1
CDF
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CDF: updated result with 2.8 fb-1
Inconsistency with SM increased(p-value from 0.15 to 0.08, corresponding to1.8 standard deviations)
More data to come, look also in otherchannels (asymmetry in semileptonicdecays)
Bs J /
Precision: CPV phase SinPrecision: CPV phase Sin(2s)
Combination of CDF and D0 results is incompatiblewith the SM at the 2.2-sigma level
Combination of CDF and D0 results is incompatiblewith the SM at the 2.2-sigma level
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Pro
ba
bili
ty o
f 5
ob
serv
atio
n
CDF only
8 fb-1
6 fb-1
s (radians) s (radians)
CDF+D¯
(assume twice CDF)
More luminosity buys more probability for discoveryand increases the sensitivity range
More luminosity buys more probability for discoveryand increases the sensitivity range
L
Precision ==> Discovery possibilities
5-sigma probability vs s 5-sigma probability vs s
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Mtop = 173.1 ± 0.6(stat) ± 1.1(syst) GeV/c2Mtop = 173.1 ± 0.6(stat) ± 1.1(syst) GeV/c2
At ~10 fb-1 the top mass uncertainty is expected below 1 GeV
At ~10 fb-1 the top mass uncertainty is expected below 1 GeV
Legacy measurement: nearly impossible to beat at a hadron collider
Legacy measurement: nearly impossible to beat at a hadron collider
Precision: MtopPrecision: Mtop
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200 pb-1
1000 pb-1
Next round CDF @ 2fb-1 expect <30 MeV
uncertainty !
Next round CDF @ 2fb-1 expect <30 MeV
uncertainty !
Tevatron experiments are now best in world, will remain so for a long, long, time
Tevatron experiments are now best in world, will remain so for a long, long, time
Precision: MwPrecision: Mw
D0 Run 2 (e)
(e)
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Expected now with all constraints :
MH = 90 +36 -27 GeV MH < 163 GeV @ 95 % CL
Expected now with all constraints :
MH = 90 +36 -27 GeV MH < 163 GeV @ 95 % CL
Precision ==> Higgs constraintsPrecision ==> Higgs constraints
With 10 fb-1
If dMw=15 MeV and dMtop=1 GeV
[for Mw= 80.400] expect
MH = 71 + 24 - 19 GeV
MH < 117 GeV @ 95% CL !
With 10 fb-1
If dMw=15 MeV and dMtop=1 GeV
[for Mw= 80.400] expect
MH = 71 + 24 - 19 GeV
MH < 117 GeV @ 95% CL !
New !
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Observation of Diboson Production in ET+jj
Sensitive to WW/WZ/ZZQCD background well-modeled
Signal significance 5.3
Measure:18.0 2.8(stat) 2.4(sys) 1.1(lumi) pb
theory: 16.8 0.5 pb
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The Higgs SearchThe SM Higgs particle [if it exists] is being produced NOW at the Tevatron ! - we have enough energy
Just not that often & it’s buried in “backgrounds”
It’s a story of luminosity, passion, persistence and luck
We know how to look for it - an we are in fact closing in !
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The Higgs SearchThe SM Higgs particle [if it exists] is being produced NOW at the Tevatron ! - we have enough energy
Just not that often & it’s buried in “backgrounds”
It’s a story of luminosity, passion, persistence and luck
We know how to look for it - an we are in fact closing in !
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Higgs boson at the TevatronHiggs boson at the Tevatron
• Gluon fusion is the dominant production mode: σ ~1.1-0.1 pb• W/Z associated production next most frequent mode: σ ~0.2-0.01 pb
PRODUCTION
DECAY
Low mass
High mass
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WH lbbZH bbZH llbb
H WW ll
ZH llbbZH bbWH lbb
H WWlvlv
Total
(double including D0)
Higgs at the Tevatron
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Many channels/experiment & Large Effort
CDF + D0:
Up to 70 distinct final states !
CDF + D0:
Up to 70 distinct final states !
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Most recent combination CDF + D0
2.4xSM
160 GeV < MH < 170 GeV is excluded at 95% CL !160 GeV < MH < 170 GeV is excluded at 95% CL !
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Outlook for the Higgs Search• Recent improvements
include:
• better lepton acceptance
• smarter triggering
• More improvements in the pipeline
• Better flavor tagging
• Complementary triggers
• Tau identification
• Better jet, ET resolution
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and some luck
Higgs reach with FY11 running and continued analysis
improvement[bottom orange
band]
Higgs reach with FY11 running and continued analysis
improvement[bottom orange
band]
2-sigma
3-sigma
• Red – 5fb analyzed/expt
• Blue – 10 fb analyzed/expt
Discovery Watch Several results show
discrepancies with the SM
Are these just statistical fluctuations or the beginning of a beautiful
friendship
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t’ Search
Di- electrons
SummaryThe Tevatron program continues to be remarkably successful
A Legacy of discoveries and extraordinary results
So far only 2 to 4 fb-1 of data analyzed
This could increase by factors of 3 to 10 with data from running through 2011
Exciting potential for future Tevatron discoveries
The Higgs is our domain for a while
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