Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
CONFERENZA FINALE
PROGETTO SICH Semantic Illegal Content Hunter
Zero marginal cost crime
Gianluigi Me, Luiss, SICH Advisory Board Roma, 20 Novembre 2015
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Drugs on anonymous networks
Further threats (only few)
Conclusions
Agenda
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Drugs on anonymous networks
Further threats (only few)
Conclusions
Agenda
Drugs on anonymous networks
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Intro • Cybercrime: Spam, Phishing, Carding,
Malware/Badware, Botnets, Child pornograhy, Copyright infringment etc…
• This attacks today may involve a dozen different parties each responsible for some particular piece of the operation (CaaS).
• This is possible because a shared marketplace allows for economies of scale and encourages specialization and competition (and hence efficiency).
• a criminal entrepreneur can outsource these parts of business and combine them in innovative ways to support new value creation strategies
• Commodization
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Intro • Profit centers: victims/customers transfer new
capital into the underground. E.g.:
• in Credit Card theft, ATM withdrawl scam provides an estimated revenue of $45Mln in one day
• In Spamvertised products, Luxury knock-offs provide an estimated revenue of $68Mln in 2013-2014
• In Clickfraud, Zero Access provides an estimated revenue of 36$ Mln (2013), in Scareware, Cryptolocker $3Mln (2013-2014)
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Intro • Support Centers: value chain rings (CaaS), criminal activities.
E.g.:
• Compromised hosts
• 1 Pay per install: (US/UK) $100/$180
• 1 Pay per install: (Europe) $20/$160
• Human services
• CAPTCHA $1-$2
• SMS challenge $200
• Networking and hosting
• DDoS:800 Mbps 10$ per 1 month
• DDoS:100 Gbps 200$ per 1 month
• Accounts & Engagement
• Facebook PVA $80-400$
• Google PVA $80/500
• Twitter account $1-$20
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Intro • Marketplaces role is to mitigate risks:
• abolishing physical interactions between transacting parties
• providing superior anonymity guarantees compared to the alternatives
• Escrow system to prevent financial risk
• providing a feedback system to enforce quality control of the goods being sold
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Cryptomarket
62% 10% 0%
4%
5%
2% 1% 11%
1%
4%
MKT sharing
Drugs
Digital
Bitcoin
Accounts
Money
Software
Misc
eBooks
Services
Others
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NPS-trade TOR Forum joining (or Marketplace selection)
I2P communication (frequent in chemist/guinea pig relationship)
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Nucleus market Quantity Price
Price/grams
1g USD99.00 USD 99,00
2g USD189.00 USD 94,50
3.5g USD308.00 USD 88,00
5g USD410.00 USD 82,00
7g USD536.00 USD 76,57
10g USD720.00 USD 72,00
14g USD942.00 USD 67,29
20g USD1265.00 USD 63,25
28g USD1660.00 USD 59,29
56g USD3105.00 USD 55,45
112g USD5876.00 USD 52,46
250g USD12375.00 USD 49,50
500g USD23265.00 USD 46,53
1kg USD43560.00 USD 43,56
2kg USD83160.00 USD 41,58
5kg (USA ONLY) USD198000.00 USD 39,60
10kg (USA ONLY) USD376,200.00 USD 37,62
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Dream Market shipping from Europe
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Shipping from europe
Shipping from europe
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Comparing issues between dark net & alt source The Global Drug Survey 2015 findings
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How darknet markets affected the range of consumed drugs The Global Drug Survey 2015 findings
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Which drugs were bought through dark net The Global Drug Survey 2015 findings
Again, the long tail says more…
The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Drugs on anonymous networks
Further threats (only few)
Conclusions
Agenda
Further threats (only few)
Evolution of Cyberattacks Today-botnets (18/11/2015)
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
one (of many) «new» goods
• Additive Manufacturing
• A specific photo-polymer (resin) is selectively cured
by a laser beam, layer by layer, in order to reproduce
the shape of the desired object. Now, metals,
ceramic, polymeric components
• Stereolithography aims to get, in a very short time
and without specific tooling, a physical
representation of a 3D CAD model in order to speed
up a new product development process
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one (of many) «new» goods
.22-caliber pistol, formed from a 3D-printed AR-15 (M16) lower receiver, and a normal, commercial upper. The main body of the gun is plastic, while the chamber — where the bullets are actually struck — is solid metal. Cost:10-30$
Try Liberator.zip ! Or many others
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Drugs on anonymous networks
Further threats (only few)
Conclusions
Agenda
Conclusions
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Remarks
• TOR’s impact is not negligible in consumer’s habits
• It seems that TOR enables long tail revenues as the web in many other legal markets (books, ads etc) (Research issue)
• If so, many applicable internet economics theories & findings could better depict/predict the evolution of this market
• What else in TOR?
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Criminal Business Model
• CaaS-Crime as a Service
• Affiliate Program Marketplaces/risk mitigators
• Profit Centers/Support Centers
• Commodization of drugs: or novel long tail?
• zero marginal cost contaminates crime, anonymous networks ease the supply/demand match
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Ruling laws
Code is law (L. Lessig)
The Law of churn (e.g., 3D printing, self driven cars, IOE and Critical infrastructure)
Externality and the `Tragedy of the Commons‘
Different legal frameworks enable illegal trade of goods (Budapest Convention adoption is not worldwide adopted!)
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Research directions Prevention, not reaction (boiled frog!)
Anonymous networks reinforces the need of adaptive methodologies/techniques/technologies to detect crime-domain content (Research directions)
New criminal opportunities need new economical, technological and criminological research
Leverage on precision rather than recall
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Contact
Grazie
Gianluigi Me
Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union
Q&A