The State of Mobile Technology
Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userfirstweb.com • http://mobileportland.com Twitter: @grigs • [email protected]
Flickr: Uploaded February 11, 2007 by hawridger
by Jason Grigsby
3.3BillionMobile phone for half the planet.
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
3.3 Billion in Perspective
Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.htmlhttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
Flickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games
CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games
CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
200 billion for data services in 2008(SMS accounts for 130B)
Mobile Phone Adoption Still Growing
• China Mobile has 317 million subscribers—more than U.S. population.
• China total market is half a billion users. They are adding 6 million subscribers per month.
• 28% of mobile phone owners have two or more subscriptions.
• Average for industrialized countries is over 100% subscriber rate, led by 140% subscriber rate for Hong Kong, Taiwan, Italy and Israel. (U.S. is at a paltry 80%)
• Percentage of younger phone users increasing. Normal for children under 10 years old to have a phone in Europe and Asia.
• Population grows by 3 people a second. 38 mobile devices a second.
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
The 7th Mass Mediahttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/02/mobile_the_7th_.html
Flickr photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nitsrejk/126982680/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadsidepictures/317559195/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/snurb/172039084/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/kt/249301268/ •
http://www.flickr.com/photos/simon_aughton/2178768452/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/lecates/454787692/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/gaetanlee/118885175/
“I’m not sure we can call it a wave. Tsunami?”
— Eric Peterson, Leading Web Analytics Author & Consultant
Flickr photo by look4u: http://www.flickr.com/photos/look4u/279668622/
It's the recreation of the
Internet, it's the recreation of
the PC story and it is before us
— and it is very likely it will
happen in the next year.
Eric Schmidt, Google CEO speaking at Davos, January 2008
Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.
Flickr photo by CaptPiper: http://www.flickr.com/photos/piper/197153406/
Mobile is the Technology that Cried Wolf.(for 15 years)
“The Mother of all Markets.”
Dr. Eli Harai, San Disk CEO, 2008
John Sculley, Apple CEO, 1992
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E0CE5D9143AF93AA25754C0A964958260
Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone
Flickr photo by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/
Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone
Flickr photo by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/
Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone
Flickr photo by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/
Gopher, Mosaic, WAP, iPhone
Flickr photo by: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vixon/352427852/
Source: NetApplications, August 2008Graphic courtesy Raven Zachary, http://raven.me
U.S. Mobile Browser Share
“It’s about usage. Not units”
• Number of queries on Google search from iPhones surpassed those from Symbian-based phones in the days after Christmas. Nokia’s Symbian-based phones are 40% of the market worldwide.
• German iPhone users consume 30 times more data.
• 95% of iPhone customers regularly surf the Internet. Data services revenue increased from $2.7 billion in 2005 to $6.9 billion in 2007.
• Google sees 50 times the number of searches using the iPhone than any other mobile device. They were so surprised, they asked their engineers to check the logs to make sure it was correct.
• This is why major companies, Google, Quicken, etc. are all launching iPhone-optimized services despite the iPhone’s 1% market share.
Adoption of Internet
• In 1994, best estimates were 20 to 30 million people on the Internet. That is less that 1% of the world’s population at the time.
• In 2007, 12% of carrier revenue is data services and only 16% of users access the web on those devices once a month.
• 1994, 5% of people surveyed said that they were willing to pay fees for web access. 97% of people were using Mosiac and a text browser, Lynx was #2
• Late 1994, 18% using Netscape and 71% said they might pay depending on cost and quality.
The Hope for Mobile
What is the
likelihood of
exponential
growth for the
Internet on Mobile
Devices?
Daily
Weekly
Ever in Month
0 17500 35000 52500 70000
63182
19283
22369
36870
10312
10821
Jan 08 Jan 09
http://www.comscore.com/press/release.asp?press=2752
Unique Users (000s)
Mobile Web Doubled in 2008
Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession
U.S. Europe
Current Users 58% 55%
Non-Users 27% 28%
Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months
http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm
Top Five Services Non-users Intend to Start Using in the Next 24 Months
U.S. Europe
Mobile Internet 49% 34%
MMS 38% 39%
Uploading Photos 34% 27%
Software/app download 30% 30%
Email 28% 32%
Surprise Story of 2008
Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.flickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/
Web 2.0Web-based Apps
Services & MashupsSoftware as ServiceCloud Computing
iPhone App StoreNative Apps
Few APIs between appsNo Recurring Revenue
Local Storage
Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.flickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/top_10_web_platforms_of_2008.php
Carriers App Store
Openness
Entry Cost
Revenue Split
Restrictions
Releases
Micropayments
Closed, Seek permissionOpen to anyone
who signs agreement
Thousands of dollars $99
60/40 to 50/50 70/30
Many Few
Difficult, Timely 1 to 2 weeks
Inconsistent iTunes for every phone
What makes the App Store successful?
http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2009/02/shoot-is-iphone.html#c148364123
http://www.newsweek.com/id/174266
http://businessweek.com/@@0M43kIYQYKPISw0A/technology/content/sep2008/tc20080930_257832.htm
30 million devices
25,000 apps
800 million downloads
Gold Rush was On
Source: http://gizmodo.com/5199933/giz-explains-all-the-smartphone-mobile-app-stores
Ringtone Apps
(FYI: Justin’s app is out soon. GymRat. $4.99)
http://twitter.com/justin/status/1210786170http://furbo.org/2008/12/09/ring-tone-apps/http://furbo.org/2009/02/16/raising-prices/
0
3750
7500
11250
15000
0 1.99 3.99 5.99 7.99 9.99 11.99 13.99 15.99+
Ringtone Apps
http://148apps.com/10000
Brutally Honest iPhone App Sales:$32k Spent vs. $535 Revenue
http://www.streamingcolour.com/blog/2009/03/09/the-numbers-post-aka-brutal-honesty/
Dapple
Throwaway Apps
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
Pinch Media’s Conclusions
•Users stop using the average applications quickly.
•Long-term audiences are generally 1% of total downloads
•Paid apps retain users longer, but still steep drop off.
http://www.pinchmedia.com/appstore-secrets/
http://148apps.com/10000
25,000 Apps
&
Findability?
iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
17949
7443
47144079
3195
327 437
Symbian RIM Windows Mobile iPhone LinuxPalm OS Other
Q4 2008 Smartphone Sales — Thousands of Unitshttp://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=910112
Flickr photo by André-Batista: http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=408700622&size=o
Objective C
Java ME
WebOS
C++
.NET Compact
BREW
Dalvik
Visual Basic
C
Symbian Windows Mobile
Palm
Google Mobile — App Challenges
•Pressure from CEO for rapid releases
•10+ platforms to support
•Over 100 different builds
http://www.flickr.com/photos/83731031@N00/445924458/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcdave/142758127/http://www.flickr.com/photos/nataliejohnson/290541732/
3.3 Billion in Perspective
Source: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2007/01/putting_27_bill.htmlhttp://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2008/01/when-there-is-a.html
Mobile Internet to Grow Despite Recession
U.S. Europe
Current Users 58% 55%
Non-Users 27% 28%
Average intended usage increase over the next 24 months
http://www.tellabs.com/news/2009/index.cfm/nr/53.cfm
Mobile = Rapid Convergence
• PDAs — In 2000, there were 10 million PDAs sold. Today, PDAs sell less than 10 million per year while smartphones sell more than 120 million annually.
• Digital Cameras — In 2006, there were 450 million cameraphones sold compared to almost 90 million standalone cameras.
• MP3 Players — “At the end of 2004, Apple’s iPod had held an 80% market share of the global MP3 player market.” In 2005, handset manufacturers got serious about adding music to their phones. By 2006, musicphone sales of 309 million dwarfed iPod sales of 46 million units.
BMW Turned $70k MMS into $45M Revenue
Flickr photo by MarkKelley: http://www.flickr.com/photos/markkelley/1022720488/
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
Thank You for Your Time!
Work: http://cloudfour.com • Blog: http://userfirstweb.com • Twitter: @grigs Mobile Portland: http://mobileportland.com