October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 1 of 14
Before reading this report, you must refer to the disclaimer on the last page.
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute: REDUCE
Relative: UNDERWEIGHT
2QFY19 Results: Estimate (), TP (), Rating () Regular Coverage 3% ATR in 14 months
Operating profit in line, packaging segment under pressure — maintain REDUCE Plastic Products
© 2018 Equirus All rights reserved
Rating Information
Price (Rs) 986
Target Price (Rs) 1,022
Target Date 31st Dec'19
Target Set On 29th Oct'18
Implied yrs of growth (DCF) 15
Fair Value (DCF) 559
Fair Value (DDM) 302
Ind Benchmark SPBSMIP
Model Portfolio Position NA
Stock Information
Market Cap (Rs Mn) 1,25,306
Free Float (%) 50.30 %
52 Wk H/L (Rs) 1489.95/944.3
Avg Daily Volume (1yr) 90,488
Avg Daily Value (Rs Mn) 108
Equity Cap (Rs Mn) 254
Face Value (Rs) 2
Bloomberg Code SI IN
Ownership Recent 3M 12M
Promoters 49.7 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
DII 22.0 % 0.8 % 3.4 %
FII 7.2 % -0.1 % -3.2 %
Public 21.1 % -0.7 % -0.2 %
Price % 1M 3M 12M
Absolute -2.0 % -17.8 % -11.0 %
Vs Industry 1.4 % -7.4 % 2.0 %
Astral
Polytechnik -11.6 % -22.2 % 14.9 %
Finolex
Industries 2.8 % -4.1 % -23.8 %
Standalone Quarterly EPS forecast
Rs/Share 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
EPS (18A) 5.9 5.5 7.6 13.1
EPS (19E) 5.9 6.3 8.0 13.9
Supreme Industries (SIL) posted in-line revenue/EBITDA growth of 17%/11% yoy driven by
strong polymer prices, but volume growth at 5% yoy was a tad below EE off a high base.
While FY19 volume guidance of 10% looks achievable, declining profitability of the high-
margin/RoCE packaging segment and volatile polymer prices would restrict margin growth.
We raise our realization estimates but reduce margin estimates for FY19/FY20, keeping our
FY18-20E EPS CAGR largely unchanged at 12%. While a ~20% correction in the stock price
over the last few months has led to a multiple de-rating, we think the market is yet to factor
in lower profitability of the packaging segment and the impact of higher polymer prices on
volumes. We cut our target multiple to 26x (vs. 30x earlier) and maintain REDUCE on the
stock with a Dec’19 SOTP-based TP of Rs 1,022 (Sep’19 TP of Rs 1,224 earlier).
Packaging segment under pressure: Cross-laminated films (Shilpaulin) form ~10%/50% of
overall revenues/packaging segment but have higher contribution in overall EBITDA. With
the entry of new players, SIL has reduced prices of Shilpaulin by 3-4% despite a ~20%
increase in polyethylene prices (RM) over the last 6-9 months; this led to merely 4%/3%
growth in packaging volumes/revenues and a 4% decline in 1HFY19 EBITDA. We feel the
high-margin and higher-RoCE Shilpaulin is fast becoming a commodity product — a concern
we have highlighted earlier. SIL has not been able to scale up any other new products
(bathroom fittings, composite cylinders) with higher RoCE/margins off late.
Volumes muted off a high base: On a strong base post GST implementation, SIL reported
muted volume growth of 5% yoy in 2QFY19. Volume CAGR over 1HFY17-1HFY19 is only 5.7%
driven by the industrial segment. Pipe/industrial volume growth stood at 7%/9%yoy whereas
packaging/consumer segments posted volume declines of 3%/2% yoy. Management further
reduced its volume growth guidance for FY19 from 10-12% to
10%; we maintain our volume growth estimates at 9% for FY19.
Margins contract, EBITDA grows 11% yoy: Strong polymer prices in 1HFY19 led to solid
realization growth of 12% yoy. Flattish volumes in the packaging segment and a price cut
taken due to higher competitive intensity in Shilpaulin led to a ~200bps contraction in gross
margins to 32%. EBITDA margins at 12.9% slid 70bps yoy. Pipe/packaging/industrial/
consumer segment EBITDA grew 17%/-11%/19%/1% yoy. Management reduced its margin
guidance to 14.5-15% from 15-15.5% earlier. We expect SIL to report EBITDA margins of
14.9/15% in FY19E/FY20E, in line with its five-year average margin of 15.4%. EBITDA growth
would be marginally lower than revenue growth for FY19-FY20E.
Adj. PAT up 15% yoy: Other income grew 52% yoy to Rs 156mn. Adjusting for one-time
gains of Rs 346mn for sale of property, PAT was up 15% yoy to Rs 804mn.
Estimate Change
FY19E %
Change FY20E
% Change
Sales 58,023 2% 65,352 0%
EBITDA 8,648 -2% 9,812 2%
PAT 4,322 0% 5,097 -1%
Consolidated Financials
Rs. Mn YE Mar FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Sales 49,660 58,023 65,352 74,326
EBITDA 7,865 8,648 9,812 11,120
Depreciation 1,672 1,843 2,055 2,251
Interest Expense 219 273 226 171
Other Income 178 241 191 224
Reported PAT 4,096 5,217 5,097 5,889
Recurring PAT 4,096 4,322 5,097 5,889
Total Equity 17,331 20,189 23,008 26,334
Gross Debt 2,324 1,765 1,165 1,165
Cash 335 5,629 6,121 8,110
Rs. Mn YE Mar FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Earnings 32.2 34.0 40.1 46.3
Book Value 136 159 181 207
Dividends 12.3 15.9 15.3 17.2
FCFF 20.1 71.4 29.3 36.7
P/E (x) 30.6 29.0 24.6 21.3
P/B (x) 7.2 6.2 5.4 4.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.3 14.1 12.3 10.7
ROE (%) 25 % 23 % 24 % 24 %
Core ROIC (%) 21 % 22 % 27 % 28 %
EBITDA Margin (%) 16 % 15 % 15 % 15 %
Net Margin (%) 8 % 7 % 8 % 8 %
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 2 of14
Quarterly performance
Rs Mn 2QFY19 2QFY19E 1QFY19 2QFY18 % Change
Comments 2QFY19E 1QFY19 2QFY18
Net Sales 12,353 11,950 13,457 10,551 3% -8% 17%
Goods Consumption 8,412 7,770 9,223 6,974 8% -9% 21%
Employee Costs 598 669 600 578 -11% 0% 3%
Other Expenditure 1,749 1,889 1,777 1,563 -7% -2% 12%
Total Expenditures 10,760 10,328 11,600 9,115 4% -7% 18%
EBITDA 1,594 1,622 1,857 1,436 -2% -14% 11%
Depreciation 473 476 427 424 -1% 11% 11%
EBIT 1,122 1,147 1,430 1,012 -2% -22% 11%
Interest 104 63 39 52 65% 164% 102%
Other Income 156 84 6 102 87% 2546% 52%
PBT 1,173 1,167 1,397 1,063 1% -16% 10%
Tax 370 397 652 367 -7% -43% 1%
Recurring PAT 803 770 745 696 4% 8% 15%
Extraordinaries 336 0 559 0 Income from sale of premises
Reported PAT 1,139 770 1,304 696 48% -13% 64%
EPS (Rs) 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.5 4% 8% 15%
Gross Margin 31.9% 35.0% 31.5% 33.9% -308 bps 44 bps -200 bps
EBITDA Margin 12.9% 13.6% 13.8% 13.6% -67 bps -90 bps -71 bps
EBIT Margin 9.1% 9.6% 10.6% 9.6% -51 bps -154 bps -51 bps
PBT Margin 9.5% 9.8% 10.4% 10.1% -27 bps -88 bps -58 bps
PAT Margin 9.2% 6.4% 9.7% 6.6% 278 bps -47 bps 262 bps
Tax Rate 31.6% 34.0% 46.7% 34.5% -244 bps -1511 bps -295 bps
Volume (In MT) 83,175 2,21,055 99,905 79,029 -62% -17% 5%
Realization (Rs MT) 1,48,521 - 1,34,699 1,33,503 - 10% 11%
Real Estate Revenue 809 - - - - - -
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 3 of14
Exhibit 1: Segment-wise volume/revenue/EBITDAM trend
1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 Comments
Sales Vol.
Plastic Piping 66,149 52,967 64,435 72,779 69,619 56,627
Packaging 11,469 10,751 15,806 11,905 12,647 10,443
Industrials 9,979 10,559 11,350 12,600 12,278 11,453
Consumer 4,584 4,749 5,143 5,909 5,275 4,650
Total 92,196 79,029 96,736 103,215 99,905 83,175
Volume (yoy)
Decline in high
margin packaging
volumes
Plastic Piping -6.7% 17.0% 24.9% 7.7% 5.2% 6.9%
Packaging -2.3% 29.5% 3.1% -2.8% 10.3% -2.9%
Industrials 5.8% 17.0% 16.9% 16.5% 23.0% 8.4%
Consumer -7.9% 12.9% 12.8% 16.9% 15.1% -2.1%
Total -5.0% 18.3% 19.2% 7.7% 8.4% 5.2%
Revenue (Rs. Mn)
Plastic Piping 6,649 5,671 6,665 7,966 7,475 6,802
Packaging 2,387 2,153 3,192 2,369 2,598 2,077
Industrials 1,661 1,852 1,927 2,270 2,281 2,544
Consumer 809 842 913 916 1,000 929
Total 11,617 10,551 12,783 14,713 13,457 13,162
Revenue (yoy)
Plastic Piping -3% 17% 19% 25% 12% 20%
Packaging -7% 32% 3% 3% 9% -4%
Industrials 11% 18% 29% 54% 37% 37%
Consumer -4% 15% 17% 18% 24% 10%
Total -1% 20% 15% 28% 16% 25%
EBITDAM (%)
Plastic Piping 13% 12.3% 13.2% 16.9% 13.1% 13.0%
Packaging 19% 16.9% 21.9% 22.1% 17.8% 15.7%
Industrials 11% 12.8% 13.6% 14.5% 11.4% 11.1%
Consumer 16% 18.2% 17.3% 28.8% 15.3% 16.5%
EBITDA/MT
Plastic Piping 13,069 13,136 13,642 19,253 14,107 15,616
Packaging 39,594 33,896 44,205 45,757 36,459 31,220
Industrials 18,298 22,486 23,026 29,438 21,213 24,680
Consumer 28,272 32,316 30,689 46,448 29,047 32,847
Blended 17,208 18,221 20,460 27,783 18,587 19,160
Source: Equirus Securities, Company
Exhibit 2: GPM declined due to rise in RM prices and other operating costs
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 3: Value-added products (with >17% margins) declined from 37% to 35% yoy
Source: Equirus Securities
17.7%
15.6%
33.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Employee+Other Exp EBITDAM Gross Margin - RHS
35%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Value added Product as % of sales
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 4 of14
Exhibit 4: PVC prices for the quarter increased to ~Rs 80/kg during the quarter
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 5:Prices of all the polymers increased during the quarter
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 6: Quarterly volume growth trend
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 7: Gross margins declined by 200bps yoy, EBITDA margin by 70bps yoy
Source: Equirus Securities
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Oct'15
Dec'1
5
Feb'1
6
Apr'16
Jun'1
6
Aug'1
6
Oct'16
Dec'1
6
Feb'1
7
Apr'17
June'…
Aug'1
7
Oct'17
Dec'1
7
Feb'1
8
Apr'18
Jun'1
8
Aug'1
8
Oct'18
Month PVC Price (Rs KG) Quarterly PVC Price (Rs KG)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oct'15
Dec'1
5
Feb'1
6
Apr'16
Jun'1
6
Aug'1
6
Oct'16
Dec'1
6
Feb'1
7
Apr'17
June'…
Aug'1
7
Oct'17
Dec'1
7
Feb'1
8
Apr'18
Jun'1
8
Aug'1
8
Oct'18
PolyEthylene PolyPropylene PVC
8%
17%
5%
18%
3%
17%
6%
-6% -5%
18% 19%
8% 8%
5%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jun-1
5
Aug-1
5
Oct-
15
Dec-1
5
Feb-1
6
Apr-
16
Jun-1
6
Aug-1
6
Oct-
16
Dec-1
6
Feb-1
7
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
Dec-1
7
Feb-1
8
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Volume Growth (YoY)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Gross Profit Margin Core EBITDAM
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 5 of14
Exhibit 8: 17% yoy revenue growth led by piping & industrial segment, weak base
Source:Equirus Securities
Exhibit 9:EBITDA/MT improves on strong pipe & industrial volumes, partly offset by packaging volumes
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 10: Historically, SIL has under-achieved its initial volume guidance; value guidance is not completely in control of management due to volatility in polymer prices
Guidance Later on revised to Achieved
Volume Value Volume Value Volume Value
FY13 16% 25% 10% 17%
FY14 12% 22% 9-10% 20-22% 2% 14%
FY15 12-15% 18-20% 12-15% 8-10% 10% 7%
9MFY16 15-18% - 12-15% - 13% 4%
FY17 12-15% - 8-10% - 4% 6%
FY18 12-15% - 12% - 9% 9%
FY19 12-15% - 10% - - -
Source: Equirus Securities, Company
Exhibit 11: There has never been an upgrade in volume guidance during the year
Volume Guidance FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17 FY18 FY19
Beginning - 14% - 12-15% 12-15% 12-15%
End of Q1 16% 12% - 12-15% 12% 10-12%
End of Q2 16% 9-10% 12-15% 8-10% 12% 10%
End of Q3 16% 6% 10-11% 8-10% 12% -
Actual 10% 2% 10% 4% 9% -
Source: Equirus Securities, Company
Exhibit 12: Expect 10% volume CAGR over next 2 years led by pipe/industrial segments
Source: Equirus Securities
*FY16 includes 4thquarter of FY15
7,5
94
10,1
97
10,8
20
12,5
43
7,6
93
9,9
26
12,0
05
11,8
93
8,8
40
11,0
72
12,8
26
11,6
17
10,5
51
12,7
83
14,7
13
13,4
57
12,3
53
8% 9% 8%
0% 1%
-3%
11%
-5%
15%
12%
7%
-2%
19%
15% 15%
16% 17%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,0001Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Revenue (In Rs Bn) Y/Y
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Blended Pipe Packaging
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Pipe Packaging Total
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 6 of14
Exhibit 13: Realization growth to be much lower than last few years as PVC/PE prices in INR terms are likely to remain range-bound
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 14:Expect 12%/13% EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY18-FY21E
Source: Equirus Securities
*FY16 was a 9 Month year.
Exhibit 15:Return ratios to largely remain at current levels
Source: Equirus Securities
Exhibit 16: SoTP valuation
(Rs mn) Sep'18 Mar'19 Sep'19
TTM Plastic PAT 5,063 5,217 4,813
Core Business Multiple (x) 26 26 26
Business Value 1,31,646 1,35,640 1,25,145
Real-estate Value (Post Tax)
Supreme Petrochem stake @ 40% Holding company
discount (Rs. Mn) 4,767 4,767 4,767
SOTP Value 1,36,413 1,40,407 1,29,912
SOTP Value (Rs./Share) 1,073 1,105 1,022
CMP (Rs./Share) 986 986 986
Upside 9% 12% 4%
Source: Equirus Securities, Bloomberg
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Pipe Packaging Total2,1
62
2,8
00
3,1
58
2,2
38
3,7
93
4,0
96
5,2
17
5,0
97
5,8
89
5,261 5,543 5,815
4,594
7,632 7,8698,648
9,812
11,120
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
PAT Plastics EBITDA (Rs Mn)
21% 22%
19%
16%
23%21% 21%
22% 23%
29% 29%
24%
20%
27%25%
23% 24% 24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
RoIC RoE
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 7 of14
Earnings call takeaways
General highlights
• Plastic goods volumes for 2QFY19 were at 83,175MT with net product turnover of Rs
12.28bn (vs. 79,029MT in 2QFY18, net product turnover of Rs 10.44bn), a volume/value
growth of 5%/18% yoy.
• Segmental revenues in 2QFY19: Plastic products Rs 6.8bn (+7% volume growth, 20%
value growth), packaging products Rs 2.1bn (-3% volume growth, -4% value growth),
industrial products Rs 2.5bn (+8% volume growth, 37% value growth), and consumer
products Rs 1bn (-2% volume growth, 12% value growth).
• EBITDA margins across segments were as follows: plastic piping products 13%, packaging
products 15.7%, industrial products 11.1% and consumer products 16.5%.
• Share of value-added products for 2QFY19 stood at 35% of sales vs. 37% in 2QFY18.
Revenues from value-added products increased from Rs 7.5bn in 2QFY18 to Rs 8.5bn in
2QFY19; however, due to strong topline growth, the percent share has reduced.
• Total borrowings as on 30 Sep’18 stood at Rs 2.59bn vs. Rs 2.48bn as on 31 Mar’18.
Average cost of borrowings as on 30 Sep’18 was at 7.07% p.a. vs. 7.12% as on 31 Mar’18.
• Interest cost was high due to MTM accounting of loans which led to gains in 1Q and
reversed to losses in 2Q.
• Debtor days increased from 21 days to a peak of 26 days and are currently at 25 days
— 3-4 days higher than the acceptable number. This is mainly due to a liquidity crunch
in the channel.
• The Kushkera plant given to the JV with Kumi Kosei had an annual turnover of Rs 1bn
and volumes of 6,000 MT per annum.
• While rupee has depreciated by ~15% in H1FY19, PVC prices have increased by 3.5% and
other polymer prices up to 5%, mainly due coming up of several capacities. The
company expects polymer prices to further correct once the supply reaches market.
• SIL has planned a capex of Rs 3.5bn-4bn for FY19, of which Rs 2.2bn has already been
incurred in H1FY19.
Expansion update
• New plant to manufacture industrial components at Giloth, Rajasthan, has commenced
commercial production during Sep’18.
• Capacity of roto moulded products at Malanpur Unit III (M.P.) and at Kanpur (U.P.) has
become operational. Expanded capacities of both plants are 2,400MT p.a. The new
plant to manufacture HDPE pipes of 9,000 MT p.a. capacity at the Malanpur unit III has
commenced trial production.
• New plant to manufacture PP corrugated sheet with a capacity of 3,600MT p.a. has
commenced operations at the Derabassi unit, Punjab.
• Construction work at the Jadchelra plant, Telangana, is going at full speed and will
commence operations in 3QFY19. It will produce furniture and roto moulded items
currently while foam-based products will start from 4QFY19.
• The Hosur unit will be streamlined with increased capacities at one site instead of two
sites in the Oct-Dec quarter.
• Expanded capacities at the Khopoli unit will start production during 4Q19.
Plastic piping
• Good growth for pipes is seen from the housing sector, especially the affordable housing
sector. Agri pipes demand is also looking good with demand coming from the
government.
• SIL is not an aggressive player in the agri pipes segment as it is marked by high
competition and low margins. It supplies to states where competition is low.
Packaging segment
• There was some demand destruction during the quarter in the packing segment and
cross-laminated films. The off-season scheme which was introduced in 2Q last year has
been delayed to 3Q this year, leading to a decline in volumes. Also, due to some
maintenance activities, there was a plant shutdown in the packaging films segment this
year, which further contributed to the drop-in volumes.
• Margin contraction in cross-laminated films led to a decline in EBITDA in the packaging
products division due to a rise in competitive intensity.
• SIL has taken a price cut of 2.5-3% in the packaging films segment in order to maintain
volume growth.
Composite LPG cylinder
• No breakthrough has been achieved till now in the domestic market.
• Apart from existing countries (Bangladesh, South Korea), SIL will start selling composite
LPG cylinders to one more nation, with first shipping starting from 3QFY19.
Real estate update
• SIL has sold off 38,718 sq. ft premises at Supreme Chambers at Andheri (west) for Rs
808.5mn with an EBITDA of Rs 531mn and PAT of Rs 346mn.
• A total of ~12,000 sq.ft. is now unsold at Supreme Chambers.
Guidance
• SIL has guided for FY19 revenue at Rs 57bn-59bn with 10% volume growth for full year
FY19. Operating margin guidance was lowered from 15.5-16% to 14.5-15% in FY19.
• High pressure is seen in the agricultural pipes segment, with a volume drop likely in
FY19.
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 8 of14
Company Snapshot
How we differ from Consensus
- Equirus Consensus % Diff Comment
EPS FY19E 34.0 39.0 -13 % We expect lower realization growth
resulting in lower Revenue/EPS as
compared to street. FY20E 40.1 46.7 -14 %
Sales FY19E 58,023 56,903 2 %
FY20E 65,352 65,615 0 %
PAT FY19E 5,217 4,940 6 %
FY20E 5,097 5,922 -14 %
Our Key Investment arguments:
• Management’s revenue growth guidance at~15% seems achievable given the shift from
unorganized to organized and increase in spending.
• SIL’s core RoIC peaked out in FY12-13 at 28% and has been at 24-25% in the last two
years.
• EBITDA margins to remain at ~15% going forward.
• Maintain REDUCE to factor lower profitability in packaging segment and impact of
higher polymer prices on volumes.
Key estimates
Particulars FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Plastic Revenue Growth yoy (%) -28.0% 50.7% 11.3% 16.8% 12.6% 13.7% Plastic EBITDA Margin (%) 15.5% 17.1% 15.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% Real Estate Proceeds (Rs. Mn.) 0 0 243 809 0 0
*FY16 was a 9 months year.
Risk to Our View
Sharp revival in volume and scale up of new products
Key Triggers
• RM inflation and volume pressure
Sensitivity to Key Variables % Change % impact on EBITDA
Raw Material Prices 5% -24%
DCF Valuations & Assumptions
Rf Beta Ke Term. Growth Debt/IC in Term. Yr
7.8 % 0.9 13.2 % 2.5 % 5.9 %
- FY19E FY20E FY21-23E FY24-28E FY29-33E
Sales Growth 17 % 13 % 10 % 10 % 9 %
NOPAT Margin 7 % 8 % 8 % 8 % 7 %
IC Turnover 3.22 3.31 3.35 3.43 3.53
RoIC 22.5 % 27.1 % 27.6 % 27.4 % 27.1 %
Years of strong growth 1 2 5 10 15
Valuation as on date (Rs) 284 311 364 438 499
Valuation as of Dec'19 318 348 408 491 559
Based on DCF, assuming15 years of 9% CAGR growth and 27% average ROIC, we derive
current fair value of Rs 499 and a Dec’19 fair value of Rs 559.
Company Description:
Founded in 1942, Supreme Industries ltd (SIL) is an acknowledged leader of India's plastics
industry. SIL is largest plastic processor with the capacity of 0.45mn tons and 19 plants
across the country built over 70 years. SIL portfolio includes the piping, industrial,
consumer and packaging division. It is one of the key beneficiaries of the India growth story
in agriculture, infrastructure, housing and auto.
Comparable valuation Mkt Cap
Rs. Mn.
Price
Target
Target
Date
EPS P/E BPS P/B RoE Div Yield
Company Reco. CMP FY18A FY19E FY20E FY18A FY19E FY20E FY18A FY19E FY18A FY19E FY20E FY18A FY19E
Supreme Industries REDUCE 986 1,25,306 1,022 31st Dec'19 32.2 34.0 40.1 30.6 29.0 24.6 136.4 6.2 25 % 23 % 24 % 1.2 % 1.6 %
Astral Polytechnik SHORT 867 1,03,855 767 30th Sep'19 14.6 19.5 24.8 59.3 44.4 35.0 85.0 8.3 19 % 21 % 21 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Finolex Industries LONG 540 67,012 858 30th Sep'19 24.1 38.6 33.6 22.4 14.0 16.1 222.8 2.3 12 % 17 % 14 % 1.9 % 3.6 %
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 9 of14
Standalone Quarterly Earnings Forecast and Key Drivers
Rs in Mn 1Q18A 2Q18A 3Q18A 4Q18A 1Q19A 2Q19A 3Q19E 4Q19E 1Q20E 2Q20E 3Q20E 4Q20E FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenue 11,617 10,551 12,783 14,713 13,457 12,353 14,570 17,643 15,954 13,581 16,482 19,334 49,660 58,023 65,352 74,326
Goods Consumption 7,940 6,974 8,488 9,454 9,223 8,412 9,717 11,553 10,769 8,979 10,887 12,638 32,855 38,905 43,274 49,535
Employee Costs 537 578 596 705 600 598 688 856 673 695 816 1,078 2,413 2,742 3,261 3,704
Other Expenditure 1,553 1,563 1,721 1,686 1,777 1,749 2,091 2,110 2,207 2,076 2,374 2,347 6,527 7,728 9,005 9,968
EBITDA 1,587 1,436 1,979 2,868 1,857 1,594 2,073 3,125 2,305 1,830 2,405 3,272 7,865 8,648 9,812 11,120
Depreciation 406 424 428 414 427 473 480 464 480 531 530 513 1,672 1,843 2,055 2,251
EBIT 1,181 1,012 1,551 2,454 1,430 1,121 1,594 2,661 1,825 1,299 1,875 2,759 6,194 6,805 7,758 8,869
Interest 33 52 79 56 39 104 65 65 65 59 54 48 219 273 226 171
Other Income 4 102 5 37 6 156 9 71 42 47 49 54 178 241 191 224
PBT 1,152 1,063 1,477 2,435 1,397 1,173 1,537 2,666 1,803 1,286 1,870 2,764 6,153 6,774 7,723 8,922
Tax 399 367 518 774 652 370 523 907 613 437 636 940 2,057 2,451 2,626 3,034
Recurring PAT 753 696 960 1,661 745 803 1,015 1,760 1,190 849 1,234 1,824 4,096 4,322 5,097 5,889
Extraordinary 0 0 0 0 559 336 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 895 0 0
Reported PAT 753 696 960 1,661 1,304 1,139 1,015 1,760 1,190 849 1,234 1,824 4,096 5,217 5,097 5,889
EPS (Rs) 5.93 5.48 7.56 13.08 5.86 6.32 7.99 13.86 9.37 6.68 9.72 14.36 32.22 34.01 40.10 46.33
Key Drivers
Plastic Piping - - - - - - - - - - - - 2,35,257 2,56,330 2,81,963 3,10,159
Packaging Products - - - - - - - - - - - - 47,616 49,931 53,925 57,700
Industrial Products - - - - - - - - - - - - 38,984 44,488 45,823 50,863
Consumer Products - - - - - - - - - - - - 18,797 20,385 22,424 23,545
Raw Material cost (% of sales) - - - - - - - - - - - - 65 % 66 % 67 % 66 %
Sequential Growth (%)
Revenue -9 % -9 % 21 % 15 % -9 % -8 % 18 % 21 % -10 % -15 % 21 % 17 % - - - -
Goods Consumption -5 % -12 % 22 % 11 % -2 % -9 % 16 % 19 % -7 % -17 % 21 % 16 % - - - -
EBITDA -34 % -9 % 38 % 45 % -35 % -14 % 30 % 51 % -26 % -21 % 31 % 36 % - - - -
EBIT -41 % -14 % 53 % 58 % -42 % -22 % 42 % 67 % -31 % -29 % 44 % 47 % - - - -
Recurring PAT -40 % -8 % 38 % 73 % -55 % 8 % 26 % 73 % -32 % -29 % 45 % 48 % - - - -
EPS -40 % -8 % 38 % 73 % -55 % 8 % 26 % 73 % -32 % -29 % 45 % 48 % - - - -
Yearly Growth (%)
Revenue -2 % 20 % 15 % 15 % 16 % 17 % 14 % 20 % 19 % 10 % 13 % 10 % 11 % 17 % 13 % 14 %
EBITDA -21 % 7 % 7 % 20 % 17 % 11 % 5 % 9 % 24 % 15 % 16 % 5 % 3 % 10 % 13 % 13 %
EBIT -28 % 4 % 6 % 23 % 21 % 11 % 3 % 8 % 28 % 16 % 18 % 4 % 2 % 10 % 14 % 14 %
Recurring PAT -26 % 20 % 2 % 32 % -1 % 15 % 6 % 6 % 60 % 6 % 22 % 4 % 8 % 6 % 18 % 16 %
EPS -26 % 20 % 2 % 32 % -1 % 15 % 6 % 6 % 60 % 6 % 22 % 4 % 8 % 6 % 18 % 16 %
Margin (%)
EBITDA 14 % 14 % 15 % 19 % 14 % 13 % 14 % 18 % 14 % 13 % 15 % 17 % 16 % 15 % 15 % 15 %
EBIT 10 % 10 % 12 % 17 % 11 % 9 % 11 % 15 % 11 % 10 % 11 % 14 % 12 % 12 % 12 % 12 %
PBT 10 % 10 % 12 % 17 % 10 % 9 % 11 % 15 % 11 % 9 % 11 % 14 % 12 % 12 % 12 % 12 %
PAT 6 % 7 % 8 % 11 % 6 % 6 % 7 % 10 % 7 % 6 % 7 % 9 % 8 % 7 % 8 % 8 %
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 10 of14
Consolidated Financials P&L (Rs Mn) FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Balance Sheet (Rs Mn) FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Cash Flow (Rs Mn) FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E
Revenue 49,660 58,023 65,352 74,326 Equity Capital 254 254 254 254 PBT 6,153 6,774 7,723 8,922
Op. Expenditure 41,795 49,375 55,540 63,206 Reserve 17,077 19,935 22,754 26,080 Depreciation 1,672 1,843 2,055 2,251
EBITDA 7,865 8,648 9,812 11,120 Networth 17,331 20,189 23,008 26,334 Others 65 895 0 0
Depreciation 1,672 1,843 2,055 2,251 Long Term Debt 2,324 1,765 1,165 1,165 Taxes Paid 2,172 2,451 2,626 3,034
EBIT 6,194 6,805 7,758 8,869 Def Tax Liability 1,276 588 388 388 Change in WC -645 5,214 -582 -588
Interest Expense 219 273 226 171 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Operating C/F 5,072 12,274 6,570 7,552
Other Income 178 241 191 224 Account Payables 4,899 5,330 5,928 6,786 Capex -2,856 -3,373 -3,000 -3,000
PBT 6,153 6,774 7,723 8,922 Other Curr Liabi 1,914 4,769 5,371 6,109 Change in Invest 33 0 0 0
Tax 2,057 2,451 2,626 3,034 Total Liabilities & Equity 27,744 32,640 35,861 40,782 Others 157 0 0 0
PAT bef. MI & Assoc. 4,096 4,322 5,097 5,889 Net Fixed Assets 13,534 14,691 15,636 16,386 Investing C/F -2,666 -3,373 -3,000 -3,000
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Capital WIP 750 750 750 750 Change in Debt -312 -559 -600 0
Profit from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 Others 876 1,249 1,249 1,249 Change in Equity 0 0 0 0
Recurring PAT 4,096 4,322 5,097 5,889 Inventory 6,970 7,948 8,952 10,182 Others -2,552 -3,047 -2,478 -2,562
Extraordinaires 0 -895 0 0 Account Receivables 3,830 4,475 5,040 5,732 Financing C/F -2,865 -3,605 -3,078 -2,562
Reported PAT 4,096 5,217 5,097 5,889 Other Current Assets 1,449 -2,103 -1,889 -1,627 Net change in cash -459 5,295 492 1,989
FDEPS (Rs) 32.2 34.0 40.1 46.3 Cash 335 5,629 6,121 8,110 RoE (%) 25 % 23 % 24 % 24 %
DPS (Rs) 12.3 15.9 15.3 17.2 Total Assets 27,744 32,640 35,861 40,782 RoIC (%) 21 % 21 % 22 % 23 %
CEPS (Rs) 45.4 48.5 56.3 64.0 Non-cash Working Capital 5,436 222 804 1,392 Core RoIC (%) 21 % 22 % 27 % 28 %
FCFPS (Rs) 20.1 71.4 29.3 36.7 Cash Conv Cycle 40.0 1.4 4.5 6.8 Div Payout (%) 45 % 45 % 45 % 44 %
BVPS (Rs) 136.4 158.8 181.0 207.2 WC Turnover 9.1 261.5 81.3 53.4 P/E 30.6 29.0 24.6 21.3
EBITDAM (%) 16 % 15 % 15 % 15 % FA Turnover 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.3 P/B 7.2 6.2 5.4 4.8
PATM (%) 8 % 7 % 8 % 8 % Net D/E 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 P/FCFF 49.1 13.8 33.7 26.9
Tax Rate (%) 33 % 36 % 34 % 34 % Revenue/Capital Employed 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.7 EV/EBITDA 16.3 14.1 12.3 10.7
Sales Growth (%) 11 % 17 % 13 % 14 % Capital Employed/Equity 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 EV/Sales 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.6
FDEPS Growth (%) 8 % 6 % 18 % 16 % Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 % 1.6 % 1.5 % 1.7 %
TTM P/E vs. 2 yrs. forward EPS growth
TTM EV/EBITDA vs. 2 yrs. forward EBITDA growth
TTM P/B vs. 2 yrs. forward RoE
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-1
8
Sep-1
8
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-1
9
Sep-1
9
Dec
-19
10x
30x
20x
40x
EPS Growth
5x
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
30000
60000
90000
120000
150000
180000
210000
240000
270000
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep-1
4
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep-1
5
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep-1
6
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-
17
Sep-1
7
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-
18
Sep-1
8
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-1
9
Sep-1
9
Dec
-19
2x
4x
8x
18x
22x
EBITDAGrowth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun-1
5
Sep-1
5
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun-1
6
Sep-1
6
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun-1
7
Sep-1
7
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun-1
8
Sep-1
8
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun-1
9
Sep-1
9
Dec
-19
RoE
2x
4x
8x
6x
10x
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 11 of14
Historical Consolidated Financials
P&L (Rs Mn) FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A Balance Sheet (Rs Mn) FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A Cash Flow (Rs Mn) FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A
Revenue 41,154 29,709 44,618 49,660 Equity Capital 254 254 254 254 PBT 3,807 3,491 5,851 6,153
Op. Expenditure 35,446 24,992 37,002 41,795 Reserve 10,981 11,968 15,281 17,077 Depreciation 1,390 1,046 1,543 1,672
EBITDA 5,708 4,717 7,616 7,865 Networth 11,235 12,222 15,536 17,331 Others 514 51 167 65
Depreciation 1,390 1,046 1,543 1,672 Long Term Debt 3,289 2,280 2,315 2,324 Taxes Paid 1,422 1,252 1,705 2,172
EBIT 4,318 3,671 6,073 6,194 Def Tax Liability 1,010 1,180 1,304 1,276 Change in WC 770 -373 -1,212 -645
Interest Expense 579 289 302 219 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Operating C/F 5,058 2,963 4,643 5,072
Other Income 68 108 80 178 Account Payables 3,005 3,442 4,536 4,899 Capex -1,936 -2,319 -2,099 -2,856
PBT 3,807 3,491 5,851 6,153 Other Curr Liabi 4,153 4,194 2,957 1,914 Change in Invest 10 21 16 33
Tax 1,277 1,176 2,058 2,057 Total Liabilities & Equity 22,692 23,318 26,648 27,744 Others 66 117 61 157
PAT bef. MI & Assoc. 2,530 2,314 3,793 4,096 Net Fixed Assets 10,325 11,846 12,625 13,534 Investing C/F -1,860 -2,181 -2,022 -2,666
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Capital WIP 998 682 467 750 Change in Debt -798 200 -1,331 -312
Profit from Assoc. 0 0 0 0 Others 1,256 1,032 778 876 Change in Equity 0 0 0 0
Recurring PAT 2,530 2,314 3,793 4,096 Inventory 4,647 5,579 7,768 6,970 Others -1,798 -2,536 -773 -2,552
Extraordinaires -628 77 0 0 Account Receivables 2,376 2,362 2,756 3,830 Financing C/F -2,596 -2,335 -2,104 -2,865
Reported PAT 3,158 2,238 3,793 4,096 Other Current Assets 1,275 1,535 1,466 1,449 Net change in cash 602 -1,554 518 -459
EPS (Rs) 19.9 18.2 29.9 32.2 Cash 1,815 284 787 335 RoE (%) 24 % 20 % 27 % 25 %
DPS (Rs) 11.2 7.7 15.4 12.3 Total Assets 22,691 23,319 26,647 27,744 RoIC (%) 19 % 16 % 23 % 21 %
CEPS (Rs) 30.9 26.5 42.0 45.4 Non-cash Working Capital 1,140 1,839 4,498 5,436 Core RoIC (%) 20 % 16 % 23 % 21 %
FCFPS (Rs) 28.2 7.7 22.2 20.1 Cash Conv Cycle 10.1 22.6 36.8 40.0 Div Payout (%) 53 % 51 % 60 % 45 %
BVPS (Rs) 88.5 96.2 122.3 136.4 WC Turnover 36.1 16.2 9.9 9.1 P/E 49.5 54.1 33.0 30.6
EBITDAM (%) 14 % 16 % 17 % 16 % FA Turnover 3.6 2.4 3.4 3.5 P/B 11.2 10.3 8.1 7.2
PATM (%) 6 % 8 % 9 % 8 % Net D/E 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 P/FCFF 35.0 128.7 44.5 49.1
Tax Rate (%) 34 % 34 % 35 % 33 % Revenue/Capital Employed 4.1 2.6 3.2 3.3 EV/EBITDA 22.6 27.5 17.0 16.3
Sales growth (%) 5 % -28 % 50 % 11 % Capital Employed/Equity 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 EV/Sales 3.1 4.4 2.9 2.6
FDEPS growth (%) -1 % -9 % 64 % 8 % Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 % 0.8 % 1.5 % 1.2 %
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 12 of14
Equirus Securities
Research Analysts Sector/Industry Email Equity Sales E-mail
Abhishek Shindadkar IT Services [email protected] 91-22-43320643 Vishad Turakhia [email protected] 91-22-43320633
Ashutosh Tiwari Auto, Metals & Mining [email protected] 91-79-61909517 Subham Sinha [email protected] 91-22-43320631
Bharat Celly Healthcare [email protected] 91-79-61909524 Viral Desai [email protected] 91-22-43320635
Depesh Kashyap Mid-Caps [email protected] 91-22-43320671 Viraj Mehta [email protected] 91-22-43320634
Dhaval Dama FMCG, Mid-Caps [email protected] 91-79-61909518 Ruchi Bhadra [email protected] 91-22-43320601
Manoj Gori Consumer Durables [email protected] 91-79-61909523 Cash Dealing Room E-mail
Maulik Patel Oil and Gas [email protected] 91-79-61909519 Ashish Shah [email protected] 91-22-43320662
Pranav Mehta Building Materials [email protected] 91-79-61909514 IleshSavla [email protected] 91-22-43320666
Praful Bohra Healthcare [email protected] 91-22-43320611 Manoj Kejriwal [email protected] 91-22-43320663
Rohan Mandora Banking & Financial Services [email protected] 91-79-61909529 Dharmesh Mehta [email protected] 91-22-43320661
Associates E-mail Sarit Sanyal [email protected] 91-22-43320666
Ankit Choudhary [email protected] 91-79-61909533 Vikram Patil [email protected] 91-22-43320677
Dhairya Dhruv [email protected] 91-79-61909528 Gaurav Mehta [email protected] 91-22-43320680
Harshit Patel [email protected] 91-79-61909522 Compliance Officer E-mail
Meet Chande [email protected] 91-79-61909513 Jay Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909561
Nishant Bagrecha [email protected] 91-79-61909526 Corporate Communications E-mail
Prateeksha Malpani [email protected] 91-79-61909532 MahdokhtBharda [email protected] 91-22-43320647
Ronak Soni [email protected] 91-79-61909525 Quant Analyst
Rushabh Shah [email protected] 91-79-61909520 Kruti Shah [email protected] 91-22-43320632
Shreepal Doshi [email protected] 91-79-61909541 F&O Dealing Room
Varun Baxi [email protected] 91-79-61909527 Kunal Dand [email protected] 91-22-43320678
Vikas Jain [email protected] 91-79-61909531 Dhananjay Tiwari [email protected] 91-22-43320668
Mukesh Jain [email protected] 91-22-43320667
Rating & Coverage Definitions: Absolute Rating • LONG : Over the investment horizon, ATR >= Ke for companies with Free Float market cap >Rs 5 billion and ATR >= 20% for rest of the companies • ADD: ATR >= 5% but less than Ke over investment horizon • REDUCE: ATR >= negative 10% but <5% over investment horizon • SHORT: ATR < negative 10% over investment horizon Relative Rating • OVERWEIGHT: Likely to outperform the benchmark by at least 5% over investment horizon • BENCHMARK: likely to perform in line with the benchmark • UNDERWEIGHT: likely to under-perform the benchmark by at least 5% over investment horizon Investment Horizon Investment Horizon is set at a minimum 3 months to maximum 18 months with target date falling on last day of a calendar quarter. Lite vs. Regular Coverage vs. Spot Coverage We aim to keep our rating and estimates updated at least once a quarter for Regular Coverage stocks. Generally, we would have access to the company and we would maintain detailed financial model for Regular coverage companies. We intend to publish updates on Lite coverage stocks only an opportunistic basis and subject to our ability to contact the management. Our rating and estimates for Lite coverage stocks may not be current. Spot coverage is meant for one-off coverage of a specific company and in such cases, earnings forecast and target price are optional. Spot coverage is meant to stimulate discussion rather than provide a research opinion.
Registered Office:
Equirus Securities Private Limited
Unit No. 1201, 12th Floor, C Wing, Marathon Futurex,
N M Joshi Marg, Lower Parel,
Mumbai-400013.
Tel. No: +91 – (0)22 – 4332 0600
Fax No: +91- (0)22 – 4332 0601
Corporate Office:
3rd floor, House No. 9,
Magnet Corporate Park, Near Zydus Hospital, B/H Intas Sola Bridge,
S.G. Highway Ahmedabad-380054
Gujarat
Tel. No: +91 (0)79 - 6190 9550
Fax No: +91 (0)79 – 6190 9560
Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 13 of14
© 2018 Equirus Securities Private Limited. All rights reserved. For Private Circulation only. This report or any portion hereof may not
be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Equirus Securities Private Limited
Analyst Certification
I, Maulik Patel, author to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify
that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Disclosures
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(Reg. No.INP000005216) and as a Depository Participant of the Central Depository Services (India) Limited (Reg. No.IN-DP-324-2017). There are no disciplinary actions taken by any regulatory authority against ESPL.
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Supreme Industries Ltd. Absolute – REDUCE Relative – Underweight 3% ATR in 14 Months
October 30, 2018 Analyst: Maulik Patel ([email protected]) (+91-8128694110) Page 14 of14
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Disclosure of Interest statement for the subject Company Yes/No If Yes, nature of such interest
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