3rd June,2014 For Private Circulation Only
MAJOR INDICES
Index Close Previous Close Change % Change
DJIA 16743.63 16717.17 26.46 0.16
NASDAQ 4237.2 4242.62 -5.42 -0.13
HANGSN 9950.12 9943.27 6.85 0.07
NIKKIE 6864.1 6844.51 19.59 0.29
DAX 23081.65 23081.65 0 0.00
FTSE 14935.92 14632.38 303.54 2.07
SENSEX 24684.85 24217.34 467.51 1.93
NIFTY 7331.2 7230 101.2 1.40
News & Development
German Prelim CPI declined 0.1 percent in May from -0.2 percent in April.
Europe Final Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.2 levels in May from 52.5 marks in April.
United Kingdom (UK) Manufacturing PMI fell to 57.0 levels in May from 57.3 marks in April.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 levels in May from 54.9 Marks in April.
China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 levels in May from 54.8 Marks in April.
China’s HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 levels in May from 49.7 Marks in April.
A potential shortfall in investment in production in the Middle East could create a $15 spike in the oil price by 2035, the energy arm
of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said. (Source : Reuters)
The world will need to be a total of $40 trillion invested in energy supply and $8 trillion on energy efficiency by 2035 to meet
growing demand and falling output from mature sources of energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report. (Source :
Reuters)
Russia and Ukraine agreed on Monday to consider a proposal for Kiev to pay off a multi-billion-dollar gas bill that has soured
relations between Moscow and Kiev, while fighting raged all day in eastern Ukraine. (Source : Reuters)
Investors pulled $4 billion from U.S. commodity exchange-traded products in the first five months of the year, extending last year's
negative trend even as the pace of the redemptions from gold slowed, Thomson Reuters' Lipper data showed on Monday. (Source :
Reuters)
China's northeastern port of Qingdao has halted shipments of aluminium and copper due to an investigation by authorities, causing
concern among bankers and trade houses financing the metals, trading and warehousing sources said on Monday. (Source : Reuters)
Gross natural gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. states in March jumped 1.6 percent from February to a record 76.68 billion cubic
feet per day, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Friday. (Source : Reuters)
Page 2
Commodity Daily
Gold
A spot gold price decreased by 0.53 percent in Yesterday’s trading session on the back of strength in Dollar Index. Further, market participants expect US Federal Reserve to continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace added downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, strong economic data from US and upbeat equity markets led to decline in demand for safe haven. However, geopolitical tensions cushioned sharp decline in prices..
In the Indian Markets, gold prices fell by 0.51 percent in yesterday’s trading session taking cues from the Intl Spot gold prices. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices. Gold prices touched an intraday low of 25690/10gms and closed at
25749/10gms.
Outlook
We expect spot gold prices to trade on the negative note on the back of strength in Dollar Index. Further, market participants expect US Federal Reserve to continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, optimistic global market sentiments and strong economic data from US may act as a negative factor for the prices, as the demand for safe haven may go down. However, geopolitical tensions may cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian Market, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices.
PERFORMANCE Open High Low Close % Change
MCX Gold 25834 25889 25690 25749 -0.51
International Spot Gold
1250.54 1250.54 1240.69 1244 -0.53
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
Technical Outlook
Strategy Support Resistance
MCX Gold Aug Sell on Rallies 25450/25600 25900/26020
Silver A spot Silver price increased by 0.16 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with strong economic data from US. Further, upside in Base Metal prices supported Silver to trade in green. However, expectations among the market participants that the US Federal Reserve may continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace and weakness in Spot gold prices capped sharp upside in the prices. In the Indian Markets, silver prices rose by 0.10 percent taking cues from Intl spot Silver prices. Further, depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported prices. Silver prices touched an intraday high of 39859/Kg and closed at 39626/Kg
Outlook We expect spot Silver prices to trade on the mixed note. Strength in Dollar Index and expectations among the market participants that the US Federal Reserve may continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace may add downside pressure on the prices. Additionally, weakness in Spot Gold prices may act as a negative factor for the prices. Whereas, strong economic data from US, rise in risk appetite in the global markets and upside in base metal pack may support Silver to trade in green. In the Indian Market, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices.
PERFORMANCE
Open High Low Close % Change
MCX Silver
39657 39859 39465 39626 0.10
International Spot Silver 18.79 18.87 18.62 18.71 0.16
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
Technical Outlook
Strategy Support Resistance
MCX Silver July
Sell on Rallies 39000/39450 39900/40250
Page 3
Commodity Daily
Crude Oil NYMEX Crude oil prices decreased by 0.23 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of strength in Dollar Index coupled with the rise in OPEC oil production. Further, expectations among the market participants that the US Federal Reserve may continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace added downside pressure on the prices. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, strong economic data from US and rise in risk appetite in the global markets cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian Markets, a price declined by 0.69 percent taking cues from NYMEX Crude oil prices. However, sharp fall was prevented due to depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Crude oil prices touched an intraday low of 6059/bbl and closed at 6064/bbl.
Outlook
We expect NYMEX crude oil prices to trade on the negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with rise in OPEC oil production. Further, expectations among the market participants that the US Federal Reserve may continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace may add downside pressure on the prices. However, rise in risk appetite in the global markets along with the strong economic data from US and China may cushion sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian Market, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may prevent sharp downside in the prices.
PERFORMANCE
Open High Low Close Change
MCX Crude Oil 6115 6133 6059 6064 -0.69
International Crude Oil
102.92 103.35 102.1 102.47 -0.23
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
Technical Outlook
Strategy Support Resistance
MCX Crude Oil June
Sell below 6070
6020/6055 6100/6135
Natural Gas
A NYMEX Natural Gas price increased by 1.54 percent in Yesterday’s trading session on the forecast of hot weather in short term and cooler weather in long term. However, strength in DX capped sharp rise in the prices. In the Indian Markets, a Natural gas price rose by 0.77 percent in yesterday’s trading session taking cues from NYMEX prices along with the depreciation in the Indian rupee. Natural Gas prices touched an intraday high of 273.7/mmbtu and closed at 273.3/ mmbtu.
Outlook We expect NYMEX Natural gas prices to trade on the positive note on the back of colder weather forecast for longer term. However, strength in DX may prevent sharp rise in the prices. In the Indian Markets depreciation in the Indian may support prices to trade in green.
PERFORMANCE
Open High Low Close Change
MCX Natural Gas
271.9 273.7 268.6 273.3 0.77
International Natural Gas
4.551 4.62 4.522 4.612 1.54
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
\
Technical Outlook
Strategy Support Resistance
MCX Natural Gas June
Sideways 267/270 275/279
Page 4
Commodity Daily
3rd June, 2014 For Private Circulation Only
PERFORMANCE
Open High Low Close Change
COPPER MCX 411.7 416.85 411.7 415.95 1.25
COPPER LME 6860.5 6935.5 6859.25 6926.75 1.22
LEAD MCX 123.9 125.65 123.65 125.55 1.45
LEAD LME 2099 2126.75 2092.75 2122.5 1.46
ZINC MCX 121.75 124.05 121.7 123.9 1.47
ZINC LME 2053.75 2086 2049 2085.75 1.60
NICKEL MCX 1148.4 1159.6 1144.6 1152.5 0.69
NICKEL LME 19299 19575 19203 19440 0.73
ALUMINIUM MCX 108.25 109.3 108.15 109 0.88
ALUMINIUM LME 1832 1860 1832 1850 1.13
Base Metals Base Metals on LME traded on positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Further, strong manufacturing data from China and US fuelled the expectations that the demand for base metal may go up. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped due to strength in DX.
LME Copper increased by 1.22 percent on the back of positive economic data from US and China along with the decline in LME inventories. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported prices to trade in green. However, strength in DX along with the expectations among the market participants that the US Federal Reserve may continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace capped sharp rise in the prices.
In the Indian Markets copper prices rose by 1.25 percent in yesterday’s trading session taking cues from LME prices along with depreciation in the Indian Rupee. MCX Copper touched an intraday High of 416.85/kg and closed at 415.95/kg
Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade on the positive note on the back of risk appetite in the global markets along with the decline in LME inventories. Further, strong manufacturing data from China and US fuelled the expectations that the demand for base metal may go up. However, strength in DX along with the expectations among the market participants that the US Federal Reserve may continue reducing its stimulus package at same pace may cap sharp rise in the prices. In the Indian Market, depreciation in the Indian Rupee may support prices to trade in green.
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research
Technical Outlook
Strategy Support Resistance
MCX Copper June
Buy on Dips 409/412 415/418
MCX Lead June Buy on Dips
123.6/124.5 126/126.4
MCX Zinc June Buy on Dips
122.3/123 124.4/124.8
MCX Nickel June Buy on Dips
1125/1140 1160/1175
MCX Aluminium June
Buy on Dips 107.7/108.1 109.3/110
Source: Reuters & Sushil Research.
Page 5
Commodity Daily
Global Data
Data Country Date Time Actual Expected Previous Impact
Non-Manufacturing PMI China 03/06/2014 6:30am 55.5 - 54.8 High
HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
China 03/06/2014 7:15pm 49.4 49.7 49.7 High
Nationwide HPI m/m UK 03/06/2014 11:30am - 0.7% 1.2% Medium
Spanish Unemployment Change
Europe 03/06/2014 12:30pm - - -11.6K Medium
Construction PMI UK 03/06/2014 2:00pm - 61.2 60.8 High
CPI Flash Estimate y/y Europe 03/06/2014 2:30pm - 0.7% 0.7% High
Unemployment Rate Europe 03/06/2014 2:30pm - 11.8% 11.8% Medium
Factory Orders m/m US 03/06/2014 7:30pm - 0.6% 1.1% Medium
For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000 Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Saif Mukadam
Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]
Research Analyst [email protected]
WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN.
STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER
This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its
accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any
transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors
should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated wi th such investments and
for their results.
Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its
connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short pos ition in the commodities
mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication
thereof.
This data sheet is for private circulation only. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We
shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein
at their own risk.
Sushil Global Commodities Private Limited Member: NCDEX, FMC Regn.No. 00304 | MCX, FMC Regn.No. 12240
Genius, 4th
Road, Khar (W), Mumbai – 400 052.
Tel.: 022-6698 0636 Fax: 022-6698 0606 | E-mail: [email protected] | www.sushilfinance.com
Recommended