TERRORISTS' TARGET SELECTION
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Terrorists'Target Selection
C. J. M. Drake
First published in Great Britain 1998 by
MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the wodd
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 978-1-349-40442-1 ISBN 978-0-230-37467-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230374676
First published in the United States of America 1998 by
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York. N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-21197-4
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Drake, C. J. M., 1962-Terrorists' target selection I C.J.M. Drake. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-21197-4 (cloth) I. Terrorism-Philosophy. 2. Terrorism-Psychological a~pects. 3. Victims of terrorism. I. Title. HV6431.D73 1997 303.6'25--dc21 97-38269
CIP
©C. J. M. Drake 1998
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without wrinen permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced. copied or transmined save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permiuing limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. 90 Totlenham Coun Road, London WI P 9HE.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and ci vii claims for damages.
The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 07 06 OS 04 03 02 0 I 00 99 98
In memory of my father
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Contents
List o( Figures VIlI
List or Tables IX
A ck 11 owledgem ('II ts X
List of Abbrel'iatio/ls XI
Introduction
2 Terrorist Typologies 5
3 Ideology 16
4 Strategy 35
5 Tactics 54
6 Capabilities 73
7 Target Protection 9K
8 The Security Environment 120
9 External Factors 144
10 Decision-ma ki ng 163
II Target Selection 175
Notes 183
Bibliography 243 Index 267
vii
List of Figures
2.1 A simple model of terrorism 4.1 Provisional IRA: logical strategy 4.2 Provisional IRA terrorist strategy 4.3 PIRA rationale for attacking British soldiers 10.1 Provisional IRA command structure 11.1 Constraints on terrorist target selection 11.2 Process of terrorist target se kction
Vlll
8 37 37 44
166 176 180
List of Tables
3.1 Killings in Northern Ireland perpetrated by Loyalist and Republican groups, ] 969-] 993 32
3.2 Categories of people killed, wounded or kidnapped by communist terrorist groups in Italy and West Germany 33
4.1 Lethal mass casualty bomb attacks in Italy against civilian targets, 1 <J69- 1993 48
4.2 Civilians killed by terrorist groups in Algeria in 1994 50 6. I Relative size and rate of fire of machine-guns,
1884-1970 94 7. I Security force deaths in Northern Ireland. 1970-1993 113 7.2 British Army fatalities and fatal incidents caused by
Irish republican groups, 1970-1993 ] 14 7.3 British Army fatalities and fatal incidents caused by
Irish republican groups, ] 970-93 ] 15 8. I Levels of terrorist and security force activi ties in
Northern Ireland, 1980-1989 130 8.2 Police officers killed by terrorists as a percentage of
terrorist killings 137 9.1 Categories of opinion relating to the Provisional IRA
and the Red Army Faction 146 10.] Location of fatalities across the parliamentary
constituencies in Northern Ireland, July 13, 1969 to July ]2, 1989 173
ix
Acknowledgements
In the course of my research I have incurred numerous debts. First and foremost my family has provided the moral and material support without which I could not have coped. For this and for much else I am profoundly grateful.
The University of St Andrews, the David Russell Trust, and the School of History and International Relations at the University of St Andrews, all provided financial assistance without which any question of my carrying out research would have been purely academic.
I would like to thank my Ph.D. supervisor, Professor Paul Wilkinson, for his forbearance and guidance, and several other members of the Department of International Relations at St Andrews for their encouragement. I am also indebted to the library staffs at the universities of St Andrews, Aberdeen, Bradford, the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and the Linenhall Library in Belfast.
It is invidious to single out people for friendship, but amongst several others I would particularly thank Robin and Ailsa (and Katie), Mike, and Magnus for tolerating me as a Departmental colleague, and Antonio, Joao, Shewn, and Luis for their friendship and forbearance as fiatmates. I am particularly grateful to Bruce and Fiona for their friendship and hospitality, and for Bruce's indefatigable proofreading and commentary on my work. To Jim and Maggie I would like to add particular thanks.
In keeping with tradition, any mistakes in this work are my responsibility.
x
List of Abbreviations
Abbreviations for groups, organisations, posts and publications. The countries listed here refer to where these originated. where they are based, or where they mainly operate.
Please note that it has become conventional in the literature to drop foreign accents. For the most part I have followed this convention throughout.
17N
ACDEGAM
AD AIS
ALF ALN
ANUC
AP/RN
B2J BR BR/PCC
CCC
CIA
DC Dev Sol EOKA
ETA
Epanastaiki Organosi 17 Noemvri (Revolutionary Organisation 17th November). Greece. AsociacioTl de Campesionos y Gandcros dcl Magdelena Medio (Peasants and Ranchers of the Magdelcna Medio). Colombia. Action Directe (Direct Action). France. Armel' islamique du salut (Islamic Salvation Army). Algeria. Animal Liberation Front. United Kingdom. Acao Libertadora Naeional (Action for National Liberation). Brazil. Asociacion Nacional de Usuarios Campesinos (National Association of Peasant Users). Colombia. All PhoblachtlRepublican News. Ireland/United Kingdom. Bewegung 2 Juni (June 2nd Movement). Germany. Brigate Rosse (Red Brigades). Italy. Partito Comunista Combattente (Fighting Communist Party). Italy. Cellules Communistes Combattantes (Fighting Communist Cells). Belgium. Central Intelligence Agency. United States of America. Democrazia Cristiana (Christian Democrats). Italy. Devrimci Sol (Revolutionary Left). Turkey. Ethniki Organosis Kypriakou Agoniston (National Organisation of Cypriot Fighters). Cyprus. Euzkadi ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Liberty). Spain/France.
Xl
xii
FARC
FBI FIS
FLN
GAL
GIA
GSG9
HRU INLA
JRA LTTE MIS
MI6
MAS
MK
OAS
OIRA
OP PCC
PCI
PIRA
PFLP
PFLP-GC
List of Abbrel'i(/tioIlS
Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), Federal Bureau of Investigation. United States of America. Front Islamique du Salut (Islamic Salvation Front). Algeria. Front de Liberation Nationale (National Liberation Front). Algeria. Gruppos Antiterroristas de Liberacion (Anti-terrorist Liberation Group). Spain/France Groupes Islamique Armee (Armed Islamic Group). Algeria. Grenzchutzgruppe 9 (Border Protection Unit 9). Germany. Hostage Rescue Unit. Irish National Liberation Army. United Kingdom/ Ireland. Japanese Red Army. Japan. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Sri Lanka. Security Service (formally Military Intelligence section S). United Kingdom. Secret Intelligence Service (formally Military Intelligence section 6). United Kingdom. Muerte a Secuestradores (Death to Kidnappers). Colomhia. Umkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation). South Africa. Organisation Armee Secrete (Secret Army Organisation). Algeria and France. Official Irish Republican Army. United Kingdom/ Ireland. Observation post. Partitio Comunista Combattente (Fighting Communist Party). Italy. Partito Comunista Italiano (Italian Communist Party). Provisional Irish Republican Army. United Kingdom/I re land. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Israel/Jordan. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command. Israel/Jordan.
PKK
PL PLO RAF
RIR RUC RZ SAS SL SLA
UDA UDR UP UVF VCP WGH
Lists or Abbreviations XllI
Partiye Karkaran-e Kurdistan (Kurdistan Workers Party). Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria. Prima Linea (Front Line). Italy. Palestinian Liberation Organisation. Israel!.lordan. Rotc Armee Fraktion (Red Army Faction). Germany. Royal Irish Regiment. United Kingdom. Royal Ulster Constabulary. United Kingdom. Rote Zellen (Revolutionary Cells). Gcrmany. Special Air Service. United Kingdom. Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path). Peru. Symbionese Liberation Army. United States of America. Ulstcr Defence Association. United Kingdom. Ulster Defence Regiment. United Kingdom. Union Patriotica (Patriotic Union). Colombia. Ulster Volunteer Force. United Kingdom. Vehicle check-points. Wehrsport Gruppe Hoffmann (Hoffman Military Sports Group). Germany.